Here's what I'd like to know: Since when are the New York Yankees in any position to play hardball with the Twins? Given the pitching situation in New York, and given the fact that this is a team that is now in the (for them) desperate position of playing second-fiddle to the Red Sox, would you not think that the Twins should have all the leverage in a deal for Johan Santana?
You have to imagine that the new Yankee regime would be willing to pull out all the stops to get Santana, and if they're not, they for damn sure should be, or fuck 'em.
There are all sorts of reasons to be wary about any deal with either New York or Boston. Because of the high profiles of the two east coast Goliaths, their prospects tend to be over-hyped in comparison to those of almost any other team. What do you really know about Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury? Or how about Melky Cabrera?
My guess is probably not enough. Ellsbury was dynamite in the postseason, and we heard the Hughes hype all last season. But what sort of players are they? Relatively young players, which means relatively unproven players. Based on his minor league numbers, Hughes looks like he could become a dominant pitcher. He's a big kid, long and lean. I like him, but as with any 21-year-old pitcher I'd be concerned about injuries, at least until I get more of a chance to watch him pitch.
I'll admit that Ellsbury is the guy I'd most like to see included in a deal with the Red Sox, but that's based almost entirely on his performance in the playoffs. The guy is a burner, seems to know how to get on base, and he looks like a more-than-solid outfielder. Despite the power he flashed in the postseason, however, there isn't much in his minor league record to indicate he's going to be a reliable home run threat. He's also 24 years old.
I don't want Melky Cabrera, I know that much. And I don't want Coco Crisp.
The main virtues of the other guys whose names have been floating around is that they are --at least for the time being-- cheap. And, of course, they have potential. It would be nice, however, if the Twins could get at least one guy included in a Santana package who is something of a proven commodity.
That may not happen. Nothing may happen. And I'd certainly rather see nothing happen than watch the Twins knuckle under to Hank Steinbrenner's demands. I hope that won't happen, and I don't think that will happen. I'm pretty sure Bill Smith knows he's in the driver's seat.
The dream scenario, I think, would be for the Mets to swoop in and steal some thunder from both the Yankees and the Sox, but for that to happen I'm pretty sure they're going to have to be willing to cough up Jose Reyes.
That's a deal I'd love to see happen.
As far as the Tampa Bay trade, I'll just say I like it just fine, even if the Twins are now back out there trying to convince somebody to give them a pitcher with Garza's potential. In the meantime, I'll take Delmon Young and his purported baggage, and I'll wager that before Torii's three years into his contract with the Angels Bill Smith is going to look like a genius. It's not easy for me to forget all those years I watched Torii flailing at fastballs in the dirt and up in his eyes, and, defensive magnificence aside, he was a long time delivering on his promise. The money the Angels threw at him is insane.
All the same, I'll miss Hunter. He was a good guy, always accessible and good for a quote. I don't know that I buy the notion that he was some sort of clubhouse leader, but I do know that with both Hunter and Santana gone, Minnesota's clubhouse will have a huge charisma void.
And, finally, speaking of a charisma void: what the hell is up with Carlos Silva? I haven't even heard much in the way of rumors surrounding The Jackal.
I agree that none of the trade proposals we've heard are particularly satisfying, so I'm not unhappy that Smith is holding out. Still, he'll need to pull the trigger at some point, since the money to resign him is, apparently, not forthcoming. The problem with the Hughes deal is that it's a ton of eggs in that one basket, since Cabrera is marginal.
However, I disagree with Brad about getting someone "proven" back. (As an aside, I think that might be my least favorite word in the baseball lexicon. Sourdough needs "proving," not baseball players). I'm not exactly sure what "proven" means, but if it means someone who has been in the majors and successful for 2+ years, I don't think it's in the Twins interest to center a deal around that player. I'd rather, for example, have a deal centered around Hughes than a deal without Hughes, centered on Robbie Cano, who I suppose meets the "proven" standard.
"Proven" appears to equate with "expensive" and "closer to free agency," and while there's nobody more irritated than me when Uncle Carl refuses to crowbar open that wallet, it's clear that the value for the Twins is in years under club control, so whatever risk is inherent in the "unproven" player, it's mitigated by the extra cheap seasons. And in fact, that appears to be the general thinking among execs these days; prospects and guys with <1 service time are guarded with the zeal of a farmer whose lost one too many chickens. As much as I value such guys, I wonder if the pendulum hasn't swung too far in terms of protecting these players.
But it makes sense, when you consider the salary structure of baseball. Getting quality production from pre-arb players is just massively valuable, since the market salaries for that production is anywhere from 20-50 times higher. Consider, for example, Justin Morneau, AL MVP, 2006. What would that season have cost on the open market? $15 million? With a ton of added risk, since to buy that on the market would require a multi-year committment of those dollars, during some of which you wouldn't get that production (see, for example, Carlos Delgado's contract). The Twins paid less than $500K.
What continues to shock me is that, even in a sport absolutely awash in money, teams continue to actually pay free agents what they do. While I understand that there simply isn't enough supply to meet demand, which drives up prices, it's patently obvious that, in the vast majority of cases, players reach free agency, and thus earn market rates, after their peak. The Twins got quite a bit out of Hunter for roughly $40M in salary--paying an average of $4-5 million per year, and got him through age 31, which in most cases includes the bulk of a player's bets seasons. Now, he's going to get $18M per for his 30s. It's just a radically different equation once a player hits the market.
Teams can clearly afford to pay, and I'm all about the money going to the talent, but it still amazes me that teams do pay for non-elite talent at these rates. A guy like A-Rod or maybe Beltran, who reach free agency at the dawning of his prime is the exception.
I'll stop here, though I could discuss this topic forever. Brad, my only complaint is that I wish you would post more; it seems to stimulate me, especially in winter, when I don't have nightly games to distract me from my demons.
If you've ever spent one minute -- one minute! -- focusing on Garza's maddening spitting mannerisms, you would automatically have become a huge fan of his departure. As 07 went on, it became increasingly difficult to enjoy watching a Twins game in which he was participating.
I can take comfort in assuming whatever comes next for me personally, however horrific, shameful, or unsatisfying it might be, this much will indubitably true: It will not be as bad as it would have been if I'd had to watch that fucker and his perpetual infinitesimal spits over the course of his entire career.
I am not a fan of any of the rumored trades. I think the twins should just keep Santana for now. Maybe during the season they can trade him or if they are winning resign him. Liriano/Santana would be pretty nasty. If Liriano is healthy.