Game #32, Home Game #16: Denver118, Minnesota 107
Game #33, Home Game #17: Dallas 101, Minnesota 78
1. Beating A Dead Horse
Al Jefferson and Craig Smith took the floor for the opening tap Friday night so you knew the Timberwolves would fall behind early. And, why, yes, Denver scored the first 12 points of the game and was up 12-2 when coach Randy Wittman mercifully subbed in Chris Richard for Smith with just 3:24 gone in the game. By the time Smith returned alongside Antoine Walker for Richard and Jefferson seven minutes and three seconds later, the score was 28-21, meaning the Wolves had outscored the Mavs 19-16 during that stretch. Nevertheless, to begin the second half, it was again Jefferson and Smith matched against Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin. And again Denver jumped out, this time 5-1 to go up 66-53 before Wittman gave Smith the hook, in favor of Walker.
When I asked Wittman after the game why Smith was yanked twice, he said because the Rhino wasn't getting back quickly enough on defense. Okay, got it.
The Dallas Mavericks came to town this afternoon. They started a front line of DeSagana Diop, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. The tricky matchup, of course, is Nowitzki. Ah, but not for Randy Wittman. He goes with the old tried and untrue, Jefferson at center, Smith at power forward and Ryan Gomes at small forward.
Listen folks, I really would like to be more original in my criticism of this ballclub. But when a squad is losing 29 of its first 33 games, including the last 8 in a row, and is getting demonstrably worse, not better, I feel it is important to point out the main reasons why this seems to be happening. And with precious few exceptions, it has to be said that when Jefferson plays center and Smith plays power forward, the Timberwolves get their ass kicked.
You have a wealth of stats to back this up, and I won't go back and get them (scroll back on previous posts if you want). Let's just focus on this afternoon. By what logic do you send out a beefy undersized former second round draft pick, who was twice benched in the last game for not getting back on defense, and who has trouble guarding players outside the paint, as the one to match up against the reigning league MVP, who just happens to be a half-foot taller, quicker, and a deadly outside shooter? Do we really need a manual with the words Craig Smith vs. Dirk Nowitzki = bad matchup in bold print to prevent this from happening? Apparently so, because when Smith went to the bench with 2 fouls in the first 3:35 of the game, Nowitzki already had 7 points and the Mavs were up 7, 11-4.
Now without question Nowitzki is a brutal matchup problem for most every team--that's a main reason why he's MVP. But there were at least three better options for Wittman than Craig Smith. One would have been to play Jefferson at center, Gomes at the power forward opposite Nowitzki, and Corey Brewer at small forward on Josh Howard. Or kick Marko Jaric up to the small forward slot and slide Rashad McCants--he of the 34 points the previous game--in at shooting guard. Or go big, with Chris Richard or Mark Madsen (Michael Doleac didn't dress) at center beside Jefferson at the power forward and Gomes at the small forward. Or throw a front line of Jefferson at center, Walker at the power forward guarding Nowitzki, and Gomes on Howard. Because Gomes, Jefferson, Walker, Jaric, Madsen, and Richard are all better matchup options on Dirk Notwitzki than Craig Smith.
And indeed, all but Richard got a chance to guard Nowitzki at some point in the game. For the most part, Nowitzki burned them all, finishing with 30 points on 12-20 FG and 5-5 FT. But Walker and Gomes took away his easy looks from three-point range, and it was good to see Jefferson reach down and get feisty with Nowitzki in the 3rd and early 4th quarters, bodying him up and making it a personal battle. Jefferson lost that struggle but the notion that he waged it, wagered a little of his personal identity on trying to stop someone for a change, was one of the few silver linings in this nasty 23-point spanking that wasn't even that close.
Again, I understand I've said all of this before and am "beating a dead horse" as they say (unfortunately a very fitting analogy for this Wolves team right now). But Al Jefferson and the Minnesota Timberwovles play much much better with a legitimate center on the floor. Today, Richard and Madsen played center for a combined 21:08. During that time, Dallas outscored Minnesota by 2 points. In the 26:52 Madsen or Richard was not playing center, Dallas outscored Minnesota by 21 points.
This continues a year-long pattern that surely has been noticed by *someone* in the organization by now. The only logical explanation is that Wittman and the front office stubbornly see some benefit in perpetuating a consistently bad lineup. Yeah, one coujld argue that Dallas's first quarter blowout quickly made the Madsen/Richard minutes in the second half garbage time, negating the plus/minus emphasis. (A full six minutes into the game, the Wolves had 1 rebound, 1 assist, 3 turnovers and were allowing the Mavs to shoot 78% (7-9FG).) But then how to explain Richard going plus +3 in the first quarter against Denver the other night--when the game theoretically was still in reach--only to never again see action during the other three quarters? No, the Jefferson-Smith pairly has been willfully rammed down the throat of Wolves fans by this coaching and front office staff. Wittman has occasionally justified it as providing better front court offense, but the awful defense from duo more than negates that supposed advantage.
Wittman stalked away and cut off his press conference early today, once again vowing to make "changes," and once again callign forth all kinds of fighting analogies to say that the Wolves lack heart. Well, yes, it appears that way. Certainly less heart than they showed in November, and slightly less than they showed in December. But what the coach needs to remember is that the hearts of players grow, like their confidence, when they are put in a position to succeed.
2. Make McCants Prove Himself
Ironically, pairing Jefferson and Smith on the front line is one of the precious few things Wittman has done consistently for most of the season. Another, by default, is playing Sebastian Telfair at the point. What consistent Wolves watcher doesn't have a very clear idea of what Jefferson, Smith and Telfair can and can't do?
But if Wolves fans are to endure an epically horrible season, they deserve that management, A) Identify which key players need to evaluated, and B) Get as large a sample size as possible by which to evaluate them. Put simply, there are certain players that need to prove or disprove themselves this season. And I'd put Rashad McCants at the top of the list.
Why? Because McCants is the team's premiere scoring threat on the perimeter. Because he has undergone microfracture surgery and needs to be physically vetted. And because McCants is a player of great virtues and vices, and the Wolves need to see if the virtues can be maintained with more consistency, and if the vices are a product of simple immaturity of something more fundamental.
For all you McCants doubters out there, I understand. I see the scowls, the reach-in fouls, the neglect to penetrate and simply jack up jumpers, the bushels of points that don't matter and the paucity of key hoops that could swing a game or two Minnesota's way. But I also saw him get a career-high 34 in the flow of the offense Friday night. And I saw him get to the line 17 times in 55:24 over the past two games. The McCants supporters can appropriately note that if Al Jefferson goes off for 34 and 21 and shoots 17 FTs, we are all more apt to overlook his shakey defense, lack of passing and other deficiencies.
Besides, what are your backcourt options, folks? Sebastian Telfair looks fried, Corey Brewer can't stick a J, Marko Jaric is approximately as inconsistent as McCants, and Gerald Green is earning a C- in Basketball 101. Yes, perhaps McCants is a perpetual tease and a toxic head case destined to be more trouble than he's worth. If the Wolves believe they know that to be true already, then they ought to be force feeding Corey Brewer in the backcourt rotation with Telfair and Jaric and given the vet Greg Buckner a little more burn to try and pull out a win or two. I think McCants remains an enigma. After awhile, that ceases to become a teasing mystery and turns into an deadly flaw--call it strangely willful inconsistency. But isn't this lost season supposed to be about getting to the bottom of enigmas, and tossing away the bad apples and priming and then accelerating the development of those who seem to be getting a clue?
Stick Shaddy in the starting lineup for 30 minutes per game, minimum. State that this will continue at least until Randy Foye returns, and quite possibly beyond. Take some of it out of Telfair's minutes, some of it out of Jaric, and some of it out of Gomes--Telfair needs a breather (psychologically if not physically), we know the Jaric rollercoaster intimately already, and Gomes is hardly a sure bet to stick around once his contract expires. The notion of a Foye-Jefferson-McCants triad on offense remains the rosiest point-scoring scenario before the next NBA Draft.
3. Quick Hits
Remember all that talk about how much this team pulls for each other and how tight and enthusiastic they are? It has been true and it has been remarkable. But it can't last much longer without some good news, like a win or two or Foye's imminent return and a lineup shift that suddenly pays big dividends. Al Jefferson in particular is starting to get surly, McCants is a couple of weeks from blowing, especially if his minutes continue to yo-yo, and Randy Wittman's post-game snits are already running out of juice.
Also, remember all that talk about what a brutal schedule the Wolves had in December, and how things would improve in January? This was almost totally based on home games versus road games. For the record, the January schedule is if anything tougher than December's. Portland, Denver and Dallas were all correctly figured to be losses. Miami at home without Wade and Shaq looks to be a golden opporunity to bag the squad's first W since the Winter Solstice, but after that they have Houston and San Antonio on the road, Golden State at home, then Phoenix and Denver on the road before going to Golden State and Boston on either side of playing Phoenix here. If you're wondering at what point the Wolves' winning percentage falls behind Philadelphia's NBA worst-ever percentage of .110 (9-73) from 1972-73, it would be 4-33.
Kevin McHale, quoted in Wolftracks magazine: "Another solid veteran for us is Antoine Walker. He gives us a different look at the four spot and also can play the three spot. He can shoot and help spread the floor-- and he understands the game very well." All true. And 'Toine at the 3--what a concept.
I was supposed to go the game tonight, but a chest cold sent me home after work instead, so I watched it on TV. I think what we saw from Shaddy reinforces what Britt said. The guy has too much talent not to play him, especially on a team as lacking in talent as this one.
With Foye now cleared to return soon, I'd really like to see a Foye/Shaddy or perhaps Foye/Brewer starting backcourt with Shaddy as the 6th man. Bassy will get his minutes backing up Foye. I'm not sure what that leaves for Jaric, but I'm not too concerned about that right now.
Sorry this is kinda long
One should really be starting Jaric over Telfair. He just brings more to the table, and has fewer deficiencies than Bassy. He knows how to execute a layup (props for that) and he’s a decent shooter. Most importantly though he brings size, and hence is a defensive presence. A Dirk Nowitzki might at least flinch with a Jaric in his face, but even an outstreched Telfair can’t even be seen by Dirk. In today's game your not going to survive at 6'0 ft unless your exceptional. Sebastian, although good at times, really just isn't exceptional. Not until he learns how to finish. His strength, and advantage over Jaric, is his speed. So lets just bring him in when that creates an advantage for us, or when Marco needs a rest.
The second guard spot goes hands down to McCants. Someone suggested much further down even, that we try Shad at the point at least until Foye comes back. That really isn't that crazy of an idea. I mean we did start Craig Smith at Center the other night on MARCUS CAMBY didn't we? This is less bizarre to me than that, maybe even slightly innovative. If Rashad would look to pass first, that could be interesting. But either way, PG or not, McCants does need to be on the floor. He must be allowed to prove himself. This guy is a scorer, and we need someone to be.
At the three you have Corey Brewer. Corey is quick and energetic. This makes up for some speed we lost when we put Bassy on the bench. Corey is probably as likely to hit a three as a layup, so now you have three guys who can, on offense all get to the rim, or are a threat (in Corey's case, COULD be a threat) from the perimeter. They can all defend their guy on defense, and each have a fairly high basketball IQ.
At the four you put the beast where he belongs. You give our greatest asset the room he needs to operate. You set the stage for Al to deliver, as that is what he was brought here to do. His defensive weaknesses are further negated when you put him into his natural position, and he will thrive offensively. No more Rhino at the four /Jefferson at the five wolf shit. When it's as blatantly obvious as it is to the fan base, and when the numbers don't get much clearer in it's favor, this move HAS to be made. Rhino will get decent minutes playing for Al, when he sits.
At the five you put in a big guy. No not Craig Smith. A big guy, a center. Really doesn't matter too much who it is. Mad Dogg, Doleac or Richard, although I'd have to say Richard would have to be the most logical choice. Chris Richard plays under the radar, but really does a decent job. What more could one ask out of their rookie? He also brings a certain advantage in relative quickness for his size. How nice it would be to see one of our bigs get back on D. Why doesn’t he hardly ever play? There is nothing to justify his lack of playing time, nothing. It bewilders me. It really frustrates me to no end why our coach who has a knack for never saying the right thing, can never even seem to do the right thing. Both statistically and visually, it is clear as day what the problems are on the floor as far as positions and matchups are concerned. Make the simple adjustment please. As far as Richard goes and considering all the random ass rotations we have seen thus far already, what is it exactly that behooves Randy Dimwit Wittman (I said it first) not to give the kid some significant minutes is beyond me.
Tomorrow, make these changes Randy. To the rest of the pack put forth the usual effort, but this time let’s get mad, play with inspiration and win a fucking ball game.
On a side note, I’m surprised I haven’t heard it from anyone else really, so I feel I should. I would just like to personally voice my displeasure with the officiating against us all season long. Saying it's fair to say it has been unfair, is an understatement.
Its tuff being a Minnesota fan & seeing all the losses but this team is more fun to watch than any we had during the Kevin Garnett era! I'll tell you why. Last year it got so bad in the Target Center I could no longer take my kids and grandkids to home games. The reason was the foul mouths of Garnett and Ricky Davis. No way I was going to allow my grandkids to listen to that garbage. Now we have a bunch of guys that hold their mouth and work hard & hustle. The winds will come eventually.
ESPN has started a "worst record ever?" game-tracker comparing the Wolves to the 72-73 Sixers 9-win team, the exact opposite of the "best record ever?" game-tracker they have comparing the Celtics to the '96 Bulls.
I know the situation is/was a lot more complicated than just KG leaving one bad team and it challenging for the worst ever while him going to a different bad team has it challenging for the best ever. I know there's Ray Allen, and Foye's knee, and future considerations, and all of the other stuff as well. I KNOW it, dang it! But now that they have those two game-tracker links next to each other and I keep looking at it (it's like worrying a sore tooth...I can't stop) I can't seem to make myself believe that all of the other factors are so relevant. Every time I look at it my eyes bleed...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/features/worst
Oh my. What is really scary is that Sixers team had a stretch where they won 5 of 7 games. Can anyone possibly see this Wolves team going on a nice little run like that?
The futility record may be in serious jeopardy. To make matters worse I bet two of my buddies a steak dinner and a round of golf respectively that the Wolves would win at least 20 this year. Being a Wolves fan is bad for the soul and the pocketbook!
If I'm right that 5 of 7 stretch came after they fired the coach.
Alright, you knaves. Let's start the chant. Hopefully it will crescendo in the coming weeks or months:
fire wittman. Fire Wittman. FIRE WITTMAN. FIRE! WITTMAN!
It's time. This guy has proven himself a two-time loser, at least. Ran the Cavs into the ground, running our Pups into the ground.
I mean, fuck, consistency. Britt, all the other great bball minds on this site, it's what you've echoed since those heady 2-12 (?) days. If you're not trying to find a winning combination to hit the playoffs with, THEN GIVE THE YOUTH SOME BURN!! CONSISTENLY AND EVERY NIGHT!
How many times must AJ and Rhino look like fools? Fuck it, play GG each night, play 'em all! Enough. Enough!
BLLLAARRGGH!
Anyone feeling me? I'll read this board until we're 4-78 for all the great hoops minds, but let's get this asshole fired.
Amen. Fire Wittman's ass!
I preferr FIRE MCHALE!. Worst vp ever. Lost so many good players in the last decade. How is coach going to win with a weakazz roster? In this league, you need at least 3 players scoring 15+ consistently or 2 with 20+ to be a championship contender.
If he give the roster last year one more potential scorer like AI, then they would at least have a chance for the playoff this year. Why can't he get players like ray allen and rashad lewis while other vps can? Hell, we had ray when drafted. McHELL has a poor vision. Who in the world would trade davis/blount for wackazz walker/doleac. What the twolves need is someone like Dumar as vp.
If I was vp, with the current roster, I'd keep jefferson at 4, rhino at backup 4, green at 2 , telfair at backup 1, foy at 1, ratlif at backup 5. Need to trade the rest of the squad for a 5 that can score, board, and block and a good 3 that can play d.
There's too many anonymous posts popping up. I know I'm being linked by some sites that bring people here who don't know the rules, and I hesitate to doink folks who bring something to the table. I'm pointing out the anonymous problem on this guy's post because all he is essentially saying is McHale sucks and Joe Dumars would do a better job. The unwritten rule around here is that posters try to tell the rest of us something we don't already know.
In any case, head's up people. "Anonymous" doesn't provide you with an identity, and if you want to be faceless and fade into the woodwork, you've come to the wrong spot. On the other hand, backing that azz up (h/t Juvenile) every other sentence or going the McFail/McHell/McCliche route isn't really going to cut it either, cool name or no name.
I'm sure it must have come up earlier but ... isn't anyone able to require making an account? I mean this site certainly doesn't look like it was built by ppl that don't know their web development...
I agree about firing Wittman, but when is McHale held accountable for theis mess. It was just 3 1/2 years ago when we had the best record in the West(58-24), had a shot at Josh Howard in the draft the next year & were riding pretty high. Now we're looking at no more than 15 wins & not a lot of immediate help in site. McHale must get fired first, then the front office(who is Jim Stack anyway), & on the way out they can grab Wittman & his staff. Taylor needs to change as well. You fire a guy(Casey) who was 20-20 & give a 3 year extension to a guy who coaches the same team to a 12-30 record to finish out. Dumb & dumber!!!!!!!!!!!
hehe, I'm defenitly with you but as you can see in New York, not much anyone can do, they have to realize it for themselves and for some reason they can't see what all the rest of us see.
Bleh, you're so right again Britt.
I can't think of any other solution than start rebuilding the front court as well as the players..
I don't understand why McCants isn’t starting but I'd guess the organization already decided it doesn’t want him around. I bet they want Foye to play the 2 and plan to draft a PG. How McHale could have passed up Roy is just baffling. When Portland wins a title in a few years they should send a ring.
What about Brewer? I know everyone loves him because he works really hard, but his jumper is broke, he isn’t strong enough to finish inside and at this point it’s fair to ask whether he can improve enough offensively to be a starting caliber 2 or 3 in this league. Who knows, but shooting 30 percent from the field is embarrassing even for a rookie. If they picked Noah at least they'd have a decent center option to play with Al Jefferson.
On the bright side, it was cool to see AC play so well and actually bury some shoots. If he can get better Brewer can too. Although AC wasn't a top ten pick either.
Come on ppl, as I said before. Now it's easy to say Roy is such a great player. Every draft source had no idea who would be the better. It's a draft, nobody has a glass ball.
Every draft site I read had them as equally talented, only roy being a little better at "point guarding" and foye better at being explosive. For as far as anyone could tell at the time, they were equally talented.
That's why they just made some cash out of the fact they got to choose first... There's was really no certainty who was the better...
The difference is that Roy has a natural position and you don't have to worry about where he plays and who he guards. He's a SG. Foye has been sold as a "combo" guard, he's not a natural PG and is undersized against a lot of NBA 2s. Don't give McHale a free pass for not realizing Roy is a better overall player. He said himself a big reason they passed on him was injury concerns.
I agree with William on this one. There is no excuse for McHale passing on Josh Howard and then taking the risky HS pick Ndubi. There was a good reason at the time to trade Ray Allen (for Marbury) and there were reasons to pass on Roy for Foye.
What should also be remembered is that the Wolves had the logjam at the shooting guard position when Roys name came up. There was Ricky Davis and Hassel in the starting lineup with Marko coming off the bench. Obviously, Roy has proven he is the better player than any of these thre, but KG was in no mood to have proven veterans getting displaced by rookies. Davis and Hassell had the majoreity of minutes covered for Casey at the 2 and 3. The Wolves still needed a center and a pointguard to go with KG. Foye came with PG credentials. Still, as a rookie, KG was not willing to go into the season with Foye as his starting point guard and lobbied for a veteran free agent. Thus, Mike James. With hindsight all these decisions look bad. But, at the time, with the priority to still try and get the most out of KG in his remaining dominant years (while not spending too much and compensating for other bad decisions in the past like Howard and Joe Smith contract, etc) passing on Roy for Foye was the smart thing to do.
I disagree. Even at the time many people thought we should have gone with Roy, including then-coach Casey (and, not to toot my own horn, but me too--if you check the comments from the draft-day thread over at Britt's previous digs you'll see I correctly predicted that we had just traded away the Rookie of the Year). It wasn't a catastrophically bad decision like the Ebi-over-Howard pick, but it was a mistake, and there were those who realized it even then.
I know there were people who said we should take Roy over Foye. There were just as many people saying Foye over Roy. At the time it was a toss-up. With Hindsight it looks like we should have taken Roy. However, there is not any guarantee that Roy would have won rookie of the Year with the T-Wolves last year. He would not have had nearly the same opportunity that he had with Portland. I don't know what would have happened, but I can imagine him being buried on the bench behind Davis, Hassell and Jaric with McCants coming back after his injury as well. We were stockpiled at the Shooting guard position. Foye came with the assumption that he would be getting a lot of his minutes at the point. If he would have gone to Portland, I can imagine that he may have won the Rookie of the year award there over Roy.
If it would have gone down as you wished, and Roy wins the Rookie of the year with the Twolves we might still have KG, but we'd also like still be stuck with Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, Marko Jaric, Mike James, Troy Hudsen, Dwayne Casey, Trenton Hassell and a draft pick like Spencer Hawes or Acie Law. We'd be in that middle ground where it'd be too risky to trade KG's favorites and also trade marginal contributers like Mike James for Juwan Howard without another option at the point. We'd still be wondering how to get the 7th or 8th seed in the Western conference and trying to figure out what to do with the logjam at the shooting guard and making small offseason decisions while hoping for the best.
Two points:
If a team has a top ten pick, in my opinion, it has to pick the best player regardless of position or whatever screwed up situation their roster is in. Right now it appears Roy is a lot better than Foye and McHale deserves criticism for not recognizing that.
As for Foye being the better option at the time because he could play point, I think that just makes McHale look worse now because Foye wasn't thought of as a true point guard anyway and Roy now serves as one of Portland's backup point guards himself. His PG skills are probably nearly as good as Foye's in addition to his superior overall game. Plus indications are that the front office wants Foye to play more 2 guard, which no one ever thought Foye could do as well in the NBA as Roy.
I understand hindsight is 20-20 and all that, but given McHale's track record, it wasn't hard to predict the result of that trade.
Criticize away at McHale. I'm pretty frustrated with the guy myself. As much as I'd like to see him vindicated there is no doubt he has made some awful moves for this team. But in the order of his mistakes trading Foye for Roy is not that high on the list in my opinion. It is more bad luck than a bad decision. Foye is the future point guard for this team until a better one comes along. Right now, neither Jaric or Telfair is even close. He was very good last year and poised to make the jump this year before the injury. He is not in Brandon Roys league anymore as far as a potential superstar, but he was a very good rookie last year who demonstrated that he could play the point position, although he had some learning still to do. The only way he plays the shooting guard spot is if McCants completely fails and we decide Brewer should get minutes at the 3. Then a Telfair/Foye backcourt might make sense with Foye as the SG, but hes not playing SG because he can't play point. He's playing SG because they have given up on Jaric and MCants.
Foye was still a very promising player with a large upside until the stress reaction. Now, who knows what he becomes. Bad luck. Passing Josh Howard was not bad luck. It was a stupid bad decision.
Joe Smith contract, stupid decision. Trading Ray Allen for Marbury and then having Marbury force a trade because he didn't want to be second fiddle to KG was bad luck. All in all, I think Mchale has made many more bad decisions than been the victim of bad luck. But, I think the Foye for Roy trade was more bad luck than a bad decision. But, thats just what I think.
One last point for Jim. Saying McHale deserves criticism because Roy is the better player NOW misses a huge point. NBA history is littered with players whose careers were cut short to injuries or tragedies. Steve Aschburner had a couple of recent columns at SI.com on some of those players. If Brandon Roy goes out and blows his knee tomorrow night at Golden State effectively ending his career, it does not make McHale all the sudden a smart man worthy of praise - once Foye comes back and establishes himself as a very good player and a starting point guard in this league.
The Wolves suck right now, but Randy Foye is injured. He is still a very promising player and potential future all star in this league.
Obviously, the scenarios I suggest are leaps and bounds better than what we have now. But,my point is it still wouldn't stop people from criticizing the Wolves for all their shortcomings and hearing people on this board wondering how McHale could not foresee the logjam at shooting guard when he drafted Roy. Even hindsight isn't 20/20, because we really don't know how it would have all played out.
but, knowing what I know now (Foye sits out most of 2007-08), Yeah, the Wolves should have drafted Brandon Roy.
Before the season began, I was interested in seeing an entire youth movement season for the Wolves. I expected the rotation to look something like: Foye/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/center with Jaric, Green, and Smith as the main back-ups with the hope that Richard and/or Bassy eventually find a spot in the rotation. I was really interested in seeing if the KG + Kids line-up from last season actually had any juice like the +/- numbers suggested. I knew that Jefferson was a step-down from KG, but with more experience and talent from the Kids helping to bridge the gap between KG and Jefferson's contributions I thought that a youth movement team could be the type of dangerous team that Portland was a year ago, that wins around 30 games and nobody wants to play down the stretch.
This season has gone NOTHING like I thought it might. Foye's injury was obviously huge. Jefferson has been a bit more option 2/3 on a good team (think Zach Randolph with a better attitude) when I thought/hoped he might be option 1/2 (hoped for Elton Brand). But the complete lack of identity, the dead-end vets playing as much/more than the young players with upside that dreadfully need experience, the lack of commitment to just put the kids out there night-in and night-out and see if they have anything over the course of a season...I didn't see that coming.
And it's depressing. One can be sold on the idea that "talented" youth that make dumb mistakes for 35 minutes per game could eventually get better. That is worth watching. And if that "talented" youth can't get better playing big minutes every night for a year, then the season was still worth something because you've learned who to keep and who to let go. You know what moves you need to make in the off-season. But we're 33 games into an 82 game season, and the Wolves have NOTHING to build on. There are no knowns. There isn't even any progress towards knowns. I REALLY hope they take Mr. Robson's suggestions and just leave McCants (as well as Brewer, Jefferson, and if/when he comes back Foye) on the court for big minutes every night and just let them do what they're going to do. This season is lost, so just put them out there and let them sink/swim. Actually get SOMETHING useful out of this season, as right now it is exceedingly hard to figure out what the point is...
I hear you. Playing the youth is the only way to rebuild. If the coach isn't doing it, he's a fool. Play the youth!
It worked for the Celtics last year, it'll work for Minnesota, too.
Last year, the Celtics HAD to play their youth, with ALL their veterans injured for significant portions, or all of the season (Pierce, Szczerbiak, Scalabrine, Ratliff, Olowokandi, even Tony Allen, a "borderline veteran").
Yes, I'm a Celtics fan, but the point is that I was excited despite all the losses last year, because the games were exciting, and I could see the tremendous forward progress happening.
There were several games where Ryan Gomes, at 24, was the oldest player to play in the game for the Celtics last year, and most of the roster was 21 or 22.
With all that youth playing time, games were exciting and close. It was as entertaining a 24-58 season as you'll see. During their 18 game losing streak, their largest loss was by just 14 points. Their average loss was 8. They were in most games until the final minute. When Pierce returned, they were instantly a .500 team again, but he and Jefferson got so beat up as the only scoring threats, that both sat out many of the games in the last month, and they lost a bunch more.
Most importantly, they vastly increased the ability and trading value of their entire youth-dominated high-potential roster. Just due to the youth development of last season, and some time to heal veterans, they could have kept the same roster, and won 45-50 games this year. Instead, they consolidated 6 players and a high draft pick into 2 all-stars, signed 2 good free agents, and you know the rest.
So I agree. Minnesota should play their youth. They can't do any worse than their veterans, and they'll be more entertaining, and it will help them a lot more long-term (and probably short term).
As bad as it looks now, I think you'll find that the Garnett deal was a fairly good "rebuilding" deal for Minnesota. Jefferson and Gomes are terrific, mature, fundamentally sound young players. They also get two 1st round draft picks. Telfair and Green probably won't ever amount to much, but could be useful additions to trades.
drza44,
You've had some spot on posts recently (at least in my view). Nice work!
I've also mentioned the Randolph/Jefferson comparison, and I am becoming more convinced of it the more I see.
Losing with youth not only makes sense from a team development standpoint, but is a far more palatable product for what is left of the fan base. Why we aren't taking this route is beyond me, and it is becoming really difficult to watch.
I agree that drza44 has come up solid recently, and especially like the way he contrasts preseason expectations and current reality. I likewise understand where the Jefferson-Zach Randolph comparisons are coming from, as they have stylistically similar games and some of the same strengths and weaknesses.
That said, there is absolutely no question in my mind that Jefferson is the better player, and figures to widen that gap in the next few years. Now in his 7th year in the league, Randolph has never averaged more than 10.5 rebounds per game; Al is currently at 12.3. Only once in his career has Randolph ever averaged more than the 20.8 points per game Jefferson is currently compiling. Then you get to the intangibles: Jefferson doesn't get into fistfights with his teammates on a fairly regular basis, and instead of humping for a max contract and then laying down like a dog, he defies his agent and takes less than max money for a franchise that clearly needed to sign him to save face, then he goes out and plays hard every night.
There's enough legitimate negativity to hurl at this ballclub. Let's not underestimate their rare virtues.
I think drza44 was saying (and this is where I agree) that AJ has a similar game, similar upside, similar impact. Jefferson, no doubt is a more desirable player because he doesn't come with the same bs baggage.
Both are solid low post scorers and rebounders that don't bring a whole lot more in terms of intangibles. And both play terrible D.
Jefferson still has a chance to be more Brand than Randolph. Brand has been on one playoff team his entire career; in a similar situation as Jefferson's this year (1999-2000 Bulls), his team finished 15-67.
Also, Randolph has always been paired with either a bigger or taller player than him (Rasheed Wallace, Dale Davis, Shawn Kemp, Arvydas Sabonis, Joel Pryzbilla, Theo Ratliff, Jamaal Magloire, Eddy Curry) and still played bad D. Comparing the two only makes sense if you only look at Jefferson's D with Richard/Madsen/Doleac/Ratliff next to him.
I think making judgments on any of the players who haven't played more than 4 years in the league is hasty, especially with the amount of inconsistency in players' roles. I posted this on another site before, but basketball-reference.com has a way of comparing players statistically from all eras to show how they measure up with people at a certain age. Here are some of the comparisons made with some of our current players:
Jefferson - Shawn Kemp (young), Vlade Divac, Emeka Okafor
Telfair - Dajuan Wagner, Mike Bibby, Terrell Brandon
Gomes - Udonis Haslem, Matt Harpring, Desmond Mason
Green - Lamond Murray, Richard Hamilton, Purvis Short
Foye - Anthony Peeler, Vernon Maxwell, Vinny Del Negro
Smith - George Lynch, Ryan Gomes, Mitchell Butler
McCants - J.R. Smith, Quentin Richardson, Harold Miner
Madsen - Corie Blount, Mark Acres, Ed Pinckney
Jaric - Alvin Williams, Aaron McKie, David Wingate
Buckner - Mario Elie, Trent Tucker, Don Buse
In each of those, there are good and bad possibilities, with some in the middle. But with the young players, we don't know how they're going to turn out. In Jefferson's case, it seems like his potential is higher than what we're giving him credit for.
I'm going to have to disagree with the Randolph comparison.
They are similar in that they both require large volumes of shots to produce their points (as they're both relatively terrible at getting to the line), play the same position and (at least at this point for Al) aren't franchise players. However, Randolph is a little shorter, a little quicker and relies much more on his face-up game and jumper (hence his pretty terrible FG%'s) than Al. Al is a much better pure back to the basket scorer, a better rebounder and a better positional defender if he's at the 4 (though it's not saying much).
If I had to throw out a comparison I'd say he reminds me much more of a younger, slightly more post-oriented Brand. He doesn't block shots quite like Brand and is a worse passer, but I feel he's much closer to him as an overall player given his strengths than he is to Randolph because of his weaknesses. Given his current skill set and likelihood of improvement, I firmly believe this is the last year anyone will throw out Randolph's name as a comparison..
If he's ever put in a situation that plays to his strengths, for example with a play making PG and a C to take pressure off him, we'll see what he can really do. Until then I have to agree with GJK that it's a bit too early to really make comparisons, as he's a fairly unique player at this stage in his career.
Thank both of you for the compliments, and yes, I meant the Jefferson/Randolph comparison more in a stylistic way than anything else. Randolph's negative aura can't be overstated, and the fact that Jefferson has the positive attitude that Mr. Robson points out is a huge difference. I don't think anyone would even consider taking Randolph over Jefferson for that reason alone (let alone the microfracture surgery).
But for an on-court comparison of talents, IMO Randolph pre-microfracture might be the best match in the NBA for Jefferson. Keep in mind that Randolph was (like Jefferson) drafted as a teenager, averaged his 20.1 ppg and 10.5 rpg with excellent low-post moves at age 22 the year before he hurt his knee, and last season's 23.6/10.1 at age 25 was probably his first time at near full strength since the surgery. Outside of the knee problems (on-court) and the toxic locker-room presence (off-court) there's not a lot talent-wise to separate what Jefferson gives vs. Randolph. They have similar body types, similar moves on offense, similar limitations on offense outside of scoring (Randolph's actually a better passer), and (pre-knee) similar strength/athleticism.
And I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Jefferson being a healthier, better-attitude Zach Randolph...Randolph's talented, and there's a reason that teams would overlook his negatives due to that talent. I had just hoped that Jefferson would be more Elton Brand (similar body type but much better defensively and a better passer), that's all. I think Brand could be the best player on a contending team if the supporting cast were very strong (or definitely the second-best on a contender), whereas I think Randolph would have to be the 2nd or perhaps even 3rd best player on a contender...and so far it seems to me that Jefferson has that same option 2/3 on a contender ceiling as well.
During the Denver game I couldn't help but to think that Shaddy should get a chance at the point. The team doesn't run complicated sets, he can't be worse than Marko, he's a better shooter than Bassy, and as brief stretches with Big Al showed, he can run a 2 man game with surprising effectiveness. If anything, you reduce the amount of sets and let him improvise.
Excuse the negativity and replowed ground, but this is my 1st contribution. I have been going to about 12 games a yr since 1989 and have watched most of the rest on TV. Green and McCants must have the lowest BB IQs in the league. Smith and Big Al are the worst low post defenders. Jaric is perhaps the most inconsistent guard I have seen, but McCants could give him a good run. Mad Dog has less talent than any player I have seen (I do admire his effort). Other than KG, our two best draft choices over the years are B Roy and R Allen. KG is gone, traded for the players who are headed for the worst season in NBA history. On Sunday the Mav's stole the ball several times and the victim appeared to be startled, like he was waking up from a deep sleep. Igcef7 never thought it would be possible to say this, but George Bush is a better president than Kevin McHale is a GM. I love watching pro BB and think Mr Robson is a great writer, but after thousands of wasted hours and dollars watching this franchise I find it awfully difficult to be positive.
Wow! That is hilarious that our two best draft picks in the history of the Wolves (besides KG) were traded away as quickly as possible. You have to wonder at McHale's judgement. Plus when you look at his consistent trading down for coaches it is odd. First we had Flip, fired. Casey, Fired, McHale, and now Wittman. Each one a step down. You have to wonder who will be next. Maybe some homeless person from behind the target center? Maybe Glen Taylor wants to try coaching? Maybe an 8 year old girl? I apologize for my negative jesting but seriously, enough is enough.
At what point can the people rise up in revolt and chop off Taylor's head like they used to do in France, in the good old days? Can't we just seize the Wolves from Taylor by using the Eminent Domain law? For the good of the people? Something?
It is frustrating to feel so powerless while you watch someone consistently beat and bludgeon something you love until it is a bloody pulp. It is a real crime.
I wonder if we could work out some sort of boycott of the Wolves until McHale and Wittman are gone? What if the people organized and demanded a competent front office? Could that work? Has it ever been done?
We could organize a sort of Wolves' Strike. Except it is the people who are striking. We can get signs and picket in front of Target Center. Try to stop "Scabs" from buying tickets and going to games. Is this a horrible or a wonderful idea? I am not sure.
A happy--if not belated--JR Rider Arraignment Day to everyone!
Back in JR's day, I remember when the Wolves used to come out flat for early Sunday games. Someone should be looking in the locker room for a soda can with a hole in it, because the Wolves effort resurrected those long forgotten days. All we need is for Rashad McCants to say he cares.
Now that even Jim Souhan (just weeks ago a Wolves defender) has bared his teeth and begun nipping at the organizational carcass, it's time for a little positivity in the face of failure. Things can change, sometimes even for the better!
Look at Anthony Carter, a point guard the Wolves discarded. A career 39 percent shooter, he's shooting 53 percent this season for the Nuggets. Why? It could be a contract year or performance enhancing substances, but my guess is the style of play and the teammates he has. He was +17 on Friday night, and set the tone early with aggressive play. By the time the playoffs begin, teams will force him or the slumping Chucky Atkins to shoot instead of Anthony and Iverson, but it's an indication that if you can find an identity and the players to buy into the system, good things can happen.
Whether it happens here, that's another matter. But it CAN happen.
Britt -
I've taken to recording the T'wolves games and fast-forwarding through the quarters for signs of life. There were none yesterday afternoon.
McHale highlighting 'Toine is fine, but is he the future of the franchise? Let's bring back Chubby (no pun intended) Checker, we might need him.
There is logic in having McCants make it or break it. But that assumes that he demonstrate that he is, indeed, making it and not consistently breaking it. After all, when you have only 4 wins at this juncture, what else is there to do than audition?
The rest is previously plowed ground.
Britt,
I couldn't agree more that McCants should be starting (or at the very least getting starter minutes of 30+ EVERY game). Maddeningly inconsistent though he may be, his upside is significantly higher than Marko, Brewer (offensively, plus Brewer will eventually be a 3), Green, and Buckner. And, the fact that we need to make a decision on him makes it an absolute no-brainer.
McCants could potentially be a valuable starting 2 or Microwave-style sixth man in this league. Even if it is a long shot, at least there is a shot, and that is more than you can say for the other guys. What do we have to lose?
PS- McCants does not have a low hoops IQ, he may be a gambler and lack focus, but I have seen too many pretty passes out of him this season that fly in the face of that statement.
Despite all the calls for McCants to get more minutes, I think it is him more than the coaches to blame for the minutes he gets. Every game I've seen him in he commits a ridiculous number of fouls, he forces the coaches hand. So until he can get that part of his game under control it is pointless to ask that he get 30+ minutes a game.
Yes, McCants is foul prone. But you've been incredibly unlucky with respect to McCants if fouls have sent him to the bench every game you've watched. For example, I guess you didn't see the Denver game Friday night, where McCants played 12:48 in the first half with only one foul, scoring 13 on 5-9 FG. Meanwhile, Jaric and Telfair both had more minutes 16:33 and 15:54, respectively, and were a combined 3-11 FG; this just a game or two after Wittman publicly complained about a lack of outside shooting. McCants went on to get another 21 in the second half of that game, but still couldn't crack the starting lineup Sunday. Instead it was Jaric and Telfair combining for 9-21 FG while McCants shot 6-10, and outscored the both of them, 21-20.
Question: Who among Jaric, Telfair and McCants has the potential to most dramatically improve the Wolves in the next 3-4 years? Question: Who has the best plus/minus per 48 among the three? The answer, of course, is McCants. Yet Shaddy has played fewer minutes than Telfair and would also be behind Marko if the latter hadn't been felled by that flu--Jaric has 765 minutes to Shaddy's 780.
BTW--Craig Smith commits more fouls per minute than McCants. Somehow that hasn't kept him out of a very dysfunctional starting lineup.
Ah, this is why I come to this site - I learn things. And just as you suspected I've seen very few games this year, so few that it's pretty unfair of me to try to really judge players. Given what you and others have said, I now agree with all the posters who are asking for more minutes for Rashad. It just seems the few games I watch, I see what Jaric brings to the table. He is inconsistent, but even on nights when he's not scoring he offers passing and defense. But he is not going to be a top 3 guy on a good team - I do think he could be a starter on a good team (at the SF or possibly SG - he is only an emergency PG in my mind). Rashad at his best could clearly be at least a top 3 guy on a good team... lets hope that these flashes become longer and he does start stringing some good games together. I would like to see him play a game well either early or late when the game was still winnable. Great games when the outcome is not in doubt don't impress me that much. Anyway, play him enough to resolve everyone's questions.
Switching gears a bit, when Foye returns I guess I'd like to see a line-up such as:
Foye Telfair
McCants Brewer Buckner
Jaric Gomes Green
Jefferson Smith Walker
Richard Doleac Madsen
Though I'm curious if others think Gomes might be more effective at the 4 than the 3? If so, what to do with Smith?
Thanks Britt,
I'm a first-time poster, and I don't have much to contribute other than the following because you consistently take the words out of my mouth and thoughts out of my head and put them far more eloquently to print (it's very difficult to write with such a great voice as you do when you are [I am] in a fit of rage after every Wolves game):
1) Your blog is the greatest thing to happen to Wolves fans.
2) If/when Foye comes back, if we don't start Foye/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/Richard, we will not only be historically terrible in terms of wins and losses, we will be historically moronic as well (oh wait, we already are....well then, more so I guess...). Clearly, Foye has to start at the point. I hope this needs no explanation (though Wittman will find a way not to start him). As posted, McCants has a truly amazing ceiling as we have seen in the last two games and in various instances throughout the season. The potential of a Foye-McCants-Jefferson three-headed monster, as you pointed out, has the potential to net 60+ ppg in a year or two. Brewer and Richard are defensive, winner glue guys that could potentially be the perfect compliments at their respective positions to aforementioned three-head-monster. Foye-McCants-Jefferson, though they hopefully develop a strong chemistry, need their shots to be successful. Brewer and Richard can be great contributors without the ball and have lock-down potential (hopefully, this is all obvious to those reading...how it's not to the coaching staff, I'm not sure). As the logical folks have pointed out, who cares if their current flaws cause us to lose games? We're a historically losing team. These kids need run to develop. They need run, so we know what the hell they are. How obvious is this when everyone on here and other boards and anyone logical Wolves fan I know is upset about this?
3) Not only does Wittman need to be canned for all of your previously listed examples of ineptitude, I have no faith that once Foye-McCants-Jefferson are finally together in the starting lineup (a dangerous assumption on my part), Wittman will put them in the type of offensive system that will allow them success. He needs to be fired because he WILL screw this up even if Foye, McCants and Jefferson are all destined to be all-stars. I've posted this on other boards before, but what kind of offense does Wittman think he has out on the court? Anybody with limited experience in high school varsity basketball could defend that offense without have to worry about being "tricked" in any way or caught snoozing. It's a joke.
Would there be anything better than running our 03-04 pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop based offense that we used with Cassell-KG-Spree with Foye-Jefferson-McCants? Sure, being that neither Foye nor Jefferson have near the mid-range games of Cassell and KG respectively, the offense would have to be based much more on the pick-and-roll than the pick-and-pop, but wow would that cause issues. Foye is so much more of a threat of penetrating inside for an and1 underneath than Sam and certainly Al is much more dangerous coming hard to the rim than KG that those two developing a pick-and-roll chemistry is a fantastic possibility for this franchise. And, what greater player to play the role of Spree than McCants? Attitude jokes/comparisons aside, McCants could just wait in the corner, and when the defense inevitably is forced to collapse on the tornado that is the Foye and Jefferson pick-and-roll, who is hanging out wide open for three? Mr. McCants. And, when the defense comes hard at McCants because they're tired of Rashad knocking down open 3's, he slashes to basket and draws the foul. He never really has to pass or create. All he has to do is what he wants to do--score the damn basketball. All the while, Brewer and Richard are on the weak-side wing and post, respectively, looking to clean glass and take out the trash--two things they're excellent at.
Does anyone here see Wittman doing anything like this? Does anyone here even foresee a backdoor cut by our team in the next 2 or 3 years if Wittless is still the coach? How are these guys considered basketball experts? AHHH!!!!!!!!!!
A better question probably is: How excited is everyone to watch Beasley play 12 minutes a game next year and then get traded because of "attitude issues?"
Good point. As Jim Pete noted McCants has been a foul/turnover machine in some of his stints. I guess the hope (and that is all we have at this point) would be that he wouldn't try to do so much if his minutes were steadier. That is, it would limit his always trying to make the spectacular play.
Also (I'll reply to my own entry) I don't know why we can't find a way to keep Craig's minutes up. Despite my handle, I am not a delusional Rhino backer. His flaws are apparent. But, it seems like a decent coach should be able to fit him into the game for 20+ minutes to take advantage of his low post scoring and rebounding. Perhaps we could try a big line-up, with Rhino at the 3 or just find a defensive scheme to make the Smith/Jefferson combo more effective. All I know is Craig Smith is one of our top 4-5 players, and we should be able to find a way to use him better.
I don't think the answer is trading him...what are we going to get? Craig Smith could be a very good role player, and we could probably re-sign him for a reasonable price. Yes, he's always going to be defensively challenged with his body. But he is also going to create match-up advantages offensively, he is a hard worker, smart player, and seems to possess leadership qualities.
I think they need to do whatever they can to package Smith and Ratliff for a serviceable young center. Smith is really their only decent compliment to a deal with Ratliff and outside of the $5 million Mark Blount trade exception (cough...call Phoenix...cough), it's all the Puppies have to offer.
I like the idea of trying a Smith/Ratliff/Walker pitch to the Bulls for Ben Wallace and Joakim Noah or Aaron Gray. The Bulls need to unload Big Ben's salary and they need a low post scorer off the bench. For those of you Big Al haters, I think the Bulls would give nearly as much for Big Al as we got from the Celtics for KG...Big Al and Walker to the Bulls for their 1st rounder, Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas and/or Joakim Noah; as much as I like Big Al, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.
You'll still probably get a lottery pick with the Bulls and that should land you a decent PG (DJ Augustin/Ty Lawson) or big man (Devon Hardin/Brook Lopez) after your top 4 pick...which you can then blow on a pure scorer a'la Beasley, Mayo, or Gordon. The more I think about it, I think I've just talked myself into thinking the Wolves should trade Big Al to the Bulls ;) I really don't think that's too bad of a deal for both squads.
Both of those trades don't work for the simple reason that they would never take on Ben Wallace's contract (over $45 million over the next three years), nor should they. Part of the reason they've made the trades they have is because they are trying to shed big, long-term contracts. Also, Chicago's not trading Ben Wallace when they are trying to win now.
Not that it matters (this team isn't trading Jefferson), but I don't get why people have such a low opinion of Jefferson. For a 22-year-old, he's doing well, and that's a vast understatement. This team needs more players with his level of ability and potential, not fewer. If this team is serious about being a championship contender, he's the type of player that needs to be built around, not traded.
The only trades that will probably be made this year would be ones where we either shed more payroll or come up with a player who would definitely be a future cornerstone. That doesn't mean there won't be deals, but they will probably be ones where veterans move to contenders who want to improve somewhere.
I think the team would be alright at C if they just stopped forcing the Smith-Jefferson tandem. A team can always find a big body to throw in there; if they don't get one in the draft, they can get one in FA. Remember, the center rotation during their best year was Ervin Johnson/Michael Olowokandi/Mark Madsen/Oliver Miller. In this league, teams overpay for big men way too much. We just need to play the ones we already have.
Wow, S&P,
I thought I was thinking out of the box when I started thinking about trading Smith. Trade Al Jefferson?
Hmmmmm...
Why the hell not? It makes too much sense really. I'd take Noah over Thomas for the Chemistry angle. You then have Richard, Brewer and Noah all together again.
Wallaces contract is bad, but who doesn't have a bad contract on the roster these days. His contract is for one more year than 'toines and we get veteran center who can play some defense. But the kicker is the draft pick. Chicago may want to win now, but they are not winning now. Another lottery pick to place next to their other pick they get this year (with luck the first pick of the draft) gives us another piece to build around. I like Jefferson, but I'd try my luck with a completely new start next year from the draft. Finish the year with Smith and Noah playing alongside Wallace, Foye and Brewer. Telfair, Gomes, Richards and McCants off the bench. Establish a defensive identity and a work ethic to go with an offensively challenged team. In the offseason you resign the players you think are still worth investing in and bring in the two new studs from the draft to shore up offese alongside the new defensive (smashmouth) identity.
Nice thinking S&P. I don't know if Chicago would go for it, but everything about it makes sense to me, even if I love what I have seen of Al Jefferson so far. If he can bring us Noah and another lottery pick, I'd take my chances on that.
Wallace actually has less years on his deal than Walker. Chicago has shortened their rotation to 7 or 8 guys and Wallace is sparingly used on the defensive end down the stretch. He's only averaging about 5 and 8 so production-wise they wouldn't take that big of a hit especially since they would keep either Gray or Noah as a back up center. They're losing nothing big with Thomas and they keep their core of Deng, Gordon, Heinrich, and Nocioni in tact. Also, I don't think you can underestimate how bad that Wallace contract is for them with Deng and Gordon coming up for contracts in the off-season. Ratliff's money allows them a bit of wiggle room to keep these guys around and they can still compete now with the talent they would receive in return. Big Ben is a shell of his former self and he's a bench player at this point in his career. Yeah, the money sucks but he comes off the books in 3 years when the Wolves and all their young talent would (hopefully) just start to come together. The big benefit for the Wolves would be that they could focus on a scorer with the 1st pick and then draft need (1 or 5) with the Bulls pick. There are a fair number of decent PGs and Cs in this year's draft and at least one of them will be around when the Bulls' pick comes up. I don't think the Wolves have to worry about Big Ben's contract as much as the Bulls do right now...especially with Deng and Gordon. I think they would jump at the opportunity to get rid of it, and for what they could receive in return, I think the Wolves would benefit in the long run....and let's face it, at 4-33, it's all about the long run right now.
If the Wolves are taking the approach of "and then something magical happens in the draft" (which apparently is part of the plan) then they have to maximize the number of opportunities in the upcoming drafts...especially with the track record of this front office.
Also, I can't say it enough: they need to approach Phoenix about getting that Atlanta 1st rounder for the Blount trade exception. Portland did it by taking on James Jones and they got the pick. If Taylor wants to spend his way out of this mess, and to balance a bit of the Wolves' bad karma, I think you give Phoenix the exception for the Atlanta pick and Marcus Banks. Buy out Banks' contract (it would hurt) and grab the pick...which would likely be in the high teens/low 20s. Another plus to grabbing all these picks is that you could hopefully package Marko and a mid-1st to get rid of Marko's salary. The Wolves don't have much to offer anyone and I don't think that anyone is off the table at this point.
Walker's last two years are a team option, so his contract is really up after next season. I just watched two Bulls games, and in both games, Wallace was in for most of the fourth and the all of overtime. They didn't do any offensive/defensive switches for him. His last five games, he's played 33, 47 (double OT), 36, 45 (OT), and 36 minutes. He's not getting phased out. Also, the Bulls are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East and 4 games out of the fourth spot. They could get there without making a deal (the teams ahead of them are Atlanta, Philly, Indiana, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland, and Washington); if they got Jefferson, they'd probably be in. Why would we do that deal if the pick is in the teens?
Also, after next season, the Wolves will have significant cap room. Why push that back a year? The reason they traded Davis for Walker/Doleac was because they could decline his option in two years, while Blount's contract had three years left.
I don't disagree that they'd be better defensively, but the main point is being missed: this team wanted Jefferson because he brings specific abilities, and he has not disappointed in those areas. McHale specifically traded Garnett to Boston so he could get Jefferson because he wants to play smashmouth basketball, and Jefferson's low-post game gives what he considers to be a significant piece in that. Bottom line, Jefferson is one of the top 15 forwards in the league (it could be argued that he's top 10), the team will not trade him for at least 2 years, and they would only do it then if they had a really compelling reason. They are trying to get maximum cap flexibility so that they can build a team with him as one of their cornerstones.
Honestly, the main reason I disagree with this is because the main benefit of getting a high draft pick is getting a potential all-star, and most teams need at least 3 of those guys to be competitive every year. After that, the team fills in with role players based on the team's style of play and who they can afford.
We already have a potential all-star in Jefferson. We'll have a chance to get another one this summer. None of the players they would get back has as high of potential as Jefferson, and a team can find role players anywhere. It would be like when Chicago traded Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler, then didn't win for about three more years. They eventually got back to being a good team, but wouldn't they have gotten there faster with Brand?
It's not just that the trade shouldn't happen, it won't. This is giving me a headache. I think I know why we never see Britt chiming in about potential personnel deals: because we're just fans who don't have any control over front-office deals and because, like he said, the people running the team (except Taylor) know more about basketball than we do. It's frustrating as a fan to see them lose, but I don't disagree that trading Garnett for Jefferson was the best and fastest way for us to be good in three years.
Tradetalk and draft talk should all be taken lightly. But, with the current state of the Wolves, there is not much more to talk about that holds your interest. Basically, we are all asking what or how this team can get better. After reaching 4-29, it is becoming painfully obvious that the team is not going anywhere through the development of the current roster. So, we are already at a point of speculating which players are worth keeping and which are not. Britt has not joined in the discussion of trade-talk and roster moves, but he is advocating for more playing time for McCants, precisely because McCants is an enigma with some tantalizing abilities and frustrating inconsistencies. There is only one way to determine if he is worth keeping around and that is by seeing more of him and giving him an opportunity to shed the enigma label.
It seems that other questions are largely answered, such as Big Al is a force at the power forward and overmatched at the center position. Craig Smith is only worth keeping as a backup to Jefferson. Telfair is a good point guard and can be trusted running the offense, but his lack of threat from 3 pt and outside shooting, in addition to his inconsistency at finishing on his drives, makes him a liability to the offense. Hes a likely career backup at best. Jaric is the biggest dissapointment at this time in his career for failing to take advantage of his opportunities and continuing to be inconsistent. We either move him or buy out the remainder of his contract during the offseason. Walker has some trade value and hes also worth keeping around as the veteran presence in the lockerroom. Green is not yet ready to play in the NBA and likely will never be. Gomes might be a player worth keeping but not at an very high price. He has some ability and might be worth developing, but there doesn't appear to be a great upside. Brewer has some of the same limitations as Telfair, but his impact on the game is much greater at his size. He is definitely a piece worth keeping and continuing to build around along with Jefferson. Foye needs to get healthy and will likely be the third piece to build around Jefferson and Brewer. Ratliff either comes off the books for us or we trade him so he can come off the books for someone else. Given the silence at Target Center, I think Taylor is counting on insurance money for Ratliffs contract this year to cut into the losses at the gate. So, he probably sticks around and co0mes off our books after this year.
I don't have understanding of the salary cap (nor do I care too), and my understanding of what we can or cannot do with roster moves based on contracts is limited to ESPN's Trade Machine. So, I appreciate discussions speculating on the different directions this Wolves team can go given the teams current situation. I've even recently embraced those discussions on the apparent limitations of Wittman's coaching abilities. It does seem hes lacking in something, and a different coach could probably get more out of this group of players.