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Game #75, Road Game #37: Minnesota 88, Phoenix 117
Game #76, Home Game #39: Memphis 113, Minnesota 101
Season Record: 19-57
1. Jefferson Finally Cracks
The Timberwolves offered themselves and their fans a choice of embarrassing performances over the weekend: Which do you prefer, an annihilation so complete there was literally 38 minutes of garbage time (the Wolves trailed Phoenix 32-12 with 2:10 to play in the first) or being sluggish early and tepid late in order to drop an eminently winnable home game against one of the few opponents with inferior personnel (Sunday's loss to Memphis)?
The Phoenix blowout was the more sobering because it was the first time this season that Al Jefferson was plainly rattled. Even when he was getting lunched a half-dozen times by Samuel Dalembert back in '07, Jefferson was indomitable and his aggression with respect to both wiles and willpower have been the signature virtue for this ballclub this entire season. So when Jefferson seemed so out of sync and disinclined to bull his way into the paint--and, not incidentally, Shaquille O'Neal--that he couldn't even coordinate his footwork with his dribble, the Wolves were doomed, injured in the head as well as the heart.
After torching Phoenix for monster games that keyed improbable Minnesota wins twice this season, it just flat-out looked like Jefferson didn't want to be out there Friday night. After Sunday's game, someone remarked to coach Randy Wittman that Jefferson only had one shot in the entire first half against Memphis, and Witt was quick to pounce, saying "That was Al, nothing but his doing." The coach added that the second half Sunday was the first time in awhile Jefferson "had been Al Jefferson," that what he had been doing before was "asking for the ball 15, 20 feet from the basket" and the Wolves weren't going to reward that. Asked if fatigue was a factor, Wittman said yeah, it probably was, but that the guy Jefferson was replacing--KG was inferred, not mentioned outright--played all 82 most of the time. He added that he was proud Jefferson had played all 76 games for the Wolves this year and that it was important to finish strong.
I sat next to Stephen Litel of Hoopsworld, who mentioned that Jefferson's voice indicated he had the flu or something before the game. He mentioned some other things about their interview that were interesting and that I imagine he will publish soon if he hasn't already.
In any case, the daily beat writers have duly noted that Jefferson is in a bit of a slump, at least statistically, lately. He's already exceeded his career highs in games and minutes-played by a fairly wide margin. I still think his defense has begun to improve, although it is hard to know against Phoenix because Amare Stoudamire is like a man unleashed since the Shaq acquisition--he's not only going beserk on offense, but deigning to cover his man with some diligence lately. Today against Memphis, the large mobile swingmen, Mike Miller and Rudy Gay, were the tandem that thrashed the Wolves, neither of them Jefferson's man on D.
2. Wittman Still Barking; Are Players Listening?
Last year, I disrespected Randy Wittman's performance because he walked in declaring that he was going to hold players accountable and then called out some players directly (Trenton Hassell) and indirectly (Kevin Garnett and his locker room leadership) while Ricky Davis personified corrosive dysfunction and Mark Blount laid down like a dog without a public peep out of Witt in either case.
This year, Wittman hasn't been afraid to pull out the carrots or the sticks on any and every player on the roster, and the absence of a double-standard represents an improvement. In the past week or so, the coach has also seemed particularly caustic--and specific in both the nature of his criticism and the punishment. Against Memphis, he told Marko Jaric and Corey Brewer exactly why they were being yanked as they went to the bench, and didn't mince words with Randy Foye either.
But there's a chicken-or-egg dynamic that needs to be addressed here. If I was coaching the team the past two games, I'd go batshit on them too, probably--but is all that haranguing precisely why the effort and grit have begun to wane as the meaningless games pile up in the spring? It's a very subtle line, but the body language exhibited by the players as they're being blistered is less deferential and respectful, and certainly more dismissive. It is way too dramatic to say that Witt is "losing the team," given that there literally isn't that much to lose, quite frankly, and that it is hard to motivate any ballclub that owns less than 20 wins in April. But if the idea was to finish strong--for example, Wittman said he was disappointed because overcoming Memphis in the standings had become a late-season goal--well, that isn't happening, and there's only six left to play.
3. Shaky Cornerstones and Robust Afterthought
There are few things worse that Rashad McCants knowing that it is garbage time--the "I'll get mine" shots rain down--but two of them are Al Jefferson and Randy Foye being the abysmal catalysts for that premature garbage. Jefferson we've already discussed. Foye followed up two dreadful defensive performances against Detroit and Utah with a totally disinterested and mentally casual game versus Phoenix. After he inexplicably launched a airball three pointer for no reason whatsoever with about 15 seconds on the clock Friday, Wittman almost had no choice but to give him a quick hook, and indeed, McCants climbed off the pine almost before that stupid shot hit the floor.
The theory I've been toying with as for why Foye has regressed recently has to do with leadership. He was obviously the heart and soul of a very talented Villanova team in college, and I assume the same was true in high school. His rookie year he's naturally going to be very deferential to KG, yet he still manages to snag a niche--"4th Quarter Foye"--and make the all-rookie team. After Garnett was dealt this summer, Foye attended preseason media day loudly announcing that he was now the leader of this ballclub.
Then he goes down before all this new personnel really gets a chance to see anything out of him. While he's rehabbing, Jefferson steps to the fore, slathered in gushing praise from the VP of Personnel, who is essentially saying that Al Jefferson is the next Kevin McHale, and will someday eclipse even that. Now McHale had his reason for touting Jefferson so highly that are bound up in basketball philosophy, kindred styles, and butt covering on a huge trade that, even if successful in the long run, represents a failure for McHale for having to make it in the first place. But the net effect is that it is impossible for Foye to assert himself as even co-leader of the club any time this season.
Foye's most egregious mistakes this year--some weird statements about the point guard position, for example, and a lack of deference and feeding of Jefferson at crunchtime in favor of taking the shot--make more sense if you consider that he's had to grapple with a setback in the pecking order as well as physically with his own body this season. The "little" things he hasn't done well, like defend, and generate some consistency in terms of shot selection, reflect a player trying to figure out for himself what his role is on this team--and I don't mean point guard or shooting guard; I mean co-leader with Jefferson, chief sidekick to Jefferson, crunchtime go-to guy, etc. As much as Wolves fans worry about him being able to play a set position, maybe an equal concern is whether he can accept a set role--like #2 guy, or less.
Then there is Kirk Snyder, who was probably the best overall Wolves player this weekend. Yes, Snyder's defense has slipped a bit recently--he was one of the multitude who couldn't guard Rudy Gay Sunday, but he draws fouls, gets to the rim, and dishes off penetration better than any none point guard on the club, and plays a hard, physical style that is very handy to have contained in your 8th, 9th or 10th man. Snyder could carve a role for himself at the end of a bench on a very good team, the one who steps in for 10-20 minutes a night for 2-3 weeks when injuries have depleted a roster and prevents a steep drop in quality of play and emotional momentum. He might even be more than that. Yet for about three solid weeks now, he has outplayed Corey Brewer. It says something about the Wolves' doldrums that that passes for good news nowadays.
I'm probably the last person to see this, but if you haven't seen the KG NBA "Where Amazing Happens" commercial, here's a link (I got it from Simmons's article):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRJueW6migY
After watching it a few times I was hit with two conclusions:
1) Glen Taylor is a grade-A dbag for going after Garnett in the paper; and
2) I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I suggest that no current Wolves player will likely ever inspire a commercial sharing the same sentiment. Not that an advertisement is an indicator of a player's worth, but watching the spot a couple of times makes one wonder would have happened if the Wolves gave it one more shot with KG, maybe one more MV3-like offseason, luxury tax be damned.
That commercial is what will give the Wolves "karma" points with who it counts - David Stern. That's an NBA commercial. They don't get that without the trade. Just another sub mediocre season for both teams and a championship written off before it happens.
Britt,
Here's the Jefferson interview of mine you referenced...
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=8174
A lot of good comments on this thread. Just some random thoughts:
1. Agree with the folks that are basically making the argument: "We have a lot of guys who are 6-7-8th men on a really good team". Put another way, we have a lot of guys who have obvious weaknesses that could be covered up/limited if they were playing limited minutes on a team that had a lot more talent, but on this team, they get exploited nightly because these guys go against the 1st units of most teams and play a lot of minutes Case in point: we all think that Brewer has a shot to be someone like Bowen. I think he could be even more devastating if you had a shot blocker playing along side him beause it would free him even more to play the passing angles and go for more steals -- sure he'd get beat, but if you had Tim Duncan behind you and played team defense like the Spurs, you would be able to cover some of those mistakes. Also, his offensive limitations could be shielded if he played with guards who had to have their outside shot respected or could get to the rack like Tony Parker and Ginobli. But when Brewer starts, he's playing with Jaric and Foye, and that isn't good enough.
2. Watching the Memphis game should have made this point even more clear -- people on the Memphis equivalent of "On the Ball" must be wondering if Gay, Warrick, Miller & Darko are little more than 6-7-8 men, yet we made at leat Gay and Miller look like all stars, and warick had a pretty good game too .
3. On the Foye discussion, look at his stats in his second year and compare them to Chauncy billups (the best-case scenario for Foye, in my opinion). Note that Billups was also hurt in his second year and played for a bad team. Foye is scoring 2pts per game fewer, but shooting a higher percentage both from 2pt and 3pt range, rebounding more, and has an almost identical assist/to ratio. No one has been more dissapointed in his defense than me, and it's a real concern. However, writing him off now seems WAY too premature for me. Same thing when people say he can't be an effective point guard. It can take a while, particularly when you're surrounded by lesser talent with a terrible coach.
4. A similar argument with McCants: as Britt has pointed out, he consistently has one of the better relative plus/minus on the team. I can't speak to him as a teammate, but to me he seems to be doing better at getting the ball to folks like Craig Smith where they can score than Foye does. I'd also point out that currently he sits in the top 30 in points per 48 minutes and he's making over 40% of his threes. To me, he's a pretty valuable second unit guy and may even one day be a great compliment to Jefferson. Again, look at the second season of Rip Hamilton (i'm giving McCants a mulligan for last year because of the microfracture surgery). McCants is scoring 3 fewer points a game but playing 5 less minutes a game. He's shooting a higher percentage and his rebounding and assist/to #s are similar. I'm not saying he can be Rip (he's actaully already a much better 3pt shooter than rip), but it's hard to judge either he or Foye at this point. On the flip side, which i can't judge sitting in the stands, he may be a cancer as a teammate and he may be uncoachable. If he is, then he's got to go, but to call him a bust seems to me to be a bit extreme, and again, premature.
5. On the terrible coach front, i'm not sure what to do here, since management seems to be committed on that front. But Whitman is just so overmatched it isn't even funny. It seems to be the consensus that Ivaroni is at risk of getting fired (after only 1 season, and he has a better record than Whit), yet he got his team to execute down the stretch that got them a number of dunks, layups and open 3s. We go down to the other end and can't get Jefferson the ball or anyone else in a position to score. That, to me, is the essence of coaching in the NBA: what your team does down the stretch when guys actually start trying.
Ultimately, it's hard to argue with s-n-p though: If you look at the teams who are competitive, they are all some combination of clever drafting/draft day trading netting a superstar or superstars, and/or clever trades and free agent signings, usually a combination of both (the Spurs, who managed to get Duncan and then Ginobli and Parker in later rounds, are the one exception of a team that hasn't had to make a trade for an all-star or to sign an all-star). All the other teams made significant trades that netted them bigtime players and bigtime contracts (Shaq, Kidd, Baron Davis, McGrady, Odom, even Tyson Chandler), or made significant free agent signings (Boozer, Nash). We don't have the intelligence to make those trades (or the assets anyone is interested in)and we don't have the cap space to sign those free agents. So i don't see how we're going to get better anytime soon, short of Rose becoming the next Chris Paul or Beasley becoming the next Charles Barkley.
There are a lot of smart commenters who offer us pearls of NBA wisdom along with Britt at this site. I consider S&P to be one of the top ones here. I wanted Foye over Roy in 2006, and I could not have been more wrong, so I am not taking S&P’s criticism lightly. Like a lot of others I have backed away from my faith in Foye as a fundamental cornerstone to this team. I do not think he can be the full-time shooting guard his deficiencies at the point are nothing short of disturbing. However, I think there is something to be said about players learning to play together over time. This is still a young team learning how to play together in the NBA. Talent is sometimes a bit overrated when it comes to the unit of five players together. I don’t want to sound too much like Gene Hackman, but I don’t think the Wolves get anywhere by determining we have a roster of 6-10 players with Al Jefferson. We will get another draft pick to go with what we already have. I think this core group is mentally and physically tired at this pint in the season. I also think that keeping the core group together with Jefferson will translate into 10-15 more wins with Wittman as the coach. You should resign Snyder, Gomes, and Telfair and McCants should be brought back as well. Let them grow a bit more another season and pray for a Rose lottery gift.
As I see it, yesterday was an excellent day. We realize we are still an all-star type player (and maybe a coach) short of a playoff team and the Griz, Sonics, and Knicks all win.
Interesting theory about Foye. Really sounds like you could be right. I saw the Summ league games and it confirms the fact that Foye really was the leader on that team and he was ready to be the heart of this team. Hope he'll figure out his role sometime next year
I've come to the realization that the Wolves are little more than a collection of 6th-7th-8th men and Big Al. Players like Jaric, Snyder, Gomes, Smith, Buckner, and Telfair are huge assets to a 55-win team (fresh legs down the stretch, valuable contributors to the second unit, situational defenders, etc), and Shaddy is a nice microwave, however One Star + One Microwave + One Glue Factory (as we seem to have an inordinate amount of "glue guys") won't contend in the Western Conference anytime in the next decade. I like the idea of trimming any possible fat this off-season and trying to build around Big Al, Brewer, Foye, draft picks, and someone other than Wittman at the helm.
Britt, I know you're not going to call for anyone's head or anything, however could you please let me know if there's anything I haven't seen so far which would make keeping Wittman around any longer a good idea? At this point in his tenure (31-87) I'm ready to move on as a basketball fan.
Another season down the drain. I really thought that this season we could see what we had in players, make smart moves and draft some help. I should have realized otherwise. Granted, this view is from way down south here, but it looks like we have no desire to finish out the season. I could understand this if we hadn't played so well the previous few weeks. Losing to Pheonix I can understand, they are gearing up for the playoffs, but the GRIZZLIES?!?
I am about to turn in my wolves gear for sonics... after all they'll be close.... probably not though.
Here's hoping the wolves figure out a direction to go and get there.
I am so looking forward to having a draft pick right after Rose is selected.
I've been following the McCants and Foye debate for the last half of this season. I've never been a McCants fan and believe that his one-dimensional play will top out as a sixth man fole. On the other hand, based upon his "clutch" play in 4th quarters last year, I was hoping that Foye would improve upon last year's showing and develop into a poor man's Dwayne Wade. Now, I firmly believe that his inability to find a role on this team is directly tied to his inability to find his game. Leadership roles are taken and earned and Foye is losing his grip.
Between Brewer and Foye we have what should be the cornerstones of our franchise. Instead we have two players with severe development issues staring at them. Hard work can pay off in the NBA, but it's hard to label either as a future all-star.
Getting a handle on this terrible team is like putting mercury under your thumb.
I'm jumping off the Randy Foye bandwagon. He's too much of a "shoot first" player to be the full-time point guard on this team. He is not creative lately in dribble penetration and drawing double teams for easy assists to the big men. Lately, Marko Jaric has been much better at that than Foye. I am starting to actually miss watching Telfair in comparison to Foye.
I crunched some stats and in his 33 games, Foye has taken 10.9 shots per game, making 40.9 % of his FGA. He has only 3.9 assists to every 2.15 turnovers.
Telfair has taken 9.3 shots per game, making 40.1 % of his FGA. He has a relatively impressive 5.9 assists to 1.85 TO.
Marko Jaric has taken 7.1 shots per game, making 43.3 % of his FGA. He has dished out 4.3 assists to 1.72 TO per game.
To me, Foye is getting hard to watch. He can run hot and cold in his shooting and almost exclusively cold in his defensive effort. I'm tired of watching him and the whole team just throw the ball to each other around the perimeter with no real plan in mind for getting to the basket.
Foye and McCants are redundant in that they both want to score and not play much defense. At least, McCants can get to the hoop and slam the ball down occasionally or draw a foul.
If we don't get Derrick Rose in the draft, then Al Jefferson is going to be relegated to a KG like existence on this team of not having a decent supporting cast to build a contender. Sooner or later, he will get frustrated with the inability of the GM's to draft wisely and he'll want out.
If Foye is struggling with being a Beta Puppy, then he's in for even more of a shock if the Wolves draft in the top 5 and they walk away with Beasley, Rose, Mayo, Bayless, or Gordon.
At some point his failure to adjust to moving on down the pecking order has to become the responsibility of the front office. Does he have a clearly defined role? What is that role? What does the team expect out of him production wise? Somehow, I don't have the greatest confidence in the front office that Foye is given anything but a few guesses and perhaps some anxiety medication about what his role and status are with the team.
Whatever it is, I think the biggest lesson learned this year is that the last 3 drafts have been spent on, at best, a bunch of 6th men...on a 19 win squad. The very fact that we're talking about how nice Snyder has looked is pretty indicative of the problem. Kirk came to the Wolves via Houston...who has plucked players out of frickin' China and made them work on a 50 win squad. Carl Landry, Luis Scola....if Kirk Snyder couldn't make it there, well...consider my enthusiasm extremely tempered.
The Wolves are in a massive pickle this off season. Do they lock up any of their 6th-8th men free agents for 3-4 year deals and strap themselves in future free agency with bad contracts for non-starters like Smith, Telfair, Gomes and Snyder? Or do they keep their 2 2nd rounders and play it REALLY on the cheap until they can unload a large chunk of cash on a single player to come up to the frozen tundra? I think option B is where they're headed. Not only is it closer to the Boston option, but it allows them to keep the Clipper pick for another year. I've said it for a while: this year isn't rock bottom. It can't be. Either they re-sign some of their free agents and they tie themselves down to role players on a 19 win squad for 4 years or they roll with a bunch of 2nd rounders and D-Leaguers around Big Al and (hopefully) a nice top pick.
SnP--
You could be right about this year not being rock bottom, but I'll be really disappointed if you are. I would hope that we'll see significant improvement next year, regardless of who we draft. Foye will be healthy and improved, Jefferson should be better prepared and conditioned to be a full-time 2-way player, and Brewer should look 5-10 lbs heavier with a more accurate jumper. (Or at least one or two of those things should happen). I'm probably in the majority in thinking that this group plus a non-Rose/Beasley pick never contends for a title, but I still think it has enough to quickly get over 30 wins and contend for a playoff spot in the years after that.
I expect that we'll give up the Clips pick next year--(assuming that it's Top 10 protected?)--but also that we'll get Miami's, since Wade-Marion-1st Rounder HAS to be enough in the East to get in or near the playoffs. I'd imagine the exchange will set us back 5-10 draft spots, which isn't devastating. What would be devastating is watching another sub-25 win season. If you can get a decent ticket on the street for $5 right now, I'm not sure where that price tag would be next spring. "Let's Build It" might have courtside packages starting under $25 per game.
I don't think they're in a pickle. They have 2/3 of their cap taken up by players who aren't on the roster or who will be off of it by the end of next season (Hudson and Howard will count on their cap until then). Signing some of their RFAs doesn't mean they'll be cap-strapped in future seasons, especially since Jefferson's deal is so reasonable. If these guys are so mediocre, who's going to pay them more than $3 million per? I can't see any of them getting offered the mid-level exception. None of these players are indispensable; if they don't stay, we can always find other players who are as productive or more productive. More than likely, they'll need to spend $10-15 million per on 3-4 of them, which isn't bad. They'll have their mid-level exception for a possible big guy (maybe DeSagana Diop or Rasho Nesterovic) and Walker's and Buckner's expiring contracts (worth over $12 million) to use in the right deal. It's probably the most flexibility they've had in years.
As far as the Houston thing, I hope SnP was joking about Yao and Scola. Those two didn't become good through the miracles of the coaching staff; they were very good and highly-touted international players who would play for every team in the league. Guys like Head, Landry, and Hayes work because of the players around them; on some teams, they wouldn't fit. Every team has players who didn't work somewhere else or who fit with their team because of the players around them. The Wolves didn't the get the best from Bobby Jackson and Luc Longley, to name a few; however, they got the best out of guys like Troy Hudson and Dean Garrett and got some good seasons from guys like Ervin Johnson and Chauncey Billups. A majority of the players in the league could make at least one team's rotation. It's the same reason why Mark Madsen started with the best team in franchise history but can't get off the bench now.
An unrelated thing to bring up: Miller's contract runs for two more seasons after this one at about $9 million per. The Grizz already gave up Gasol for an expiring contract, two prospects, and 2 low-end 1st round picks. Would they take an offer of 1-2 of our young players, Walker, Boston's 2009 first-rounder, and one of our seconds this year for Miller?
A few things:
1- My comment about Houston was to show that they have a pretty unique eye for talent and they took Gerald frickin' Green over Kirk Snyder. The guy has had his chance in 2 of the most stable organizations in the league and he was traded for a cartoon. If only the Wolves could somehow get Kris Humprhies and Josh Smith...they'd have picks 13-17 in the 2004 draft. I'd also second your point about players like Head and Landry being able to succeed because of the quality of players around them. If Snyder couldn't hack it in Houston and Utah, he sure as hell won't hack it in Minny if and when they finally get good.
2- I'd invite you to work out the math for re-signing some of the squad's current players. I know the money comes off the books in the 09/10 season and that Big Al's deal is reasonable, but you still have to deal with the sticky matter of the 08/09 season. They need to bridge next year's gap. If they re-sign Gomes, Telfair, and Smith, that's at least $10mil/year for 4 years. Add in the draft picks that the team will have and they'll have zero to spend on future free agents. This is yet another reason why Ratliff's deal was so important. It allowed them to bridge the problematic 08/09 season (where they have to decide on their free agents) with shorter and slightly more expensive contracts that would expire right at the time their young talent in the draft (hopefully) starts to gel and they finally are able to play around in free agency. 2 years of $15 mil spread over (for example) Darko and Brian Cardinal or Miller and Cardinal is much more cost effective than 4 years of $10 mil spread out over 3 role players. That's the pickle. 08/09 is a year where they have to decide on 4 free agents. Every penny they choose to spend comes out of 09/10's (and beyond) free agency fund. $10-15 mil/year on 3 role players on a 19 win squad is problematic.
1 - I think that the opposite is true -- some players fit better with winning teams because they know how to play a role. Look at Madsen. On teams with an abundance of scoring, he probably plays more because he does good team things on both ends. On this team, they can't play him as much because they can't have such an obvious non-shooter on the floor. For a historical reference, Snyder's at least as good as Felipe Lopez, and he was in the rotation for our '01 playoff team. With that said, though, I think they can only keep two of him/Jaric/Brewer and he'd be #3 on my list.
2 - I read the hoopshype salary list incorrectly, so that's my fault. I don't disagree on Ratliff -- even if they'd have just traded him to Portland for Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract, at least they'd still have that chip. However, don't discount Walker as a trading chip. For that matter, all of our young players have some value and could be packaged with Walker in a deal. No player is untradeable; we already got rid of Mark Blount, possibly the one player whom everyone assumed was untradeable. Maybe this team isn't championship or playoff-level, but they should be better than they were last year.
I'd like to think that they could package Walker with a younger player for *something*, but I'll believe it when I see it. He's going to be tough to move no matter what.
The main reason why I say that next year is rock bottom is the salary cap. Right now the Wolves will enter next seson with about $60 mil with no re-signings and no additional free agents. They're already at the cap with 1 top pick, 2 2nd rounders, and no Gomes, Telfair, Smith, Snyder, or Richard. Out of the 8 players that are signed, 3 of them (Walker, Madsen, and Buckner) don't play. Add that to the 2 buy outs that are spread over next season's cap number and the team has nearly $30 million locked up in players that don't play. Right now, the Wolves have 5 players who actually play (Jaric, Foye, Brewer, Jefferson, and McCants) signed for next year and they're already at the cap. If they keep this year's picks and are unable to move the dead weight, they're at 11 players with an exception to give. Frorm everything the team has said about the 2nd rounders, they are scouting heavily to put them to good use. If this is the case, 1 free agent gets to stay...especially if the team is serious about heading into the 09-10 season with about $10-12 mil to spend on a free agent. If they sign *any* of their free agents this year, that money comes right out of the 09-10 free agency pot...which just happens to be the first year the team can be viable in free agency. Also, if they're terrible next year, and Miami makes the playoffs, they're looking at 3 first rorunders...which is more than enough to fill in the gaps that will be filled by 2nd rounders (maybe D-Leaguers) in the 08-09 season.
I'll once again harp on the insane decison not to move Ratliff's deal. Would it have been painful for a year or two? Yes, but it would have been about a 30% up front premium on contracts that would last and cost less than resigning players like Smith, Telfair, and Gomes to long term deals. Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal for 2 years is a much better deal than Smith and Gomes for 4. Ratliff's money gets converted no matter what. Unfortunately, instead of gaining a legit starter or a draft pick (+ some nasty short term salary), the Wolves will likely use it to re-up role players on a 19 win squad. Let's build it!!!
No one outside of Jefferson should be considered safe on this team. I hope they explore each and every available option this off season. Is Phoenix still interested in Corey Brewer? Does Golden State have any interest in a sign and trade for Smith for Marco Bellineli? How about Shaddy for Belinelli straight up (and then take Gallinari with the top pick if they fall beyond #2)? What about Andris Biedrins for Foye, Smith (sign and trade), and Brewer? How about Randy Foye, Antoine Walker, sign and trade Richard, and next year's 1st pick to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut and Bobby Simmons? Kind of far feched but...well, who knows? Everybody and anybody but Big Al should be put on the table in an attempt to land a quality young big before he hits free agency. The Wolves will have to overpay a free agent to get up here. It will cost a lot less if he gets up here before then. Bogut and Noah. If I were fantasy GM, I'd unload everything but this year's top pick and Big Al to get one of those 2 guys.
It looks like I was beaten to the punch. After reading this post, I still think that they'll have a lot of cap flexibility after next year. They've hinted at that since they traded KG. I also think they'll try to move Walker and/or Buckner to help them pick up someone in a sign-and-trade. IMO, if they want Deng or Okafor or Gordon or someone from that draft class, they'll have a decent chance at them. Most of them won't be getting max deals. Our expiring contracts and some picks/prospects might be enough to swing a deal.
They've hinted at it with marketing campaigns ;) Let's build the blueprint may be good for season ticket sales, but beyond that...not so much.
Okafor is going to get paid. He's out of the Wolves' pay league. Deng and Gordon both turned down $10 mil deals last off season. They probably won't get it this time around seeing as how their performance has dropped, but unless the Wolves execute a sign and trade, they don't have the cash for those 2 either. They need to target a young big guy they like who is pre-free agency and sell the farm (everything but this year's top pick and Big Al) to get him.
I think you're overestimating the worth of Okafor. The 2008-2009 cap is probably going to be $56 million. I would say his top is $75 million ($15 million per year/5 years), which would mean that only Chicago, Philadelphia, and Charlotte have the cap space to pay him. Chicago has Joakim Noah and is only going to have $16 million in cap space (prior to their draft picks). Philadelphia has plenty of space, but I don't know whether or not they would be interested in Okafor. If Charlotte doesn't want to resign him, then Walker, Foye, Madsen and a pick (preferably Boston's or Miami's), plus a side sign & trade of Smith/Snyder/Gomes for Adam Morrison's contract (which the Wolves could just dump at the end of the next season) would seem reasonable. If the Wolves kept this year's pick they would be in a very strong position for the next several seasons, especially if they could get Beasley or Rose (or Gallinari, in my opinion
Here's the two possible scenarios on draft day:
1) We have the 1st or 2nd pick, and draft Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley. Either player should boost our win total to 30+ and set us on an upward track toward contender status.
2) We get the 3rd, 4th, or 5th pick. What if a team like LA Clips or Indiana, or somebody sitting a few spots back really likes somebody like O.J. Mayo or Brook Lopez, and wants to move up? Are there realistic scenarios where we could trade down and get rid of a bad contact or two? This is really speculating, but there's a good chance we'll have one of those picks, and there won't be anybody there who is a clear-cut better prospect than guys available at 7-10.
I'd rather have scenario #1, but maybe we could dupe a team that's overly impressed with a Lopez or Mayo and get something like our first rounder back from the Clips, or get rid of a bad contract along the way.
I'd even go so far as to say that if they don't get one of the top 2 picks they should consider adding the top pick in a proposal to Milwaukee for Bogut. BTW: I should have put Williams instead of Simmons in the above trade example. Foye + Walker + top pick for Williams and Bogut. I don't think they'd do it but I'd continue to sweeten it. Bogut is worth more than any non-Rose/Beasley player in the draft.
This club is simply tuckered out.
I'm not sure it's Wittman losing the team, since that would imply that at sometime during the season he actually HAD the team. Someone would have to define the actual context of player "leadership" in this organization for me; I really haven't seen much of it on court. Jefferson woofs at folks when he doesn't get the ball. Is that leadership? Three out of four times Shaddy has the ball, he'll jack it up, especially when they're 20 down. Is that leadership? Foye's impact upon this club since his return has been negligible. Is that leadership? If so, leadership is overrated...it's obvious we need Will Ferrell as Jackie Moon to come in and explain what a true leader is all about. It could be funny; hey, come to think of it, maybe HE could have guarded Rudy Gay yesterday.
I love it Peter - Wittman can't lose the team because he never had it! as my favorite beer commercial would say "Brilliant!" And oh so true.
I thought the Memphis game was another very clear sign of what the T-wolves lack.
Offensively, we just don't have a Mike Miller type shooter who stretches the defense. Before we get into the we have Shaddy - he can do it comments, I would like to point out the size difference (6'8" vs a very generous 6'4") and the court vision (the assists in the paint by Miller were superb) makes Miller-type a far more valuable piece for a team like the T-wolves. A player who gets his points without needed to pound the air out of the ball. A real need when you have a big low post stud.
Like in baseball, defense up the middle is a key to a successful team. We don't have it. We got burned in the first 3 quarters by having Brewer and Synder get caught on help side because Foye, McCant and Jaric could not stop the dribble penetration. Getting caught lead to great looks by Miller who took great advantage (7-10 from 3 pt land if I remember right)
Deciding enough was enough in the 4th quarter, Synder/Brewer were basically told to stand on top of Miller (which they did - pretty much cutting off Miller's water accept for that insane out of the zip code 3 late in the quarter). But that meant no help on Gay who goes off and seals the deal inside. Where was Big Al to help with that? No where that I saw.
We will NOT compete until Foye (and Jaric/McCants) can effective limit dribble penetration and Big Al can defend the paint. To be IFs for 2 big pieces.
In my book, being a true (positive) leader, is just like being a point guard or having basketball IQ: it's innate. Real leadership can't be assigned by the GM or coach and it can't be taken by whichever player thinks they deserve it. A true leader puts the team first and makes playing the right way (and thereby providing the best chance to win) the priority -- "getting his" is not something he would ever consider.
The best player on a team will often lead (or more accurately, be followed) but if your best player is, for example, Vince Carter that's not necessarily a good thing.
My guess is that there are very few true leaders in pro ball. I'd also guess that those that do exist are down towards the far end of the bench.