Timberwolves Resign Craig Smith
This thoroughly minor signing justifiably barely caused a flutter league-wide in the NBA, but smart Wolves fans have a right to wonder why it happened. The Rhino is an undersized power forward on a ballclub that just drafted an undersized center and traded for a journeyman legit center to pair alongside their star power forward who frequently was forced to play out of position in the pivot last season. So, are we going to see Smith and Jefferson form a disastrous frontcourt again this season, or has the Rhino been signed to a 2-year deal to be 10-minute backup at the 4? The money is reportedly right, less than $4 million over two years, which inevitably leads to speculation that Smith is a placeholder as the Wolves continue preparing themselves to be a major player in the 2010 free agent market.
Forgetting for a moment that big time free agents almost never come to this frozen tundra, the more immediate concern is, what happened to Ryan Gomes being this team's top priority among its own free agents this summer? The trade for 6-8 Mike Miller and last year's drafting of 6-9 Corey Brewer coupled with the signing of the 6-7 Smith doesn't leave a lot of options for the 6-7 Gomes, who swings between the power and small forward positions. All Gomes did last season was do whatever was asked of him without complaint, while posting the second-best season, behind Jefferson, of anyone on the roster. He merits a $4-5 million payday and is exactly the kind of player who won't embarrass a team that signs him for 3-4 years.
The devil's advocacy position is that neither Smith nor Gomes fits into the Wolves' long range plans; that unlike Gomes, who will draw more interest, Smith is a cheap placeholder and that a team counting on a nucleus of Jefferson/Love/Foye/Brewer, and perhaps Miller and McCants, doesn't have need for shorty 4's or even swing 3-4's. I understand this, although it makes laughable Kevin McHale's frequent argument that people get too hung up on position at the expense of skill set and savvy. Ryan Gomes is a basketball player, the embodiment of that dictum; he makes others around him better in myriad little ways. Craig Smith is a specialist--an occasional nightmare matchup for teams in the low block--in a specialty that is neither particularly unique nor frequently required, meaning there is high supply and low demand.
The probable good news is that Gomes may be eligible for the Kevin Garnett supersized bonus package: You get shunned in Minnesota only to land in Boston, where your services are recognized, properly invoked and handsomely rewarded in terms of both wins and dollars. There may be someone else on the market the Celts perceive as a Posey replacement, but I don't know who. Gomes is not the defender Posey is, nor as money-certain in the clutch from long-range, but he's younger, would be slightly cheaper, and is a fan favorite in Boston from his two years there.
Brand Goes to Philly; Camby Lands With the Clips
Let's start with my minority opinion that Marcus Camby is a more valuable basketball player than Elton Brand. The market has obviously said otherwise--Brand signed a 5-year, $80 million deal with the Sixers, spurning a Clipper franchise that would have topped those numbers, while Camby is getting a mere $20 million over the next two years and was just given away for a second-round draft choice by the Nuggets. But that's because even NBA general managers apparently undervalue defense in this league. Marcus Camby was named the league's best defender two years ago. He is just a whisker behind Tyson Chandler as the best defensive center in basketball. And Nuggets gave him away because they didn't want to pay the luxury tax!!
How fucking stupid can the Denver management be? I get it that the Nuggets laid a giant egg last season and don't want to lose a ton of money on a team that isn't going anywhere. But to scapegoat Camby for this is asinine. What, you say Camby isn't scapegoated, he's just the one guy on the roster whose salary could be unloaded? Well then why is coach George Karl still around--wasn't he the guy who couldn't get this squad full of superstar contracts to play a lick of defense (aside from Camby, who led the NBA with 3.61 blocks per game to go with his 13 rebounds and 3.3 assists)? And why did Denver management explain they were dumping Camby to clear cap space to eventually sign free agents like chucklehead JR Smith, he of the $50 hops and 10-cent brain?
Had Camby been kept on the squad this year, his ten mil would have been half of what Allen Iverson will make, more than four million less than both Melo and K-Mart will draw, and about $320,000 more than Nene will "earn." If I was a Nugs fan, I would be screaming bloody murder. You lose Camby but you keep Karl and the rest of the malingerers who sleepwalked through the season at the defensive end of the court? You're seriously thinking that JR Smith is the key to your future? You have a $10 million trade exception for a year (about the only worthwhile thing received in the deal) but have the increasingly suspect Melo as your cornerstone, Iverson coming off the books at the end of the season, and the often-injured Nene and scrub Stephen Hunter as your centers alongside the often-injured K-Mart on the front line.
If Karl is still around by New Year's Day 2009, I'll be amazed.
But back to Camby versus Brand. I've long admired Brand's work ethic and the way his integrity saw the Clips through some very lean years, which makes his apparent bait-and-switch with his former ballclub all the more ironic after the team, at his urging, had gone out and signed Baron Davis. Folks who favor Brand over Camby can point to him being a rare 20/10 career man after nine seasons in the league, and five years younger than Camby to boot.
I think Camby, despite their huge age difference, will be more valuable than Brand in two years' time. Because of Camby's early history with injuries, he actually has fewer total NBA minutes than Brand--23,500 for EB; 21,301 for Camby. And Camby is getting better with age, setting career-highs in blocks, rebounds, and assists last season. Over the past three years he's never grabbed fewer than 11.7 rebounds per game nor blocked fewer than 3.3 shots per game. By contrast, if we eliminate last year for Brand, who ruptured his achilles tendon and sat out all but 8 games, over his three previous (healthy) seasons, he grabbed 10 rebounds per game once (and then exactly 10.0), never blocked more than 2.5 shots per game, and registered fewer steals and assists than Camby. The only place Brand has it all over Camby is on offense. Brand's 20.3 career average is nearly double Camby's 10.7, and his shooting percentage is 50.5 versus Camby's 46.7.
But what's harder to find, points in the paint or interior D? What's a harder position to fill, center or power forward? And who has the better shot at being injury-free the next few years, the 6-7, 254 bull coming off a significant achilles injury who specializes in low-block offense or the 6-11, 235 shot-swatter who gets his few points mostly on mid-range jumpers? Camby is a young 34; Brand an old 29. The Clippers made out like bandits on this exchange, paying $6 million less and with less long-term obligation, for a better player.
Yes, Camby is more redundant on a team that already has a legit center in Chris Kamen. Teams would be smart to try to run on a Clips team that sports a front line of Kamen/Camby/Thornton with the defensively challenged Baron Davis at the point and perhaps rookie Eric Gordon on the wing. But here's a trade proposal I think would be great for both clubs: Camby and Cuttino Mobley to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion. The Matrix would be a perfect fit between Kamen and Thorton, provide Davis and Gordon (and Thorton) with a dyamite running mate, and be the jack of defenders he was in Phoenix. Granted, Marion's weird unhappiness with the perfect situation he was given in Phoenix, and at an inflated salary, is troubling in terms of him being a veteran leader in LA, and a contract agreement (or a sign and trade after an extension by Miami) would have to be worked out. But with Davis/Marion/Kamen as your nucleus and Eric Gordon and perhaps Deandre Jordan in your future, the Clips could make some noise in the tough Western Conference.
Meanwhile, Miami would have Camby to go with Wade and Beasley, a perfect complement. Those who think the Heat are (or should) be building slow and sure have a lot more confidence in Wade's ability to absorb punishment without future injury than I do. No, Miami should be in a win-soon mode, and putting a leviathan like Camby in the pivot and Wade and Beasley (and Mobley, don't forget) on the wings is a nice little recipe for success. Just a thought.
Posey Makes the Hornets Favorites in the West
The best way to describe James Posey to fans in New Orleans is that he's the anti-Bonzi Wells; a guy whose game is always better than his stats, and whose results are almost always better than the process you see before your eyes. Posey isn't pretty--well, unless he's making like the heir to Robert Horry on those big-time treys--but the kind of defense and rugged physicality he brings to the court isn't meant to be pretty. He fits in so smoothly with Tyson Chandler and David West that it is tempting to think about bringing Peja Stojakovic off the bench as a 6th man of the year candidate. The ideal signing, and, if not for "Camby for a second round draft pick," the coup of the off-season acquisitions.
Telfair to sign
Posted on July 21st, 2008 – 11:48 PM
By Jerry Zgoda
The Wolves now have two point guards, not just one, after the team today reached agreement on a multi-year deal with unrestricted free agent Sebastian Telfair.
Telfair’s agent, Andy Miller (yes, that Andy Miller, KG’s agent), confirmed the agreement Monday night, which probably will be announced on Tuesday. He would not reveal years or money, but the Wolves declined to make Telfair a one-year qualifying offer because it would have guaranteed him $3.5 million next season.
Until now, Randy Foye was the team’s only point guard under contract.
Miller said he and his client are “very excited for the opportunity to finish what we started” and said Telfair wants to get the Wolves back to the playoffs for the first time since his other client led the Wolves to the Western Conference finals in 2004.
Craig Smith signed a two-year deal on Thursday. Now Telfair’s deal is done. Ryan Gomes remains unsigned (so does Chris Richard) in negotiations that have been, and might turn out to be, the most difficult to complete.
Now, I suppose we can stop hearing about Marion Chalmers. It would have been problematic if we had not signed Telfair, but I would have much preferred Telfair to Chalmers as the backup PG going into the season. For the third PG Wittman wants on the roster, is Livingston still available? Or, for the third PG and 15th spot on the roster will we probably get a player like Jeter.
1. Foye (PG)
2. Telfair (PG)
3. McCants(SG)
4. Carney (SG)
5. Brewer(SG/SF)
6. Miller(SG/SF)
7. Smith(PF)
8. Cardinal(PF)
8. Love(PF/C)
9. Jefferson(PF/C)
10. Madsen(PF/C)
11. Collins(C)
12. Booth (C)
Remaining to be signed
13. Chris Richards
14. Ryan Gomes
15. 3rd PG
I was pleased to see Telfair re-signed, though I haven't seen any details on the length/amount of his new contract. Hopefully it is not some kind of bloated Markoesque thing. I'm assuming the Wolves have gotten better about that though, since they didn't want to give him the guaranteed $3.5m.
I have to think Gomes is probably gone given the other guys we've signed. I would have kept him rather than Smith (I concur with the assessment that another undersized PF is not what the Wolves need) but whatever, the team obviously feels otherwise.
Now, on to Shaun Livingston! I really think he is worth taking a flyer on; since the team is still lousy it's no real loss if he is a bust, but if he comes back to anywhere close to the level he was before his injury we'll have a real jewel of a PG on our hands.
Larry Bird has said he has talked to Kevin McHale recently about trades. The Pacers are rumored to still want another big man and McHale wants a versatile guard with height.
One would assume, based on a roster, that a Jason Collins for Marquis Daniels contract could work. Unfortunately the Wolves would lose their only 7-footer on the roster. Both guys have expiring contracts.
I'm hoping the Wolves sign Gomes to a reasonable 2-3 year contract and Richards to a one-year minimum deal. I wouldn't trade Collins and I'd invite every available PG to training camp to compete for the 3rd PG spot before I would commit any money on a flyer for Livingston. He's intriguing, but how much money would he command. If hes willing to come to camp and play for a contract - then hes worth a look.
I only u-tubed it, and I could not see it more than once. If only because I would cringe and shut my eyes everytime he broke free for a Love outlet pass - I'm not sure I'd ever get used to watching Livingston play every night. Dang, he almost ruined for me watching Brewer and those pogo stick legs hes got. The outlet pass to gazelle-like 1-3 players for fast breaks has never seemed so dangerous.
Makes you wish for low-top tennis shoes and no ankle braces so, you'd only have to suffer through utube replays of turning ankles over rather than the knee...I can't even write it, its so painful.
I got this from the Sacromento B -
The Clippers still like him and have interest in re-signing Livingston and seeing the investment through, but probably only at the minimum of $854,957. Maybe another clubs tops that by giving a second season as a team option, but no way anyone commits serious for a guy with that injury and that much comeback still ahead. L.A. hasn't even been able to see him play two days in a row and can't even say for sure whether he'll be ready to play by December or January.
But still: 23 when training camps open, 6-7, point guard, defense, 46.3 percent.
I like Gomes and hope that he is re-signed by the Wolves. One point against Boston signing him is that they are going to be well over the luxury tax mark, so if they sign Gomes for $4-5 million, it would cost their owner $8-10 million for this coming season. Boston has played it cheap with their free agents not being re-signed and not being willing to pay Tyronn Lue and others.
Looks like Boston just spent money on their own free agents (Eddie House and Tony Allen) and used up half of their mid-level exception slot.
From the Boston Herald (via Hoopshype page) :
Tony Allen and Eddie House are staying in the fold.
According to Danny Ainge, the Celtics have agreed to terms with each on two-year contracts.
Ainge would not be specific on the financial figures, but according to a source, both are being paid in the mid-$2 million range.
In the case of House, the money is roughly half the mid-level exception of $5.585 million.
Um Britt,"between Ty Chandler and MARK West"? And Camby is pretty injury riddled himself averaging about 63 games a season..And guess what,he's played in 79 and 70 games in the past two seasons..Regression to the mean,anyone??
PP--
Thanks I changed it to David West. I never know whether to make corrections and thus have people who suggested corrections look like the outlier to new readers or simply leave as is.
As for the rest of it, your post is a perfect example of how people can use stats to say anything they want. How about this, instead: Camby was "injury riddled" his first seven seasons (although less than you'd imagine, since the strike shortened 98-99 season was only 50 games), averaging just 50 games per year. But in the last five years, he's averaged 69 games per year; by contrast, Elton Brand has averaged 61 games per year over the last five. So if we're "regressing to the mean" over the last five years, a pretty good sample size, Brand is the guy most likely to be out of action.
See how easy it is to manipulate numbers?
Any way you want to slice and dice it, the Clips have the league's reigning top shot-blocker and defensive rebounder, someone who also finished in the Top 50 in steals and assists, for $20 million a year for the next two years, a bargain price for a 34-year old center who seems to have put a lot of his injury history behind him. Meanwhile, the Sixers owe Brand, who has logged more total minutes than Camby, is 254 pounds and is coming off a serious achilles injury, $80 million over the next five years.
Call me crazy but I'll take Camby now, and if in two years he's still in pretty good shape I'll take Camby for a fraction of the $16 million and rising that Philly will be paying to a 30-something Elton Brand.
Another reversion to the mean point...
Does anyone else recall James Posey showing up to fat and out of shape in both Miami and Memphis? I really liked Posey on the Celtics last year, but I can totally see him dropping into cruise control now that he has a contract and no highly motivated vets pushing him.
I wouldn't be at all shocked if NO was regretting that contract in a year or two.
RhinoLove--
That's funny, have you ever heard a game where former Memphis coach Hubie Brown is announcing and Posey is on the court? I've never heard such a man-crush before. If Posey was fat and lazy in Memphis, his coach at the time sure didn't notice or hold it against him. And as for Miami, well, there is a ring on his finger and on the fingers of everyone else in the Heat organization, and Posey was part of the second-line old guard, with Antoine Walker and Gary Payton, who helped put it there.
New Orleans was just one veteran tough guy away from upsetting the Spurs in last year's playoffs. And James Posey is just what the doctor ordered. Do you really think West, Chandler, Paul, Byron Scott, etc. are not going to be highly motivated, and established enough to call out Posey if he tanks?
Finally I'll take Posey at $6-7 million per year over Bonzie Wells at $2.5 million per year in the same role.
I agree. This is the best offseason move that didn't end up in somebody's lap as a result of having huge cap room (the Clips). Philly seemed smart, but Brand and his achilles are not likely to make it up and down the court jumping for a full season without heavy rest.
Nice handle.
Speaking of achilles. Did anyone else catch the Mannix column on CNN/SI? He quotes an unnamed GM as saying that "Love's body is a train wreck". Mannix is a self proclaimed Love hater, but it's a point that seems to have gotten little mention on this blog. Knee surgery, now a sore achilles after two weeks of practice. Did the Wolves give proper consideration to this guy's injury history?
Hey, I am not making this stuff up. Check out his stats the following season in Memphis (after Hubie got canned) or his final year in Miami (when they let him walk). The guy has had seasons where he's had some motivational issues.
If he can give them two seasons like last year, and stay in shape over the life of the contract it'll work out. But he does have some red flags.
Fair enough, and a good defense. But as we all know from watching Posey in the '06 and '08 Finals, stats do a lousy job of chronicling his value.
I didn't intend to demean your point completely. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, even if I agree with you that Posey has not been the same guy if his team isn't in the hunt, that isn't exactly expected to be a problem for New Orleans next season. If they aren't in the upper echelon of the West, there will be more than Posey to blame.
Gomes was among the first players mentioned when Posey signed with NO. Danny probably made the call as soon as word of Posey's signing leaked.
Clips stole Camby and the suggested trade with Miami would be good for both teams. Denver, like Dallas is showing that it doesn't have a clue. Not sure what Dallas' problem is but could it be the altitude in Denver?
Glad to see that someone else believes that the Lakers as constructed is a time bomb.
Great blog Britt. I had never thought about Gomes back to the Celtics, but he's from the east coast and Doc Rivers was very high on him. There was even a crazy rumor the Wolves were going to let him go after the KG trade so he could go back to Boston, which would have been another head scratcher move by McHale.
That never happened, but now the trade essentially becomes Big Al, a late number one, possible one-year services by Gomes and maybe Telfair, and the almighty cap space.
I like Gomes, but the roster is now so packed and the Wolves still need to add another guard, that I wouldn't be surprised if the newly acquired Rodney Carney or Chris Richard don't make the final regular roster unless the Wolves start buying people out or make trades to slim down it down.
I might be higher on Craig Smith than most guys are around town, but I think he has played generally well the last two years here. This is how McHale wants to play, 'Smash Mouth Basketball' and his roster is really taking that shape; court spreaders and bigs who excel in the half-court.
I think Carney and Richard have little chance, and shouldn't make the roster. I wanted him playing last year because we didn't have any bigs. This year we're only a little better, but he's undersized and not that great a talent. Smith is really able to play beyond his size, but there are very few suprising elements in Richard's game.
Carney and Booth are just salary cap room for the 76ers. To say Carney was a lottery level talent is inaccurate. He was a lottery gamble, and one that doesn't seem to have a better chance of working than Gerald Green. He was just part of the 500,000 first round pick we got for next year. A pick that might end up being a good one next year or down the road if Brand doesn't come back well from injury.
I like Gomes. But there were stretches of games last year where he basically disappeared. I would say that his talents are in the "high supply low demand" classification also. If there has been suitors for his talent, it is all subterranean. And he is still a restricted free agent if the Wolves determine his worth matches the market.
There is little (pardon the pun) doubt that the front line is diminutive. That would change with a legit big "big" in the middle. There were no real alternatives to plug the middle in the draft or in free agency. Brand was overpriced in my view. Josh Smith? The Lopez brothers? On my (thanks TK).
When assessing Rhino's worth to the team, one needs to consider last season's alternatives off the bench were any better. Gone is Twinkle Toes Walker who boo-wooed his way off the bench and into dress clothes when the Wolves didn't offer him a buy out on his terms. Gone is Buckner who didn't add much at all on the court. Gone is Marko and his (claim to fame) love interest. I view these as additions by subtraction.
Britt, wasn't expecting the f-bomb. This column must be PG-13 now right?
CA--
Cursing isn't, and won't be, a habit on this site, and certainly won't be as frequent as in my normal conversation. But sometimes a little profanity, especially when rarely invoked, and in the dog days of late July, is appropriate when the decisionmaking is that idiotic and the readership is so tightly contained.
That said, if enough people are genuinely offended I'd consider this being a bomb-free zone--or at least as bomb-free as the Senate floor when Dick Cheney is presiding.
I don't mind the occasional f-bomb, use it myself in conversation to make a point.
But I like another expletive better, after having tried it on a number of audiences. It is the all purpose epithet "to bleep".
As in "How bleeping stupid can the Nuggets management be?"
Or, if you are really angry:
How bleeping stupid can those bleeping bleeper bleepers be? They must eat bleep for breakfast and bleep enough methane to pop the corn for the concession stands.
Just a suggestion...
Y'know, I keep hearing how the Wolves are positioning themselves to be major players in the 2010 free agency sweepstakes. Forget the fact that 2010 was a pretty bad movie in it's own time, but really, who has EVER been interested in coming to Minny? I would think with all the brickbats between Garnett and the Taylor organization in the last year, the word is out about how easily folks get passive-aggressively tossed under the bus here in the Tundra. We couldn't even get Devean George back here in his prime, with KG around.
I've always liked Smith, but he's the wrong player on a team with no dominating interior presence. I think this is another case of McHale liking his own picks better than anyone else. Sentimental guy that he is, I'm thinking it's probably hard to give up his first reasonably successful second round pick in years.
As for Posey, I was rather taken aback by John Hollinger's take on the acquisition. I think this guy can contribute in the clutch for at least three years; he's a proven commodity. If in his mid 30's he starts to fade in his fourth year, his salary is movable. The Hornets needed a clutch player, and at least for 2-3 years, they got themselves one.
Great post. As odd as this sounds, the Clippers are one of the more intriguing teams heading into the season. I think Davis, Camby and Kaman are proven-enough commodities to make that team's success depend heavily on Al Thornton, who needs to step up and be their go-to scorer.
I agree that Posey is a good get for NO, but I disagree with your heading of that subject. I think LA adding Bynum makes them a slight favorite, and if they swap Odom for Artest, a heavy favorite--with the obvious caveat that injuries can, and probably will, have an effect on everything. Also, I have a hunch that Deron Williams will have a better season than CP3 and his team might be better than NO. Utah underachieved before the Korver deal last year, but showed in the LA series that they were probably the second-best team in the West at that point.
Andy G--
Not even the Zen Master can handle a team with Kobe, Artest, crybaby Gasol and the gunners Sasha and Farmar coming off the bench. Throw in the Kobe/Bynum dynamic and the fact that Bynum is returning from injury and I'd say that keeping Odom, and perhaps making him a sixth man, would be a better bet than Artest, especially in the regular season.
As for the Hornets, I think Chandler's defense never goes away and that David West is for real. Weird as it sounds, as a scorer, West reminds me of Larry Bird, albeit without the three in his arsenal.
Unless you think Duncan and Bowen won't slip, no other team in the West has a 1-2 defensive duo like Chandler and Posey.
Fair points, and if Artest does go to LA, there will be plenty of people who think it will end in disaster--others will think Phil will make it work the same way he made Rodman fit in beautifully in Chicago. Rodman was at his all-time headache high when he left San Antonio, and aside from his kick to the Wolves' camera guy's nuts, never did too much wrong for the Bulls. Without that acquisition, they may have never won another title, and almost certainly would not have won three more.
West is very efficient. I didn't watch much NO last year until the playoffs, but when they came up here, it was amazing to see the contrast between our chaotic sets, and their well-oiled offensive machine. Paul obviously heads that up, but a big part was the way that West can hit open shots, and the way he can beat his man one-on-one without having to stand and think about his next move for 4 or 5 seconds, the way many guys do.
As for Western defensive duos, what about Iverson and Melo? Kidding. If I can change the contest to defensive trios, I'd like Kobe-Artest-Bynum as much as anybody...should that trade happen.
It's difficult to see anything positive in what's happening in Denver. They were shaky to begin with, over-paid, stunk their way out of the playoffs, and now Camby is gone.
I don't agree with the NO pick however. I'd take LA with Bynum coming back. As for trading for Artest, that's a 2-edged sword. Rodman was on a team with Jordan as the leader to keep him in line. Artest would have Bryant as a leader. Not the same and I believe Artest to be a bigger problem than Rodman to boot. I wouldn’t take the risk. They have a good shot at winning it all without him and a chance of imploding with him.
I also don't understand the Smith signing. If Gomes is re-signed, then Smith looks like a regular DNP to me. Gomes will need minutes with Miller coming on board and I assume the TWs want to give minutes to Brewer. I wouldn’t though. IMO both Brewer and Smith are limited players. Brewer should be dominating the VSL. Instead, he's struggling with the same bad shot, lack of a spot-up 3PFG (that Posey and Bowen have) ball-handling issues, and worst of all, a complete lack of poise/control. You can't be just a defender with no other skill. People say it’s just summer league, but that’s for the guys who do well and then disappear during the regular season (Marcus Banks for example). If you can’t make it there, you can’t probably make it anywhere. I don’t see Brewer as a bad pick for KM. It was a toss up within a real dead spot in the 2007 draft where none of the other consensus picks for the slot look like anything special at this point.
I do think there are a number of teams that have interest in Gomes if they think the TWs can't/won't match. I can think of a lot of good teams where he would be a good fit. (Lakers especially if they didn't have so much $$ spent on a over-rated and now exposed bench) I’ve heard that the Piston’s are also looking for a back-up 3 behind Prince (who may also bee on the block). Gomes is hardly a secret within the NBA. Boston might also be interested, but I think Ainge would have to know he wasn’t bidding alone against McHale or that no deal could be cut and Gomes was going to take the qualifying offer and become a UFA next year.
Boston is losing its free agents because other teams are over-paying them (House, Tony Allen, and Posey) as well as PJ Brown retiring (probably). They have a possible replacement for House, but Gomes would help with the loss of Brown (move KG to 5), Allen (Move PP to 2), and Posey (who played mostly at the 3 and in small line-ups at the 4). Gomes is not the defensive player that Posey is nor does he have the experience and locker room presence. However, he's a better offensive player and rebounder and his stats also under-state his contributions. He's also a better player at this point in his career than Posey was. On the other hand, the Celtics may be interested in another RFA who is more defensive-minded and who may not be matched (Matt Barnes?). Whatever the case, it looks like they Celtics will have to spend money on a player who is not at the vet minimum looking for a ring if they want to repeat. They really have few trade opportunities/trade assets otherwise.
Forgot to add that I think you’re over-rating Posey too. Had a very good finals, but Gomes had a better year especially in the 2nd half (37th in efficiency rating vs 71st for Posey out of 188 qualifying NBA forwards). Posey hasn’t averaged more 8 ppg during the last 4 regular or post-seasons.