(AFP/Getty Images/Chris Graythen)
In just a few hours, the San Antonio Spurs will either add another bullet point on their dynasty-like resume, or flip the championship torch toward the winner of the Hornets-Lakers series. I called the series for the Spurs in 6 or 7 and will gladly ride my choice-is-made-for-me decision to pick San Antonio until I see an opponent drive the stake through their enormous heart.
Have six relative blowouts in a row ever been this much fun to watch? Whoever owns home court seems to exert their will over the other team--to the tune of double-digits. Here's why I think that changes tonight:
* The Spurs have three guys who come up huge at crunchtime. In what order does New Orleans seal them off? If I'm Byron Scott, I try and single-cover Tim Duncan with Tyson Chandler and pray for lenient refs. If the Hornets can limit perimeter ball movement and force Ginobili to put it on the floor rather than pop treys from outside, the odds of victory rise in their favor. If Ginobili is the Spurs' leading scorer and gets more from behind the arc than he does in the paint, I don't see how the Hornets win. And that's what I think is going to happen.
* David West's aching back. Chris Paul is becoming as reliably spectacular as LeBron or Kobe, but if West is at all compromised, Paul will need a game for the ages--say, 35-40 points and 12-18 assists--to put his team into the conference finals. Peja has been a pleasant surprise a couple of times in this series--more than just a catch and shoot guy--but I don't think he exerts his will over Bowen in a Game 7. If West doesn't get his usual 24-38 points, it will have to be Pargo or MoPete or maybe Julian Wright, plus elevation in Paul's numbers. BTW, the Spurs fans chanting for Horry after he put an extra nudge into West's sore back the other night, plus all the flopping and bitching and Pops hack-a-whoever, plus the innate charm of West, Paul and Chandler, has this confirmed lover of Spurs style basketball not minding very much if New Orleans short-circuits that San Antonio legacy tonight.
* Veterans off the bench. It still blows my mind that the Spurs have Kurt Thomas. When teams are as closely matched as these two, having a tough, smart vet who knows when to shoot and when to pass, when to foul and when to concede the hoop, when to show hard on the pick and roll and when to stay home--and he's either playing beside Tim Duncan or giving Duncan a precious breather--is huge. Then there are the outside gunners: Finley, Barry, Horry, and even Udoka is no spring chicken. The pressure is really on the Hornets bench, especially Pargo and Wright, to negate that advantage. It might happen, but a better case can be made that it might not.
Of course Hornets' fans have some nice cards to play in their game-winning scenario. Paul consistently gets in the paint and drives the Spurs nuts. Chandler and the oddly timed double team frustrate Duncan. West has enough pain-killers and will-power to work his marvelous midrange game, a platter of foul line jumpers and left block left handers mixed with the occasional transition hoop off turnovers. Parker gets joustled off his game. And this young and very talented team doesn't know from pressure, expects and then experiences their four straight home thrashing of the older, finally vanguished Spurs.
Just before yesterday's Celts-Cavs Game 7 I had decided to pick Detroit over Boston or Cleveland over Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals. Then I saw the game. Hey, the Celtics have a go-to guy, and with it, a genuine pecking order! Okay, give me the Celts over the Pistons.
I understand that going with Boston at this juncture is as shaky as picking the Spurs tonight. And I know the Pistons have formidable matchups for each one of the big three--Prince on Pierce, 'Sheed on KG, Rip on Allen. Plus Jason Maxiell might be a tad too quick for Kendrick Perkins and Chauncey Billups a tad too large for Rajon Rondo. But in retrospect, I'm sort of amazed the Celtics survived two series without having established alphas and betas among their stars. That's an incredible amount of uncertainty that no longer exists: This is Pierce's team on the offensive end as much as it is KG's on the defensive end. I know Prince did a nice job on him in the three games they played this season; that the numbers favor KG being the man. But Pierce just got through with seven games against LeBron James; Prince is going to feel like balsa wood after that.
That said, the Pistons have a big edge in the backcourt. If Eddie House drinks the same crate of adrenaline he swallowed for Game 7, I'd stick him on Billups for a little rubber hose action. Even so, it is time for Rondo to step up his consistency; he needs to stick more open jumpers (and take more treys to open up the floor), and either get more steals or draw more charges--generate turnovers on Detroit, in other words, to be truly effective. As for Rip Hamilton on Ray Allen, well, hopefully Allen sleptwalked through the Cavs series to store up energy to chase Hamilton through multiple picks. And that Game 7 plan of putting House and Rondo and Allen into a rotation, until Allen's shooting eye warrants more minutes, should remain in effect.
All the games during the regular season were low scoring affairs, but I expect that to rise some this time; the Celts are freed from uncertainty and the Pistons should score plenty from midrange according to Flip's fat playbook. Who knows, the winner might even hit 100 one of these times.
Celtics in 7, with each team winning once on the road.
Quick hits...
Aside from Kobe, the most valuable Laker in the Jazz series was obviously Derek Fisher. How classy is the Utah franchise for letting Fisher go so he could have a better place to take care of his daughter? The Jazz were not only deprived of a gutsy, cool-headed crunchtime performer, but Fisher spent the previous two years helping Deron Williams learn the offense Fisher wound up defending. That was a huge advantage.
But we'll get into the Lakers during the Western Conference Finals preview in a day or so.
Count me among those who think Mike D'Antoni in New York is idiotic. Hey, it's not too late for a coaching swap: Scott Skiles to the Knicks, where he knocks Curry's and Zach's heads together and gets Balkman and Lee excited about real 94-foot basketball; and D'Antoni to Milwaukee, where Redd and Mo Williams and Yi and Bogut are tailor made for his flash and pass go-go ball.
Last and least, my uninformed preferences on Wolves' draft picks:
Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Lopez/trade down
At #3, I really like Mayo. I think you could trot out Foye and Mayo at the 2 guard positions and be pretty happy that they will distribute the ball well between the two of them.
I remember before the year when Mayo was THE top prospect...I think he really suffered in Tim Floyd's offense (run the clock down for 30 seconds and hand mayo the ball).
For the record, I would not shop the pick, act like you really have the guy picked out, and keep it unless someone totally blows you away.
I agree with you guys so much...
Personally, I don't think that McCants or Foye or Jaric's up side is any where near OJ Mayo.
Mayo will blossom I beleive. Lopez will be a good center in the League, but I don't see super star potential in him.
Oh- Chicago gets their home town boy..Cleavland got their home town boy, Coincidence? Shaq, Duncan, --- the NBA is about money and bringing money out of markets that will spend it. Chicago is used to having a good basketball team, the market was ripe to be plucked. Is it any surprise?
The good thing is.... Kirk Hinrich is now available.
Do you guys think there is any chance that Chicago would go for Beasley? Well, Miami would still pick up Rose.
The Wolves would be so awsome to get a franchise changing player. Not to say you can't find one at the 3 spot. But damn damn damn damn...
Ugh. I never believed the Lottery Conspiracies until today.
Way to rig it for Chicago and their Chicago boy, Stern.
Way to still make sure Wade gets Beasley, Stern.
Way to dick over the Wolves again, Stern.
I pray McHale trades Foye or McCants and picks Mayo. That is the only play right now. But that won't happen.
Get ready for the Brook Lopez era. Buy plenty of tissue to wipe the tears.
I'm having a hard time seeing all the hate on Lopez. I don't think he's going to be a superstar. Lopez-though very well could be an above-average NBA Center. He's a 7'0 with a NBA body, who can run the floor and was a Third-Team All American as a Sophomore. His Skill-set including the ability to be effective in the High Post would seem to be a good compliment to Jefferson. He is more athletic and skilled than Felton Spencer. He improved a good deal between his Freshman and Sophomore years including adding about 20 lbs of muscle. At the same time at Stanford he wasn't surronded by great talent to open up the floor for him. He seems to have the type of skill-set we really need with Jefferson.
At the same time-I do like Mayo. Although- the last thing- we need is another 2G. No one would dispute the C position being more difficult to fill than 2G. Mayo doesn't provide much of an upgrade over McCants. At the same time- Lopez's upside is miles ahead of Mad-Dog, C.Richard and anyone they could get in the 2nd round.
This isn't meant to hate on Mayo. I could make a argument why I like him as a player. The only question I am asking why the Hostility towards Lopez?
I couldn't believe it... The BULLS?!?!? FIRST?!? Whatever. I was pretty sure we'd wind up with the third, because we are just not that lucky. I have seen the pick done both ways in various mock drafts and while I like Mayo's upside, I do not think that McHale will pick him because of McCants/Foye/Jaric. The possibility is there that they do draft Mayo and then trade him and another player( Jaric?) for a proven big.... Nope sorry won't happen. I look for Brook Lopez to be a wolf and three more years of waiting.... while Mayo becomes a superstar... Also projecting out into the second round was the pick up of Ty Lawton from NC. One more reason for McHale not to take Mayo... Keep the faith!
I am actually really ok with Mayo.
Call it far fetched, but that's what the draft is in a sense of prediction.
You try to predict how good a player will be, or possible can be.
If someone said, you have a Kobe Bryant in the making with OJ, which might very well be a possibility, why would you pass up on him?
But I beleive that the Wolves need talent. After Bease and Rose, I would have to say Mayo.
I also am not opposed to putting up any player on our team as trade bait. That being said.. It looks like it's going to be some fun times ahead:)
I'm excited.
just give me Mayo. I can't bear to watch Lopez lumber up and down the court
3rd pick in a two player draft, This reeks of Shaq-Zo-Laettner. I feel like jumping through a window.
Mayo makes Shaddy a permanent sixth man (or trade bait), and he doesn't solve much unless he develops into a 25/5/5 guy. That's really the only positive at this point.
If they take Brook Lopez at 3 I will probably cry myself to sleep for a month.
What's so bad about Lopez. He's a legit 7 footer, he's coordinated and he's smart. Sure, his game isin't quite NBA ready but he's a rookie. The wolves are years away anyway. Finally we will have a talented center to play by Jefferson. (what will Britt write about?) The last thing the Wolves need is another guard. Get used to Lopez fellas, he's commin.
Cheezy B, while I agree that the Wolves don't need another guard, they certainly don't need Felton Spencer 2.0. To be honest, my experience viewing Lopez was limited to the NCAA tourney, and he looked decent, however I just don't see him as a franchise player (or even a second banana) at any point during his career. Sure, he'd plug the hole at the 5 and get Al back to his natural position, however you really shouldn't be looking for a stopgap with the #3 overall pick.
Simply put, Mayo would have been the #1 overall if not for the "One-and-done" rule, so if the Wolves can get him at 3 they have to take him. Foye and Sebby T run the point, Mayo runs the 2, Jaric and Brewer spell eachother at the 3, and some sort of Al/Cookie Monster/Richard mashup takes care of the 4/5 for another year until we can draft a big man with our last lottery pick before the Clippers get ours in 2010. I can live with that, but missing out on the Beasley/Rose sweepstakes still hurts.
The third pick is such a double-edged sword in this draft. It gives the 1st Ave country club a built-in excuse for screwing it up; "it was a 2 player draft", etc. The fact that Laettner was also the third pick got me thinking and I checked out the 1992 NBA Draft. This is strange, but 6 players selected in the first round (Laettner, Laphonso Ellis, Gugliotta, Spree, Malik, Anthony Peeler) ended up playing for the Wolves at some point in their career as well as the two 2nd round picks from that year (Chris Smith and Marlon Maxey). Eight players from one draft...whoa.
I doubt that O.J. Mayo would have been the #1 last year (Oden, Durant). Even if he would have been that is no reason to disregard everything we have learned about him in the last year. I watched him in a few games and he reminds me of Ben Gordon. Their college numbers are pretty close. Mayo 20.7pts/3.3ast/4.5reb, Gordon (soph) 19.5/4.7/4.2. Gordon is a good player but not a franchise player. I don't know much about Lopez's personality but if he's smart and coachable I think we should take the big.
I think they have 3 choices:
1- Select their top rated 3 (probably Gallinari)
2- Take Mayo if they were geared to take Rose
3- Trade down for CDR or Budinger
I really don't think Lopez is in the mix for the 3rd pick. They need a guy who can play on the wing and whether that's an off-guard or a 3, they can find better value with a big guy at the top of the 2nd than they can with their big pick. If I were them, the 1st call I'd make would be to the Clips to see what it would take to move picks; perhaps they would swap for a return of the Wolves' future #1 plus a 2nd rounder. Let them have Mayo or Lopez while the Wolves move down and get a solid wing man or a big in a bit more favorable position.
I should throw in Joe Alexander with that last point. I think he's going to shoot up the draft board for a lot of teams.
I think the main problem with Lopez is that his rebounding was subpar in college. He should have dominated the boards and played great defense. It should have been easy for him to dominate on defense. Instead he let his brother play defense and rebound.
My question is then, why did he not play defense? You can certainly teach defense, but the most important aspect is the desire to play great defense. Lopez clearly doesn't have it. So what's the use of having another big guy (Lopez and Al) who want to be great offensive players but have very little desire to play great defense?
Of course, there is also little evidence that Mayo has any interest in defense. Hopefully the wolves won't take the the only player that is a total bust. Stacey King, may McHale remember you and not get burned in the draft.
Mayo is actually a pretty damn good defender. Check out his performance against Memphis (Rose: 9 points and 4 assts) early in the year and his 2 lockdowns on UCLA's Westbrook (4 and 13 points). He also locked up Jerryd Bayless (10 and 8 points) in their 2 meetings. He would instantly be the best defender on the Wolves as well as a guy who could shoot from outside while being a threat to put it on the floor with both hands. If this team was geared to take Rose, there is nothing that should hold them back from extending the same thoughts to Mayo. There will be a similar thing going on next year between Memphis bound Tyreke Evans and USC bound Demar Derozan. The bottom line is in the case of Mayo and Rose and of Evans and Derozan, they're both the best 2 guards in their respective classes and there's not that much of a difference between them. However, USC's offense is slower and more plodding than Memphis' is so there is a systemic gap that makes one player look more enticing than the other. The Wolves have to take their highest ranked 3 or Mayo with this pick if they don't move it.
Now that we know it's #3, it's time to start thinking about trade options. Here are the draft-pick combos that might be available if another lottery team really likes a guy after Rose and Beasley and the Wolves aren't so set on one guy:
LA Clippers: #7 and our first rounder from the Jaric-Cassell swap
Seattle: #4 and #24
Memphis: #5 and #28
New Jersey: #11 and #21 (plus other considerations)
Should the Wolves be thinking trade?
If the Wolves trade the pick, we all know what's going to happen: Mayo will become an all-star just like Roy did. They have the third pick in a respectable draft and they have to use to try to get a potential star, not trade it away to make up for past stupid moves or try to get more "value" or fill positions. Mayo clearly has the most star potential, not to mention the capability to be an entertaining player (unlike Lopez) and the Wolves would be crazy to pass him up.
On a side note, Mayo's game sort of reminds me of Roy: Very patient with deceptive quickness, a good passer and excellent shooter. I think it's very possible he ends up just as good a pro as Rose.
Any opinions out there on how Mayo's game would work in our half court offense? We can't forget how Brewer floundered and Foye regressed in a system ill suited to their more transition oriented games. Guys like Granillo and Bayless clearly seem ill suited for a deliberate, pound the ball into Jefferson type game.
Mayo would give McCants a run for being best shooter on the team, and he's a better defender, and an Underrated passer.
I don't buy the notion that an offense revolving around Jefferson needs to be a deliberate, slow-paced one. He needs playmakers on the perimeter, but that doesn't mean the offense can't be uptempo. Remember the two home games against Phoenix? He had huge numbers in both games, and they were played at a quicker pace. Orlando, Toronto, and Utah are three teams who revolve around post play while playing at a faster pace. Jefferson's a very instinctive offensive player, and those types of players are more equipped to go at the defense quickly and get a good shot.
I think the evidence proves otherwise. Jefferson put up big numbers against PHX because they play horrid (or rather no) post defense. I saw those games and Al did not do his scoring in transition. Jefferson is not a get up and down the floor, adept passing big man like Bosh, Howard, or even Boozer
Not saying the guy can't transform his body and his game to become more versatile, but he's not there yet. Instilling an offense that revolves around a Jefferson type means that guys that are more suited to a more open, quick pace are not going to be maximized. It's also a style that puts the short and/or thin player at a disadvantage, unless they are high percentage perimeter shooters.
The trade idea seems great in theory, but in a draft where the consensus thinking is that the talent level falls off dramatically after the first two picks, is it a bit of a pipe dream to think that teams in the #4-7 slot are going to give up additional picks in order to move up a few slots? Perhaps a few more blue chips will emerge once workouts begin, but as of now, I've got to think most GMs are ambivalent between a #3 and a #7.
How about those Celtics? You can't count out Detroit, but it looks like things are clicking again for the guys in green. Celtics in six?
It's in no way a pipe dream. Every year, teams find players who they particularly like, even if the consensus by the media is that there's little difference between one player and another. If they're uncertain about whether they'll get him, they move up, even if they didn't have to.
That's one of the main reasons teams do move up, because usually they can't move up to get a sure thing. Two years ago, Portland moved up from 4 to 2 to take LaMarcus Aldridge, and everyone said they could've gotten him at 4. In the same draft, Chicago moved up three spots to pick Thabo Sefolosha when many hadn't heard of the guy.
It's not whether a team can get a player at their slot; it's whether they think they can get them. Who knows whether it would happen this year? Just because the Wolves are involved doesn't mean we should assume it won't. We're not the only NBA fans who thinks our team is unlucky. Someone might be wowed by Gallinari, or Randolph, or Bayless, or Mayo and want to make sure they get that player. By the way, all of these players are guys who have been linked to the Wolves.
I think some teams, Clips especially, might think Mayo is a notch above 4-7 that's worthy of giving up a future 1st Rounder that's protected for a few more years. With the Thornton/Brand(assuming he's brought back)/Kaman front line, Mayo could round out a pretty nice looking team. Waiting until 7 will take Mayo and Bayless out of the picture, and now they've got Eric Gordon or Russ Westbrook instead. It could be our last step in cleaning up old messes of Ricky Davis and Marko Jaric trades, and still give us a helpful player like Gallinari.
I like OJ Mayo, but some of those ideas might be better. Of them, I like the LA Clipper idea the best, since who the hell knows how long we'll suck and we might just lose an unprotected pick in 2012. If the scouts like Gallinari or DeAndre Jordan and can get him at 7 with our old pick back, I wouldn't really care about losing out on Mayo. That said, he's the guy we take at 3 if we stay there.
Since I refuse to give up on Derrick Rose, I'm throwing this out there:
Chicago picks Beasley for his low-post scoring, feeling confident in Kirk Hinrich at point for the future, and filling out a very solid lineup of:
Hinrich
Gordon
Deng
Beasley
Noah
(I'm not sure they take Rose when they can throw that lineup out there for the next decade).
Now, Miami is in a situation of being one of the few teams that won't see much benefit from Derrick Rose, since his skill set is almost identical to Dwayne Wade's. They both are great dribble penetrators, good passers, but not good catch & shooters. It just doesn't make sense, even if there are reports that say Riley loves him. Maybe they think it would be better to have more of a shooting point guard who doesn't necessarily try to create for others, since Wade does all their dribbling anyway. Maybe the kind that's young and just shot 41.2% from downtown and would actually compliment D-Wade as his backcourt mate. And, maybe they like Brook Lopez to fill the 5-spot. Miami could swap picks with us, get Foye, and their old first rounder back. Would they rather have:
Rose
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Blount
or
Foye
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Lopez
+ (mid-first round pick they would have lost to MN in 2009)
3 Big If's there:
If Chicago passes on the hometown kid for the post-scorer;
If Miami recognizes that Rose-Wade doesn't mesh well; AND
Minnesota is willing to suck up the pride, trade Foye, and leave a lineup of:
Rose
McCants
Brewer or Gomes
Jefferson
Center that we still don't have, but won't get by picking Mayo anyway.
I think our record might not be as good right away with this group, since McCants can't play defense and shouldn't start, and we still haven't addressed the center position with a high pick or big signing, but it is the play that puts us on track for bigtime future success. Alright, a lot of effort was put into that, so I should probably get out of this denial and starting thinking realistic.
Hellz yes I'd like me some O.J. Mayo. People sleepin' on him, what with the whole, uh, ya know, Fuck the NCAA. Bunch of fascists.
Rose/Beasley/Mayo, though, yes. That is my preference as well. I have nothing more to add, I think.
A Hornets-Spurs comment, and a Wolves lotto comment:
I only caught the end of the NO-SA game, but I think each Hornet took (and missed) at least one huge shot in the final minutes--except Chris Paul. Maybe I'm missing one, but I saw Pargo, West & Peja chucking away with no luck, while their MVP candidate settled for mere distribution. Just about everybody takes CP3 over Deron Williams in that ever-growing debate, but after watching D-Will put it on the line each night vs. LA, I'm leaning his way on it. He'll do (almost) all of the distributing throughout the game, but can also hit a new gear in crunchtime and take the big shots. They may not always go in, but you at least know you're going with the best you've got.
If the Wolves somehow win this lottery, they're not trading the pick. Derrick Rose would save the franchise. He's a LeBron James-Jason Kidd hybrid like we've never seen before at point guard. Pair him with Al Jefferson and you've got a nucleus for the next ten years (well, we thought that once before around 1996, but I'm blocking that from my memory). I realize we still have the hole at center, but that'll have to be addressed later or with a less important pick. Maybe his teammate Joey Dorsey at 31 or 34. If nothing else, he'd be a bruiser down low and Ben Wallace did pretty well in that role at 6'9". If we get the 2 pick and Rose goes 1, I guess it depends on whether Beasley looks like a small forward in his workouts. It doesn't make sense to cement Big Al at center, especially by drafting a forward who likes to crank up a lot of shots. However, if Beasley looks like a legit small forward that can open up space inside for Jefferson, he's our guy. If not, there's bound to be a huge demand for that pick and we'd have to start listening. 3 for me is OJ, but I'm also fine with trade talks. 4 would be Jaryd Bayless, but only if it involves trading one of our small guards, and anything beyond that I hope we trade down and hope last year's guys improve a lot.
Re Hornets - Spurs Game 7
I admit that I'm usually pulling for the odd duck in the lineup - and for the Spurs, that's Oberto. Nothing in his boxscore would seem to be worth his paycheck. But without his defensive hustle and rebounding, and subtle play like screening his own man off from Tim Duncan in the paint, the Spurs would have been toast much earlier in the series.
And what a 4th quarter. Duncan (0 for 6) and Ginobilli (0 for 4) earned their journeyman bricklayer cards. Actually, several times I thought Duncan was lucky to hit the backboard, never mind the rim. The Spurs only sank six baskets in the 4th and were saved by their free throw shooting (11 for 12). I thought the aforementioned Oberto kept saving the bacon, often stopping Chris Paul's penetration long enough for his assigned defender to recover or even altering CP3's shots in the lane.
From the "Hmmm" files, I'll ask you why the veteran Finley did not play at all in the 4th, in spite of being +14 in the 11 minutes he'd played in the first three quarters.
My prediction: It will be a Lakers / Celtics Finals this year.
Britt
I disagree on the Spurs, since I think the their old bench is starting to show. Right now Horry is useless even as a 10 minute a game guy (1.5 ppg/1.8 rpg/21% FG/23% 3P/2.5 fpg/8.6 mpg in the postseason). I remember reading somewhere that he's going to retire after this season. I hope he does, so we remember him as Big Shot Bob instead of as the 12th man on the Timberwolves. Finley is quite a step up (comparatively), though his shooting % (40.9%) is concerning and his rebounding (1.7 per game in 20.5 minutes per game) is alarming. Barry is okay in this series, but he's dropped 9% in FG% between the first series and this one, and 20% in 3P% (and like the other 2, he hasn't rebounded a thing). Rebounding has been a big problem for the Spurs, since they've only won on the glass twice (they're currently at -14 for the series). Another thing worth noting is that they're highest shooting % in New Orleans has been 42.5%. Whether that's a fluke destined to correct itself or a sign of things to come, I don't know, but I'd bet on their road number holding true, along with their home/road 3P% splits (41.6%/31.8%). On the plus side, Idoka has been outstanding this series (57.1% FG/ 55.6% 3P), and should get most of Horry's minutes and some of Finley minutes if the Spurs want the best chance to win.
In regards to D'Antoni, I think it's a smart move by the Knicks (a dumb one by D'Antoni, though), as D'Antoni's reputation as a miracle man is going to do a lot to keep that locker room in line, I think. It would probably help if he gets a strong say in personnel decisions, but I'm not sure Skiles would do better. Remember, Larry Brown (a Skiles-like coach in temperment) basically quit on this team half-way through his first year. I doubt a guy like that isn't going to work out in the New York locker room.
As for S'n'P's question on the draft from the last thread, I think the Wolves should look at moving that pick, no matter the position, for a young big man (especially if they can trade the 2 second rounders for a mid-rounder to get CDR). The problem is there are really only three youngs guys to look at right now, Biedrins, Bynum, and Okafor. I wouldn't want to trade that pick for Bynum's knee right now (I don't even know if that's legal under the CBA), so he's out, unfortunately. Okafor is more of a 5/4 than a 5, though according to 82 games he's about as good at either position. Biedrins might have had the most bytes written about any non-Wolves player in the threads this season, so I'll skip my reasoning on him. The issue with both of those players is that they're in their qualifying offer season, so the Wolves would have to pull a sign-and-trade to get them. Personally, I would be willing to part with a #1/#2/#3 pick plus Antoine Walker and Rashad McCants for either of those players (Walker and McCants gets you to about $10 million in salary, which is about what I'd want the Wolves to spend on one of those players. The key, of course, is that it can't be more than Jefferson's salary). Part of what I like about this (especially if it's #1 or #2), is that Charlotte could use a player like either Rose or Beasley, and Golden States seems to love players like Rose and Beasley. If we do a trade for one of them, the Wolves look like:
1 - Foye/Jaric
2 - Snyder/Brewer
3 - Gomes/Brewer
4 - Al Jefferson
5 - Okafor or Biedrins
The sticky part is what to do next. This setup, I think it would be incumbent on the Wolves to use the draft for either another young center (Robin Lopez) or trade up for a swingman (Chris-Douglas Roberts). In any case I think trading the pick away yields the best results for the Wolves, as it gives them a better player than I feel they can get from the draft.
Until we see the draft position it's probably kind of premature to talk about specific trades, but I think the obvious targets would be Chicago, LAC, and Milwaukee (if they're crazy enough to talk about moving Bogut...which I don't think they are). The Clips could give their top pick this year and the Wolves' pick back for #2 and I'd be perfectly happy with that, as they could get a decent wing man in this draft and then work with 2-3 first rounders next year to fill in the gaps. Plus, they'd still have the top 2 2nd rounders that they could sink into players like (hopefully) Richard Hendrix, Ty Lawson, JR Giddens, Shan Foster, Trent Plaisted, or Pat Calathes. (Hat tip to Andy G from a suggestion over at CH.)
The do-over factor would be kind of annoying but ultimately beneficial.
Chicago could be an interesting target. Noah and Thomas would be the obvious choices and maybe something could be done to move the pick plus a player for the 2 players and their pick. Hell, I'd do it for Noah and the pick as long as Budinger or CDR were in the range where the Bulls were picking. Foye, CDR, Gomes, Jefferson, and Noah is something you could start getting excited about....especially with the 2 2nd rounders still in tact and with 1-3 1st rounders next year. Noah is exactly the type of player that would work alongside Jefferson. That type of player doesn't exist in this draft.
I guess we'll find out more tonight. Here's hoping for the best.
And the best would really be that the Wolves get the #2 pick. I'm not sure of the odds, but I think the Wolves would be best served if the decision was made for them and they got whomever remained between Rose and Beasley.
And the third pick just creates a nightmare of choices. Here's hoping the Wolves somehow land the second pick.
I've teetered back and forth on my "you-can't-possibly-take-another-six-nothing-guard-with-your-top-pick" stance all year in regards to Derrick Rose. I was off it for a while but now I'm back on to stay. The main reasons for this are that Rose's stock couldn't be higher due to the current point guard fad and his tourney play and that the gap between him and Mayo isn't as big as I originally thought it was. If the Wolves end up with Rose and the 2nd pick, I'm betting that they could ask for the moon with a few clubs and get it...namely the Bulls, who would love to have the home town kid running the point. I could learn to live with Foye if they pulled off something that brought back a mid round 1st and a solid young big man. Of course, I'm way ahead of myself. They'll likely end up with the 5th or 6th pick and I'll have to pre-order my Kevin Love jersey.
Let me try to rein you back in to the Rose Camp with a couple of key points that have nothing to do with CP3 and Deron Williams starting the new PG fad:
1) Rose is incredibly athletic--much moreso than Randy Foye or Rashad McCants, and has a Dwayne Wade/young Michael Jordan-type of hanging jumper and ability to use the backboard that will be huge in the NBA's world of man-to-man defense. As a quick reference, here's a short clip of a high school game he played in where he looked more like Dominique Wilkins than Isiah Thomas. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB5cqgR32u0
2) Al Jefferson needs to get easy buckets. Foye's return hurt Jefferson's game--at least I thought, since Telfair was no longer there to feed him the rock. Bassy has shortcomings of his own but his consistent play showed some of the value that is brought out of Jefferson when he plays with a pass-first point. Now, we can get one with all that ability + the ability to finish in the paint.
3) You're right about preparing for the worst--but I only have 5 more hours before this dream is crushed.
I asked this one over at Canis: Do you want Rose to be more like Tony Parker or Chris Paul?
It will be interesting to see just how strong and athletic Rose is in pre-draft workouts. Foye is pretty damn athletic and strong and Shaddy's freakish length makes up for a lot in the athletic department.
Rose is still a smallish guard (6'2" with an average reach) that will have issues getting his shot off near the end of the game come post season play with no consistent outside jumper. If the Wolves take him, they'll hvae Foye, Shaddy, Rose, Jaric, and Brewer with a massive log jam in the backcourt...with Jefferson, Gomes, Mad Dog and Richard bringing it on home in the front. If they get the chance to select him at the 2 spot, they'll have the most valuable movable commodity in the NBA at their disposal. Since you're spot on with point number 3, let me take one last chance at fantasy GM and say that if they get Rose with the 2nd pick, they should pick up the phone with Chicago and offer up Rose for Noah and the Bulls' 1st rounder. Hell, try to throw in Shaddy for Thomas. That way, they can tell Ben Gordon to have fun trying to find another team that will pay him $10 mil/year and go hog wild in free agency. Chicago gets cap space and the hometown kid; Minny gets a center and a decent wingman (maybe 2 if the Thomas dream works out). Last fantasy lineups please....
Foye/Jaric
CDR/Brewer
Gomes/Brewer
Jefferson/Richard
Noah/Richard
Hell, they'd still have the 2 2nd rounders. Let's throw in Trent Plaisted and Pat Calathes or JR Giddens and Richard Hendrix.
I have always appreicated your GM instincts S&P. The deal makes sense for both teams if the Wolves end up with Rose. But, I don't think it is going to happen. I just can't see McHale making that trade. If the Wolves get the 1 pick, I believe McHale will take Rose over Beasley. That is why I want the 2 pick. I, also, am a little hesitant on Rose and adding another guard to the logjam.
If the Wolves end up with Rose, I think the only trade we will see will be McCants or Foye and we won't get enarly the value we could get for Rose. But, as you and AndyG have already said, this discussion is all for naught because the Wolves will end up moving down.
But, I can feel something else in the air and that is that the Wolves do win it all this year and take Rose. Mayo ends up with the better NBA career. Beasley and Wade bring Miami back to respectability and ultimately another championship in the East, Telfair signs on as a backup for a contending team earning minutes in the rotation and it takes several years for the Wolves to figure out who amongst the guards and SFs for the Wolveswe can pair with Jefferson and Gomes in the frontcourt, while a competent center never does arrive to move Jefferson to the PF where he belongs.
The second pick might bring us a Beasley, Jefferson and Richard/2rd pick frontline to go with Foye/Telfari and McCants/Brewer at the gaurdspots and I like that scenario best.
Yeah, I don't think he'd move the pick either. After years of being inable to move up in the draft and when they finally do they trade the pick....that probably wouldn't go over too well with the majority of the viewing public (i.e. @900 fans :)).
Here's hoping for #1 and Beasley.
To answer your first question, I guess I'd say Paul--just because I like the way he manages his team and makes their offense function so smoothly for 48 minutes. Rose shows this type of ability, rarely forcing stupid shots and frequently finding others for open ones.
I guess our main disagreement is that I don't see him having trouble getting late-game shots. He's too quick with the ball and jumps to high on his very accurate pull-up jumper for me to worry about it. Something about those Memphis guys that they're more comfortable shooting off the dribble. This doesn't worry me as much with Rose, since the PG usually has the rock to begin with--as it does with CDR, who will need to improve his catch & shoot skills.
About the Noah idea--I haven't seen much of the pro-version of Noah. I read about his teammate-initiated suspension and the general struggles of that whole team so I figured he wasn't doing a whole lot of good, so far. I know he's a hard worker from seeing him play at Florida, but the hypothetical lineup you throw out there isn't going to beat Roy and Oden or Bryant and Gasol anytime soon. Each of the "Final 4" this year has at least 2 studs and we can't pass on a chance to get our 2nd, even if it prolongs the search for a solid center. Anyway, 13.4% or whatever aren't very good odds to begin with.
I'd add this: right now, Noah and Jefferson is every bit as hypothetical as Roy and Oden.
I'd also point to late-game iso plays that are run for wingmen. Points in the NBA are great through the 1st 3 1/2 quarters, but from Paul Pierce to Lebron to Kobe to Manu to...hell, Andre Igodala (sp), when crunch time hits, points run off to the side and watch the 1-on-1 game at the top of the key. I suppose Rose/Jefferson could go the Utah route and run the pick and roll down the stretch, but I don't think a player like Rose or even Chris Paul can get it done without having another guy be the premier late-game option.
As for Noah, he carried a 15+ PER with a decent PPR for a big in his rookie season. He passes well, gets to the line and doesn't require the offense to be run through him for him to be effective. I think the best shot the Wolves have at making this thing work is to go the Detroit route; get 5 professional starters and hope for the best.
Count me as one that would love to see Noah in Minny. Hell, I wanted to see him in Minny LAST year as I thought he'd be a very good pro. From what I saw of him this year, if anything I'm more confident in him now than I was then.
He'd be just about the most ideal complement to Big Al one could find outside of KG. He's a long, athletic 7-footer that plays defense and provides energy. He's also a former point-guard that is a very good passer and makes good decisions with the ball. If he can develop a Joe Smith-like mid-range jumper, and I don't see why he couldn't, he'd be just about the perfect match.
Fair enough--leave Portland out of it--that lineup can't beat New Orleans, San Antonio, LA, Utah, Houston or Dallas.
I agree that a bigtime two-guard is good to have, but LeBron, Kobe and Ginobili are not exactly coming out of each year's draft. Also, the Cavs and Celtics just showed the world how awful (for 6 out of 7 games) it can be to watch teams with no offense besides isolation sets for their big wing player. I think New Orleans would have won that series against either team in less than 7 games, due to their efficient offense that usually has them so far ahead that they don't need Michael or Kobe down the stretch.
Again, can't really comment on Noah since I don't know much about the season he had. I'm sure he'd help, but I think we could get something else without having to give up a real shot at adding a superstar.
Imagine if we do win this lottery. We can continue this argument for another month.
"Imagine if we do win this lottery. We can continue this argument for another month."
...or, you could join me in pre-ordering a brand new #42 Kevin Love Wolves jersey. With the 6th pick of the NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select...
I agree that no Manu or Kobe is coming out of this draft but I do think you could get lucky with a Rip Hamilton-esque player in CDR or Budinger.
I like those two--I also like Brandon Rush who plays both ends of the floor pretty well. He can't create his own shot like CDR, but he's a very good shooter and athlete.
We'll see about that Kevin Love jersey--let's hope not.
I've also heard good things about JR Giddens from New Mexico but I'd be lying if I said I ever saw him play.
Leave Biedrins out of the discussion -- he isn't going anywhere next season.
"Right now Horry is useless even as a 10 minute a game guy.."
I am so smart...S-M-R-T...
McCleak--
It happens to all of us at various points. That's the second part of that quote, "Nothing ventured, nothing gained." Well, nothing is lost either, and some folks would prefer not to say anything and then pretend they knew all along. I don't mind being wrong--and my accuracy last night probably means I'm due for a comeuppance in the near future--but it would really bug me if I couldn't venture an opinion/guess/prediction.
And that's what I like about McCleak and the rest of this board--it's loaded with people who don't mind offering their take in a reasoned and respectful manner.
Britt, tough to disagree with anything you say here. Nice synopsis and so far you are dead on based on 3 quarters of the SA-NO game.
McCleak, Take a deep breath and re-read what you just wrote regarding the upcoming draft. You'd really trade away a potential franchise player (Rose/Beasley/Mayo) on a rookie salary scale just to get a slightly above average big man that will saddle us with another $8-10M contract? That lineup you posted wins 30-35 games tops in the West! Positional need is the last thing a 22-win team should worry about. We need to keep drafting young talent until we hit the jackpot with one of these guys while maintaining maximum salary cap flexibility.
I don't consider this trading for position. I think it's making the best decision possible AND improving the weakest position on the team. I consider Rose/Beasley/Mayo to be 2/3/4th men on a good team. The only guy I see as a potential franchise player is Gallinari, and that's far too much of a high risk/high reward scenario for me. On the other side of this, Okafor and Biedrins are two of the top three 25 and under 6-10 and taller players in the NBA, not "slightly above average big men".
As for wins, the Wolves should be looking at 30-35 wins next season, right now. Statistically, a team at the Wolves level should improve by 8-9 wins the following season. If they can't do that, I think they should pull the trigger and clean house (Wittman and McHale).
Finally, go to 82 games and double check the +/- points by position/48 for those players. Okafor is +0.3 at center. Jefferson is +10.3 at power forward. Gomes, Snyder, and Foye are 1.3, -8.1, and -0.3. That comes out to a +3.5 from the starting five I listed. If you take that 3.5 and plug it into the expected wins formula, you can see that the 2008-2009 T'Wolves should win...50 games. Okay, now that we've stopped laughing, let's look at the backups I have listed. Jaric and Brewer obviously bring down those numbers a bit, since their +/- at the positions I listed are -4.3 and -9.1. But there are several things I think are worth noting about a trade like for Okafor (my preference over Biedrins).
1) It gives the Wolves a solid front-court. Jefferson plus Okafor (or Biedrins) is an excellent rebounding tandem. It would also be a much stronger defensive team in the paint, which would hopefully help staunch some of the problems on perimeter defense.
2) It puts Jefferson back at his natural position. It seems like a third of Britt's articles over the last season where about why Jefferson should be at power forward, so I'll skip it here.
3) Our young players should improve. I don't know if Jefferson can get much better (though I obviously hope so), but I think Foye and Brewer should have noticeably better seasons next year.
Given all of this, there are still plenty of holes to fix for the Wolves, but I think a time like this should be expected to win in the high 30s for a season. No, this does not make me McHale, as I don't believe that this team plus a draft pick is going to break 35 wins.
Finally, I'd like to say that I have never liked hoping for a lottery windfall. The odds of getting a franchise altering player are extremely low. For every Cleveland and New Orleans whose prince has come, there are the Atlantas, Bostons, Memphis, Clippers, and Indianas out there that are kissing frogs and getting nothing but slimy lips. S'n'P has a phrase for this: "and then something magical happened," which I think sums up draft pray perfectly. I think team building is a process where you do the best with what you have available. And the trade results of a top 3 pick are worth a lot more than what that pick can yield this year.
Finally, considering the Wolves position, I think it's worth discussing any scenario that doesn't involve trading Jefferson. And you (and, I suspect, a lot of people), made find trading off the draft pick to be foolish, but I think everything is worth discussing, if only so we can try to figure out ways for the Wolves to succeed.
If the wolves have an oppurtunity to draft Beasley and they decide that he can't play alongside Jefferson, I would definately trade Jefferson first. I think Beasley is going to become a much better player than Jefferson - his low post game isn't as refined, but he's a great post player with an outside shot and a drive. He is far superior athletically which means he has a chance to be an effective defender. Jefferson is a good player, very effective in a half-court game. But that's really all he can do - he doesn't give the team an option if they want to run the ball and he isn't able to hustle back on defense to stop other teams who do. Well, lets just hope this is a dillemna the wolves would have to face, but Okafor next to Jefferson doesn't sound as good as Okafor next to Beasley in my mind.
Of course, then we just have to trade for Rose and we're really set. ;)
Working backwards, I think D'Antoni to NY makes sense if only because he's a guy who can change the culture. If Isiah keeps sticking his nose where it don't belong, that team doesn't have a chance anyway. I'm skeptical, but if D'Antoni can take advantage of the Knicks few multi-faceted players (mostly Lee), and dump/limit Curry or Randolph, that team can make playoffs in a weak East.
I'm very excited about the game tonight. I really hope West is feeling better, and I've really started enjoying the Hornets playing style since I really started watching them over the playoffs. Let me qualify that: I love most of their starters + Wright, but MoPete, Bonzi, and Pargo have been wildly inconsistent. If this team had an ace defender at the SG/SF spot (for Ginobili then Kobe then Pierce), I'd give them more of a chance at the crown. But I also can't count out the Spurs until they're officially gone.
I also think there are some great matchups in the East now. Garnett/Wallace is the most compelling to me, but Rondo/Billups is going to be very interesting, especially after watching Delonte West for 7 games. How the younger Celts react to a veteran Pistons team will decide that series, and I'd like to point out that Stuckey is one of the few guys I'd call a "veteran rookie".