American League East
1. Boston Red Sox
It's more interesting (or at least less conventional) playing Devil's Advocate about why the Sox *won't* repeat as pennant winners. Practically everything went right last season: Papelbon's shoulder held firm and Beckett's blisters didn't grow, and every rookie was off-the-charts good, from spunky Pedroia to no-hit Bucholtz to speedy Ellersby to the supreme set-ups of Okajima. Okay, so Dice-K was shaky and Ortiz was one-legged, and Manny couldn't always be Manny at the plate and Drew was horribly inconsistent. The odds of those negatives repeating are greater than a reprise of the positives. I mean, Manny is 36, Papi can't hit any better than last year even with two good knees, and Dice-K and Drew aren't the kind of performers you entrust with the mortgage money. And Curt Schilling is toast, Mike Lowell is old...Okay, back to reality. They have the best balance of pitching depth and hitting depth in all of baseball. Their Vegas odds are the lowest on the board. As April dawns, they are the team to beat.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Yup, the Jays will overtake the Yankees this season. Their starting rotation stacks up with anybody--Halladay a legit ace, Marcum and McGowan a pair of live arms coming into their own, and AJ Burnett an injury-prone stud at #4. Closer BJ Ryan's elbow injury in early May actually fortified the bullpen for this season as Accardo, Downs and Janssen all stepped up--and now Ryan is fast on the mend. Meanwhile, outfielder Alex Rios is a budding star, Vernon Wells is due for a big comeback, and snagging the left side of Cards' 2006 champion infield--3B Scott Rolen and SS David Eckstein--to go with great glove man Aaron Hill at 2B will make all those ground-ball pitchers on the staff happy and wealthy. The Blue Jays are ready to compete with the big boys.
3. New York Yankees
The George Steinbrenner-Joe Torre era is over, yet the roster looks distressingly similar. There's a hell of a lot of pressure on young pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to produce, because it's hard to see how the Yankees improve enough to surmount the Red Sox and not get overtaken by the Blue Jays otherwise. Two-thirds of their batting order is in decline: Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, and yes, even Jeter (now 34). Ditto starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina and Mariano The Great in the pen. So, what, A-Rod is supposed to knock in *more* than 156 runs this year to make up the difference?
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Even after jettisoning hot prospects Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, their lineup is no longer a joke. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are five-tool players, Carlos Pena can lose a third of his long-ball production and still hit 30 dingers, and there is some potent old (Cliff Floyd) and young (Evan Longoria) help on the way. But the starting rotation needs to quicken: Would-be ace Scott Kazmir is still teasing out his upside, Jamie Shields needs to show he can put together back-to-back solid seasons, and the Twins' scouting staff isn't in the habit of giving up someone like Matt Garza unless there's a significant flaw in his makeup. Even so, you throw in former Dodgers hot prospect Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine as your #5 and that's a talented rotation with nobody over age 25. The Rays are emerging.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Finally they rebuild in earnest, although trading Eric Bedard to Seattle was lunacy even if they did pluck a potentially great center fielder in Adam Jones out of the deal. Aside from nascent star outfielder Nick Markakis and Jones, there aren't any uber-talented kids shoving the likes of Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez out of the way. And their pitching is wretched. When you can't sell out Camden Yards any longer, you know you've been doing something very wrong for a pretty long time.
American League Central
1. Cleveland Indians
The Indians-Tigers and Red Sox-Blue Jays-Yankees both should be hotly contested races from wire to wire. While the Tigers retooled in a major way, the Tribe stood pat with a dignity and wisdom Twins fans will recognize. Their homegrown beef brothers CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are the league's best 1-2 mound tandem, their bullpen took a quantum leap forward last season with the emergence of Betancourt and Perez, and back-of-the-rotation vets Westbrook and Cliff Lee will be healthier (physically and mentally, respectively) this year. At the plate, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez should be close to their glorious primes, Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera represent a promising new right side of the infield, and Casey Blake is unsung but effective. Even so, the Indians' hope of outlasting Detroit may rely on Travis Hafner not imploding.
2, Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera is a stone-cold hitter who might give A-Rod a run for his money in the power categories this year, but the other plum from Florida, pitcher Dontrelle Willis, is less of a sure thing. Too bad, because after certifiable ace Justin Verlander, the rotation is iffy. Jeremy Bonderman broke down last season, Kenny Rogers is on his third installment of borrowed time, and Nate Robertson is an innings-eating mediocrity (not that there is anything wrong with that). Oh, and the bullpen is weak, from middle relief right through to closer Todd Jones. Nevertheless, the Tigers will win a lot of 9-7 and 11-9 games. Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield are aging, and another 139 ribbies from Magglio Ordonez is unlikely, but with Cabrera and SS Edgar Renteria on board and Carlos Guillen moving to first base, there are no weaknesses in theTigers' batting order.
3. Minnesota Twins
Although many pundits are picking the hometown nine 4th or 5th, I don't think I'm drinking the local kool-aid. Morneau and Cuddyer should find a productive mean between their last two seasons and Mauer should be healthy enough for a career-best OPS--and if he's not, let's play him at 3B finally, okay Gardy? Delmon Young replaces Torii Hunter's bat at a fraction of the price and is going to get better a lot faster than he gets more expensive. Yes, the staples of pitching and defense have taken a hit, even with the second coming of Mark Belanger, Adam Everett, taking over at short. Baker, Slowey and Bonser sounds better as a law firm than as the top half of a starting rotation--I haven't forgotten about Livan Hernandez; I just don't expect much beyond his workhorse capabilities yielding mediocre results. If the vegan might of Pat Neshek can hold until autumn and Dennis Reyes is more than a one-year wonder (two years ago) the bullpen will be a strength. But mostly I'm picking the Twins third because the White Sox are still dysfunctional and the Royals are ready to ascend yet.
4. Chicago White Sox
Ozzie Guillen doesn't seem like a great manager for encores, The Pale Hose are a ballclub that need to tear it down to close to the studs, but instead they're sticking with the Konerkos and Credes and Dyes and AJs and Thomes in order to have their foolish dreams rudely abused by the Indians and Tigers. Nick Swisher was a nice pickup from Oakland, and sooner or later room has to be made for Josh Fields at third over Crede, and the Cuban kid at second, Alexei Ramirez, could be exciting. But acquiring Orlando Cabrera for shortstop and keeping Javy Vazquez and Jose Contreras in the rotation means that the profane Guillen and company are in it to win it--and when they don't, things will get ugly.
5. Kansas City Royals
The ceiling on erstwhile prospects like OF David DeJesus and C John Buck and P Zack Grinke seems to be lower than anticipated, but the Royals finally seem to be headed in the right direction anyway, thanks to former Atlanta exec Dayton Moore, a GM who is building for the long haul from the ground up. In Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, KC has two dangerous young hitters, and Tony Pena Jr. flashes the sort of leather than can anchor an infield defense at shortstop. Until Moore can choose and develop a few more quality pieces, the Royals will rely too heavily on dime-store "stars" like pitcher Gil Meche and outfielder Jose Guillen to carry them. But it is not hopeless any more--or at least not for long.
American League West
1. Seattle Mariners
Casual fans may be surprised by this pick, but the Mariners are due. They've got one of the top five payrolls in the league, one of the 5 oldest rosters, won 88 games last year, and added arguably the best pitcher remaining in the AL, Eric Bedard, to their staff. Paired with King Felix Hernandez, 16-game winner Miguel Batista, and veterans Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, the rotation is among the league's elite--and their closer, JJ Putz, stands alongside Joe Nathan as the best in the game today. On offense, the M's still have Ichiro, an underrated if aging hitter in Raul Ibanez, and decent run producers for their positions in C Kenji Johjima, 2B Jose Lopez (who will bounce back closer to his 2006 breakout) and 3B Adrian Beltre. Even middling seasons from 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro would help. The bugaboo is defense, especially in the spacious outfield, where Ichiro will go on his own WeightWatchers plan trying to cover ground between Ibanez and pudgy Brad Wilkerson.
2. Los Angeles Angels
It seems every year some promising contender is snakebit by injuries, and having their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvin Escobar, go down with ailments this spring points toward the Halos as this year's hard luck story. Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game at manufacturing runs, and with the signing of Torii Hunter to protect Vlad Guerrero in the batting order and the acquisition of Jon Garland for the rotation, the Angels clearly mean to go for it all in 2008. But can the likes of Jered Weaver, Garland and Ervin Santana hold the fort until Lackey and Escobar return?
3. Oakland Athletics
Oakland will exceed expectations and approach last year's 76-86 mark despite a massive rebuilding campaign because, as usual, the front office can identify talent. Outfielder Travis Buck, 1B Daric Barton and C Kurt Suzuki are ready now, and OFs Chris Denorfia and Carlos Gonzalez aren't far away. As placeholders go, 2B Mark Ellis and OF Emil Brown aren't too shabby, and sooner or later the left side of the infield, Crosby and Chavez, have to be healthy on the same day--don't they? More to the point, a rotation led by Rich Harden and Joe Blanton with lefty Dana Eveland coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal is miles better than Texas, enough to keep the A's out of last place.
4. Texas Rangers
What a mess. The pitching staff is heaped with underachievers like Millwood and Padilla and Jason Jennings, the vaunted left side of the infield--Young and Blalock--has seen better days, and they are counting on talented but star-crossed outfielders Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to give them a boost. The good news is that Ian Kinsler is a budding star at 2B and Jarrod Saltalamacchia projects as a Victor Martinez clone at C/1B. Avoiding 90 losses would be an achievement.
Hate to defend the Empire here, but it's an exaggeration to suggest the Yanks should brace for a significant decline this season. They're line-up scored 968 runs last year and I'd still take it over any other in the American League hands down, including Detroit. True they have some older players, but all you need to know about their bats is that Matsui will hit *eighth* for them, and having a annual 100 RBI man in that spot is simply ridiculous.
As for the Twins, the level of optimism about them locally actually surprises me. I'll tip my cap to their nearly flawless opening game, but their lack of proven starting pitching and gaping line-up holes will make it a long summer, despite the excitement that newcomers like Gomez and Young may be able to bring.
Mauer at Third.
I don't understand this. What are people talking about? Ok, I get that Mauer might be injury prone and he also is 6'5" tall which is taller than almost all catchers in the history of Baseball. But, what the heck. This is professional baseball and people just don't witch positions on a whim. Third base is not an easy position to play, no matter how good an athlet you are. Check out Michael Cuddyer's one year attempt at it-great arm, breat athlete and a bust at third. I imagine Mauer would have a similar adjustment period and how do the Twins survive Mauer's focus at playing a position he's never played before - worrying about balls arriving at forehead level before he has a chance to get his glove up - instead of hitting the ball. Seems like a recipe for another sub .300 year and thrid base is not exactly a undamending position to play for an injury prone athlet either. Mauer at third is one of the dumbest popular mantras the local sports scene in Minnesota has ever produced. IF Mauer ever has to stop playing catcher, he either has to go to first, the outfield, or DH not third. but, for the moment, he's a pretty good catcher.
Interesting analysis regarding the Twins, especially given the lead-in that you feel you're not 'drinking the Kool-Aid' with respect to the ballclub's chances. It makes sense that if everything works out as you say, then the club could conceivably still take third in the division (but much the same manner as last year, when the difference between third and second was about 20 games); I'm just not convinced things will work that way.
Young will eventually replace Hunter's bat in the outfield, but likely not in 2008; his OPS in 2007 was below league average even considering shortstops and catchers not named Mauer. For Young to improve to Huner's 2007 level of performance would be an event of mythic proportions, and even getting to the level of an average AL outfielder (about where Hunter was prior to 2007) would be an extremely pleasant surprise. Carlos Gomez, catchy nickname and all, is likely to be more reminiscent of Willie Norwood than Kirby Puckett in his first Twins season (though admittedly, nobody has compared Gomez to Puckett just yet). Meanwhile, putting Adam Everett** in at shortstop pretty much guarantees that you have a Puntoesque presence in the starting lineup, with the added bonus that you stlll have Nick Punto himself on the bench, ready to enter the game if Lamb or Harris struggles or gets hurt. I'm expecting the offense to be at least slightly worse than last season overall.
** -- And for those who think that Everett's glove will compensate for his weak bat, a nugget of trivia: since 2004, Everett's glove is estimated to have been worth seven wins to the Houston Astros (by Win Shares fielding analysis); Cristian Guzman's glove, over the same period, is estimated to have been worth five wins. While this point alone isn't conclusive, it suggests that for Everett's glove to have the impact some think it will, Everett would have to be five to seven games better than every other defensive shortstop in baseball, which I don't think can be rationally argued.
Even if the new arrivals perform well enough to keep the offense afloat or even improve it a bit, the pitching staff is where the team is going to end up circling the drain. The loss of Santana is obvious enough, but I think the loss of Silva may end up hurting nearly as much; people may argue over Silva's financial value, but the man was clearly the Twins #2 starter last year, being the only pitcher other than Santana to record more than 30 starts and more than 200 innings. As for the bullpen, Nathan is demonstrably excellent (but could continue to head downhill as he did from 2006 to 2007) while Neshek could continue to impress as the new set-up man. On the other hand, Juan Rincon went from being an outstanding set-up man in 2005 to being arguably a drag on the bullpen in 2007, while Jesse Crain's 2007 injury leaves him equally a question mark for 2008. Unless Gardy is planning to use Neshek and Nathan the way other managers used to use Mike Marshall, the bullpen's performance as a whole could actually end up average or worse in 2008.
I'm putting the Twins down for last place in a still-improving AL Central -- the Twins are arguably the only team in the division who didn't get better on balance in the offseason -- and to lose 100 or more games for the first time since 1982. The latter I put in not because I think it's certain, but because I think it's very possible and I want to be on record as having called it if it does happen.
David--
Good stuff, for the most part. Baseball Prospectus has Hunter with a .800 OPS and 165 runs+rbis for this coming season versus Young's .787 and 161 runs+rbis. I know his OPS was terrible last year-- 26 walks in 681 plate appearances will do that to you. All that said, I like the deal.
The Gomez thing is a false dichotomy. Nobody expects Kirby Puckett and merely saying Gomez will be closer to Norwood than to Kirby doesn't necessarily mean you think he'll *be* a Norwood clone or you would have said it that way. Shit, maybe he'll be Rich Becker--or Willie Tasby.
Yes, the pitching is suspect. Good points about Silva, who was very underrated last year but still isn't worth $12 million.
I can see the Twins finishing last--and yes, I think their 3rd place finish will be analogous to last year's third place finish--but the 100 losses, hey, that's the kind of bold specificity I admire. And if it happens, I'll shout you out.
Agree with the rankings. Boston and Cleveland are the premier clubs for this season. Everyone knows about C.C. and Carmono is equally dominating in a normal outting.
As for Seattle, the rotation could use good early appearances from Carlos Silva. He seems to hit his stride after the All-Star break but is less dependable early season.