Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by D. Clarke Evans/NBAE via Getty Images)
Game #35, Road Game #18: Minnesota 82, Houston 113
Game #36, Road Game #19: Minnesota 88, San Antonio 105
Season record: 5-31
1. The Emergence of Gomes
Let's begin with the good news. In terms of being a complete, synergistic basketball player working to enable his team toward victory, Ryan Gomes has put together the best three-week stretch of anyone in a Timberwolves uniform thus far this 2007-08 season--better than any comparable peak period from Jefferson, McCants, Jaric, you name it. The numbers by themselves are mildly impressive: In the 12 games beginning with the Indiana win on December 21, the 6-7 forward has averaged 14.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while shooting 47% from the field and 86.7% from the line (39-45 FT, nearly 4 FTA per game). But three factors bolster the value and context of those figures.
First, consistency: If you throw out his horrible performance last Sunday against Dallas, Gomes has scored in double figures every game in the past eleven and snagged at least five rebounds in all but one of them (getting just two versus Seattle). Second, role-playing: Gomes is getting his points despite rarely having plays called for him as happens with Jefferson and McCants, and is snagging rebounds despite rare appearances at one of the two frontcourt positions that would ensure him more boards. Third, intangibles: This goes beyond role-playing and addresses basketball intelligence, the trendy way of saying Gomes knows how to play the game. When Gomes was mired in his mysterious doldrums in late November and early December, it was remarkable, and depressing, to see how much the Wolves' basketball IQ was elevated when long past his prime vet Antoine Walker stepped out on the court. Aside from Walker, the guys with half a clue seemed to be the two Florida rooks, Brewer and Richard, and 'Toine, despite his admirable spunk in response to the thudding career comedown of joining the Wolves, still was a guy ultimately most comfortable in going for his. Ditto Jefferson and McCants, without the court savvy. And while point guards Telfair and Jaric seem to know how to play, they each exhibit crippling flaws (for Telfair, shooting; for Jaric, lack of quickness in playing the point) that prevent them from executing.
That's what has made Gomes so invaluable during this stretch. As mentioned in the last trey, he's a glue guy, doing the things that don't always make the stat sheet; not so much an initiator or a finisher in the half-court game as a linchpin between the two, not only fostering ball movement for its own sake, but making the smart, slightly creative, yet still high-percentage pass that exploits the defensive seam in a way that forces adjustments and opens larger seams for open jumpers and layups that generate assists on the next pass. If basketball were scored like hockey, with multiple assists, Gomes would rank just behind the two point guards for dishes. He's already second on the team in rebounds per game, and fourth in points per game (and seemingly destined to pass Craig Smith in the next few games to be third behind Jefferson and McCants). He rates alongside Jaric, and just ahead of Brewer, as the most versatile defender on the team, committing fewer stupid fouls--a huge Wolves bugaboo--than anyone getting regular minutes. Now all he has to do is stop jacking up treys: After shooting 44% (15-34) from behind the arc in November (while clanking from two-point range; which I believe was the psychological catalyst for the overall deterioration in his game earlier this season), Gomes has been wretched from outside. Take away his 10-36 performance from treyville since 12/21 and he's hitting 54% from the field (54-100 FG).
Unfortunately, there was a glaring gap between Gomes and everyone but plugging center Michael Doleac in terms of consistent aptitude on the Wolves roster during the two losses this weekend. He was the only Wolves player with a pulse in the first half of the blowout Friday night in Houston, tying for the team lead in rebounds with 4 and the sole Timberwolf converting more than half his shots--Gomes went 4-7 FG while the rest of the squad was 8-28 FG--as Houston rumbled to a 61-31 lead at the break and transformed the entire second half into garbage time.
Last night in a much better team effort against San Antonio, Gomes was again Minnesota's clearcut MVP. Responding to the Spurs' opening gameplan of denying McCants and Jefferson easy looks, he burried a couple of open jumpers, then, as the perimeter players began closing out on him, fed McCants for a pair of treys to knot the game at 24 in the first period. By halftime he had a game-high 6 rebounds, was second only to Jefferson in the game with 11 points (again on 4-7 FG), and committed no fouls nor turnovers in 19:14 of action. Yes, he was on the court for most of the second half as the Spurs outscored the Wolves by 18 points, and contributed to that deficit by not responding quickly enough to the Spurs inside-outside offensive ball movement (at 250 pounds, rapid defense from paint to perimeter in the half court is not Gomes's forte). But anyone watching the game would acknowledge that the Spurs' full court pressure on defense and ability to score (or provoke mismatches) inside were the two biggest factors in their win.
For the game, Gomes had 21 points (9-15 FG), second only to Jefferson's 24 (on 10-18 FG) and a game-high 9 rebounds. As color commentator Jim Petersen noted two or three times, he continued "taking what the Spurs gave him" in the Wolves' half-court offense and added a pair of opportunistic baskets in transition to close out both the second and third quarters on a strong note.
It is a long season, of course, and even a consistent three-week run by Gomes doesn't guarantee that his role or his performance will continue unabated on a team that has a surfeit of unproven performers it must cull through before next year's draft. Wolves' stat guru Paul Swanson has informed me that Gomes is a *restricted* free agent at the end of this season, meaning the Wolves can match any offer, a vital distinction not indicated in the salary figures for either hoopshype.com or shamsports. Even if the Wolves feel compelled to take Michael Beasley as the top talent in the NBA draft--who, folks tell me, clones the best of Gomes and Jefferson--Gomes is exactly the sort of smart, consistent player that will always be a valuable commodity.
2. Jefferson: Spelled with an O, no D
On a ballclub without stars, it is difficult not to love Al Jefferson, who turned 23 last week, and is already giving the team 20 points and 11 or 12 rebounds per night by dint of mucking hard in the paint. Throw in his acceptance of a longterm contract that certainly could have been higher had he waited a year--and screwed the Wolves by signing elsewhere--and he's a feel-good story and burgeoning cornerstone on a ballclub crying for a public identity in the post-KG era.
But here's the rub: Nearly halfway through his fourth NBA season, the evidence continues to mount that Al Jefferson is a lazy defender. Perhaps what damns him most of all in this regard is the huge disparity between his doggedly refined low-post game on offense and his frequent willingness to get undressed on defense. When the Wolves set up in the half court, Jefferson's precocious footwork, vast array of shots (jump hook, funky push jumper, up-and-under scoop, beneath-the-rim baseline banker, and well-calibrated wrist flick), cunning in avoiding predictible patterns on his moves and fierce determination to go up and finish in traffic already make him a top ten NBA scorer in the paint. To develop such multi-faceted skills takes dedication and intelligence. Neither of those virtues are apparent, to put it charitably, at the other end of the court.
Yes, Jefferson has been yo-yo'd between his natural power forward spot and center all season since the injury to Theo Ratliff. And it seems that physically he is a 'tweener on defense--lunched by leviathians such as Andrew Bynum yet zipped past or feinted to a faretheewell by small, savvy post performers like Houston's Luis Scola on Friday. But how does that excuse all the times he shows too hard and can't recover on the pick and roll (or, conversely, allows the p+r shooter an open look on the switch), or is caught napping on an interior pass for an easy layup, as happened twice with Francisco Oberto last night? He also doesn't get back in transition very well, and his rotations are adequate at best--and inferior to Michael Doleac or the undersized Craig Smith.
Again, what is especially aggravating about these consistent lapses is that Jefferson continues to improve on offense--even on weak spots such as passing out of double teams, or raising the accuracy of his midrange jumper--while the fundamentals of his D remain fundamentally flawed. It bespeaks of ignorance to that part of his game, and diminishes his otherwise well-earned rep as a blue-collar stalwart. I understand the incentive for such imbalance in a league where Vince Carter is a fan favorite for dunking at one end while tanking at the other, and where no one wants to talk about how the universally lauded Yao Ming is totally ineffective on defense against a half-dozen NBA teams, and couldn't guard relative lilliput Carlos Boozer when a playoff series was on the line. But despite Jefferson's gaudy offensive numbers and my overall admiration for what he has accomplished, albeit only when his team has the rock, I don't believe he deserves to be an All Star this season. Let's not start handing out carrots to a young player with a marvelous upside who is currently staging perhaps the most impressive half-assed season in Timberwolves history.
3. Hosannahs and Brickbats
After alternately arguing for first Doleac and then Richard to be slotted in at center beside Jefferson, this weekend's performances had me agreeing with Doleac's starting assignments and Richard trading in his uni for street clothes on Saturday. As well as Richard recognizes rotations and hustles on defense, he simply abandons any pretense of offense--he's even more unbalanced than Big Al. Twice on Friday his teammates,against all odds, bothered to pass him the ball, simply because he was so wide open. The first time Richard fumbled it; the second time he sent a carom so strong off the glass and rim it would have flown to half-court if not rebounded. Hard to say whether it is nerves, overdoing the self-effacing defensive-oriented role, or simple lack of talent at that end of the court, but Richard isn't such a stud on defense that he can afford to let everyone take him for granted on offense.
Meanwhile, Doleac showcased that midrange jumper I kept harping on while arguing for some playing time for the Pale Rider earlier this season. He also knows how to commit the hard interior foul that prevents "and 1" from happening when someone loses their man in the paint. He play at both ends of the court was obviously bedeviling the Spurs on Saturday, as they ran multiple plays right at him after he'd picked up his 4th foul. Finally they were able to draw the fifth infraction with 5:50 left in the third period, sending Doleac to the bench for Smith. San Antonio promptly extended a 58-55 lead to 73-60--a 15-5 run--over the next 4:42 and that was essentially the ballgame. Word is that Theo Ratliff will be in the lineup soon. A Ratliff-Doleac platoon at the 5 gives the Wolves a fighting chance--and consistent minutes for Jefferson where he belongs--against squads with legitimate big men. Let that happen with Foye at the point and then we can finally see what we have on this roster.
Ah yes, the point guard spot. It is becoming more and more dramatically obvious that Telfair's future will be determined by his ability to hit an open jump shot. Houston and San Antonio both gave Bassy a wide berth out on the perimeter--to the extent that it was almost 5-on-4 with the other players--and Telfair shot 1-10 FG in a combined 69:58 of play. That's one shot every 7 minutes, or less than 7 per 48, a huge reluctance when the opponents are daring you to score--and yet, as Telfair's wayward aim demonstrated, a wise reticence on his part. Meanwhile, brickmeister Bassy got the minutes because Marko Jaric may as well have been sidling in quicksand against the likes of Tony Parker, Rafter Alston, Jacques Vaughn and Aaron Brooks. Jaric himself shot 1-3 FG in a combined 39:06, fewer FG per minute than Bassy. Hmmm, maybe it is time to spot McCants in at the point every now and then, with Brewer, Gomes, Jefferson and Doleac. It would give the ego-laden tattoo aficionado incentive to distribute the rock and perhaps prompt him to be more turnover conscious. A gamble, yes, but the current alternatives aren't exactly delivering dividends.
Even when he was going 7-9 FG in the meaningless second half against Houston, Brewer's form is enough to give Fred Hoiberg an ulcer. Can he make NBA defenses respect him with that mid-air flailing? Well, Telfair certainly looks pretty going up, and the ball doesn't go in. But the burden of proof to turn that mess into points is squarely on Brewer.
Just some food for thought for evaluating draft talent:
John Hollinger's evaluation of pro potential for college players:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72515
Hoops Analyst:
http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/
Also keep your eye on the APBR Forum for updates on rookies, prospects, and free agents:
http://apbr.org/forum
Britt, wondering where you stand in regards to the draft this spring...The consensus that beasley is a great talent and great fit does not make sense to me with our roster. Beasley is a 4 and not versatile enough to go on the wing according to most. I have not read anyone advocating for derrick rose. He is a mutant (in a good way) and would allow foye to slide over to his natural position, though not to say foye would not still be useful at the point. I just don't have enough confidence in foye at the 1 with his ball handling, and defense of smaller and quicker guards. this could be the best backcourt in the league very shortly! I think we should have this as the goal...what do you think?
The verdict is still out on Beasley because of 2 main factors:
1- Defense
2- NBA position
Beasley has looked absolutely clueless on the defensive end at times this year. Against top-line NCAA competition, he's given up a ton of points in sometimes embarrassing fashion. Against Oklahoma (with a legit NBA prospect-filled front line-- Longar and Griffin) he gave up 27 to Griffin (he also had trouble getting his inside shot off against Longar).
He can hit from outside and can handle the ball well enough to get off a shot against (admittedly inferior) college forwards, and his game is diversified enough to be an in/out threat, but this versatility is limited because his defense is even worse on the perimeter than it is inside. At 6'9" and with great athleticism, he has the tools to be an NBA player, but there are some questions as to where he would plug into an everyday lineup.
If you're a Wolves fan who has grown a bit tired of Big Al's defense and (sometimes) tweener' status with the 4 and 5, the prospect of a Smith, Beasley, Big Al front court should give you night terrors. At first I was really sold on Beasley, but the more I see and read about his game, it just doesn't fit with what the Wolves are trying to do.
Rose is clearly the best 1 in the draft, but his one Achilles Heel is his outside shooting...something the Wolves already have enough of an issue with.
Of course, if you're going to hedge your draft bets against the Wolves' negatives, you're never going to find an acceptable pick. Rose has a huge ceiling and he just seems like a team leader/winner on the court. As far as overall Wolves needs go, Rose clearly tops Beasley.
If Foye works out spectacularly at the point and Bassy can be resigned as a backup, then the Wolves can address centers and swingmen. DeAndre Jordan, Roy Hibbert, and Devon Hardin are the 3 best fits for the Wolves at the 5. Unfortunately, this year's draft is pretty thin at the 3: Donte Green has tons of potential and can hit from way outside but there are questions about him being able to guard NBA 3s. Chase Budinger is the other college 3 that will go high and there are 2 foreign swing men (Danilo Gallinari and Nicolas Batum) that are highly thought of...and who I would be lying if I said I knew anything about their game (the Italian kid is VERY highly thought of). According to DraftExpress, the T-Wolves have scouted Gallinari:
"All in all, this was a very impressive performance from a 19 year old player at the top level of Europe. The fact that he was such an indispensable cog in his team’s very important victory on the road made this a very significant performance as far as the scouts we talked to were concerned. Teams that were represented included the Portland Trailblazers (Chad Buchannan), Minnesota Timberwolves (Pete Philo), Boston Celtics (Ryan McDonough), Charlotte Bobcats (Scott Howard and Rich Shuebrooks), Denver Nuggets (Simon Cote), Cleveland Cavaliers (Chico Averbuck), Golden State Warriors (Kosta Jankov) and probably others that we did not get to see or talk to."
This draft isn't especially deep and if the Wolves can't walk away with Rose they'll get to pick from a bunch of players with short resumes. There are some value picks in the teens (Augustin, Lawson, Hardin, etc) but with a top-5 pick, this isn't the year where you have some gee-whiz-can't-miss prospect.
I think the Wolves' draft board should look like this:
Derrick Rose
DeAndre Jordan
followed by the best swingman available (to include the international players who I know nothing about). If they can't get one of those 2, I think their 2nd round pick should be high enough to get a value pick at the 5 or 3; either from college or internationally.
Good post SnP. I agree about Beasley, and I'm glad to see that there are others avoiding the Beasley bandwagon. I'll qualify this by saying that I'm a huge Rose fan with growing Jordan sentiments, and that I've never been a big Beasly fan. Still, I try to remain as objective as possible when evaluating prospects, as it really boils down to the best interest of the Wolves (unless our best interest has to do with watching Joakim Noah run around for 30 minutes a game.. that's where I put my foot down.) In brief:
I firmly believe that while Beasley will put up numbers in the NBA, he's not the type of player you win with. Granted, he could change his stripes, but as of right now I see glaring red flags in every report I read. Such words and phrases as "lack of defensive intensity" and "frequently looks lost defensively" go a long way in balancing out sure-fire scoring production in my book. Add to this that you'd be hard pressed to find a scout who thinks he will be at his BEST as a 3 (he should be a 4) and it's pretty clear to me that, as of right now, it's a two horse race between Rose and Jordan.
I also feel it's worth mentioning that, while I'm no scout, when I evaluate players I look for the subtle things that seem to fly under the general public's radar. Things like praise for work ethic, confirmation of commitment to defense, attitude (or lack thereof), ability to improve as a player etc. These are the types of notes that abound in Rose's scouting reports and play a huge role in his current reign as #1 on my board. If coaches/scouts start addressing the supposed concerns about Jordan's work ethic he could certainly usurp Rose, but Rose is definitely a high-character, hard working winner-type. As to Jordan, his potential is truly outstanding. If you haven't seen the video, youtube his recent game against Colorado and check out his putback dunk. You can see where the D Howard comparisons come from.
Luckily for us, Foye's return and the rest of the NCAA season should help us figure out who our true top prospects should be.. If Foye looks like an above-average PG, I would certainly be happy with picking Jordan to fill that gaping hole in the middle.
After those two is where it gets sketchy. Beasley will likely be gone if Jordan and Rose aren't on the board, so the next guy, to me, is Donte Greene. I'm not the greatest NCAA mind on earth, but the consensus opinion that I've gathered from fans who've watched him is that he actually shows much more capability to guard the 3 than Beasley does at this point. Apparently he has excellent lateral quickness for a guy his size and shows some hints of being able to guard at least 3 spots (2,3,4) in the NBA. He also blocks shots, hits the boards and has easy NBA 3 point range. I'd prefer to address a bigger need, but if it boils down to it I think you could do much worse than a guy who gets compared to a more athletic, more defensively capable Rashard Lewis to put next to Al.
By the way, if Rose's biggest knock is his jump shot, his current 39.5% mark from downtown is something I can live with. Considering that Tony Parker found a way to be an impact PG without any semblance of a jumper for his first few years in the league, I think Rose will do fine (his first step is near unstoppable, and he's about 2+ inches taller than Parker, also). I also believe his current system is limiting his production, and that in the right system with NBA talent around him he'll absolutely flourish. He has dominant size and athleticism for his position (which is his TRUE position, I can't oversell the value of the fact that he isn't a combo guard), plays hard on both ends of the court and is a triple double waiting to happen. SoJordan could could easily look like the #1 for the wolves by the end of the season, but I think Rose will be an absolute stud, and I value stud PG's only below dominant C's as far as positional importance goes.
SnP, I think that was a pretty good breakdown. At this point, I 100% agree that the best players for the Wolves are Rose & Jordan in that order. Beasley's lackadaisical defense and me-first attitude are red flags, and he might not fit well with Al in the frontcourt.
Some other top prospects would put the Wolves in a difficult situation. They are OJ Mayo of USC and Eric Gordon of Indiana. Both are "combo guards" who can score like crazy but don't have exceptional size for the shooting guard position, and would likely have to spend time at the point. Problem is neither of them are "true" point guards like Rose. Plus if the Wolves draft one of these players, where does that leave Foye and McCants? Interesting to think about, but if the Wolves get a pick around #4-#5, and they want the BPA they would likely go with one of these two. Mayo, as many have heard, also has shown some prima-donna attitudes in the past.
Matty P:
Thanks. As for the combo guards, I'm a big Mayo fan. I've seen 4 or 5 of his games this year and he has one of the nicest j's I've seen in a long time. The elevation he gets off screens is incredible. Plus, he has a tremendous handle and can get to the rim. I'm going to see Gordon in person at the Barn this week and in the 3 games I've seen him so far he's been impressive.
I think if the Wolves bottom out by falling as far as they can go in the draft (4th if they have the worst record) they need to go with a 3 or 5. Taking a PG with a top 3 pick is a tough enough proposition to swallow even with a talent like Rose and if they fall down to 4, Rose will be gone and they shouldn't stretch to Augustin. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to get a lot of interest up top, but if they fall, they should try to trade down and select Hardin or Augustin in the teens where they belong.
Oh well, there's a lot of basketball left in the season and I'm really looking forward to Foye's return. Hopefully he'll work out and the Wolves can address another need in the draft instead of having to make up for past mistakes.
At first I was really sour on Mayo, after hearing about his altercation with a referee in high school and how he sent one of his posse to tell Tim Floyd he was coming there. The first game if the season he took 27 shots (making 12 of them) and upset the offensive flow as USC lost to Mercer.
However he has definitely improved my perception after that start, playing within the offense and giving effort all around the court. I was impressed with his defense on Derrick Rose in the USC-Memphis game. Mayo has great athletic ability (perhaps more than Rose) and can flat out score. There aren't a whole lot of other offensive options for the Trojans, and a lot of their offense late in games depends on Mayo to isolate. I think if he can stay motivated, he will be a great NBA player. And apparently he's not *that* short either, measuring between 6'4" and 6'5", which isn't terrible size for the 2, especially considering how athletic he is.
At this point, I still think that the potential that Rose has is too big to pass up if he's available. A "true" PG that can distribute and defend is rare in the NBA ...
I have heard quite a bit on Gordon but I haven't seen him play yet. Some think he has better natural ability than Mayo ... I can't really comment yet. I will be watching the Gopher-Indiana game to see...
As a fan of Big 12 sports (go Sooners) I'd like to add one more thing in defense of Mayo: Tim Floyd (former ISU coach) coaches the ugliest basketball in the history of the world. If you combine this with USC's roster of offensively stunted athletic talents, it's a recipe for some nasty, nasty ball.
You can see the Mayo "shove" here:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=qkt4YdLdXjM
Mr. Ref took a dive. Pretty embarrassing.
Finally, despite the ugly ball, Floyd is a hell of a coach who has a history of maximizing talent...as the careers of marginal players like Kelvin Cato, Marcus Fizer, and Paul Shirley can attest to.
That being said, I think both Mayo and Gordon should be put far enough down the draft board to avoid being selected by the Wolves in the top-4.
In retrospect to what I last said with the tier system. It seems my knowledge of Beasly is outdated. Out of the top 5 people I have yet to see a game played by Deandre and Mayo. But from what I'm reading know the tiers should be more like this (already ordened by need).
Tier1: Rose, Beasly
Tier2: Gordon
Tier3: Jordan, Mayo
Tier4: the swingmen S&P mentioned and some others...
Which would basicly give the same results S&P is writing about. Only difference is he's higher on Mayo than I am, if he's really as good as some people say (and not as overrated as others say) it would be:
Tier1: Beasly, Rose
Tier2: Gordon, Mayo
Tier3: Jordan
In that case the question becomes, do we need a guy that can spend most of his minutes at the one (for instance if we know Foye can't) or do we need another multi dimensional player. I honestly don't know but it's something I'm defenitly going to be watching when Foye's back.
Duff--
I like to think that one of my strengths is acknowledging what I don't know, and that certainly applies to the college game. There simply aren't enough nights in a year for me to follow college hoops with any regularity, much less form opinions that others might suppose have validity.
There are plenty of NCAA hoops freaks online elsewhere, and even some commenting here, if you want to stick around. But if you're looking for the kind of geekdom you see in my approach to the NBA, you won't find it.
On offense, the game of basketball is as much about confidence as anything else. I play in two rec leagues, one in which I am one of our better offensive players, and one in which I am one of the worst. When I play with teammates better than I, I am far prone to bricking an open jumper, mostly, I believe, because I am thinking maybe I should be getting someone else a better look. Whereas in the league I am one of the better players, I shoot with a great deal more confidence. It's striking how many more bricks I lay in the league in which I don;t think I should be shooting. Bassy sees that other teams are daring him to shoot, and thinks, "Man, I'm so bad nobody has to guard me." With that attitude, no shot will fall. Perhaps the same can be said for Chris Richard, who seems to want no part of the rock on O. I don't know of any solution to their confidence problem, but I think a little belief in themselves would help them greatly on offense.
Nice work as always Britt, the comments section is always so full, I rarely feel the need to contribute.
Shaddy at the point!!! Shaddy at the point!!! They literally have nothing to lose at this stage in the game. I've said it before: he shoots better than Bassy and has a better handle than Marko and it would force him to concentrate (at the very least) on a 2 man game with Big Al.
One final point: as much as I think that the big glaring long-term problem with building a team around Big Al (aside from the terrible defense) is his tweener status with several big men, the T-Wolves' 4's and 5's have the best on/off court and +/- differentials on the team (see 82 Games). The big *immediate* problem is the 1...and the 3. Both spots are giving up about 6 ppg and they are the biggest culprits of the team's terrible shooting, low FTA's, and all-around garbage perimeter play. I don't have the time to check every position on every team, but with a PER differential of over 8, the T-Wolves' points lead the league in negative productivity. They're worse than Atlanta, Charlotte, and Chicago...and that's saying sometthing. (They are the clear leaders at the point; I didn't have the time to check the rest.)
As bad of defenders as Big Al and Smith are, the 4 and 5 on this team hold their own; largely due to the offensive effectiveness of both players. If you take into consideration the Wolves' upcoming front-court personnel problems (look who comes off the books next year), the lack of a gee-whiz-look-at-him center in the draft, and the lack of time that we'll have to look at Foye, I think it's becoming clear what route the team will have to take in the draft: a point or a swingman who can hit from outside. The 1 and 3 slots on this team are insanely bad.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708MIN5.HTM
That being said, in the last 10 games, Gomes has lowered both the point and PER differentials. I don't know if that's enough for a long term solution (even if you could sign him), but it is, as you noted, a nice spot for the team in recent weeks.
Britt.
Best part of your entire trey - Gomes is a restricted free agent. Those few words change my view on him completely. I was unwilling to see him get PT because I was convinced that if he did well, he would be gone for nothing. Now that we can match, let him play. He truly could be a Sam Mitchell type player for us in the longer term - a very valuable asset.
Richard's offense (and to a similar degree, Brewer's) is the result of a lack of confidence. I always watch players shoot free throws before the game. It gives you a true view of their fundamentals (hand position, release, follow through, etc.). Richard's and Brewer's fundamentals are above average. (Unlike their former teammate Noah who has some of the worse fundamentals this side of Shaq) Technically, they should be making more shots. But their confidence in making the shoot is so low, that the mental side overwhelms the physical side. Richard will not get better until Wittman plays him regularly. Which Wittman needs to do because only Richard or Smith can be on the roster next year as either a 4/5 back up.
What are Telfair's work habits? I really think his shooting woes are more mental than physical too. Does he work at it? Hard for a fan to see.
Hopefully, a playoff team needs a 1/2/3 and we can trade Jaric this winter. His lack of quickness really makes him a 3 for us and I see far more attractive options (Brewer/Gomes).
Playing Jefferson at the PF spot should benefit the Wolves and Jefferson defensively. I believe playing McCants is a necessary waste of time because the Wolves are not absolutley sure of his value. Playing Doleac is an unnecessary waste of time because his past performances give the Wolves a good idea of his capabilities Giving Richards more PT gives the Wolves a better idea of what Richards can do over the long run and is a worthy project. As previously noted what harm is there playing a younger player with possible promise vs playing a veteran with a hx of being mediocre or worse?
Have you ever watched a clueless park & rec coach play only five kids until the last minute and then throw the entire bench onto the floor to assuage his guilty conscience? Of course, nothing works and it only adds to the embarrassment of sitting on the pine. To develop, inexperienced players need to have the opportunity to play alongside experienced players. After awhile, players get tired of being yelled at by coaches. A "big brother" pulling aside a novice to offer a few nuggets of sage advice can go along ways to building that elusive confidence that seems to make everything click.
Who would have thought we'd be clamoring for McCants at point? My how low these Wolves have sunk. But, you guys are probably correct. He has definitely improved his handle and passing enough to be a good alternative (on this team!). And I have noticed that he has been taking the ball up court more and more lately (rather than deferring to Telfair), usually with decent results.
Britt, nice to see that you are coming around on the impact of Al's D. As flawed as the +/- figures are...they can't be completely dismissed. Al's lack of D is really hurting this team.
Bold prediction- I think people will soon realize that his reluctance to pass out of the post is hurting us offensively as well. Any decently coached team in the league has got to realize that you triple team him on the catch and force him into a bad/difficult shot....he is ALWAYS going to take the shot.
As much as I like Bassy and think he has a place with this team down the line, the point differential stats are too bad to overlook.
Overall, T-Wolves 1's have an eFG% of .43%...nearly 9 points below what their opponents shoot.
They get to the line 2.4 less times per game than their opponents.
They give up 6.3 more ppg to their opponents.
They get out assisted, blocked, and rebounded as well. To top it off, they allow a stunningi 20.3 PER to opponents. That's Big Al bad on defense. Unlike Big Al, Bassy and Marko don't make up for the difference on offense.
I'm obviously as big a Bassy fan as you, if not bigger, but the only conclusion I can take away from those stats is that Bassy is not a good player right now. But, I agree that he is still very young and having his first opportunity to play big minutes without a short leash.
I once read something by a scout about how NBA teams evaluate young talent. Basically, what they do is use a player's best moments as the baseline and work from there. They look for consistency--sequences at first, then games, then stretches of games, then seasons. The idea is based on two factors 1) That there are no flukes and 2) Improvement happens very incrementally. If a young player can really elevate his game once in a while, there is still talent to be harvested even if it takes time. A hard-working player with talent to burn at 22 is not going to be the same player at 25 or 26.
If you're a fringe playoff team trying to make a deep push, you don't want a starting PG who sprinkles good to great quarters and games into an underwhelming body of work. But if you are 5-33 and committed to rebuilding from the foundation up, your needs are different. Maybe you do go in another direction and draft Rose or Augustin and see what they can do at a cheaper price point. But maybe, instead, you develop your front court, draft Beasley, give Bassy another year or two at $3.5M and see what happens when you put another offensive weapon out on on the floor.
Agree. I think we've seen enough of Bassy to conclude that he is not a starting caliber PG due to his poor shot and tiny frame.
Foye has got to be given the starting gig as soon as he gets back in to game shape. We need to know how effective he can be at the point before the upcoming draft. It would also be nice to see how Bassy fits in to the back-up role. He may be worth keeping if he can handle the job.
Well how about this then: what will a good Foye year look like? What will it take for the team to feel good about going into next season with him at the point? At the 2? Me personally, I'm going to take a snapshot of the positional stats right before he comes back. I'll also look for team pace stats, turnovers, shooting percentage and FTA's. The position is soooooo bad right now that any improvement will look terrific, but there should be some standards for him on his return so that the team can make a good judgment in the draft.
I didn't think about it above, but the main competition for Derrick Rose in the draft is the Miami Heat. They need a point in a major way. After the Heat, Rose would last until the Sonics. If either of those teams draft ahead of the Wolves, he's probably gone.
PS: I'm still heading up the Bassy fan club in the comments section.
Based on what I saw last season, Randy Foye is not a natural point guard. But, he is a good basketball player and could become an adequate point guard and a good combo guard.
I don't think he is going to keep us from drafting a Derrick Rose, but solid play from him for the remainder of the season could sway a decision between Jordan and a lesser PG prospect.