Game #34, Home Game #17: Miami 91, Minnesota 101
Season record: 5-29
1. The Importance of Glue
Other players scored more points, grabbed more rebounds, doled out more assists, and generally exerted a higher-profile on tonight's rare Wolves victory than the two glue guys I consider to be most crucial to the win, Ryan Gomes and Marko Jaric.
For that matter, Gomes himself has had games, especially recently, where he's shown off more obviously than he did tonight. But this Miami game is what I had envisioned when I penciled in Gomes as the team's second-best player at the beginning of the season. It wasn't just that his versatility enabled coach Randy Wittman to get away with a daring lineup switch. He was also the calming agent on a squad dripping with flopsweat at crunchtime, the one who took the hands away from the Wolves throat when it looked as if the team was going to choke away what was once a 19-point lead to the second-worst team in the league.
We've all seen it before from this ballclub: the rote perimeter passes and faux-aggressive dribbling accomplishing nothing but wasting time. Then, tick-tick-tick, the spin-dribble in traffic, or the forced lean-in trying to draw the foul, or the shot taken almost deliberately off balance for no ostensible reason, or--at long last--the now-gallant chucking up of a prayer because the 24-second clock is expiring. These are the crunchtime moves of performers angling to hedge their choke against extenuating circumstances. It's a mentally frozen team psychologically preoccupied with not looking stupid or of being the goat, which of course dramatically increases its chances of looking stupid and being the goat. That's the way the Wolves played most of their half-court sets in the 4th quarter tonight. But Gomes was a prominent exception.
When I mentioned Gomes's ability to remain unruffled during an otherwise rocky crunchtime, coach Randy Wittman didn't entirely agree, inferring that Gomes, too, turned down a couple of easy shots he should have taken--and given that Wittman was understandably both ebullient and relieved by the win, and in a mood to slather credit on his troops, he might be right. But the coach then identified two of the three plays that had me pinning gold stars on #8, and correctly called them "the big shots" of the game.
First the one Wittman didn't cite: With nine minutes to play and the Wolves lead dropped to 8, Gomes faked a jumper, dribbled to his left and nailed a 17-footer. For most of the season Gomes has been a catch and shoot guy, and for him to vary the script and still go up easily and in rhythm was body language telling everyone he wasn't feeling any pressure. Fifteen seconds later, Jaric committed a foul and the Wolves were in the penalty with 8:51 to play, against a player, Dwyane Wade, who had 16 fourth quarter FTs against them in Miami. The heat, if not the Heat, was on.
But with 8:02 remaining and the Wolves up 9, Jaric found Gomes in the corner for a trey and again he didn't hesitate, went up smoothly, and buried it. At a time when the Wolves' offense was clearly floundering, this was a big basket; and a signal they wouldn't fade under the expected barrage of free throws Miami was going to be shooting. Then, with 2:36 to play, Miami cut the lead to 6--closer than they'd been since midway through the first period. The squads traded misses until, with about 90 seconds to go, Gomes got the ball and drove down the left lane, suddenly dumping it off to Jefferson for a lay-up that put the Wolves up by more than two possessions with barely over a minute to play. Huge basket.
The preceding paragraphs are also an abject lesson in why you don't go chapter and verse about glue guys. Describing subtle contributions, or steady play in relatively dramatic moments--and watching the Wolves tighten up as their lead eroded on their most winnable game of the month was, unfortunately, dramatic--still can't do them justice.
Anyway, Gomes was also crucial to Wittman's decision to shake up his lineup by replacing Craig Smith with Rashad McCants. That put Gomes at the power forward slot, opposite not Udonis Haslem, who guarded Al Jefferson much of the time, but Heat center Mark Blount. Now all Wolves fans know that Blount is a shrinking violet in the paint. But it's still notable that the 6-7 Gomes was trusted with the assignment of containing Blount, which he did mostly by fronting him, but occasionally playing behind him on the low block. Gomes also had to play all the rotations on zones from the power forward slot. The bottom line is that Gomes outrebounded Blount 6-4 (surprise, surprise, eh?) and also grabbed three steals and dished for 3 assists against just one turnover while getting 13 points--stats better than Blount's across the board.
I'll be more succinct about Marko's glue heroics. First and foremost, he was the primary defender on Wade, forcing him to make a bevy of acrobatic layups in order to get his 25 points. More importantly, he stayed in front of Wade well enough to prompt six turnovers from the Miami superstar, including four in the fourth quarter, and to draw a charging call on Wade for his 5th foul, further limiting Wade's aggression (kudos to gutsy ref Dan Crawford--the best in the game--for making the right call there). He also hit 6-9 FGs (5-6 from inside the three point line), and dished as well as scored off of penetration, finishing with an 8/2 assist-to-turnover ratio. It was a game tailor-made for the "good Marko"--chaotic, sloppy, and prone to spurts of opportunism.
2. Inside-Outside
Having argued in my last trey for less Jefferson-Smith on the front line and more burn for McCants, I was pleasantly surprised by the rejiggered lineup. In retrospect, I don't think it was the difference in the outcome of this game--during his brief stint, Smith murdered Blount in the low block by flashing down into the paint and using Blount's well known distaste for flesh and flesh contact, getting 7 points and 6 rebounds (and, alas, 5 fouls, an ongoing Rhino vexation) in just 13:43. But having McCants around for the opening tap is really the only way right now to prevent Wolves opponents from packing the paint against Jefferson, especially when Shaddy erupts, as he did tonight, for 18 first half points on just ten shots (8-10 FG, 1-1 3ptFG, 2-2 FT). What Wittman appropriately demands, and what McCants has done recently, is to vary his attack, from full-court dashes in transition to explosive penetration in the half court to quick midrange jumpers and, finally, three-pointers.
When McCants is on his game, there is more room and less pressure for Jefferson to score. Hell, there is more space for everyone to score--that's why an inside-outside scoring tandem is fundamental to even mediocre offenses. That the Wolves have been trying to get by exclusively pounding the ball into Jefferson--or relying on the likes of Telfair, Jaric, Brewer, etc. to score from outside--is a rather large reason why they've been so dreadful on offense the past month. Toss Randy Foye into the mix, and you've got three players capable of getting bushels of points in the paint--with about two dozen cavaets--involving health, maturity, pecking orders, etc.-- that we won't go into right now.
Besides, even this win comes with a sobering reality check. After combining for 30 points on 70% shooting (14-20 FG) en route to a 59-point first half, the Jeff-Shaddy combo played like jokers and exerted no leadership or command against an opponent begging to be put out of its misery in the second half. The most jaw-dropping stat in last night's box score is zero turnovers for Jefferson. That's only because all the times he muffed well-timed and -delivered entry passes resulted in him putting up a more difficult shot instead of an easy make, or being forced to pass it back out. His only basket in seven third quarter attempts was a tip-in 15 seconds after intermission, and in the fourth quarter one of his two baskets was the crunchtime dish from Gomes, who did all the heavy lifting. At 3-10 FG, Big Al came up small in quarters three and four.
McCants was as bad in the fourth period as Jefferson was in the third, going 2-10 FG after nailing 8-10 in the first half and 2-4 in the third quarter. Wittman inferred that some of that might have been because Shaddy was willing to step up and let it fly while his teammates were fearfully spurning better shots. But even granting the point, McCants seems better able to bang home those treys or finish those serpentine journeys to the hoop when he team is up or down by 20 points, or in the first half, rather than when the score is close and the game is late.
Nevertheless, balance out the bad and the good and you still have a player who went off for 27 points--pretty much his average the past two games as well--on 12-24 FG. Shaddy wrested a missed Jefferson free throw from Udonis Haslem (no mean feat) and laid the ball in. He snuck in for another offensive rebound and putback midway through the second quarter. He hit a respectable two out of five treys but also muscled his way through traffic for at least two left-handed layups. Oh and there were also the 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Overall a fabulous game, but, McCants being McCants there was of course some bad with the good, just as his "bad" games frequently contain silver linings.
3. Hit and Run Observations
Watching Ricky Davis pile up the turnovers--five, in 25:24--take breaks on defense, commit a dumb foul or two, and wring about three percent of the potential from his talent produced some Pretty Ricky flashbacks that actually put McCants, who schooled him most of the game, in a much more favorable light. Then there was Blount and his pathetic defense, aversion to contact, 4 boards in 35:37, and dutiful going through the motions. About the only consolation for Heat fans is that Antoine Walker had one of his worst games of the season. That said, 'Toine's been a stand-up teammate under trying circumstances, Minnesota bagged a first-round pick, and the Wolves don't have the toxic twins poisoning their locker room.
Minnesota would have won by 25 or 30 tonight if Sebastian Telfair could shoot. Let the record show that Bassy finished 3-10 FG and turned down about three times as many wide open looks throughout the course of the game. Nine assists versus three turnovers is nice, but the more frequently defenses can disdain his jumper, the less and less passing alleys and angles he'll have against dropping-off defenders.
Randy Wittman pointedly mentioned a very rigorous practice the team had yesterday in the context of tonight's uptempo win. If the Wolves beat one of their next eight opponents--Phoenix and Golden State twice apiece, plus Houston, Denver, Boston and San Antonio--maybe I'll buy that taskmaster approach. Meanwhile, it was just good to be able to see him smile at that postgame podium for a change. He opened his remarks by saying, "Well, we got off the schneid finally." Yes, yes you did coach. Here's hoping another schneid isn't headed your way.
As usual, well done, Britt. McCants has really looked good lately. Maybe Wittman finally got through to him that he can still be an explosive, slashing type scorer within the flow of the offense. It's not about missed shots, it's about good shots.
With Shaddy's emergence, I don't necessarily think the Wolves need to go through Al on every possession as people have been suggesting all season. Last night they went away from feeding the post as the staple and dealt with the fact that the other guys will still miss shots. The result: better team basketball.
On the other hand, against a superior rebounding team, the missed shots will be more costly and there will be more of a need to get the ball to Big Al.
It all comes down to maturity and the young team recognizing that, each night, they will have different challenges and opportunities. And that they will have to adjust throughout the game. Last night, it was the fact that they could out rebound the Heat, even with a small front line, which meant they could afford to miss shots and establish other scorers from the outset.
Bassy: If he took more shots, people today would be lamenting about how he's "looking for his own offense" or that he's "a shoot-first PG who can't shoot". I guess until he starts making shots, he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. For the first time in his career he's been given the opportunity to play through shooting slumps. He's shown over the course of his career that he can hit the open j, but it's about maintaining that confidence so he can relax more as he's shooting.
He's got the ability. I've noticed that as of late a lot of his jumpers, especially mid-range shots have been short, especially since he stopped wearing that black shoulder patch. Maybe there is a nagging injury. In any event it was great to see him hit a nice percentage of treys. Getting that shooting percentage back above .415 would re-open the rest of his game.
Nevertheless, it looked like he had the spring back in his step last night. Even when he passed up his own shot, I thought he usually found equally good shots for hotter-shooting teammates, like Marko, Shaddy and even Brewer. He played a really good floor game--applied great pressure, controlled the tempo, hit some long-range jumpers, took care of the ball and found open shooters all night.
If a PG is going to take the lions share of the blame when the team loses, he deserves SOME credit when it plays its best offensive game of the season
Anonymous (and please pick an identity next time)--
Telfair got loads of credit when the team played its best offensive game of the season--scoring 131 against Indiana on December 21. Look it up, I gushed over Bassy. Since then he's does very little to justify being anything more than a backup in this league, which is still a higher status than he had when the season started.
Otherwise, I agree about the rebounding. The Wolves always preach about five guys going to the boards--with about the same credibility as claiming they want to run in transition--but last night was a rare evening when it actually happened.
About that running.
I've been wondering. Is that running really a part of our future indentity? We drafted Brewer, telfair is also that kind of player. Foye and Shaddy also can run but then we got AJ, our building block, our future all star .. who is low post half-court player. I also don't really know if others like Gomes are real runners for their position.
I kinda got the feeling they had a plan before the KG deal and then suddenly got some pieces that didn't fit that strategy, and now they got a bit of different strategies .. and that's why I think we don't have a real established identity yet... That's what I also think is what's been missing the last years. It's not a enough to have talent, you gotta have a strategy...
Though I might be wrong, again, I gotta help myself with what I find on the internet, not a lot of televised games here and it's kinda hard to watch live internet games 2AM in the morning when you have to work the next day...
Wim, check out http://www.twolvesrubenation.com/, he has been posting archives of the games there. You will be a bit late, but you can watch them when you want. He hasn't posted any games since 12/31, so I hope he keeps it up.
Thank you SO much!
My bad. I'm anonymous, of course. I just forgot to use my handle. I very much enjoyed your post after the Indiana game. I'm just wondering how a string of bad games has caused so many people to get off the Bassy bandwagon. But I think the big improvement in his game, which has been the case all season, has been his ability to run an offense like a true PG.
The consistent jumper may or may not come and I agree that the inability to make a higher percentage of his shots is a fundamental flaw that will be the difference between him ultimately being a 35 MPG player and a 15 to 20 MPG player. I maintain that it's good that he was deferring and passing on some open looks against the Heat. He needs to regain confidence in his shot little by little, like McCants did. A 3 for 7 night from behind the arc with 9 assists in a win is something to build from.
But all in all, adding size and muscle in the frontcourt is the Wolves biggest need. I don't think they need another 20-nothing guard. Last night, the Phoenix game and the second Hornets game have shown me how dynamic the current arsenal of guards can be when the team is rebounding and breaking into transition. They just need a banger who can dominate the painted area. Either see what can be done via a trade or draft Roy Hibbert.
Big Al learning to pass or to come out and set a decent screen would help immensely as well. The plodding, get the ball to the post at all costs approach is a huge reason why the T-Wolves only have five wins. Once it goes in, it doesn't come out, and it's very easy as a guard to become complacent in that type of offense.
This may be over-analyzing a bit, but Telfair's shot isn't fundamentally sound to begin with. His elbow flies out and he doesn't get his wrist set properly, since he has so much elbow bend. Compare Telfair's jumper to Nash's and my point is pretty clear. It's tough to be a consistent shooter with basic form problems. Maybe some time spent with Fred Hoiberg would help.
I realize that shooters take a variety of forms, but Bassy's doing something that you don't see from the top shooters, and it's reflected in his percentages.
With his quickness and handles, Telfair does not need to be a great three point shooter, but he needs to hit the 20-footer down with regularity. Tony Parker and Mike Bibby have been very effective PG's with range that doesn't quite extend out to the three point line.
Couple of thoughts and a couple of questions:
Agree on all your thoughts, Britt. A win is a win, even if it comes against a team that was a dead ringer for the Wolves team that showed up against the Mavs on Sunday. Anytime you have to play Blount and Davis big minutes (or any minutes, in Blount's case) you're in big trouble, as we in Minnesota already know.
I liked that we got McCants, Jefferson and Gomes a lot of minutes, and a lot of minutes on the floor together, and going small was smart. However, it seemed to me that part of the problem in the 4th quarter was that, particularly when they had Walker in there instead of Smith, they did not rebound well on the defensive end (which isn't surprising). The Wolves got 24 DRB and the heat got 9 ORB, and a few of the wolves' DRB came off of missed FTs, whcih aren't exactly difficult rebounds to get. It seemed to me they gave up a lot of offensive boards on the 4th quarter. Given that Riley went with several of those big men (who were those guys?) who didn't do much other than pick for Wade, roll to the basket and hit the glass, why not go to Richard or Madsen to counter? Walker wasn't doing much, and since the Heat were playing without a true PG (Wade, Jackson and Cook for most of Q4 -- he'd obviously seen enough of Ricky), you could have subbed Telfair. Particularly b/c the Heat played a zone, making Telfair's shooting a distinct offensive liability.
Next question: what's the lineup for the Houston game? You've got to activate Doleac and start either him or Richard against Yao, right? Who do you sit?
Finally, I was out to dinner after the game and Marko and his girlfriend walked in. That is one really lucky man (The fact that someone (anyone) from Brazil would come to Minneapolis to watch the Wolves-Heat game in mid-January says something, I suppose). So my final question: is there a correlation between when she shows up and how he plays? Or does she come to all the games? That would be important for Wittman to know I think, particularly if Foye is back in a couple of weeks.
OK... who's got a link to a picture of Marko's girlfriend? I need to see what all the fuss is about.
Wow Miami is bad. Is Chris Quinn the worst starting PG of all time? Joel Anthony? Earl Barron? That team is sad. So much for getting their pick next year.
I'll take the win though, and it is nice to see McCants respond to the start. It's looking like he's a keeper. He is restricted next year, correct? If we assume his performance holds or even improves (15pp/night currently) what kind of money are we talking?
Andy B,
Jaric's girlfriend's picture:
http://f.freeblog.hu/a/g/i/agitator/files/AdrianaLima2.jpg
there are many, many pictures of here that you can see by doing an Google image search.
McHale has made plenty of bad decisions, but last night was first-hand evidence of how brilliant the most recent Ricky Davis trade was for the Wolves' future. Miami is going nowhere, and we might end up with a lottery pick for Davis and Blount--two players who have a noticeably negative impact on the game. (I think the pick is completely unprotected in 3 years?). Anyway, you won't read about it in the newspapers, but McHale made one great move in picking up a 1st rounder for Davis and Blount.
I can hear Commons answer to a soundbite from the postgame press conference already.
"We're happy for ya."
"IT THE MIAMI HEAT!"
"Ricky Davis and Mark Blount were in the Starting Lineup?"
Its nice to get a win and some people might think that someone like me would be taking something positive away from it.Like, "get a couple more wins on the home stretch and keep improving and soon we'll find ourselves with 25 wins." No, its the Miami heat with Ricky Davis and Mark Blount in the starting lineup. Britt already pointed out how Ryan Gomes outrebounded him. I'm afraid this team is still on the Shneid and in danger of having the worst record of all time.
I would be happy to congratulate Wittman on his shortened rotation and for getting McCants into the starting lineup. He also seems to have realized that Smith and Jefferson might not be a potent combination. Except that we know last night they actually would have been. McCants, Telfair, Jaric, Jefferson and Gomes does not exactly inspire confidence in me as a wolves fan. This lineup will get killed against a good or even average NBA team. Then who will Wittman go with. Again, what will be the plan.
The best plan would be substituting Richards for one of the guards. Mccants still needs burn and if you take Jaric out, his confidence will suffer and hes worthless off the bench in limited minutes. So, Richards should get the majority of minutes for Telfair. But, then there is also the question of how to get minutes for Brewer and Telfair, now on the bench and Wittman will still be anxious to use Smith or Walker instead of Richards.
If they lose last night, obviously that is not good, but I would still have rather seen them win with a commitment to a lineup they can use night in and night out.
I know Britt said he didn't want to get into it right now, but he mentioned those words I personally dread - "pecking order" again. I really wish we had that problem. But, once Foye comes back, if he has to worry about getting Al Jefferson touches, rather than letting the game come to him and passing in the flow of the offense, then the Wolves are in desparate need of a new coach and philosophy. As Britt notes, when McCants is on then that opens up the game for everyone. What matters first is that defenses respect the man with the ball. When Bassy has the ball and everyone knows he won't shoot the open shot and is instead looking to find a passing angle into Big Al, it helps nobody. Foye needs to look for his shot first and McCants, too. Make the defense take that away and then pass it into Big Al. I know it can sometimes become a problem when you have certain players on your team, say Kobe and Shaq in their prime, but if only we had such a problem. I say, pecking order be damned, get some players who can shoot the ball and a defense that can stop the other team from doing the same. Sometimes its as simple as that, especially when you have a team as bad as the Wolves.
Random thoughts...
1) I'm a pretty big McCants supporter, so I've been happy to see him playing well. I think he, more than anyone else on the team, has been hurt by the KG trade and the Foye injury. KG because he was the only player around that I believe McCants would completely defer to, which may have retarded his mental growth curve as a player. And Foye because...I don't know, there's just something electric about the two of them on the court at the same time. Even with McCants hobbling back into shape last winter and Foye consciously working on other parts of his game last summer in Vegas, the two of them together just seem to bring out the best in one another. They have a lot of physical similarities and, if it works, their playing styles seem to mesh well on both offense and defense. I'm really looking forward to FINALLY seeing them on the court together in the relatively near future.
2) The Gomes at PF next to Jefferson experiment last night was very similar to the Smith at PF next to Jefferson experiment in the win against the Suns...it can work against very specific teams with poor inside presence, but should not be a nightly phenomenon. I think that McCants needs to be starting, and obviously Big Al is going to start. That means that out of Smith, Gomes, and Brewer there is only space for one of them to start at small forward without moving Jefferson to center. Smith isn't a SF at all so he's out of the running if AJ's not at the 5, Gomes is a nice glue guy and probably would lead to the most team success this season, but if I were in charge I'd go ahead and leave Brewer out there and let him keep getting experience. I'm with those that believe that Richard should start at C, and when he gets back Foye should start at PG. Foye/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/Richard would be my default starting 5 for the rest of this season.
3) I made an argument on a message board yesterday that the James (or Hudson)/Davis/Hassell/Blount supporting crew may have been worse than the supporting crew around Jefferson this season just because the shocking, almost willfully negative impact of the Toxic Twins (great nickname, by the way) as well as James (after he realized he wasn't going to be featured) and Hudson (every day since July 2003) was so large that it likely would overshadow the inexperience and dumb mistakes of the current Young Wolves that at least are willing to try hard and seemingly would follow a leader. Yesterday's game, IMO, lent a lot of credence to my argument.
A few things:
1- Bassy was 3-10 last night with a 3-7 mark from the line. I don't know if this was just a Heat-specific approach, but he seemed rather content to stay anchored out near the line. Was this an attempt to shore up transition d? Was it an attempt to improve perimeter spacing with McCants? Was it the result of being told by the coach to stop hamming it up in front of his mom? Whatever it was, if Bassy can go 3-7 from 3, I'll take it. An eFG of 45% from Bassy is a keeper on any night.
2- While I like the idea of cutting things down to a reasonable 8 to 9 man rotation, where the hell is Chris Richard? He, McCants, and Gomes are the only Wolves with a positive Roland Rating (on/off court ranking) and Richard's is largely due to his defensive on/off court numbers in limited time. His on court defensive pts per 100 possessions is 102.5. It shoots up to 114.3 when he's off the court. Granted, the sample size is small but it shows that he is effective at doing something the Wolves, as a whole, aren't all that great at. I simply don't understand why he isn't getting the playing time...even against mismatched lineups like the Heat. Because of the salary cap, they may have to rely on this guy as a cheap option after they have to let either (or both) Gomes or Smith go. I don't think they can afford to keep them both and Richard has more flexibility on the defensive end than does Smith. Again: Smith is going to be a tough off-season decision and if the Wolves don't resign Bassy, it tips their hand as to what their 1st round pick is going to be.
3- Over the last 10 games Corey Brewer has averaged 25 minutes, 44% shooting, 2.6 boards, 1.7 assists, and nearly 6 PPG. The decline in rebounding numbers are disappointing but he has improved his shot selection enough to improve his FG%. I'd like to say that his confidence and jumper have improved, but I'm pretty sure it's mostly shot selection that has caused the up-tick. He's still carrying an eFG of 34.7%, which is mind-boggling low (21.4% from behind the line) and overall he's a surprisingly ineffective player (6.56 PER; not even 1/2 the level of an effective starter), but hopefully he continues to adapt to his new bench role and is able to give a spark to the team at 20-25 mpg, 42-45FG%, 3-5 RPG, 1-3 APG, 1 SPG, and 4-8 PPG. As long as he keeps the turnovers down and that FG% above 40, from this point on, it should be considered a success....especially after pushing his shooting numbers as low as they were in late December.
4- While I don't want to take away from a nice victory, it should be noted that the Heat are a fantastically terrible team and that they are built even less for the long-run than the Wolves...which is incredible considering they have Wade on the squad. It's also a very good sign for the Wolves, who happen to hold a future 1st round pick from a increasingly terrible team. There are several things to note about the Heat:
a- Outside of Wade and Shaq, they get to the line about as well as the Wolves.
b- The Heat are a stunningly bad rebounding team; worse in the league at 38.8 rpg. This number is only going to get worse as Shaq continues to deteriorate and they are forced to focus more on the outside games of Luke Jackson and Marc Blount.
c- Outside of the bad shooting and lack of free-throws, the Heat only attempt an average of 76.8 shots/game. This wouldn't be such a bad thing if they kept their opponents in check, but they allow 79.3 attempts at 45.9% to opponents while shooting a negligibly better 46.2% as a team themselves.
d- The FTA disparity isn't the only place the Heat have a terrible opponent differential; they are nearly across-the-board-bad. From 3 pointers to rebounding to assists to you name it, the Heat can't get anything right and even when they do scrape by an opponent's percentage, it is by 0.3 and 0.4.
e- The Heat have just as many above average PER performers as do the Wolves. Wade and Jefferson come in at the low-20s; Smith and Shaq come in a little above 15, and the rest of both squads are mired in various states of ineffectiveness. Man to man, it's pretty hard to pick which lineup a general manager would want to move forward with: Wolves or Heat? Yeah, Wade is nice but you also have O'Neal ($20 mil for 2 more years), Blount ($7 mil for 2 more years), Ricky Davis (off the books), Zo (career over), Haslem ($6 mil for 2 more years), Smush Parker, Daequan Cook, Luke Jackson, Earl Barron, and Penny Hardaway. While the Wolves have a few nice young developing players, the Heat is a rapidly dying team. Even if they get a top 5 pick in the draft, they won't have any money to play around in free agency and a single rookie isn't going to help them enough to get back to .500. Wade is all alone in a situation worse than what Bryant was in a few years back. It's almost the same situation KG was in last year: a terrible team with only 1 younger promising player and a looming 1st round pick that has been promised away....which, for once, is good news for us Wolves fans.
I wouldn't be so quick to count the Heat out the next several years. Riley may have gotten a bad deal in the Davis trade, but with a high lottery pick and Wade, plus Cook, Udonis, ect. I'd bet the Heat will be back in the playoffs long before the Wolves are. With a young superstar like Wade and a true basketball mind in Riley, the Heat will be fine. Who knows, maybe they can peddle Shaq to a team like Dallas that wants to sell out and win a title this year.
S&P--
Dogged research and sharp analysis--I'm flattered you take the time to stop by. And for folks who don't know, you can find his stuff at canishoopus.com.
But I do want to talk about #1 and #3. I know you like Telfair, but spinning the eFG% because he hit some wide open treys is too much of a stretch. The Heat started someone named Chris Quinn at the point, and subbed in a significantly hobbled Jason Williams. And even then, they blatantly ignored Telfair unless he sought to penetrate. There were *at least* eight to ten times when the ball movement rhythm had swung it to Telfair wide open on the perimeter, only to have him elongate the play with another pass. This discourages "good" ball movement because Bassy's overpassing makes it less likely that teammates will feed it to him in rhythm. Extending plays isn't quite as bad as short-circuiting ball movement, but not only doesn't it yield the best shot, it mentally taxes teammates' patience and often leads to short-circuits on future sets. I got the distinct impression that Telfair lacked confidence in his shot--and the numbers indicate that he should. And his play in recent weeks indicates to me that a good defensive team dedicated to the task can cut off the Wolves' half-court game at its head by taking advantage of Bassy's shooting woes and sealing off his passing and driving lanes. Put simply, he is still much more effectively with Jaric beside him in the backcourt.
You correctly note that Brewer has improved his shot selection, and, unlike Telfair, seems to go up with confidence in any case. But have you also noticed that the rook's defense has slipped a little bit in recent weeks? Some of it may be the transition back to the 2, some of it hyperactivity (his jitterbugging in the half court must drive his teammates crazy figuring out when they have to rotate) and some of it that proverbial rookie wall he's hitting. In any case, he needs to get stronger and improve his shot. When I'm kvetching about too much energy, the intangibles are obviously in place.
Mr. Robson:
Thanks for the shout-out. I really appreciate it. I do have a bit of the rose-colored glasses with Bassy but I like to think of anything that the young man does as a complete bonus, as he was viewed as a screwed-up gun-toting left-over in the KG trade. The front-office was betting on a Marko/Foye solution at the point and this kid came along and bailed them out with big minutes and surprisingly effective play (outside of the shooting, of course). He's only 22 years old and he's still 2 points above last year's FG% average. At basketball reference.com, his age rankings at 19, 20, and 21 compare favorably to Dajuan Wagner, Mike Bibby, and Terrel Brandon. This isn't to say that he'll turn out as well as the latter 2 (and as well as Wagner would have had he not had the medical issues), but that he's still a young player with a lot of promise who works hard in the off-season and who aims to please the fans and coaches. That being said, you're 100% right about opposing defenses and Bassy's bad shooting. During the few moments of football I did happen to get sucked into this year, I heard the phrase "9 men in the box" used ad nauseum with Adrian Peterson and opposing defenses. The same sort of thing applies to Bassy. I've seen other teams drop all 5 defenders below the free throw line when Bassy has the ball at the top of the key. That absolutely kills any sort of spacing and it really reduces the angles with which to make good entry passes to Big Al on the post...to say nothing of spaces to drive to the rim with. However, if Bassy can at least show other teams that he can make the wide-open 3, he can be effective if Marko continues to drive and kick the ball out beyond the line. I don't know how often you can get away with a 3 guard lineup with Shaddy, Bassy, and Marko, but if they continue to run that out there, Bassy is going to see some open looks and I'll take the 45% eFG any day of the week in that situation.
I have noticed Brewer's d and it's been almost as disappointing (to me) as his rebounding decline. I like to think of Brewer as a luxury that will (hopefully) pay off when this team is good again (fingers crossed). Brewer is one of those players that if he has better players around him, he will be the MVP of the team...if that makes any sense. He was the Final Four MVP because the quality of his teammates allowed him to play in "open space" (another garbage term I heard during an NFL game) and do the cliched little things. I think a cross between Bruce Bowen and Manu is his high end potential if and when he gets a decent surrounding group of players.
I do have a question for you if you have the time. The Blazers traded a trade exception to the Suns for James Jones and a 1st round pick. We over at Canis Hoopus know that the Wolves have a $5 million trade exception from the Blount trade but we are a little iffy on how it can be used, when it expires, if the front office has any plans for it, and so on and so forth. Do you know anything about the exception? The Suns are going to be sitting in the high teens/low 20s with Atlanta's pick and you've mentioned before that they don't like to hit the luxury number. Do you know what the Wolves are planning to do with the exception? Are they going to try a sign and trade? Trade it outright? Let it expire? We can't find out anything else about it.
The best we can figure it out (and we may be wrong because this stuff is ridiculously complicated) is that Minnesota essentially made the following trades (within a trade) to Miami:
1- Ricky Davis for Antoine Walker (6.8 to 8.5)
2- $3.1 million trade exception for Doleac (3.1 was from the KG trade...doleac is 3.1)
3- Mark Blount for Wayne Simien and the trade exception.
Simien's salary plus the trade exception have to be within 125% + 100,000 of Blount's salary, which is 6.7 million. Simien comes in around 900,000. That means Simien at 125% + 100k comes out to around 1.2 million. The trade exemption would then be in the neighborhood of 5 1/2 million. We can't think of any other way for that trade to work.
For all the crap the front office gets, this was an outstanding trade if there is a trade exception and they can use it effectively. If they can do that, they will literally be making something out of nothing. Think about it: if the Heat continue to trend downward, you could be talking about a lottery pick and $5 million against a free agent/draft pick sign and trade for Ricky frickin' Davis and Mark Blount. Yes please.
If I'm not mistaken, trade exceptions last a year from the time of the trade. So if you mean $5M from the trade that brought Blount to Minny then it has expired, but if a $5M exception was generated by the trade that sent Blount to Miami then it would be active until October of '08.
That's what we're hoping. The best we can tell, that is what the Wolves have.
According to Trade Machine on ESPN, the Wolves have these trade exceptions:
Mark Blount $5,156,144
Trenton Hassell $599,254
Justin Reed $650,000
S&P,
This is where you lose me. My only hope is that McHale and the rest of the front office is not a lost as I am (in that case, my jest from a few days ago that you should be GM is no longer a jest and Taylor should immediately hire you as a consultant. But, per usual, it is probably only me so confused). What would a team do with a trade exception? What did the Suns get from trading James Jones and a 1rst rounder to Portland for a trade exception? I don't get it. How do you use a trade exception?
Andy B:
You can read the salary cap FAQ here:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
I don't claim to know all the ins and outs of the salary cap but trade exceptions can be boiled down to this: they allow teams to trade above the salary cap. There are also 2 kinds of trade exceptions: simultaneous and non-simultaneous. The Heat-Wolves trade was simultaneous.
Portland got James Jones by trading Zach Randolph to the Knicks for, among other things, a 3 million dollar trade exception on Fred Jones. They turned around and traded the 3 million dollar exception to Phoenix for Jones (2.9 million/year) and a 1st round pick (no monetary value in the trade, but rookies have slotted salaries and Phoenix wanted nothing to do with another 2 years of guaranteed 1st round money).
Since both the Wolves and Heat are above the salary cap (roughly $55 mil), and since the Wolves were giving away more salary than they were receiving, the Wolves received a trade exception worth the difference between 125% of the total contract value of the player received +100,000 (Wayne Simean) and the salary of the player traded (Blount). This exemption can be used to add salary less than the amount of the exception.
There are two ways to use this exception:
1- Bundle it in a sign and trade for an upcoming free agent. I personally think this is a pipe dream given the Wolves' current state of affairs.
2- Trade it to a contending team who has to get rid of a dead weight bad contract and who would like to sign a mid level free agent in the off season (or lower cap space).
Option 2 is pretty realistic and I think the Wolves would be abso-f'ing-lutely stupid not to use this exception to take on a bad $3-5 million contract for 2 years in exchange for a mid to late 1st round pick. Look around at teams that are currently in the playoff mix with dead weight on the bench. Here's a few that I came up with:
Phoenix- Marcus Banks (@$4 mil/year for 3 more years)
Denver- Steven Hunter (@3 mil/year for 2 more years)
Utah- Ronnie rice, Jason Hart, or Jarron Collins (all between 1-2 mil for 1 more year)
Anyway, you get the picture; playoff teams with bad contracts or players who don't see the court and 1-2 years left on their deal are the goal. Ideally, you focus on teams that are on the edge of the playoffs. I really like the idea of trading with Phoenix for Marcus Banks because they have the Atlanta pick and as much as I like Josh Smith, I'm hoping for a collapse. New Jersey is almost the perfect target. Jason Collins is just out of reach with his salary. Cleveland is another one...Damon Jones has 4.5 on the books for next year and the Cavs are WAY the hell above the cap.
Whoever it is, mid to late 1st rounders are valuable. Take a look at Portland and then think about the foreign players they have been drafting with the late 1st rounders, 2nd rounders and trades. If you don't like what you can get from the college folks, take an international player and then watch him develop overseas. The Blazers got Rudy Fernandez with the Suns' pick and they picked up Petteri Koponen with another. The point here is that young rebuilding teams maximize their potential in the draft and in order to do that, you have to use things like trade exceptions.
See here for info on trade exceptions: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#69
Four of the biggest points:
- TEs cannot be combined
- TEs cannot be used to sign free agents
- TEs can be used to acquire up to 100% + $100k in return
- TEs expire 1 year after being created.
Info is updated at http://www.canishoopus.com/contract-information
I think the best use is exactly what's been discussed: take some salary off of the hands of a tax-strapped team and get a pick for our troubles.
The deal where Seattle got Kurt Thomas AND 2 1st rounders for a TE was absolute robbery.
The only thing that worries me about the Wolves picking Euros is that I'm not terribly confident in our scouting (see Mavrokefalidis, Loukas) but SnP's spot on about Portland and their stockpiling strategy.
Thanks again S&P,
You are a great NBA mind, no doubt. I am still ia little hazy on the details and will leave it to the accountant types to figure that out, but I get the general idea now. The Wolves can trade the exception for another player to get their salary cap up to the level it was previous to a trade, in this case the Miami trade. The only reason another team would want to do this is to dump a player with a salary. So, playoff teams that might not want a first round pick with a player not getting much playing time are the likely targets. I see the means and the reasons for getting it done. But, I wonder if Taylor would really want to take on more salary. Or does he have to pay the salary anyway to Miami for the exception? And what about the remaining years on the contract or the player we mi8ght require like banks? Does this hamper the Wolves in the future? On second thought, don't tell me. I don't want to be anymore confused than I already am. I just hope there is somebody at Target center who is looking at these options. I'd love another draft pick next year.
Merci.
I agree with you about wishing we had another 1st rounder in the draft. I think there are solid options at the 1 and 5 for a mid 1st round pick.
I'm working on a post over at Canis but here's how we have the 1s broken down:
Derrick Rose
DJ Augustin
Darren Collison
OJ Mayo
Ty Lawson
Jerryd Bayless
Kyle Weaver
...and the 5's:
DeAndre Jordan
Roy Hibbert
Devon Hardin
Hasheem Thabeet
Brook Lopez
Kosta Koufos
Trent Plaisted
Andrew Ogilvy
If you add in the swingmen and the 4s, you can be assured that one of these guys will be available in the teens. Granted, one or two of these guys will probably be available with the 1st pick in the 2nd round, but it would be nice to be able to grab one of the top rated guys with the 1st pick and then get a value pick mid-round. My ideal outcome would be to get Jordan with the top pick and then to have Augustin land in their lap in the mid round.
Here's another debate to have with the draft: do you draft for need or talent? Do you go with the best guy available or your greatest need? That's another tough choice the team is going to have. Let's say the Wolves' bad luck continues and they fall to the 4th pick; do they then consider a swingman like Donte Green or Chris Douglas-Roberts? If ever there was a Roy-esque player in this year's draft it's Mr. Douglas-Roberts. Green is a bit untested but he has the outside firepower that the Wolves need. Oh well, it's a long ways away and I think the Wolves will eventually give us something to root about this year on the court. At least I hope they do. Thanks again for the compliment.
SNP,
I don't know if there is much to debate as far as need vs. best available. When you are as bad as the Wolves you take best available. Between AJ, Foye, and Shaddy you could (maybe) say that we are ok at 1,2 and 4. But, who wouldn't take a potential superstar over any of the three? Stockpiling picks and young talent is the only way out of this mess, and I'll be livid if we take a lesser player that fills a need.
Which begs another question? Are any of the potential draftees perceived as either "can't miss" or potential superstars?
I've gotta admit, I don't pay much attention to college hoops until tourney time (hopefully Tubby will give me a reason to change that in the not too distant future).
There will be some tension between these 2 approaches.
Take Michael Beasley for example. He's a 6'9" combo forward who probably fits the 4 more than the 3. He can take his man off the dribble or shoot it from range. He is also a tremendous rebounder...especially on the offensive end. He's the cream of the crop in this year's draft. Yet, he's a sieve on d. Could the team get by with 2 (maybe 3 if Smith starts at the 3) bad players in the front court? Wouldn't this just highlight Big Al's problems with guarding legit 5s? (speaking of centers, check out this good article on NBA 5s: http://tinyurl.com/2cvryq)
Beasley is the one pick in this draft that is ready-made for the NBA. He's got the body, the athleticism, the offensive game, and the rebounding. What he dosen't have is the d. He's often been compared to a more athletic Derrick Coleman. The guy's getting 24 and 13 while getting double and triple teamed. Keep an eye on him in the Big 12 season.
After that, you have players like DeAndre Jordan and Donte Green with massively high ceilings but are a few years away from being effective at the NBA level. Do you pick a player like Chris Douglas-Roberts over a freshman with promise? What about 4-year starter Roy Hibbert vis-a-vis Jordan or Brook Lopez? If they pick at 4-7, do they pick the best swingman or the 2nd best point/center?
Outside of Beasley, there are 2-3 players viewed as being can't miss: Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, and Eric Gordon. Beasley is the one with the talent to be a superstar. The others are more likely to be solid starters.
Sounds like Beasley is the pick if we get the #1 or if he drops to us. Then we trade Big Al to Miami (or another impatient team in the lotto) for Haslem, Cook and their lottery pick. Not sure if the numbers work, but something like that. Al would probably be a big upgrade for any team in the lottery, big enough to get their pick and maybe a nice role player or two.
There's another place Big Al can go to!! ;) I was kind of half kidding the last time I said it, but it is kind of sad that you could probably get more for Big Al than you could for KG. The Bulls and Heat would be 2 good targets if the Big Al apocalypse came down upon us.
In all seriousness, if we are going to talk about what the Wolves could do to improve, it helps to identify their assets:
1- Big Al- 20 and 10 at $11/year (escalating to $15) is a sweet deal and there are plenty of teams who would like to have him on the low post.
2- Theo Ratliff's money off the books. To expire or not to expire. Do you go into next year with Theo off the books and $55 million spread out over 9 active players (including either Bassy or Gomes at $3 mil/year), or do you try to work a trade with a cash-strapped team for a 2 year contract and a 1st rounder? As much as I like getting his money off the books, as long as they stay below the luxury mark with what they get in return, I think they would be silly not to consider moving his contract to a team that is in dire cap straights. The Knicks are just sitting there over $20 above the luxury cap and players like Quentin Richardson and Jerome James eating up valuable cap space. In reality, $11 off the books for a team above the salary cap like the Knicks equals $22 million in real money for the franchise. Here's a quick take on a possible trade with the Knicks: http://tinyurl.com/ytja8w
If the Wolves offered Ratliff for Richardson, James and the Knicks 1st rounder, the Knicks would save nearly $60 million over the next 2 years while freeing up valuable cap space for a big free agent run after Starbury clears the books. The 2009/10 free agent season is going to be insane and they will be able to be players if a deal like this went down. Meanwhile, the Wolves pick up a top-5 pick for $29 million over 2 years. You'd get a legit rotation player in Q and...well, it would suck to have to pay James but is 1-3 mil over the luxury rate too much to pay for 2 top 5 draft picks? Hell, you can round out your starting 5.
3- Blount's trade exception: I've gone over this before with Phoenix but another option would be to offer the Knicks the TE for either Nate Robinson or David Lee and their next 2 2nd rounders. I cannot stress how FUBAR'd the Knicks are with the cap. Each and every dollar they spend, they have to tack on another one for the luxury tax. Because of this, and because they already have 13 players under guaranteed contracts next year, they have absolutely zero use for their 2nd round pick...which is going to be high. Also, unless they want to pay people not to play, they need to get rid of bodies, plain and simple. Hell, let them throw in Renaldo Balkman with one of the other guys.
That's about it. You could argue for McCants but I think anything else the Wolves have to offer would have to be included with either Big Al, Ratliff's salary, or the trade exception. I think they need to find a way to use 2 of the 3 to get additional picks.
Jesus! You are a machine.
As much as I'd hate to see Q and James on the roster (although, sadly, we could probably use them)...the Knicks are locked in on a great pick. Very Interesting.
Britt can you slip this post to McHale?...please! Maybe you can attach slip into an issue of Field and Stream, so he'll read it.
and by "bad players" I mean "bad defensive players"....stupid typing.
As for the need vs talent debate. Last year I read an interesting article on ESPN. Some coaches use a tier system.
Basicly, you first group the people in tiers according to talent. People that are about the same level.
In last year's draft, it would have been something like this. Keep in mind, not everyone had the same tiers...
Tier 1: Oden, Durant
Tier 2: Horford, Conley
Tier 3: Wright, Brewer, Noah, ...
Then, inside each tier you order by need. So say you got the 3rd pick and you have a huge need a PG.
First rule, you never pick from tier 2 when someone from tier 1 is still on the board, same goes for 3 and 2, etc...
So If you've got the 3rd pick and need a PG. Oden and noah get picked 1 and 2 > you go for durant even though you need a PG, the tier system makes sure you don't reach for need with conley.
Same situation but now oden and durant get drafted one and two. Even though Horford might be slight "better" than conley. Because they are in the same talent tier you pick conley because you need a PG.
Off course the system isn't perfect and a lot depends on where you decide to put the tier.
Ok now I got that explained... I also think you put a little more weight on talent in the 1st round and a lot more in need in the 2nd. Since the difference in talent tends to be mucht spaller between the 2nd round players... That's why I think we should defenitly have been able to grab a big in last years second round ... anyway
First of all, if tailor doesn't want to take a bad contract of 5mil for a year or 2 in exchange for a mid 1st round pick while we are in rebuilding mode and have this kind of record ... what the hell did he trade garnett for than. If the situation as described above is correct, there's no way they pass on that chance if they get it.
If I would have to make tiers now from what I've read and seen (only seen Rose in the top talents) it would be.
Tier 1: beasly
Tier 2: rose, gordon ... maybe add mayo, but I wouldn't
Tier3: mayo, jordan
So if we get pick 1, we take beasly and fill a need with whatever picks we can get.
If we get pick 2, we take rose if he's there, if he isn't, beasly
if we get pick 3, and both rose and beasly are gone it gets tricky. The system says we don't pick in tier 3 when tier 2 is available. So the system says pick gordon, though if you want a good center as much as I do you might have the feeling you want to take jordan. Though I would trust the system and not take the risc of regretting passing on gordon later.
Especially if we get a mid 1st rounder, there are plenty of good centers to be had there.. Riek, thabeet (whom I now say play against ND and would defenitly like to pair with Jefferson!) ...
If we have pick 4, we obviously again pick gordon if he's there, if he isn't you can choose between mayo and jordan. We obviously pick jordan.
So in short. Let's hope you're right about the trade exception thing and we can pick up a good center with a mid 1st rounder so we don't have the temptation of reaching with our other 1st rounder. Plenty of point guards and centers, we NEED to get as much picks at possible. Portland showed it is possible...
And SnP; great information. Thank you! Seems like I've hit the goldmine here. So much intelligent comments. Defenitly gonna check out Canishoopus in the morning...
I'm not sure about this comment system. If we get a few more replies we will be down to one word on each line.
And think, the Wolves aren't even popular right now. Imagine how many more comments there will be when they get good again... someday...
Even though Miami didn't play any defense until mid-third quarter, the ball movement and defense aggressiveness created easy transition opportunities. As opposed to scouring the earth for jump shooters in some sort of mutated, Flip 2.0 offense, finding players who will play the right way helps. All the little things the Wolves don't usually do--sharing the ball, picking up their man earlier in the half-court, etc.--they did last night, albeit against crappy opposition. But a win is a win.
I was afraid that the artist formerly known to Jim Pete as the second best center in the Western Conference and Ricky Davis were going to treat the Wolves as they did their former Celtics team, skipping and hugging their way to a win. The fact that those two again laid down like dogs demonstrates just how bad the first Boston trade was for the Wolves. Then again, since Marcus Banks has resurrected himself into the Suns rotation, maybe he WAS the key piece of the trade.
I really want McCants to succeed, but he's fools gold to me. Like many other three quarter chest thumpers we've had around here, he hasn't shown the consistent ability to be a difference maker when the game is teetering on the line. Maybe when Foye comes back they can have a remedial version of a Big Three--Jefferson, Foye and Rashad--but McCants was threatening to again put himself on the bench with clueless defense and fouling. He gets the scowl working fine, but give me someone who can stick a mid-range jumper in the face of a 10-0 opposition run, or in the last two minutes of a game.
Since McHale had taken all the spin out of the room with his quotes on the Wolves website and in the MSM, it was refreshing to hear a game being called simply on it's own merits. What a concept! I'm certain that if the club tanks into February, Glen Taylor will be the next one to be trotted out, saying how much confidence he has in both the Iron Ranger and Wittman, and that the team shouldn't be judged by wins or losses.
I can hardly wait.
I agree w description of McCants as "fools gold". When he is on, his shot is a thing of beauty. When he is not, he is awful. BR has it right though when he says they should keep playing and playing McCants to find out whether he has any value to the Wolves. What is there to lose-games, fans, money? That's gonna happen anyway. I did see some effort on defense against Miami and that was encouraging.
Lately Gomes has played like the player who was hyped right after the trade. His play has been solid and as BR noted that pass to Jefferson with 90 seconds left was a good play at a crucial time.
I've only been reading this year and not posting. Just wanted to say great analysis and comments. Better than last year even, which is saying a lot given the sorry state of the win-loss column.
Curious that McFail's comments about Wittman being a great coach on the day after didn't garner more attention. Sorry, I can't let up on the Ostrich, not when Chauncy Billups and Brandon Roy could be our backcourt with KG on the team. Not living in the past, but justifiably bitter that the Ostrich is still here.