Let's start this with the big fat cavaet that I rarely watch, and am certainly not very well versed about, college basketball. And since two of the key principals in the eight-player swap that the Timberwolves and Grizzlies pulled off in the middle of the night Thursday/Friday are high-caliber college players, I am working with hearsay and inferences rather than my own eyes about how good or appropriate Kevin Love and OJ Mayo will be while plying their now-lucrative trade for their new NBA teams. Maybe when I get a gander at Love and Mayo in action, I'll have a totally different take. For that matter, maybe my college ignorance is why I seem to be among the minority (and in agreement with ESPN's Chad Ford, which may be worse) in thinking it is a good trade for Minnesota. So be it. You can only go with what you think you know. I'm not trying to hedge, I'm just honestly laying out the context.
First of all, the question isn't whether the Timberwolves helped themselves last night--compare the pre-draft and post-draft rosters and try to tell me they didn't significantly upgrade--but whether they helped themselves as much as they could. My answer is no, they didn't, but that's because they idiotically punted the 34th pick for no discernible reason other than to be pennywise, and we all know the second half of that course of action.
Let's cut to the chase. Here are the reasons I really like the Memphis deal.
1) Mike Miller, who is one of the more underrated players in this league.
Well, maybe not underrated so much as unknown despite his gaudy accomplishments. If you put out the trivia question: "Which NBA player has been named both Rookie of the Year (in 2000-01) and 6th Man of the Year (2005-06) during his career?" how many guesses would it take before folks came up with Miller? Having turned 28 in February, the guy is in his prime, yet sports the kind of game that isn't likely to fall off a cliff once he moves past 30. Last season was arguably the best of his career. He sank over half his shots (50.2%), which is made more impressive by the fact that over 40% of them were treys (359 three pointers, out of 824 total FGA), of which he converted 43.2%. Those are career-best numbers but not a huge aberration, as Miller is a career 40.3% shooter from behind the arc after nine NBA seasons. He also led the Grizz in rebounds last year, averaging 6.7 per game, and doled out 3.4 assists. He's 6-8--a legitimate 3 and a matchup problem for opponents at the 2. He is a floor-spacer par excellence, making it very difficult for teams to double down on Al Jefferson in the low block without getting singed from outside.
2) Having a plan and sticking to it.
The most glaring need for the Wolves coming into the draft was gaining size, and picking up personnel that would banish the absurd smallball that had Jefferson at center and Ryan Gomes at power forward many times during the season. Taking OJ Mayo with the third overall pick meant that for the fourth straight year the Wolves were drafting a backcourt swingman (McCants/Foye/Brewer/Mayo). When the team thought Mayo was indeed their pick, I heard Fred Hoiberg tell the Draft Party audience that they could always address the need for a big in free agency. Ah, but when you look at the free agent list, it's slim pickin's indeed--the best of the lot are probably Kurt Thomas and Dasagna Diop, both less-than-perfect fits (to put it mildly) who will command inflated salaries on the free market. So, that meant paying through the nose or putting up with another year of Mark Madsen and Chris Richard when you didn't want to play smallball.
Now you've got Jason Collins, who has fallen off a bit but is still a better complement to Jefferson in the pivot than anyone else previously on the roster. He's a legit seven-footer who doesn't need touches on offense and knows his meal ticket is rugged defense. You've got Collins for one year and then his $6.2 million comes off the books and you might have to look for another backup center before you can bring over the hot second round pick Nikola Pekovic, who most agree can be a player in the pivot once his rich deal with a team in Greece expires in two years.
But more importantly, if you're Kevin McHale, you have eliminated excuses, introduced more direct accountability, and gone out and acquired the person you unequivocally state is "the best big man in the draft." Kevin Love is just a shade under 6-10, has a wide body, is reputed to be a tenacious rebounder, and was named the Player of the Year in the PAC-10 as a freshman, a league that also contained OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook. Many think he is too small to succeed in the NBA paint: McHale is not one of them. The Wolves front office get feisty in pointing out that his combine numbers for size and athleticism compare with Atlanta center Al Horford. They think Jefferson and Love are a legit 4/5, or 5/4, depending on the matchups. I don't know if they're right, but I do strongly suspect that Jefferson/Love will play bigger than Jefferson/Gomes, with the 7-footer Collins available to change the mix. More to the point, you don't have a paucity of big men that enable you to trot out a 3-guard offense as the other side of frontcourt smallball and pretend that's what you really wanted to do. If you're McHale, you drafted Randy Foye stating that he can be a combo guard with a primary emphasis on the point, and OJ Mayo is not around to gum up and otherwise complicate that evaluation. The Wolves needed size and they got a better backup than they had last year and the person they believe is the best big man to come out of college this year. If they're wrong, it will be very easy to notice.
3) Boil down the legacy and it's a 2-for-1 swap
Thank god for salary cap junkies who keep us all honest, and for closet GM types always figuring the roster angles. They will have a field day with this 8-player (count 'em, eight!) deal and all its salary implications and ability to maneuver or not. Well, having watched this Wolves squad for the past four non-playoff seasons, I am well aware of what Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker and Greg Buckner bring to the table. Jaric has been reviled for what he got--a ridiculous contract that will pay him more than $7 million a year through 2010-11--and what he was not--he was not a good complement for Kevin Garnett, not good in the clutch, not capable of making anyone forget he cost not only Sam Cassell but a precious first round pick that has led to tanking by the franchise in order to keep it. Marko can be a spasmodically effective player in a "do all the little things mode." That's not the definition of a $7 million man, however. Walker would have been bought out last year if he hadn't greedily wanted more than he was worth to go away. And Buckner spent more time in street clothes than a uniform.
Minnesota is not exempt in this deal from taking on the Grizzlies' mistakes. Foremost among them is Brian Cardinal, who will make $6.5 million a year through 2009-10 and is less effective than Jaric. And Collins we've already discussed--overpaid at more than $6 million. So there you have it. The players who are truly coveted in this exchange, the ones whose talent really matters and will thus determine the legacy of the deal, amounts to OJ Mayo for Memphis and Mike Miller and Kevin Love for the Wolves. And that's what will have to be determined: Is OJ Mayo ultimately worth more or less than Love and Miller?
Those are the three reasons why I currently endorse the trade. But do I perceive there to be any downsides to the deal? Yeah, some potentially serious downsides. This is by no means a slam-dunk bonanza. Here are my primary concerns.
1) No defense and lots of turnovers
The Wolves brass seem convinced that Love and Jefferson on the front line is perfectly sufficient--no, even better, part of the new vogue--for the long term future of the franchise. But almost all the raving I've heard about Love is about his passing, his midrange and long range shooting, his savvy box-outs--not a lot about his defense. On top of that, there are some questions about his physicality in the paint. Now I know Jefferson's game, and his offense is light years ahead of his defense. So going with a pair of legit power forwards who don't excel at D sounds like a recipe for disaster in the paint against large lineups. True, large lineups don't happen even a majority of the time anymore, but, funny, the really good teams seem to be able to defend them, mostly by having one themselves. Not to put too fine a point on it: Minnesota's interior defense could be in trouble if Jefferson and Love are your frontcourt. Maybe it will be better than Jefferson-Gomes, simply because Love is larger, but let's not forget that Gomes is pretty big (250 pounds) and smart too.
What's more, you no longer have Mayo in the backcourt and by most accounts, Mayo can be very good with perimeter defense. Stopping penetration was one of the team's biggest bugaboos last year, and Mike Miller doesn't seem like the answer. In fact a quintet of Jefferson-Love-Gomes-Miller-Foye, as marvelous as it might be on offense, sounds like a disaster on D. The Wolves would win and lose a lot of game by scores like 115-111, and that's not the way to build a winning culture in the NBA.
The silver lining in this, perhaps, anyway, is that the NBA showed us this year that defense is more than ever (in this time of zones are okay and hand-checking isn't) about time synergy more than individual prowess. The Celtics only had two good/great individual defenders in its starting lineup--KG and Rondo--yet played masterfully together, rotating and fluctuating as if everyone was on a string. By contrast, the Nuggets had two defensive studs among its five starters--Marcus Camby and Anthony Carter--and played wretched, dreadful, pathetic team defense. The lesson is emphasis and motivation. Do I think current coach Randy Wittman can emphasize and motivate a subpar defensive team to be appreciably better than their individual collective talents? No, not really, which is why this is a concern.
The other concern with the new Wolves roster is turnovers. For all of Miller's strengths, he turns the ball over more 2.6 times per game, which is plentiful. As a rookie, even a precocious one, Love is going to make mistakes that lead to turnovers. Most importantly, Randy Foye is going to have to be your floor general and steady ballhandler. In addition to being a porous defender last season, Foye was hardly Mr. Steady with the handle. In fact I'd say Bassy Telfair is a large beneficiary of this trade, even as Corey Brewer seems penalized by it.
2) That Mayo is a Superstar about to happen
On draft night a few years back, everyone was wondering whether Detroit should have taken Carmelo Anthony instead of Darko. Turns out the real choice was Dwyane Wade after LeBron. It happens every year: Some people thought Marcus Williams deserved to go over Chris Paul and Deron Williams and some thought it idiotic. And there was Foye/Roy. Now we've got two guys who are consensus stars in Rose and Beasley, and divided opinion on OJ Mayo. Some see him as star who belongs in the conversation with Rose and Beasley, much as Wade did with LeBron and Melo. If those people are right, then this will obviously be a horrible trade for Minnesota. There are some things that could make it much less horrible--the emergence of Randy Foye into a star himself, making Mayo's stardom redundant to the position; or the overachievement of Kevin Love from very solid pro to Chris Bosh-like invaluability. As I said before, the legacy boils down to Love/Miller for Mayo. And if Mayo is the dominant star who leads his team beyond expectation, bad deal for Minnesota.
I'll tell you what I'm not concerned about. I'm not concerned about Mike Miller retarding the development of Corey Brewer and inflating the Wolves to mediocrity so it can't seize any more stud draft picks. If Brewer develops, he'll earn minutes--the Wolves desperately a quality defender in their rotation--and the idea that Miller is going to come and go before he can be really important to the franchise underestimates his shelf life value.
Last but not least, I want to reiterate how dumb it was for Minnesota to fritter away its second second-rounder at #34. I like the blockbuster Memphis trade (with the college cavaet unfortunately attached) and the first second rounder, who seems to be a mixture of draft luck and solid scouting. But this seems like it was a pretty deep draft--at least that's what the Wolves braintrust itself was telling everyone to get its flock excited about the second rounders. And this did seem to be a draft where there was more-than-usual disagreement about who did and didn't have first-round potential, meaning that some players regarded by smart, diligent scouts as first-rounders were still there at #34. For the Wolves to let Miami simply take it from them for two future second-rounders and cash feels like a lack of resolve to improve as rapidly as possible and bear relatively small cost for trying.
More than that, it was stupid public relations. As one of the commenters to his site, Andy G, mentioned last night, there is going to be at least one or two players picked at or beyond #34 that will pan out in this league, opening the Wolves up to the same kind of scorn they received for Josh Howard.
Worst of all, it may be the pick they handed over to Miami that is the specific example. The Heat chose Mario Chalmers, who the rep of being a steadying influence, a selfless point guard who enabled his more talented teammates at Kansas and then hit the big shot when it mattered to send the championship game into overtime. In other words, Chalmers is calm, seasoned and without a lot of ego. Now he is going to a team that has a pretty dire situation at the point, meaning that Chalmers might be able to work his way into getting quality minutes with a starting unit that includes Wade, Beasley and Shawn Marion. There's potential for 8-10 assists per game right there, and if Chalmers gets them as a rookie, he's going to have a very high profile. For all I know, this will be a laughable scenario when we look back on it a year from now. But if so, the Wolves will have dodged a bullet--and one fired from a gun they handed over to their critics.
Wolves latest move is that apparently we've gotten Calvin Booth, Rodney Carney, and a protected first-rounder in exchange for the trade exception we received from the Mark Blount deal. Philly is looking to clear cap space for Brand or Josh Smith. Good move, even though both players are non-factors. Taking the cash we got from the Chalmers trade + not signing our second-rounder, and spending it on a future pick isn't bad.
Of course, this can't be announced until tomorrow when the cap is announced, but the Wolves sure are piling up bodies, aren't they? I forget exactly what the trade rules are, but I believe that recently-traded players cannot be packaged with other players for 30 days (or maybe 60), but they can be dealt on their own. I don't have any insight as to what any other moves are (if any), but we certainly would be able to package a bit of our younger talent with some of these expiring deals in about a month, right?
Calvin Booth? Weird, in ea nba live 2000, I made an entire team out of calvin booth clones with enhanced skills. It was funny to me because Calvin Booth seemed like such an unexceptional player. Even at age 13, I had an odd sense of humor. Now, finally my dream has come true and Calvin Booth is a timberwolf until probably mid preseason at least. Granted, even if he's not a special nba player,, he'd probably beat me in a game of one on one 21 to nothing.
I've been a wolves fan for a long time. (Here's a clue as to how long: I remember when Bob McCann was their best post player.) And I've gotta say, I really like the trade for Love and Miller.
Check out this lineup:
Jefferson
Love
Gomes
Miller
Foye
You've got great passing at the 3 & 4. You've got good shooting at 1 through 4 to space the floor giving Al plenty of room down low. You've got Foye's penetration when the offense gets stagnant. You have decent speed at all positions and fantastic size everywhere but at the 5. Ball handling could be an issue, but rebounding is good and you can just have Love chuck the ball upcourt.
Even better, the bench complements the starters. If they go to a full court
trap, you put in bassy for miller or foye. If you're getting killed at the 4 or 5, put Collins in for love and slide al to 4. If their wings are bothering you, put in brewer. If they go small, put the rhino in at 4 and kill 'em on the offensive glass. Sub in shaddy with Collins or bassy to hide their offensive shortcomings.
I think that's a sensible rotation that could do some damage next year.
And the be
Since this is public information now, having been posted in its entirety on the espn board, I thought we might as well throw some more fuel on fire. It's purportedly an email response from Assistant GM Jim Stack to a disappointed Wolves fan. I can't vouch for its authenticity, but it seems believable to me.
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First of all thanks for your concerns regarding what we did on draft night. I can assure you I understand how important it is to have fans who are passionate.
I would like to address your concerns in the order you presented them if that is good with you.
Regarding getting Jaric included in the deal with Memphis, this was an extremely important step for us to put us in a position to be cap fluid in two years. Our near term goals are to make the team as competitive as possible right now so we will be attractive to free agents over the next two years. Because I am in contact with all the other teams in the league all the time and many of them are eyeing the free agent market as well, I felt if we could move Jaric now it would be something we needed to do based on cleaning our books up for 2010.Getting Jaric's third year off our books without having to take back a similar contract really sets up our future. To get Miller and Love included and a backup center in Collins really addresses the needs we had going into the draft. Cardinal brings experience as well as perimeter shooting and is a great locker room presence.
Regarding Buckner and Walker being bigger assets because of 11 million in expiring contracts I respectfully disagree with you.In talking to teams around the league it was clear to me that we would have to include one or possibly two of our young players in any deal with Walker involved to maybe have a chance at taking on a player who probably has underachieved with his previous team. I have studied the market very carefully as this is part of what I do and it is a real gamble to wait back and hope a Gasol type deal presents itself like what happened for the Lakers. I believe because of the backlash that deal received for Memphis, teams will not be willing to trade an asset of Gasol's caliber unless they are really holding you up in terms of what they get back.
Coupled with the fact that Antoine was becoming a distraction in our locker room with Al Jefferson using Al to push for playing time for himself. Buckner was a pro in every sense of the word.In order to get Collins who I think has shown he can play as he has been on some playoff caliber teams as a starting center, it was a deal I felt like we had to make. It gives us flexibility with our roster to play big when the need arises. Collins is also a great guy and will fit in well with the culture we are building.
I understand clearing cap money does not guarantee we will sign a star but as we move forward with our team Al Jefferson will be a star.Mike Miller is an elite level shooter who is in the prime of his career and can start or come off the bench as demonstrated by his sixth man of the year a few years back. Kevin Love is the most skilled big man in this draft by far and at 19 years old has a really bright future.He will make everyone around him better and he is a winner. Randy Foye it's a shame he got injured last year but he is one-hundred percent healthy and showed me down the stretch of the season he has a chance to be really good. Corey Brewer can defend elite wings right now in our league and as his shooting develops he will be a really good role player for us.So as we move forward I think our team has a chance to dramatically improve and be very attractive to free agents the next couple of years.Walker and Buckner were instumental in helping us get Miller and Love and Collins. Adding Jaric to be cap fluid was a very important add on.
Regarding Al and Kevin Love playing together at 4 and 5, I think you have to realize that whether Al is listed as a 4 or a 5 he will draw the other team's best low post defender. What Kevin brings is a guy because of his skill set who can step out and shoot and pass and rebound. He can also post and dribble drive and will be defended by the weaker of the other team's low post players. They fit together very well on offense and I am really excited to see that evolve next season. On the defensive side Al made a bigger commitment down the stretch of last year to be a basket protector as demonstrated by his shot blocking. Kevin is an early help player who understands team defensive schemes and will take charges and is very physical.All of these traits will translate at the defensive end.
The league has downsized overall upfront with the exception of a few teams where I think having Collins will give us the ability to play bigger when we need to.I can assure you we will not be getting destroyed down on the blocks with Big Al and Kevin.In fact I think it will be the other way around.
Regarding trading the pick at # 34 in the draft, we did not have the Memphis deal until after that pick was made. A few other thoughts for your consideration.Chalmers played mostly the off guard at Kansas. They had Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins as their main ballhandlers.While Chalmers did play some point he was primarily a defender and scorer for the Jayhawks last year and at 6'1" is a very undersized two guard who showed some ability to play the point in certain situations. The other important point to consider is that being a rookie in the NBA next year at a position that he only played part time and is the most difficult position in the league to learn, there will defeinitely be a long learning curve for him to adjust to playing this position on a more full time basis. I think you saw that last year with Telfair who has been a point guard his whole life where there were some real growing pains for him before he found his groove and started playing better down the stretch of the season. In my view there are other avenues for us to pursue to find a more accomplished experienced point guard than Chalmers.I do not think we are in a position to wait on a player who has not played the position full time and who will be a rookie next year. Telfair was in the league three years before we got him and he still had a very difficult adjustment period last year and still needs to upgrade his shooting before we can consider him to be a bonifide part of our core moving forward.
Regarding there being no reason not to have the Memphis deal done prior to the draft,that is a difficult one for me. We had to have Miller in the deal and have Jaric in the deal for us to consider doing it and Memphis did not budge until we were midway into the second round. This in my mind would not have affected what we did in the second round at 34 anyway.We got the best big man in Europe at 31 and for me I did not feel it would be prudent to add two more rookies to our team this year.We will have Pekovic in two years and he is already a player who can come in and play for us. I generally put rookies into three categories. Projects,prospects and players. Peckovic is a player. Chalmers is between a project and a prospect because he is not s natural point guard. Chris Douglas Roberts is a prospect in my view because he has a natural ability as a scorer but my feeling is that he is nowhere close to Miller,McCants, or Brewer in terms of fitting into our team and having a chance to supplant one of them.Being a rookie is another hurdle for him to overcome and he will have to go through a lot of the growing pains that McCants and Brewer have alreadty been through.McCants while he knows he must get better defensively, really seemed to find his niche coming off the bench for us last year.He averaged 15 points in just under 27 mpg and also shot almost 41 percent from the three point line which was in the top five percentage wise in the league among players with more than four attempts per game. I can assure you James a lot of ground work was layed leading up to the draft to position the deal we did with Memphis but we needed Memphis to be a participant and they did not feel it was something they could do until we worked a couple more angles which I cannot get into.
DeAndre Jordan is a project in my view meaning he has not one discernible NBA skill at this point in time. Getting Pekovic who can step on an NBA floor right now and be productive was a much better option for us than Jordan.
We will have a player who in two years can step in and play for us.With Jordan I did not like his profile. He has some red flags in terms of desire and work ethic that were of concern to me to go along with his underdeveloped skill level. We also received two second round picks for 34 and a hefty sum of cash which will help us in adding players to our team in the future.
Please be assured we in the front office are always discussing the type of team we want to have that will give us our best chance to compete for a championship My view is that we want players who come from winning programs who are very competitive by nature and who want to play in Minnesota and be a part of what we are building.As far as style of play we want to be a team who can play inside out and play a power game through Al Jefferson in the post while putting periimeter shooting around him to make teams pay for over commiting to him. Getting Miller and Love not only upgrades our shooting but also gives us two team guys who are excellent passers and guys who have high basketball IQ's.We want to play uptempo when the opportunity presents itself but I believe we have the type of team that can also sit in the half court and make things happen with Foye, Jefferson,McCants,Miller, Gomes as focal points Defensively our challenge is to collectively play as a unit. We have to play team defense.This involves trust and effort which I believe we will get effort and having the same core of guys back will help our continuity and build more trust.Building momentum and confidence by everyone being on the same page will be a challenge for our coaches to make sure they are teaching our players properly and staying consistent with their message.
As for O.J.Mayo I feel he will be a solid pro.He is undersized a little at the two guard being only a shade over 6'4" and about 195. Mayo is a shot maker who can defend and brings some versatility in terms of playing both backcourt spots.However in my view he does not have what we call blow by speed to get by people off the dribble and was not very effective getting to the foul line. He does not turn the corner consistently off the dribble and was turnover prone at times when he forced the issue. I was content with him because of his shooting and defense and he has a great work ethic but he can be over run physically at the off guard spot. To me when Memphis came back to us with the Love/Miller deal it filled too many holes for us to pass up. To add Jaric in was icing on the cake as it really sets the table for us moving forward into free agency the next couple years.
In closingI hope I have addressed some of your concerns.We take everything we do here very seriously I certainly value your support and hope you will stay the course with us.It will be an exciting time for us as move into the future.
Sincerely,
Jim Stack
Wow, I didn't think that was a real letter from Stack until I was halfway through it and it seemed like it contained too much insight to not be real...or the work of an amazingly good hoax artist.
I agree with everything he wrote about Mayo and Chalmers. I'm a little sad that the people who were SO upset when the trade first happened because of losing those two will not remember how they felt in 4 years when Chalmers is a bench player (at best) and Mayo is a solid, not spectacular 2 guard.If only our discussion thread aliases could carry our lifetime worth of posts so we could know who said what when. :-)
I'll put my name down in the Chalmers column. When the team is in December with Blake Ahern coming off the bench for Shaddy at the point when Foye goes down for 5 games and the Wolves lose to a Heat team led by a PG duo of Bassy and Chalmers...well, I promise not to say "I told you so."
Chalmers was a swing and a miss if only for the fact that they had a league minimum backup for a single year.
You're right in that the Wolves will probably be in a spot this year where they could have used Chalmers. But that's 20/20 hindsight. Chalmers wasn't Chalmers on draft night when the trade was made, he was just the #34 pick in the draft for a team that had alot of youth + Jaric and Buckner.
It's only after the Memphis trade that the team misses that pick and that isn't something they could have known.
In order for the trade of the #34 pick to be really bad Chalmers or Jordan or one of those picks around there would have to become a really solid starter and I feel comfortable betting that won't happen.
Well, I'll continue to say what I've said before: he'll be starting in Miami by the end of the year and he'll do it by excellent perimeter shooting, not turning the ball over, and solid perimeter defense.
In no way, shape, or form is this 20/20 hindsight. If they were working the Love trade (and from the Memphis Commercial Appeal timeline, they were), they should have had a backup plan at the point from the get-go. Here's hoping they worked out a sign-and-trade deal with Memphis with Smith for Lowry.
This is the same team that trades Brandon Roy for Randy Foye, under the assumption that they can turn undersized SG Foye into a PG. If that wasn't a bad use of a #7 pick, how could we justify the reverse logic on a #34 pick? Your not going to get a sure thing PG in the 2nd round. The guy will either have dubious talent and athleticism or he won't be a pure point.
I think Chalmers had a ton of value as a #34. More than a few draft boards had him pegged as a late lottery pick. The guy can play, and I would not be surprised if he has a long career. What more can you ask of a 2nd round pick?
I agree with you S&P, he could easily be starting in Miami, although playing next to another ballhandler like DWade is an ideal situation for a player like him. He would be less effective with the Wolves (who isn't :)), but we sure could have used him. Stupid, stupid move trading that pick.
What about Stack's contention that Chalmers is really an undersized off guard with limited experience as a PG in college? If this is true, it certainly demonstrates why he slipped to #34. I'm thinking he sounds a lot like his upside might be Bobby Jackson. In which case, handing him the reigns of an NBA team might be extremely frustrating for his first few seasons. That is if he has as much talent as Jackson. If not, he is probably not going to make it as an NBA player.
I saw Chalmers play a handful of times in his KU career, and always liked him as a college player, and never considered him a high pro-prospect. He was too small to be a two guard, and didn't seem to have any noticeable playmaking ability at the point. That said, SnP is right that he can shoot and defend point guards. With a Wade/Bryant/James/Melo type next to him in the backcourt, I think he could possibly play a long career. With Foye/McCants/Brewer, I'd say it's more doubtful. However, if we lose Bassy, and don't bring in an adequate replacement, we could've used him for the lone fact that we won't have a point guard in certain situations.
The Wolves needed to gamble on upside with that pick and Jordan and Walker have upside (as does CDR, to a lesser extent). They both might bust, and it's not going out on a limb at all to predict that both will be out of the league in 4 years. However, 2nd Round picks are worth almost nothing, so I didn't understand the decision to waste an opportunity.
Chalmers did outplay Rose in an early summer league game yesterday. I think he was one of the better prospects from a number standpoint according to hollinger. The numbers make him look like a very efficient scorer, who doesn't turn the ball over a whole lot but instead steals a lot of balls from the other team. http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Just-by-the-Numbers--Evaluating-this...
We'll see if that letter is from Stack. I've emailed the club and I'm waiting to see if it's verified or not. If it is, I think they made 2 gigantic FUBARs with CDR and Chalmers; both of whom are players that could have helped the Wolves with the pick they stupidly traded away. If Rodney Carney ends up on this squad without another trade happening, it will further compound the FUBAR.
Well...
One thing I don't like about what he is saying is about Pekovic being ready now, and we wait 2 years of uncertainty. If he comes over and produces then I guess I will be eating crow.
Also, CDR not fitting into our team? What kind of team do we have that he wouldn/t be a good fit for? I mean, he's (Stack) insinuating that we have some sort of team ideology or some style of play in place already. Really...what kind of team are we now--that he wouldn't fit into?
From all I can tell we don't really have a type of offense, we don't have a set type of defense either. We're not offensively loaded nor do we have great defenders.
Though I do think Love is now becoming more appealing to me. He has decent height and at 19 years old, he still has room to grow. He may grow another inch or 2 by the time his rookie contract is up.
Still, our perimeter defense is horrid, and because of that it puts a lot of stress on the guys up front who aren't good defenders either. Guy come in late, draw fouls or just easy straight to the hoop lay ins for the opposing team.
If we learned anything from last years playoffs, it's that teams that have solid/strong/good/great defense go deeper in the playoffs than teams who don't have it. All the teams in the playoffs had scoring capability, but few had the defensive tenacity of the Celtics and that to me is what put them on the podium holding up the Larry O'Brien trophy.
I think there's something that is missing from all the discussion about the Love/Mayo trade. Let me ask a question:
Q: What was the most important part of the Wolves' 2007/08 season?
A: A coin flip.
Had they not won the draft coin flip with Memphis, we'd be discussing the relative merits of a Kevin Love pick at #5 in this thread. Since they did win the coin flip, we're talking about Mike Miller, Kevin Love, future cap space, and the fact that the team got rid of Marko Jaric and Toine.
Forget OJ Mayo, a coin flip turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, and a 2010 free agent run.
Who says the Wolves don't get lucky?
Thanks SNP I HAD forgotten that memory. As of right now, I still like the trade for the future. Since all of us gathered here KNOW that we are not contending for a championship next year, we should be glad to get rid of some dead wood and get some decent players back.
So lets look at our current (non free agent) roster and see if we can improve on last year... because if you're not improving, you losing ground...
22 Corey Brewer F-G 6-9
Brian Cardinal F 6-8
Jason Collins C-F 7-0
4 Randy Foye G 6-4
25 Al Jefferson C-F 6-10
Kevin Love ** C-F 6-10
35 Mark Madsen C-F 6-9
1 Rashad McCants G 6-4
Mike Miller G-F 6-8
Nikola Pekovic ** C-F 6-11
I do not see them hanging on to Cardinal too long, unless he becomes the player that got him that big contract to begin with. I may be buying into the koolaid that the front office is selling, but I really would like to see a starting lineup of Foye,Miller,Love, Jefferson and Collins. Is it intimidating? No, but we are larger and may even play better defense. Yes I know, with all the comments I've seen this team wouldn't play ANY defense. Is this team better than the one we had last year, though, and can it lead to some interesting trades/picks?
I would like to see Pekovic play and if he "tests" out as well as it sounds, that would give us a big presence in the middle that scores & defends. I would also like to qualify Jeffersons defense last year with the fact that he was guarding the C most of the time and no matter how quick he is, it just doesn't match up well with large, strong centers around the hoops ( eg: Shag-Fu)
There is my unqualified, very amateur, analysis.
A few years ago, Roland Beech of 82games.com, discovered that Brian Cardinal's "intangibles" gave him an outstanding +/-, especially considering his salary at the time. He got a big free agent contract with Memphis, which became one of the "absolute worst contracts" as his production fell off the map and he became a bench warmer. You can bet that's why he is only talked about as a "great locker room guy". After Roland touted him, I tried to watch him as much as possible -- to tell you the truth, I didn't see anything particularly encouraging about his play. Basically, I think he's gonna be just another millstone around the neck of the Wolves -- no one is going to trade for him. And let's be real, I doubt that the Wolves would have traded for him if they weren't trying to unload Jarics so desperately.
As far as Pekovic goes, I sincerely believe that we will never see him in a Wolves uniform, and probably never in the NBA. It's just McHale hoping to land a lucky shot. The good news (for him) is that it doesn't cost Glen Taylor a dime -- unless you consider "opportunity cost".
"Let's Build It Together" - what that fine slogan from the Wolves marketing department really means is: "Give us your money so that we can line our pockets while we squander all of our opportunities to build a decent team". Am I harsh? Yes. The teams biggest needs were (and have been for years) servicable centers and point guards. Have you seen evidence of the Wolves trying to acquire any, via draft or free agency? I think not.
It's was pretty much a given that any team picking 1st in the second round was going to pick Pekovic. What are you basing your "belief" on.
I was reading several articles re draft prospects and articles on him -- I didn't bookmark the references, sorry. My conclusion that it's a very long shot that Pekovic will come to the NBA, and thus wasted draft choice for the Wolves that they can ill-afford. Other teams, e.g. the Celtics, can afford to gamble on a player that won't be available for two years.
I sincerely hope that I am wrong and that the Wolves do obtain the services of a bona fide center.
As for Pekovic, he wouldn't have been in so much demand if teams didn't think he'll eventually come over. That "belief" is probably based on less information than what the Wolves have from Pekovic and his agent. Why would he apply for the draft if he didn't want to come over? I know someone mentioned a quote, but if that's the case, cite the quote; don't just bring up "I heard that...". That's not proof.
As for serviceable centers, you might not believe this, but I think Collins is a serviceable center; look up how many playoff starts he has. That means something. Mark Blount, despite being a head case, is a serviceable center. Rasho Nesterovic and Marc Jackson were serviceable centers. Ervin Johnson was a serviceable center. For me, being "serviceable" means being capable of starting for a playoff team. All of the guys listed did that. Teams don't need more than one true center in their rotation anymore.
would you include stanley roberts in the "serviceable" category? i kid, i kid.
i think it's funny, when people were touting kg's defensive prowess over the last few years, they brought up his league-leading defensive rebounding as a key stat. if kevin love boxes out well, doesn't that qualify as defense? if he takes charges and positions himself as well as those other "serviceable" guys at center -- he's gonna be fine. it's not as if his game is built on jumping over people for rebounds and slashing for highlight reel material -- stromile swift, chicago's thomas, tyson chandler, dwight howard fit that bill off the top of my head.
if love is serviceable on defense and more than that on rebounding, is that enough?
I think it counts. The strange thing is that they've never had a great center, yet it didn't matter when they had a system that worked and players who bought into it. Even Roberts platooned with Cherokee Parks during their second playoff year. The main thing was protecting the paint, playing off of the scorers, and defensive rebounding. Obviously, KG was a big help to whoever was playing with him.
You are correct in that they do continually need PG & C's, but my question is why they don't use what they had. My example is Walker & Theo Ratliff. Now in Theo, there was a completely serviceable center, but yet it seems to me like he never played. I know he was injured at the beginning of the season, but even afer he came back, he didn't play much. I don't remember him ever saying he wanted out, yet the wolves bought him out and he winds up playing pretty well for Detroit, albeit in a back up position. Why did the Wolves not use him like that?? Then Walker was b*&^%ing about not playing and the wolves refused to buy him out. Can anyone explain all the logic that was involved in those two moves/nonmoves, or am I just too far away to hear all the murmers?
We have a few Pekovic YouTubes up over at Hoopus and the first thing that pops to my head in watching them is this: Why would a young Euro with any kind of talent want to play in the NBA?
From language and cultural issues to the increased fandom brought about by club play to the weak dollar, I don't know why people like Pekovic, Fernandez, Splitter, Rubio, and Gasol would even consider coming over here. I get that the top end contracts in the NBA make it worthwhile for the best of the best and that even guys like Krstic and Pekovic can increase their earning potential if they are drafted in the 2nd round, but I think the gap between the NBA and the EuroLeague, at least in terms of incentive to play, is rapidly decreasing in the minds of above average European talent.
I don't know anything about the Euro labor agreements (if they even have such things) but I'd guess that Euros look at Tim Thomas, Theo Ratliff, Vince Carter, Stephon Marbury, and many others and see an opportunity to lock in $30-100 million, only a small percentage of which they'll actually have to earn. The NBA players have a really favorable agreement, with the only exception being the rookie pay-scale that is dwarfed by NFL 1st Rounders (which apparently might get changed in the next CBA negotiation).
It is my contention that Love should not be considered as a starter for the Wolves next year, especially paired with Al Jefferson in a 4/5 combination. That's simply a Kool-Aid I'm not willing to drink. I think it's folly to think that teams don't need size and strength to compete in this league anymore.
I suppose we could debate whether the Wolves are actually looking to compete, or just bring in enough of the gullible (or us lovers of the game) to keep some tidy profits rolling into Mr. Taylor's pockets, but that's a different discussion.
When I look at the Western Confernce, I see plenty of size and strength in other teams. LA should have Bynum and Gasol (also Odom, Mbenga, and Mihm) next year. The Spurs have Duncan and Oberto (and who knows who they'll pick up). The Suns of course have Shaq and Amare, plus they added Robin Lopez. You can't forget about Yao and Dikembe in Houston.
In the Northwest Division, Portland should have Odom and Aldridge (with Frye, LaFrentz, and Pryzbilla). The Jazz added a couple of 7 footers in the draft to help out Okur, Collins, and Boozer. OK, Seattle sucks, and Denver doesn't scare me much.
Right now, I'm mentally comparing Kevin Love to Ben Wallace. Wallace used to be a beast, but it should be pretty obvious by now that he needs a big, rugged, 7+foot PF alongside. Ben had one in Rasheed, but gave that up to go to Chicago and the $$$, but found himself flailing there, so next stop Cleveland -- where he actually looked pretty pitiful in this year's playoffs since the Cavs could only field Varejao (or those former Timberwolves Joe Smith and Dwayne Jones) at PF. Now, Love may have more offensive skills than Big Ben, but we have yet to see Love display them at the NBA level. Just remember that Love had problems getting his shots blocked by Missouri Valley Conference players.
Ben Wallace was a beast before Rasheed got to there. His two best rebounding and block seasons were pre-Wallace.
Big Ben's numbers were already declining in Detriot. It was obvious age and injuries were taking a toll. This is the reason an astute GM like Dumars was willing to let him go, while a knucklehead like Paxon took on an aging player who was showing signs of wear and tear.
Had nothing to do with who he was playing with.
In order to beat those huge Western Conference teams, the Wolves (or any other smaller team) will need to have 4 shooters on the floor who can also rebound. Love can shoot the three, rebound, and he is a great athlete. Miller is perhaps the best shooter in the NBA and he lead his team in rebounds last year. The Wolves bigs are on the short side of big but Jefferson can score against even the best (and biggest) defenders but now he is surrounded by guys who can shoot. I would love to see a great center next to Jefferson at PF, but that's not going to happen. Mayo is obviously a better shooter than Love, but he's not going to be better than Miller. One of the best things about those two guys are that they will make Corey Brewer such a better player. Love's passing will get him plenty of open looks from three and plenty of uncontested layups.
Its just too bad we don't have DeAndre Jordan waiting in the wings...
"may have more offensive skills than Big Ben" - well, you certainly set the bar at a modest height. I'm thinking Kevin Love will be able to be better than Ben Wallace on the offensive end.
My biggest concern with K-Love are the physical things he can't change: height, reach, wingspan. I think he's very, very skilled but I wasn't sure if there was another starting power forward in the league who had his physical stature. I did some digging and here are a few comparisons that are interesting:
(all measurements pre-draft combine)
K-Love
Height w/o shoes - 6'7" 3/4
Wingspan - 6'11" 1/4
Standing Reach - 8' 10"
Max Vert. - 35"
Carlos Boozer
Height w/o shoes - 6'7" 3/4
Wingspan - 7'2" 1/4
Standing Reach - 9' 1/2"
Max Vert. - 28.5"
David West
Height w/o shoes - 6'8" 1/4
Wingspan - 7'4" 1/4
Standing Reach - 9' 1/2"
Max Vert. - 31.5"
Height doesn't seem to be a big issue, more would help, but there are examples of people his height who have been successful at the 4.
His wingspan and standing reach are definitely a concern. He has shorter arms than you would like for an NBA player of that size. It's not catastrophic, but a legitimate concern.
Max Vert: Funnily enough - he has hops. The dude can jump. Does that plus good positioning = rebounds against the likes of Boozer or a David West? I suspect it does or that at least he can hold his own. Besides K-Love has been slimming down, his vert may actually increase.
He is on the low end of size and wingspan for a 4, no doubt. But I don't think he is an extreme outlier as I had feared. Seems like if he has the talent and smarts and he keeps his jumping ability then his size will not hold him back from being a solid NBA 4.
Nice research on the size, but we must remember that Boozer lists a 266 lbs, West (and Wallace ) at 240lbs. Love lists at @255, but most say should lose 20+ pounds, so he will likely be a little light in the pants no matter what position he plays.
One of the critical "measurements" that I've seen is hand size. You may remember that Christian Laettner had relatively small hands and he had trouble holding onto the ball in traffic because of it. I was really amazed by Rajon Rondo's hands this year -- the dude looked totally comfortable holding the ball with one hand dangling at his side. I don't have a handle on Love's grasp yet. Anyone? But a pair (of hands) like Laettner's will doom him in the NBA's painted area.
Over the long haul, I discount vertical leap. The NBA season just wears a body down. For example, KG has lost most of his, I haven't seen him win a jump ball in a long time, where he never used to lose any of them. On the other hand, the standing reach can help overcome a slight height disadvantage. Unfortunately, we see that Love is a couple inches shy of Boozer and West.
Let's not forget that Boozer was a 2nd rounder and West a very late first rounder. We just used the number 3 pick to acquire a guy with questionable size and athleticism...the kind of guy who may turn out to be good (like Boozer and West), but who teams usually pick much later due to the big risks.
I can't really say that I was sold on OJ Mayo, but I definitely do not "Love" our draft. While the trade down made some sense, we did not pick up any additional picks or young prospects...which makes zero sense. Collins is garbage and Mike Miller is a fully matured shooting specialist who serves no purpose on a team that doesn't have legit playoff aspirations. The ONLY way this trade works is if we can pull off a trade and dish Miller for picks/prospects.
I will be rooting for Love, but I like everyone else, I am fearful of what our interior defense is going to look like next year. The guy is gritty, but he is still fat (after losing 25 lbs!) and short. We know Al Jefferson is not going to have his back either.
I fear the best case scenario is Love is good enough to force a trade of Jefferson. I just don't see those two coexisting on a good team. I hope I am wrong about that, but at this point they seem too similar.
FAT?
12.9% body fat is not fat. Its not skinny, but it is far removed from fat. I think it is within the range of most elite athletes outside of marathon runners. I think you are right to be concerned that he has recently lost wieght and what this means for the future and him gaining it back. But, at this point, he is not fat nor even heavy. Fat dudes don't have 35" verticle leaps.
I agree on the sililarities of Jefferson and Love and I also wonder about their ability to coexist. However, as has been pointed out, Love/Jefferson is a great improvement on Gomes/Jefferson and having Jason Collins on the bench to bring in against taller centers vs. Chris RIchards and Doleac is another great improvement that will allow Jefferson to flourish. The worse aspect of the trade and the addition of Love you haven't mentioned, but I can understand your dissapointment. It doesn't leave much playing time for Rhino. And as far as trading Al Jefferson, a Love/ Rhino front court would fare much worse.
And Mike Miller? No Purpose? How about clearing out some room for Al Jefferson and helping his game mature? All teams have playoff aspirations and all teams need good shooters. I think Mike Miller will be a great addition to this team.
I'm excited for this team. I think there are some great opportunities and I see no reason they can't compete and win 40 games next year. A lot will rely upon the improvement of Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, but I think that will happen.
APB. Most people probably see the 40 win thing happening the real question is, what's the use of winning 40 games if it doesn't give you a chance to win a championship. I think that is the biggest concern.
The ones of us that don't (or didn't, like me) like the trade, don't like it because it doesn't (on first sight) bring us further down the path of becoming a championship team in the future. It improves us, no question about that, but on first sight most people don't see how it fits into the rebuilding plans of becoming a championship team down the road.
Though if you look at it thoroughly, shedding all those bad contracts gives us a lot of cash in 2011, the biggest free agent market in the near future. As somebody has already pointed out, we could go all out for someone like Tyson Chandler, so even tough we didn't get any young guys know, we will have lots of money in 2011 to see what the final gaps are and we can just pick up whom we thinks will fill the gaps. So it's a good trade after all.
@Levi
You say you wouldn't start Love and Jefferson together. Although I agree it's not a perfect situation on defense. What would your frontcourt rotation be? Would you start Collins? Jefferson+Gomes? That's even smaller so .. whom would you start?
Who would I start? IMHO it's too soon to think about because the Wolves need to get the 5-hole filled with someone not named Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Chris Richards, or Mark Madsen.
For openers, I'd resign Doleac tomorrow (barring something I don't know about). I'd try to trade Collins or Richards packaged with McCants and every draft pick for the next two years to get a servicable center -- as if anyone is giving them away for junk like that. Then, I'd be looking for a free agent center. When training camp opens, I'd see what's what, and who's who, and let you know.
Why isn't Collins a servicable center?
Seriously, although I would have thought Doleac was serviceable before he rarely came of the bench for the Wolves last year, I would think Collins is more serviceable than that.
I mean, he isn't that old and he started off so well with New Jersey. I would think he has some attributes to bring to the game. I'd like someone more serviceable, but, frankly servicable long centers are not that easy to come by. Who would you target with McCants and Collins?
One guy who has come a long way is Samuel Dalembert, in Philly.
Unfortunately, other than Iguodala and Andre Miller, Sam's about all the quality that the Sixers have, so it might be tough convincing them to part with him. He's also getting paid a lot, so we'd have to throw another player in with Collins and McCants -- Brian Cardinal comes to mind. Maybe a verrrry persuasive fellow could make a deal that hinges on the Wolves sending two veteran big men (Collins, Cardinal) to help bridge the gap until Philly's other young big man prospects (Jason Smith, Marreese Speights, and Herbert Hill) develop.
RealGM.com shows us that Collins+Cardinal for Dalembert meets the Collective Bargaining Agreement salary matching rules, but the Sixers take on some salary. Adding McCants adds too much salary,
McCants might fit right into Philly-ball, so I'd try to get the Sixers to throw in PG Louis Williams to balance out the deal as well as help address the Wolves lack of depth at PG. The Sixers made Williams a qualifying offer the other day, though, and they really don't have depth at PG either.
Sayyyyyy.... seen any flying pigs lately?
I agree that it would need to be a pretty good persuader to get that deal done. Offhand, I'm thinking Luca Brasi might do the trick.
While Collins as a "serviceable" center may be debated here, he has started full time with the Nets a couple of years ago (2003-2007 70+ gp & gs) and had serviceable numbers from a team that seemed to run and shoot a lot. His FG% is far below what I would consider decent for a 7 footer, but his presence on defense should alter the opponents more than Jefferson/Love.
That being said, what kind of odds are out there that we could persue Okafor? Here is a kid (26) that averages 14 & 10 on a below average Bobcat team. 2 blk/g also couldn't hurt. What kind of a deal could be worked out for him??
Anyone can contradict me on this one but if I'm right the chances are 0.1%. We already resigned some of our free agents and are, Telfair or someone else, getting a PG.
Getting okafor requiers a lot of money that we don't have because of the cap thingy so it would only work with a sign and trade. That's reeeeeeeeeaaly far fetched.
Look for the wolves to try to resign Telfair for somewhere 1-2 mil for 1 year. This will give him another chance to prove himself, if he does good he might get a longer deal next year, if he doesn't, we find someone else.
If somebody else offers him more money, I don't know how he feels about Minny, might have some sympathy because of the fact that he got a chance here, might not like it here because of the typical reasons (small market, weather, bla bla). So then we'll get some other temp PG for just one year and see what's next.
Don't think they're going for anything else than a Backup piont this summer.
Also, hope I'm not running ahead with starting the free agent debate here already.. If I am, you can delete this post :)
Yes, FAT, by the standards of the NBA (the most athletic professional league in sports) Kevin Love is still fat. I applaud his weight loss, but the guy still is doughy. He has no definition in his upper body. Not to say he can't continue to shed the poundage, but you've got to be a little scared that he got that big in the first place. He is going to need to be in tip top shape to excel in the NBA given his height, reach and below avg. lateral quickness.
You don't seriously think the Wolves has playoff aspirations this season do you? Mike Miller will be in his 30s and long gone by the time we are truly competitive.
I would have so much rather gotten Kyle Lowry or another pick. Miller may help us eke out another 4-5 wins this year, but in the grand scheme of things, I fail to see how this helps...unless we can trade him to a contender.
I can't take this thinking that Miller was not a great player to get in the deal. How freaking young do you want our team to be. Miller is basically young. 28 years old and a sharp shooter. He should be able to play at a high level until he is 35 and possibly longer. He isn't just a shooter either as he is an excellent rebounder. Those people thinking we should have a team full of under 25 year old players that is a recipe for disaster.
Two things. First, you should read the combine measurements for all of the drafted players. Kevin Love's lateral quickness was in the top 10 of all players drafted, ahead of Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, DJ Augustin, and pretty much every big besides Beasley. He was also faster than Beasley, DeAndre Jordan (a supposedly freakish athlete), and Anthony Randolph. Along with that, he did more bench press reps than everyone drafted except Sean Singletary, Joey Dorsey, Beasley, DeVon Hardin, and Joe Alexander. Who cares if a player has "defined" muscles? This isn't a bodybuilding contest. I have questions about him too, but know the facts before making evaluations.
As for Miller, why wouldn't he be around? As long as he doesn't want another $9 mil/per, there's a good chance he'd stay because he's a local kid who loved MN sports when growing up and is friends with other MN athletes. If he doesn't want to be back, why couldn't they trade him before his contract expires for something? He's the type of player who'd fit with a lot of contenders. Also, if they'd taken Lowry instead of Miller, that would've meant not including one of the big contracts they traded in the deal.
The combine results are interesting. Nobody thinks Love is quicker than Rose & Augustine, but they are evidence that he's more athletic than expected.
We'll get a much better understanding of his quickness if and when he tries guarding athletic small forwards like Rudy Gay and Tracy McGrady. Although if McHale & Wittman's pre-draft comments are any indication, it's his vertical that will be put to the test while he mans the center position. So, I guess we can just hope that his mega-hops can slow down the Duncans and Howards of the league.
As for the "slow, fat, white guy..." stuff, I think the people making those comments are basing them more on his season at UCLA and less on his more toned physique at the pre-draft camps. There's no question that he was pudgy in college, but also that he lost weight and looks more athletic. The reasonable questions that some are asking is whether he can keep that weight off, and how it will affect his game if he does or doesn't.
To be optimistic about it, there's more changes that can happen in his body than just losing a little fat. Anyone who remembers the Clem Haskins gophers remembers how muscular the front court players became over their years hear. Love is still young, and it's not just losing fat that is likely to happen. Without being a very competetive athlete (cross country skier), I grew 2 inches and gained 20 pounds of muscle while maintaining 7% body fat. Love is still just a really athletic kid with some surprising basketball skills. If he could grow strong enough to defend (or at least push) the 5 spot, we could have a nice offensive front line that wouldn't be a disaster on defense. It would even be a 3 man rotation for the future if we get the European guy when Collins' is not longer servicable.
Not to be completely rose colored, butwWIth Miller playing the type of game that ages well, we start to look like we're solidifying a few spots on a good team (if only we didn't have to play any guards). Truly, if Mayo took a few years and then started putting up the numbers that Miller puts up, he would have been considered a good pick at number 3.
RL,
I'd love to see a comparison study. I'm not sure enough to quote any study, but my guess is that NBA basketball players range from 9 - 15% body fat percentage (you have to throw out guys like Oliver Miller who was over 20%) when I was competing in sports (long distance running) my body fat percentage was 4.5%. I was considered Skinny. In fact, on most scales anything under 5% is considered dangerously unhealthy. About the only athletes under 5% are distance runners and competitive body builders. I am now, in my 40s and no longer running competitively and have a body fat in the nieghborhood of 12 - 15% depending on the season I am measuring in. Anyone who calls me fat is kidding. I'm no longer skinny, but I am a long way from fat. As I said before, its been shown that white guys CAN jump, but not Fat guys, let alone Fat white guys.
Wim,
The way to build a championship is one step at a time. I think McHale and the Wolves made a step in that direction in trading for Miller, if only for how much he will help Al Jefferson's game over the coming years. Miller's game lends itself to staying effective well past his thirties. Shooting a jump shot with a stroke like Miller is a real talent - it is OJay Mayo like talent only Miller has already demonstrated that he can do it in the NBA. I'm not saying that Mayo won't, but we got Miller and Love.
And, RL, yes, I seriously believe they have playoff aspirations next year. You don't step on the floor if you don't. My belief is that they will hang in there till 2-3 weeks left in the season with possibilities of making the playoffs. If they are healthy at that time and they are on a roll, then, I say, much stranger things have happened before in professional sports, such as the Minnesota Twins success this year.
I seriously believe Al Jefferson is the type of player who can lead a team to a championship some day, if he is surrounded by the right players. I don't know exactly who those individual players are, but Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Rashad McCants and Randy Foye is a nice start. Then, you have a bench with Jason Collins, Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer and, possibly Sebastian Telfair (Or some other point guard). Its a nice roster to help figure out what Al Jefferson needs and there will be ample opportunities to address those specific needs in the future with free agents and draft picks.
So Kevin Love, a 19 year old guy with a personal trainer, who gets paid to work out has the same body fat content as a 40 year old guy that spends his day posting on NBA blogs? Why is that not reassuring to me? :)
Anyways, enough with the fat comments.
We obviously have very different perceptions of the overall talent on this roster. I wish I could share your optimism, but I just don't think we have the guns (yet) to be in the mix. And I don't believe that AJ is or probably ever will be a top 5 player at his position (be it 4 or 5). I can't get my mind around the notion of building around around a two-tooled player like him.
We just aren't good enough to be adding role players. We need a better core.
After reading all of the comments on this thread, I think there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, many people with more knowledge and experience watching basketball and particularly these two players think that Love can be as good or better than Mayo. There's no way of knowing this for sure right now, but just because it's uncertain doesn't mean that that favors Mayo. The people who like Love as a player aren't being naive homers; they're going off of scouts' opinions and detailed stats. The reason the Wolves made this trade was because they don't think Love is a role player; they think he'll be an impact player. The addition of a role player doesn't lead to some people writing that the Wolves could have a great offensive tandem inside. Love can already shoot college 3's, rebound, pass, score in the post, and play center for one of the best defensive teams in college basketball, and he matches up at least decently, measurement-wise, with very good players like Boozer, West, and Horford. Why should it be held against West and Boozer that other NBA teams were stupid enough to pass on them? In addition, there's as much of a possibility that Mayo turns out to be as good as a guy like Miller as there is that he turns out to be as good as Dwyane Wade. One of the reasons people have praised this trade is because of the possibility that Mayo won't be much or any better than Miller (one of 10-15 guys to finish in the top 50 in points and rebounds last year), which means that the Wolves might have received two really good players for the price of one.
Second, teams become good through having talented players who fit together. The Wolves didn't fit that well together last year, yet they still finished fairly well after the first 40 games. If they've added more size, which was a weakness, more offensive talent, which was a weakness, and have a more balanced roster, why wouldn't they win at least 10 more games? That, in turn, would make their younger players more valuable, keep them eligible to keep the Clipper pick, and give them 2-3 draft picks plus the young players and expiring contracts they already have for possibly getting better players. A team can trade two decent players for one good player and/or two good players for one All-Star. Every player on an NBA team has value to someone; think about how many guys the Wolves have traded in the past two years that were considered unwanted by other teams.
RhinoLove wrote:
> I don't believe that AJ is or probably ever will be a top 5
> player at his position (be it 4 or 5).
Amen brother Love, I am in your choir.
Shall we pray?
Dear Lord, we pray that the weighty scales in the eyes of McHale may soon fall away and that we may then rejoice here along the frozen prairie - thy will be done. We pray that no one drinks the Kool-Aid concocted by McHale and his marketing department.
We pray also that Glen Taylor's sight might also be restored and that he change his miserly ways so that someday the Timberwolves faithful might be rewarded with a team that can contend for at least a Western Conference semi-final.
In the name of James Naismith and the Holy Peach Basket we pray,
Let it be.
Good luck Levi. I've been banging this drum for the last year to little avail.
Pro sports being what they are, it seems that every team has to at least pretend they have a superstar player on their team. I can stomach this for marketing purposes. No harm in duping the local fans a little so they stay interested, right?
It becomes a problem, when you start believing your own bs, and making personnel decisions based on delusions like "Big Al is a budding superstar" and "Randy Foye is the point guard of the future".
This is the crux of why I don't like the trade. I am not saying that Mayo is much, much better than Love. I am saying that the Wolves should have done more with the trade down than dump contracts and pick up a veteran role player like Miller. We need to strike some gold in the draft if we are ever going to become a good team again, and we needed to get more picks to get there.
It is simply the fact that the #3 pick is a better asset than the #5 pick, and I don't feel that we got a great return on the swap. Again, that could change if we are able to turn Mike Miller into some (draft) lottery tickets down the road. But on the face of it, I don't like this deal.
I don't get these people who keep trying to call Miller a role player. He is arguably the best shooter in the NBA and is an excellent rebounder. That is not a role player. If we want a lottery draft pick for him all we have to do is pick up the phone and make a call. He is not old and is the kind of player that any team that has aspirations of going far in the playoffs would kill for. So we got both a killer player for us now and a very highly tradeable commodity. Miller is the best player in the trade right now and could very easily be the best player in the trade down the road. Mayo or Love is 50/50 that either of them will ever be better than Miller is right now.