Let's start with the Celts disposing of Detroit in Game One of the Eastern Conference finals. The ESPN color crew was clearly in the tank for the Pistons during the pregame, on the supposition that having a week off after playing a numbskull Orlando Magic team was better than finishing off a grueling seven-game battle with the Cavs just 48 hours before. They were wrong, of course: If the Celts are going to be hurt by the war with LeBron and company, it will be later, 'round about Games Five, Six and Seven, and the erosion will be as much mental as physical. I expect the Pistons to play much better in Game Two. I also don't think the world will end for the Celts if they lose at home. They've never *had* to win a game on the road yet, and if they do I think, at least in this series, they will.
As for Game One itself, let's understand that the dynamic has shifted for the boys in green since the Cavs' Game Seven: Paul Pierce is the clearcut igniter on offense, be it passing, shooting, tempo, whatever. This is all to the good for Boston because it gives their next two offensive threats, Garnett and Rondo, the freedom to play off Pierce's decision-making. For KG it is a welcome luxury--he can concentrate on defense, where he almost never makes a bad decision, never mind choking, and still remain a guy you have to double-team in the low block at the other end. As Jeff Van Gundy pointed out last night, the pick and roll with Pierce and KG was very effective, and unless Jason Maxiell hits that extra gear like Paul Millsap occasionally achieved in Utah, it can be a Celtic bread-and-butter throughout, freeing up Pierce and KG for jumpers and drives, and almost guaranteeing the availability of safety valve dishes to Rondo. For Rondo it is luxury not to have to handle the ball all the time, which likewise frees him up for stellar defensive energy and open outside looks. You know all those shots Ray Allen is either missing or turning down? Give them to Rondo and Eddie House, especially if Billups is dinged up.
It was a joy to read Doc Rivers proclaiming his faith in Rondo in Marc Stein's Daily Dime at ESPN.com today. I've been waiting for people, but especially Rivers, to lavish praise and heavily massage Rondo's ego, rather than that idiotic comment he made in the Cavs' series about avoiding "heroic shots." But I understand I'm repeating myself here, so I'll let it go at that. Ray Allen? Lose all expectations for the guy, because he is pressing, and pressing hard. He is intelligently doing the other things to minimize his inability to stick the outside jumper, including ball movement, penetration, and decent defense. The Celts just have to consider him a 4th or 5th option right now, and muck along. And consider this: If the law of averages works itself out and Allen returns to vintage form with a vengeance, Boston has a viable shot at a championship. In fact that about the only way I see them beating either the Spurs or the Lakers.
Before we get into Lakers-Spurs, I want to harp back on the original point: Cleveland did Boston an enormous favor by pushing them to the brink and forcing them to configure different options and adjustments, and, most importantly, to determine a pecking order. These post-Cavs Celts are no longer democratizing the Big 3, and if the question were posed to them about who should take the game-ending shot to win or lose, both Pierce and KG wouldn't simultaneously say "Ray" as they did before the Atlanta series. Meanwhile, Kendrick Perkins is no longer having to fend off tag teams of bigs like Z and Wallace and Smith and Varejao and coping with LeBron knifing down the lane. Detroit can still win this series, of course: They are experienced and resilient and synergistically talented. But this Celtics team has found its groove through adversity, which makes it a lot tougher, and more complicated, for the Pistons to triumph than it was a couple of weeks ago.
Breaking down the Spurs versus the Lakers, it looks to be an immensely enjoyable, high-scoring affair. How does LA defend Tim Duncan, with Gasol, Odom, or mix-and-match? (This is when a healthy Andrew Bynum would really come in handy.) Do the Spurs really think Bruce Bowen is going to contain Kobe? Derek Fisher doesn't have the foot-speed for Tony Parker (and doesn't know the Spurs' sets and tendencies the way he knew Deron Williams and the Jazz), and at the offensive end, Odom will be his usual matchup nightmare. Lots of points are to be had here, especially considering that both teams are very adept at turning turnovers into buckets.
After watching the Spurs the last three or four years, plus the regular season this year, I made up my mind I'd pick them in every series until they lost or held the trophy. Before the playoffs began, I realized that if any team was going to test that faith, it would be the Lakers. They've got a cold-blooded closer in Kobe, a beautiful mixture of size, speed, and depth, and one of the few very coaches as wise and playoff-wizened as Pops. In my eyes, this is the real finals.
It's a cliche to say about any close, competitive series between two very deep teams, but the role players really do have a chance to tip the balance here. Ime Udoka seems to be as viable an option on Kobe as Bowen, and when Bowen inevitably gets toasted and/or in foul trouble, it will be interesting to see how Udoka fares. On the other side, Sasha Vujacic seems like the latest in a long line of players to pattern his game after Manu Ginobili, and if Vujacic can indeed hit those dagger treys and become the foul-drawing pest that is Manu the Great, it is a big lift for the Lakers. It is also not that far-fetched.
Kobe and Duncan are not only going to get theirs, they'll make sure their teammates share in the wealth. But can the Thomas/Oberto tandem stop Gasol, or hold him to mid-teens in points? How aggressively will Phil Jackson wield the Odom mismatch--I'd pound Odom off the dribble and in post-ups until San Antonio makes clear their response, then freelance off of that via Kobe and the three-point shooters. If Odom goes into one of his mental funks, it will be a huge problem for the Lakers; he really is the biggest wild card either way in this series.
San Antonio in 6 or 7. But the Lakers in 6 or 7 wouldn't exactly shock me.
Longtime readers know I basically punt the draft lottery and defer to other, wiser, observers of the college, high school, and international game. My guess/advice for the Wolves in the last column was to prioritize their draft options as Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Lopez/trade down. Now that the ping-pong balls have given them a #3 pick, my excitement and interest goes up a notch. Taking a player you think will be at least the third best performer who is eligible for the pros this season is a big, big chip. I know the conventional wisdom is that it is a two-player draft, and I have no reason to dispute that. But here are the #3 picks from 2000-2007:
2000 Darius Miles
2001 Pau Gasol
2002 Mike Dunleavy
2003 Carmelo Anthony
2004 Ben Gordon
2005 Deron Williams
2006 Adam Morrison
2007 Al Horford
The only flop is Morrison, and he still has a shot at redemption. Miles was a chucklehead, but when healthy, oh could he play. Dunleavy showed signs of becoming a player this year, while the stock of Gordon and Melo fell a bit from some lofty heights. Gasol, Williams and Horford are cornerstones. That's a pretty good historical record. And remember, that's just the #3 pick. If we look at the third best player taken in the first round from 2000-2007, it goes like this:
2000: K-Mart of Mike Miller (behind Pryzbilla and Turkoglu, bad draft)
2001: Gasol (behind Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler)
2002: Tayshaun Prince or Caron Butler (behind Amare and Yao)
2003: Bosh or Melo (behind LeBron and Wade)
2004: Luol Deng or Iguodala (behind D Howard and Jefferson)
2005: Bynum (behind Paul and Williams)
2006: Rudy Gay or Rondo (behind Roy and Aldridge)
2007: Kevin Durant (behind Horford and Oden, although you can flip 'em)
Okay, enough covering up my lack of detailed knowledge about these picks with thumbnail history. The abiding point is, this third overall pick is a very valuable commodity. It is hard to totally screw it up, and possible to resurrect your franchise. Kevin McHale says he likes eight people in this draft and others have said it is very deep. If true, the Wolves should consider a trade, especially if the guy(s) they like is somewhat under the radar. With that, I'll let my smart commenters take over.
Regarding Trading Down and McHale likes 8 players in the draft:
This talk scares me to death. If you look at any draft that didn't have the letters "K" & "G" in it, McHale has been a mess. Consistently. I can remember the Wolves turn at 14th a few years ago. The analysts on TV were going on and on about how Danny Granger and what a great talent he was, a great attitude, and could really grow into a nice player. The word on McCants? Head Case. Now we have Mr. Permanent Scowl on our team for life.
This might be the one time that McHale should listen to the fans & media, go against every instinct in his fiber and (in George Constanza like fashion) and go with the BPA. Mayo. Or obviously Beasley if he's available. Don't overthink. It's weird that you're in charge of our draft Kevin with your record, but let's not worry about that now. Go with Mayo
Bayless is not another Foye. He's a combo guard, but he's got a lot more potential to be special than foye. He's got special quickness instead of just normal nba guard quickness. He might be a whiner or a coach killer though, the wildcats had too much talent to lose like they did. Still, an intriguing player, and maybe the third most talented guy available.
Anyone who thinks Bayless is the second coming of Foye hasn't seen him play. People just say that because they're the same height and are both combo guards. Comparing Bayless to Foye is like comparing Dwight Howard to Ilgauskas. Bayless looks more like a young Iverson, Arenas, or Monta Ellis than Foye. His numbers at Arizona were comparable to Mayo's in every category, all while having to share the ball with Budinger while O.J. had a green light to shoot whenever he pleased. If you watch Bayless' youtube videos, you'll see that he is an incredibly quick, explosive athlete who also has a sweet jump shot. In fact, he is considerably more athletic and explosive than either Foye or Mayo. I know it's sacrilege right now to suggest that anyone other than Mayo (or maybe Lopez for the incorrect few) would be the right choice at number three, but it won't surprise me a bit if Bayless is a better pro than Mayo. I'm not saying that Bayless is a guaranteed all-star, but people are really ignoring him as a possibility. I think that if Bayless' workout is head-and-shoulders better than Mayo's (as Monta's was better than Jarrett Jack's and a few others' a few years ago when they worked out for the Wolves), we should draft him.
Also, sorry to double post here, but if the team needs a true point guard, trading down for augustin from texasmight be a good idea. I don't know though, about trading down at all, since we don't just have one huge hole. If we had four other good starters and just needed a point, traded down and grabbing dj augustin would make a lot more sense. Or if hadn't already been screwed so many times by speculative projects grabbing deandre jordan might make more sense. However, we really could use a guy who looks like he will contribute in the NBA as a starter at any position, except maybe pf, but pfs are so valuable in this league, having two isn't always a bad thing. Lucky for us, there's no pf we would take after beasley anyway besides maybe love if mchale feels like shocking everybody. Brook Lopez, Bayless and OJ Mayo all look like starters, so the third pick aint so bad. I guess.
The Celtics finally lost at home. Poor Garnett couldn't pull off any robert horrys with his three point attempts. I don't know, sometimes I think all this clutch stuff boils down to luck, the sample size of clutch moments is so small, can you really determine which players are clutch accurately? What if clutch is just an illusion created by selective memory or something along those lines?
given the virtual lock of lottery players for a year or two why aren't more folks intrigued with DeAndre Jordan? if people are comparing him (athletically) to d. howard then trade down, nab him and treat him as a project (a la bynum) and hope that as we build the squad he becomes a formidable post presence...not to mention that there aren't any players that look to be worth a 3rd pick with a team like the pups. extra picks and the highest potential in the draft, ROLL THE DICE!!!
I must say, watching Detroit when they're on--like last night--is pure joy. Every guy they throw out there is just so versatile and skilled. Add in their token alchedmy, smarts, and toughness--which again, was on display last night--and it's tough to get much better.
And at this point, sad to say, Randy Foye looks like a poor man's Rodney Stuckey.
And after Detroit's Game 3 loss, we could say that when you don't have the right token, the alchemy can also be toxic. We've seen Detroit have several games in the playoffs where it seems like they spent the pregame warmup passing the ganja instead of the ball. Yes, I'm thinking that the Pistons are far more reliant on the vagaries of Rasheed Wallace's uneven levels of play than ever before. Ben Wallace used to provide the consistent aggression under the basket, McDyess is simply not at that level.
When I watch guys like Stuckey and Rondo play, I wonder how Foye is even in the league. And the Wolves could have drafted either (heck, they could have drafted Joakim Noah instead of Corey Brewer, but I digress). I'll grant that Stuckey and Rondo went to better teams, with better coaches, but it's obvious that they are much better suited to be NBA point guards than Foye.
I suppose that with the next draft coming up, I should really be wondering why McHale is still in the league, but that's a dead horse that only Glen Taylor believes can be ridden.
Chad Ford's flinging the spaghetti against the wall; it's his time of year to shine:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/insider/columns/story?columnist...
Of interest to the Wolves and their fans, he states if the Bulls take Rose first, Miami actually may covet Mayo. If this is more than wild-eyed speculation or smokescreen (probably the case), then the Wolves immediately should offer to swap picks and give Miami their future first pick back from the Avis/Blount deal and see if the Heat would bite.
Having said that (replying to my own post), I don't buy it that Chicago would take Rose over Beasley. Seriously? A team that's been looking for a scoring threat down low for the past five years is going to pass on the best one in the draft? A team that needs a little more shooting is going to pass on a versatile forward who can also step out for shots or open the lane for a PG who can't shoot yet? A team that just signed their still-relatively young PG to a big contract is going to draft another PG?
I mean, it could be accurate. But I think Paxson's just being smart and posing, knowing quick lead guards are all the rage right now. What does he have to lose doing this?
This is an interesting scenario, since two of the only teams in the lottery that don't benefit as much from Rose as they do from Beasley (or even Mayo) got 1-2, and yet Rose is becoming widely regarded as the best player. Beasley is way too good of a fit for Chicago for them to pass on him--unless they hate Kirk Hinrich, which I doubt.
The Miami thing is finally recognized in that Chad Ford column--Rose and Wade make no sense together, unless you like watching guys catch the ball on the perimeter, drive, kick out, repeat over and over--you have to have one guy that wants to pop the open shot, and that's not either of their strengths. Mayo and Wade would be much better.
Minnesota has the edge on all other bidders with Miami, since we've got their next number one pick. I sure as hell hope we use it, if it turns out Miami wants OJ next to Wade.
Rose is a hometown kid, much beloved in Chicago, whose fans had the rug pulled out from under them last year and are facing the potential departure of Deng and Gordon.
Both Kirk Hinrich and Dwyane Wade would be not only just fine but much enriched playing beside Rose. If weird things happen at the top of the draft, I expect the windfall to be Beasley for the Wolves much more than Rose.
Or does Marvin Williams over both Deron Williams and Chris Paul not ring a bell?
Marvin Williams (as well as Andrew Bogut) over Deron Williams and Chris Paul does ring a bell. If you're comparing it to a potential Beasley over Rose, that could be a stretch. Personally, I like Rose more than Beasley if I'm starting a team from scratch or if I have a team like Minnesota or Seattle that has so many gaping holes in its lineup that it cannot afford to draft by positional need. Since Chicago and Miami are far from Minnesota, though, boasting star players that have been to the conference finals the last few seasons, they probably should approach the draft with a different perspective (different than Milwaukee and Atlanta should have in 2005 as well).
Chicago has a good point guard, good backup point guard, good shooting guard, good small forward, good center, and good bench. The Bulls don't have low-post scoring, however. Maybe a 6'9" 19 year-old who just averaged 26 and 12 in his freshman campaign in the Big 12 would be a good fit. Probably a better fit than adding a third point guard, no matter where he went to high school.
Miami has a perennial All-Star combo guard that needs the ball to make himself and teammates better. This worked wonders with aging Shaq, who still had enough competence and court sense to catch Wade's passes for dunks. It works less well with Marc Blount. Perhaps Brook Lopez would round out a pretty nice guard-forward-center trio. Also, Shawn Marion is sort of redundant to Wade already, besides the positional difference, since both like the penetrate and neither likes to shoot off the catch. Maybe they would rather have OJ Mayo, who has no problems letting open jumpers fly, and hitting them at a pretty good clip. Also, if Miami is willing to take Rose, that means they are looking long-term, and will have to fill out that front line before ever being considered a contender. How do you rebuild when you lose your 2009 1st Round pick?
I agree that it's more likely to find Beasley waiting for us, since teams will have a hard time passing up the better talent, but he is not as good of a fit for those teams as presently constructed as are other players.
I agree with you Britt, little chance that Rose falls to #3. And if Miami wants Mayo so badly at #2, I see no reason why we trade up. Call their bluff and pick Beasley (or Rose) at #3. If they call our bluff, we pick Mayo at #3, and wait for an offer or keep him. How can we lose? We need help everywhere, why let another future pick go.
I don't buy the scenarios that have Beasley or Rose falling to three, it's probably a smoke screen coming from Riley to see if a team is willing to unload a king's ransom of an established player. If the Heat actually are willing to swap picks to get back the first rounder from the Ricky/Blount deal, the Wolves should jump at the chance. Beasley is about as elite a prospect as the Wolves could ever hope to get.
As for Marvin over Deron and CP3, it's a good point, but I don't think Williams was nearly the prospect that Beasley is, plus it's not a sure thing Rose ends up as good as Deron or CP. Each year has to be evaluated on its own. Looking for the next CP3 or next Wade (as in the case of the botched Foye pick) more often than not leads to poor decisions.
Whether Chicago takes Beasley or Rose is an interesting question. If I had to guess I'd say they'd take Beasley. I doubt Paxon will put much stock into Rose's hometown connection but I could be totally wrong on that. As for Miami, Riley is smart enough to take the BAP regardless of position, so Rose will be the pick, leaving Mayo for the Wolves.
I didn't mean to suggest Riley would pass on Rose--just that he'd consider Mayo + 2009 1st Round Pick > Rose, considering Mayo alone is a better fit for a backcourt already including Dwayne Wade. I have no doubt that any hopes of ours to get Rose or Beasley would involve dealing the Miami pick.
I know that Rose had the great tourney, (and believe me, as someone who saw him in person for 2 games, it was incredible how quick and strong he was with the ball) but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that teams have Mayo ranked even with Rose. Had Mayo played at Memphis, I don't think the Tigers would have ended up any different than they did with Rose on board. They were (I think...my memory is faulty) an Elite Eight team before Rose came on and he got them 1 or 2 more games. When Tyreke Evans comes into Memphis next year and goes nuts, we'll have another one-and-done story to talk about. Rose is a fantastic player but I don't think it would be the FUBAR that everyone is talking about to take Mayo--a player who may have a better handle, shot and defense than Rose--over the hottest non-NBA point guard not named Rubio.
I will say this: Chicago has their very own Joe Mauer v. Mark Prior decision to make. Forget the injuries; Prior was viewed as the can't miss pitching prospect and Mauer was the hometown kid who played the position that the hometown team already had (and a pretty damn good one at that thanks to AJ). Do they take the hometown kid or take the guy who is clearly one of the top 2 players in the draft but also fills their biggest need? I think this is a clear-cut, slam-bam decision: you go with Beasley. 20/10 19 year old PFs don't exactly grow on trees and a lineup of Hinrich, Sefolofugus, Deng, Beasley, and Noah with Gordon off the bench is something that I don't think too many people would turn their noses up at. They have a lot of money invested in their backcourt as it is and the only way I think they go with Rose is if the marketing department has a big say in the proceedings. In other words, they go the opposite route of the Twins.
Finally, someone in the Wolves spin machine needs to start pitching this as a 3 person draft. It's not like doing something simply for the sake of ticket sales is out of character for this outfit. Get on it and go on Rube Radio at KFAN and talk about how wonderful Mayo is and how this really is a 3 way race. Hell, the Heat have already warmed that engine up.
I should add that I think Riley is blowing some serious smoke by saying that Mayo is his guy.
I'll be making a full post on Saturday after Game Two of the Spurs-Lakers, but thought I'd briefly weigh in here about last night's Celtics-Pistons game.
--Nobody should have expected the series to be strictly the home court winner. Now that the Celts have to win on the road, the dynamic changes for their road games.
--James Posey is a man without a matchup in this series. Posey, who was also ineffective in the last few games against Cleveland, is simply too big and bulky to get much burn against a Pistons team that relies on ball movement and drawing fouls. Who does he match up with among Detroit's starting five, or, for that matter, anyone on the Pistons roster that gets any time?
--The offensive emergence of Ray Allen should not, repeat, should not, compel the Celts to revert to a democratic Big Three. Pierce must remain the decision-maker and Rondo, despite his tough night last night, must not be discouraged from shooting those open looks.
--Allen's ankles and Rip Hamilton's perpetual motor are a boon to Detroit. Tony Allen may be a better defensive matchup but is not nearly the decisionmaker Ray Allen is--he actually looks for his own shot more than Ray. The Celts may have to be content with letting Rip get his, because, unlike the Cavs, you do not want to do a lot of doubling on Detroit in the half court. That's how they chew you up.
Just watching game 2 early performance of Ray Allen. He keeps turning down his jumper...sad to see. Frankly, Mayo is a headcase. Didn't he get into a fight with a teammate shortly after arriving at USC? Broke the teammate's jaw? I suspect McHale is impressed with Lopez. Besides, the frontline need is for a big who can defend the rim and grab the rebounds Big Al doesn't get. There are many solid smalls, some who will fall to the Wolves second round.
http://www.trojannyc.com/2007/09/daniel-hackett-.html
"USC sophomore point guard Daniel Hackett will be sidelined at least six weeks after suffering multiple fractures of his jaw Thursday afternoon when he was struck by the elbow of teammate O.J. Mayo during a pickup game at the Galen Center.
Hackett said Mayo grabbed a rebound and turned to pass before smacking Hackett on the left side of his jaw. Hackett was taken to a hospital and had surgery Friday to wire shut his jaw, which was broken in three places."
...an anonymous teammate is quoted otherwise:
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/10/16/o-j-mayo-breaks-teammates-jaw-...
Hackett says it was an accident as does Floyd. Both of them are on record.
Floyd nor any of the USC coaches were at the pick-up game in question. Given the current state of allegations against Mayo and the money issues, does anyone take Floyd's and Mayo's defenses seriously. Mayo also had fights while in high school. Seems evident to me: Mayo has some issues.
All the more reason to bring him in here and fill the place of KG. Let's bring Rick Rickert back to see if he agrees.
We don't know the first damn thing about why (if at all) punches were thrown. It's a long way from speculation to having issues.
I don't mean to pick on you but this is a BS strain that will go through the media in this state if Mayo is even considered for the pick. It's already started in the backwater presses of St. Cloud and Mankato where their sports guys have already associated the words "JR Rider" with "OJ Mayo".
Shit, I had fights in high school.
Mayo has issues fair or unfair that could have him drop from lottery selection. Besides his court performance was ordinary given the hype.
"Besides his court performance was ordinary given the hype."
That's simply incorrect.
As a freshman he played point in one of the toughest conferences in the country. His per/40 adj stat line was 22/5/3.6. He was the most effective player (105.2) on a relatively ineffective team (104.3). He played in 91% of his team's minutes while ending over 30% of their possessions. He had an eFG over 52% with 40% of that coming from behind the arc. He also shut down Russell Westbrook, Jerryd Bayless, and Derrick Rose on defense.
An excellent defending freshman lead guard with an eFG over 52% who is the most efficient player on his team who ends nearly 1/3 of his team's possessions is anything but ordinary. There's not too many people who can shoulder that type of load while still being that effective.
As far as the Wolves go with the guy, Rose may be quicker to the rim, but we all saw the damage a poor shootnig point can do to the pick and roll with Bassy. I'm not saying Bassy is in Rose's league (Rose looks like he can finish the deal in the lane), but no one is going to sag on or go under a p-n-r with Mayo running it.
Oh, and correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Kevin and Jordan have their tiffs after they were well established NBA players? You can say Yes. In this post-JR era, and with the number 3 pick, it will be "hold the Mayo!"
No wonder you didn't get drafted.
One has to wonder if there is a little bit of a pattern developing with OJ.
Couple of fights in high school, took a little cash, hard elbow, grades?
Wolves better do due diligence.
Yep, better weed out all those high schoolers who have ever gotten in a fight.
As for the grades crap...well, this is beyond stupid. Let's all talk about the guy like we know him and then extrapolate a bunch of shit from events and happenings that happen in every high school or with every college across the country.
So he's a stupid kid who fights a lot and has questionable morals, right? I guess I missed that Sports Center.
We don't know if he took cash, first off.
Second off, Big F'in' deal if he did.
He's the third best player in the draft. By far. That's all that matters. It's a three player draft, we got the third pick. If he's there, he's the guy.
There will probably be more made of the money at USC stuff--which is equally irrelevant to the selection. A few punches thrown puts him in good company with Michael Jordan and Kevin Garnett. If we sit tight at pick #3, he's gotta be the guy--at least if he survives the workouts with all the hype he has right now.
My biggest concern is one that we can't really do anything about. That is that he'll get the STARBURY sensation to bolt to a big market. On the one hand, he's superstar, OJ Mayo, from LA, but on the other, he seems like he sort of wants to put some of that past stuff behind him and focus on basketball. If he comes up here, let's hope the latter wins out.
Yes,
If the worst case scenario is true, that punches were thrown in a pick-up game between young men, well, that's what happens in pickup games with men competing at an age when testosterone levels are at the highest. I've seen more than my share and a broken jaw or two thrown in as well. I'm just glad I'm not 21 anymore, although I've seen 40 yo men throw down punches as well. So, really, I suppose, I'm happy that I don't play pick-up games at the Y or anyplace else.
As far as the Draft goes, If McHale was smart, he'd place his bets on OJ Mayo and that his stock will rise. If I were him, I would not so subtly, let it be known that the Wolves are very high on Mayo for the third pick. Say it over and over, and as the draft approaches and teams start bringing players in, hope that Mayo's stock starts to rise to a point that other teams start coveting Mayo, and specifically, the Clippers. Then Make the switch and get the pick back from the Clippers that we have to give to them next year or the year after (or whenever it is) and take the seventh pick available in a draft that McHale likes 8 or nine.
It might not be possible, but I think even if the Wolves like Lopez, they should dispel the idea that they are even considering taking him with the third pick. They ought to talk about Bayless and Mayo more and hope teams below them buy into the CP3 and Williams idea of the future of the PG and want to move up to take chance at getting a future superstar. The third pick is too valuable to risk on Lopez. You got to trade down if you want the center to play next to Jefferson.
While trading down may seem sensible, when I tuned into KFAN the other night to find out how the Wolves did in the lottery (I was in the car), I heard Henry Lake say to Trent Tucker that one of his "guys in the know" told him McHale was in love with Indiana's Eric Gordon. Now, assuming this isn't some sort of joke, and assuming that Lake's mole indeed knows things (not sure of this, as I don't typically listen to KFAN), when it comes to trading down, maybe we should be careful what we wish for?
Anyway, if they stay at pick 3, I agree with those who say it'll likely be between Mayo and Gallinari. They actually both share a lot of positive attributes: both are smart, can handle and distribute the ball, create shots, and shoot the three. Gallinari's got superior size; Mayo superior athleticism and defense. (I actually like the comp Bill Simmons had for Mayo: Andre Iguadola with better passing skills.)
Other guys I like for the Wolves later: Mario Chalmers (a personal fav, even before he became a Lawrence folk hero), both Cal big men (Anderson and Hardin), Bill Walker, Kyle Weaver, Euro thug Omer Asik (never seen him play, but his scouting reports make it sound like he's perfectly happy in the dirty work/enforcer/rebounder/sharp elbow role).
Why do we like this Gallinari guy again? Someone explain to me why he isn't Bargnani 2.0?
Also, if McHale's in love with Gordon, I'm A) Not Surprised, and B) In genuine fear.
Not sure I agree with the Iguadola comparison. Iggy would be an elite glue guy on a championship team, but instead was thrust into the limelight in Philly. Andre Miller ended up being their #1 scoring option because Iggy has a very inconsistent stroke. Mayo is a far better shooter than Iggy and is a more likely #1A or 1B scoring option for a team. I see Mayo's comparison being closer to a Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson. But I agree he should be our leading candidate for the #3 pick.
Wow on the Spurs game last night. Michael Finley is finally starting to show some wear and tear. I'm also wondering why Oberto sat on the bench for so long. If I'm the Spurs, it's time to limit the minutes of your old role players/shooters at the swing spot (Fin, Horry, Barry) and let Udoka, Bowen and Ginobili go to work. Oberto, Thomas, and Duncan should be able to get it done down low. I'm still looking at the Spurs to win this series, despite blowing that 20-point lead.
As for the draft, if we're not going to get Mayo, we definitely have to look at moving down. I have a feeling McHale may still be sold on Hibbert, whose stock has dramatically declined. There are plenty of late-first C's available - Hibbert, R. Lopez, Koufos, McGee, Hardin, Thompson. If we move down a few notches at the top and can pick up a late first-rounder, I'll be happy with the draft. Our high second-round picks are worth something too, as teams do not have to give those guys large guaranteed money, so I hope we explore options with those picks or use them on a player who might slip after his workouts.
I honestly wouldn't fault the Wolves for drafting Lopez, Mayo or Gallinari. The primary goal seems to be to relieve Big Al form double teams one way or another and there are legitimate arguments for each of these players.
I would NOT take Bayless under any circumstances. The Draft Express write-up on him describes Randy Foye to a tee. I think Foye is a nice combo guard, but there is no need to use a third pick in a deep draft to duplicate him.
Now that the Wolves aren't getting Rose, I think they really have to think seriously about brining back Bassy and at what cost. Bassy has made strides in his game on both sides of the floor. If he can continue to improve his jumper and floater, there's no reason to write him off just yet as a potential starter.
They should sign him to a two-year deal at about $8M total and let him him and Foye battle it out for PG minutes. The other option is to let him walk, roll w/ Foye as the primary PG and let Marko back him up. But if you do let Bassy walk, Mayo must be the selection and McCants must stay.
Great stuff as usual, but it's Paul Millsap. I think Ronnie Millsap was a singer.
RE: Ronnie Milsap
As a country music aficionado, let me say that Ronnie Milsap is indeed a singer, and a rather fine one at that. He hit his peak early in his career with songs like All Together Now (Let's Fall Apart) and Pure Love. The guy can outright sing.
Unfortunately, he was one of the first Nashville artists to embrace the pop bullshit that currently passes for country and he wrote, played, and sang a bunch of garbage during the 80s.
He was famously lampooned by alt-country singer Robbie Fulks in his wonderful send up of Nashville, Fuck this Town:
"Hey, this ain't country-western/It's just soft-rock feminist crap/And I thought they'd struck bottom back in the days of Ronnie Milsap"
...anywho, if you're into that sort of music, Pure Love and Where My Heart Is are 2 pretty decent 70s country albums. Good stuff.
And of course it was my intention all along to give everyone an education in Ronnie Millsap. We now know that S+P should be the GM of the Grizzlies, who not only can use a good one, but reside closest to Nashville of any NBA franchise (I think).
As for last night's game, the dominant thing I took away from it was Kobe's leadership. His near-scoreless first half wasn't in the jerk mode of his previous non-shooting playoff displays, where he was trying to show everybody how much the team needed his selfishness. Instead he really was deferring (mostly) intelligently, setting people up for open looks. There was even a play either right at the end of the half or third quarter where he came down with very little time on the clock and then fed the rock to (I think it was) Vujacic in the corner. Hijacking the Paul-Chandler lobs with Gasol was another masterstroke, and the best way to discourage Duncan coming out on him when he drives the lane.
Then the second half: Boom. Climaxed by that game-sealing basket, where he probably charged on Bowen (who overacted the contact, and besides, nobody whistles that in a conference finals), gathered himself, and stuck the short J a few feet inside the foul line. If Kobe plays like this every game, it could be a short series.
Other thoughts:
--An inconsistent game from a very good ref crew (I love both Crawford and Delaney and Jim Clark is pretty good too), especially when they didn't call Gasol fouling Duncan to knock the ball out of bounds and immediately had to whistle a makeup noncall when Ginobili bounced Gasol out of bounds while chasing a loose ball.
--San Antonio can take solace in Ginobili having an off-night--that won't continue--but Odom likewise was off. I think the Spurs would accept a push result between Ginobili and Odom most nights.
--Derek Fisher is in for a looong series. His constant attempts to engender sympathy calls from the refs were properly ignored. Parker is simply way too fast for him, and if Jordan Farmar does indeed have his confidence back we may see more of that little lineup with Kobe at the 3 and Farmar and Vujacic in the backcourt. It really helps defend Parker and you don't lose much on Ginobili either, since he's become more of a trey or layup guy.
--Overall, nothing but good news for the Lakers, from what I could see. They won a game that their early rust should have cost them, a game in which Fisher was exposed and Odom was in a trance. Jackson may have outcoached Pops with that small lineup, but Pops has no choice but to ride those aging vets off the bench. It has gotten him this far, after all. Don't be surprised to see the Spurs come back, if not in Game Two, then in Games Three and Four. They unquestionably have the team heart of a champion. Whether they have the legs or the endurance is the dicey question.
"And of course it was my intention all along to give everyone an education in Ronnie Millsap. We now know that S+P should be the GM of the Grizzlies, who not only can use a good one, but reside closest to Nashville of any NBA franchise (I think)."
:) If you know of where I can pick up an application for that bad boy, it would be much appreciated. :)
Of course, thanks to Interstate and Neely's BBQ, and not to mention Stax, Sun Records, and Beale Street...well, let's just say I'd be in mid-south heaven. God bless Memphis. I'm headed back there at the end of June and I absolutely can't wait...although I will have to spend some time in Little Rock (which, on the positive side of things, has some world class bbq of its own).
http://www.interstatebarbecue.com/
http://www.neelysbbq.com/home.htm
http://www.wholehogcafe.com/
PS: you're right about it being closer to Nashville. Atlanta is about 1/2 hour further away than is the best city on the Mississippi.
As for basketball, I think the Lakers just did to the Spurs what the Spurs did to the Suns in game one of their series. They absolutely kicked them in the nuts and I don't think they'll get back up.
After wondering why Popovich didn't play Finley against the Cavs, now I'm trying to figure why he *did* play him against the Lakers. There was Finley, handing the Lakers a point for every of the 21 minutes he was on the court. Meanwhile, Oberto rode the pine virtually the entire 4th quarter, leaving Duncan to deal with the Gasol / Odom tandem all the way down the stretch.
Huh? I don't get it, Pop.
It should be noted that Kobe really didn't get going until Bowen sat down for the latter 8 minutes of the third quarter. Sure, Vujacic and Farmar added youth and enthusiasm, not to mention quickness, to the Laker lineup, but neither Finley nor Udoka or Barry can guard Kobe.
Continuing his shooting woes from the previous series, Manu was firing blanks and bricks again. Defense? I don't think so.
Quite a performance by LA in the second half. Ginobili is bound to have some big games, I would think, so that should be a great series. Interesting how SA sort of invites Kobe to shoot jumpers. He came through big in the 2nd half, but almost waited too long to take what was given to him.
I seriously doubt we'll take Brook Lopez with the 3rd pick. That puts such a firm ceiling on our potential development, even if it fits a current (major) need. He'd be good enough right away to get us over 30 wins, and never good enough to get us over 50. Since we didn't get Rose or Beasley, all we can do is trust whatever scouting process leads us to a guy. At least we're picking 3rd instead of 6th. If Miami falls in love with someone other than their pick of the Big 2, maybe they talk trades with us. If LA falls in love with OJ Mayo, maybe they talk trades with us. There will be a lot of intriguing options at this spot.
I too doubt they would take Lopez, mostly because that violates the "best 6 foot tweener available" rule. With Bayless and Mayo available, McHale has two players that are both the next Dwayne Wade. If he did take Lopez, however, that might be his best bet to flirt with the 42 game mark. Moving Al Jefferson to PF might have the biggest impact on this teams immediate improvement. Given his prediction of flirting with .500, that might be his direction, though the better route to that goal would probably be trading down and getting a more established player. I just don't see McHale taking a pick that erases one of his last three drafts, and that leaves out everyone but Lopez.
The LA game was a little weird. Although Gino played poorly, I still couldn't picture the Spurs losing a game that they led by 20 with about 18 to play. With Duncan predictably owning Gasol, I couldn't picture this outcome... even after the game was over.
"best 6 foot tweener available" rule
LOL. My latest theory is that McHale, after chafing for a decade with KG, will no longer draft (or trade) for anyone taller than himself.
The thing that really worries me about this draft is that McHale is literally on crack and he actually believes the .500 ball thing next year. That means the team is drafting for need as the one man in charge of making the pick also happens to be the only man on the planet who thinks the team is close to making it happen. I also don't see McHale as being a guy who looks too deeply beyond his own lying eyes, and if his team doesn't have a center, then by golly, he's going to get him a center just like Larry and he had with Robert Parrish back in 86.
Teh stupid burns. Maybe he'll draft Kodos.
If I'm the guy making this pick--and thanks to my aversion to crack, I'm not--I'll go back to what I've been saying nearly all year: best 3 available. If Gallinari is that good (and let's hope someone in that front office has done their homework on the kid), then pull the trigger or trade him to the Knicks for the pick and considerations.
This team is *at least* 3 years away from mattering and if they make the "by golly we need a center" pick in year 1, and with the highest pick they'll probably ever get in this process, then...viva la crack .
Well said SNP.
First, I'm hoping that the decision making no longer runs through McHale, but is a consensus from Hoiberg, Babcock, and Stack. If it's a consensus process, then Mayo is the pick. Mayo has the chance to become a better version of Rip Hamilton.
Second, my worst fear is drafting Lopez. You could do better via a trade or free agent signing. Lopez does not have the makings of a Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bynum, or Oden. At the #3 spot, the team must find an impact player, not a serviceable center. They should focus on drafting his brother with their two second round picks.
I'm also interested to see how this draft helps Miami next year and our draft pick. Wade, Marion and either Rose or Beasley could definitely make the playoffs.
Speaking of draft picks, our pick from Boston should be in the low to mid 20's.
I'm hoping McHale realizes that he'll be able to get a center with one of the second-rounders (either at that pick or through trade). With the way the game is played now, I'd rather have Roy Hibbert or Devon Hardin blocking shots half the time and a shorter bruiser taking charges and giving hard fouls the other half than taking Lopez at 3 or anywhere else in the lottery.
Britt, Keen insights as usual on the playoffs.
And so it begins. How appropriate that with the #3 pick we give the front office the path of most resistance. #1 and #2 were can't misses, with #2 requiring no thought whatsoever. Now these guys have to sift through multiple players and decide if they want to tilt toward positional need (Brook Lopez) or a player with the most star potential (Mayo, Bayless, or Gallinari). The road to the lottery is littered with the carcasses of big men taken before perimeter players that turned out to be franchise changers. Yet most of the draft sites just assume McHale and Co. will take Lopez. I can just see Bayless or Mayo lighting us up in 2010 as Jefferson and Lopez lumber up and down the floor with heads hung low, headed toward another trip to the lottery.....
Take the long view T-Wolves! You MUST draft the B.P.A.!
I haven't heard anyone throw his name out yet, so I will...Brandon Rush would be a steal if we can secure a late 1st rounder or in the unlikely event that he falls to the 2nd round. He reminds me a bit of a more athletic Malik Sealy. Smooth, long, great defender, who doesn't need to get a lot of touches to be effective. A perfect 6th or 7th man, who could just as easily start at the 2 or 3 if he had dynamic scorers around him.
As I've said, my college hoops viewing was limited, but the guy just made a strong impression on me as a can't miss pro player. Not a star, but a valuable role filler.
I also like Rush, and it seems his perceived value varies greatly from mock draft to mock draft. I saw Jay Bilas had him in his Top 15, and others have him slipping further into the 20s. People who haven't watched him might worry that he'll be picked based on one tournament run, but really, his stock probably wasn't raised at all, since he was not particularly dominant in that tournament, but showed throughout his career that he is a near-automatic shooter when left open, he's unselfish and yet has multiple ways to score, and guards the hell out of his man on defense. If we somehow package some of our picks to grab him at 15-20, it would be another valuable piece to this puzzle. When you think of Josh Howards, Jason Terrys, and other solid players who weren't taken as high as they perhaps should have been, Rush is (in my opinion) a likely candidate to fit that description out of the 2008 Draft.