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Game #44, Road Game #24: Minnesota 85, Chicago 96
Game #45, Home Game #21: Chicago 67, Minnesota 83
Season record: 9-36
1. Legitimately Respectable
Flirting with the flu, I decided to avoid contaminating Target Center last night and catch my second straight Bulls-Wolves tilt on the tube. And as both teams renewed their clankfest of the previous evening, it struck me how precipitously fortunes can flip in the NBA. A year ago before the playoffs, I had the Bulls as the likely choice to reach the Finals. This preseason, I figured them for a #2 seed. After watching 96 minutes of head-to-head competition, I like the Wolves' situation better for both the near and long term future. Chicago is paying Ben Wallace twice as much as the Wolves are paying Al Jefferson. Both Luol Deng and Ben Gordon can be unrestricted free agents after next season. Unless Deng and/or Gordon can be coaxed to stay, Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni will be the backbone of this team, with Thabo Sefolosha and Yoakim Noah--both very good, underrated glue guys--and Wallace filling out the lineup.
In Minnesota, Jefferson keeps getting better. The Strib calling him the "New KG" on its front page the other day simply made that declining newspaper look all the more clueless, and the gabfest on FoxSports last night universally lauding the KG-Jefferson deal continues the frantic spin cycle before Garnett comes to town a week from tomorrow. Perhaps if the "Old KG" was still around, FoxSports wouldn't have to show Sweetwater Jones 73 times per telecast or have Jim Petersen and Mike McCollow roll up their shirtsleeves and literally go through the motions on its postgame in lieu of paid advertisements.
But I digress, and it is not fair to Jefferson, who needs no false comparisons to announce his value. One of the few things he and Garnett have in common is an uncommonly dogged work ethic, and watching the budding low-post stud parse and fathom the game but aging Wallace on the tail end of the back-to-back should warm the hearts of the Wolves' faithful. After going 4-5 FG in the first quarter Tuesday night and 6-9 FG for the half, Jefferson was taken out of his rhythm by Wallace in the third quarter, shooting 1-5 FG. The Bulls extended a one-point lead with 10:16 to go in the third up to 11 points with 7 seconds to play in the period and that was essentially the ballgame.
Last night, Jefferson wore Wallace out. Once again, the two big men played only when the other was on the court. After shooting 3-10 FG in the first half, Jefferson went 9-14 FG in the second. Through the first six quarters of their matchup, Jefferson was minus -34, Wallace plus +34. In the last two quarters, Big Al was plus +13 and Wallace was minus -12 before interim Bulls coach Jim Boylan finally threw in the towel and sat him with 2:32 left to play. Sometimes the most basic numbers tell the story most eloquently. This was one of those gritty, ugly 83-67 ballgames. And the man Ben Wallace was guarding went off for 26 points and 20 rebounds.
Without belaboring the point, as Jefferson raised his offense from a B+ to an A over the past week or two, his defense has been elevated from a D to a C. Sure, some of this is two games against Ben Wallace, who will make any defender well with his nonexistent O. But after showing little genuine interest in denying points to the other team, Jefferson does seem to be more engaged in deterring penetration, rotating over to the opposite block and, albeit less successfully, showing on the pick and roll. It's coming.
Not coincidentally, the Wolves are slowly but surely turning into a respectable basketball team--not good, or perhaps even mediocre, but a threat to snatch wins when given the opportunity. Last night provided the perfect example of Kevin McHale's dictum that you can win a dozen or more games simply by making a consistent effort against teams that don't bother to show up.
2. Foye's First Two
We'll get more into #4 when I'm feeling better and there is a larger sample size, but what most struck me about Foye's first two games is that his offense was way ahead of his defense and that he most definitely fits the mold of a shoot-first point guard. That's an indirect compliment to Bassy Telfair, who has accustomed us to a point guard who prioritizes ball distribution and proactive passing (as opposed to the more passive perimeter tossover or the dump into the post). Foye had 10 shots and zero assists in 21:16 last night after going 4-8 FG with 2 dimes in 17:43 Tuesday. That's 18 shots and two assists in 38:59, and aside from a Gerald Green or Shaddy-like flurry of 3-3 FG to open Tuesday's second quarter, he was 4-15 from the field. If this keeps up, Foye will be robbing time from Shaddy, GG, and Jaric more than from Telfair. Here's hoping as Foye gets settled in that there will be less spangles and more glue to his all around game.
3. Small vs. Large Update
Ryan Gomes was too classy to say he was playing out of position on Tuesday night, blaming his own lack of aggressiveness for his scoreless evening, But did we really need to watch Jefferson-Gomes-McCants play head-up against Wallace-Noah-Nocioni for very long before deciding it wasn't going to be pretty? How often do the Wolves get outrebounded 4 to 3 (48-36)? When last night's starting lineup had Brewer in for Shaddy, I assumed it was a height thang rather than a virus on McCants.
Anyway, I thought two stints really changed the nature of last night's game. The first was when coach Randy Wittman finally went big, putting Michael Doleac and Antoine Walker in so that Gomes was kicked down to small forward at the beginning of the second period. The Wolves were plus +8 over the next 5:40. The second tone-changer was when Boylan subbed in guard Chris Duhon for the seven-footer Noah with 5:38 to go in the third. The Bulls were minus -11 for the rest of the period. That's a total 19-point swing in a combined 11:18, and it happened when the Wolves went big and then when the Bulls went small.
My contemporaries in this League of Super Fans,
How close is the trade deadline? In these past few years of dissappointing performance by our beloved franchise, I've always enjoyed the potential trade scenarios that play out on this board.
So what do we go with this year? Any realistic moves that will help this team immediately and/or long term? I'm all ears.
Regarding Randy Foye -- I was at the game and tried to watch him closely. It was obvious that he was not in game shape, sucking wind heavily by the third quarter, while Telfair still looked fresh after running harder AND longer. To be fair about Britt's "Shoot First Point Guard" label, for about half of his time on the court, Randy was the off-guard (remember, McCants had the flu and wasn't even behind the bench in street clothes). However, in the 10:30 Foye was the PG, he shot 1-4.
With all the hype regarding the value of Foye, and his impending return, I was immediately reminded of the old saying "Absence makes the heart grow fonder". Foye has never stuck me as a point guard that can lead a team. So there I was with that helpless sinking feeling watching the Wolves has given me this year.
It is my opinion that Kevin McHale doesn't know and understand the value of point guards.
When does a good run mean a team has turned the corner? The first month of this season I looked too closely for positive signals. I ended up with too many false positives. From about mid-December 'til two weeks ago I had mentally thrown in the towel on this team. Starting with the Denver game 8 games ago, things seem to have taken a positive turn that might actually have longer term value.
Four new guys have shown pretty unmistakable progress the past two weeks - Jefferson, Gomes, Brewer and Bassy. Maybe Witt has as well. I agree there are 8-9 teams with inferior rosters in the 2-3 year term. Playing middle of the pack basketball with a roster and contract picture with some upside is what I hoped for back when Ricky and Blount got shipped out. It took 10-11 weeks to get there, but I think the Wolves have a 60-40 shot of building something good over the next 12 weeks.
Height or virus...whatever it was I think it foreshadowed Shaddy's upcoming decline in minutes while splitting time between the 2 and 3.
My memory is a bit hazy about Foye's first year but does anyone remember if his defense was up to snuff? I ask because this team simply can't run out a Foye, Jaric, McCants combo at the 1-2-3. That's a defensive no-go from hell. Where do you put McCants in this lineup if you want to have anything approaching defensive aptitude out there on the court?
I'd also like to second what Britt said about Bassy. Not only does he have an above average ast/to ratio, but he's also showing signs of being able to control the tempo. Keep in mind that he's doing all of this with zero perimeter help. Foye should get the 15 or so minutes at the point while Bassy is on the bench but the rest should come at the expense of Jaric and McCants.
Finally, I'd like to see more of Gerald Green and Brewer on the court together. They compliment each other in a weird way; one can't really defend and the other can't shoot, but together they're a couple of 6'9" gazelles that can really provide size and speed to a small ball lineup with Telfair, Gomes, and Jefferson. I'm not saying they get a ton of minutes, but they seem to be a nice substitution package when the club is going small.
I don't think there is any reason to question McCant's sickness. Don't you think Wittman would have like to have had him out there in that ugly first half when we couldn't score.
Rashad is playing well. I would say if anyone is going to see their minutes cut due to Foye's return, it will be Marko. Foye gives you the same or better ball handling and is a much better scorer.
RL--
I honesty don't think anybody knows whose minutes get cut in favor of Foye. Jaric is valuable because of his height. Witt and company seem to love the small lineup, but if you run out Jeff-Gomes-Shaddy-Foye-Telfair it starts to get a little ridiculous. Marko's 6-7 gives you some matchup options at the swing slot.
For that matter, Marko's disinclination to shoot makes him a good pairing with McCants, perhaps off the bench. From what we saw of Foye in the first couple games back, he and McCants exhibit too much redundancy. And we haven't even talked about Brewer and Green.
It probably won't happen, but packaging a trade where a team takes on Walker's expensive deal in return for a bargain like Craig Smith, McCants or (for those intrigued by his upside) Green in return for a legit emerging big man to complement Jefferson and Gomes in a big front line is the sort of trade I'd be most interested in consummating. (Obviously McCants is the most valuable of the latter trio and would necessitate a higher-quality big man.) But that isn't the philosphy of this braintrust, which seems intent on grooming Jefferson as a center. Who knows why?
I like the idea of getting an emerging big man but putting a face to that sentiment is easier said than done. I'm not too sure there are too many teams out there willing to part with such a commodity. Portland has Channing Frye and the Vanilla Gorilla and they're super hard up to move players but they're not going to trade within the division. Emeka Okafor is a RFA next year so I guess a sign-and-trade with the Bobcats isn't totally out of the realm of possibility (although very close). I'm sure Memphis wouldn't mind a do-over on Darko. No matter what Sam Mitchell and Jerry Coangelo say, I'm sure they wouldn't mind the same for Andrea Bargnani (not really a C).
The best I can come up with are:
-Samuel Dalembert for Theo Ratliff (ideally the Wolves can throw in Marko for some leftover salary).
-Theo Ratliff, Shaddy, and Craig Smith for Ben Wallace and Joakim Noah.
-Try to dangle Ratliff in a 3-way deal involving the Nets and ask for Nenad Krstic.
They also have the $5 mil trade exception to throw around so they could even try to pull something with Walker or Marko for a more expensive player. I think the Bulls would jump at the chance to get rid of Big Ben and open up cap space for their FA fubars. Shaddy also gives them a bit of insurance with Gordon so they can make for sure Deng doesn't leave. Losing Noah hurts but so does signing a rebounder for $15 mil/year. The Wolves will have to suck it up for 2 more years with Wallace's contract but both he and Walker would come off the books together and no matter what 600 1st Avenue says, they're in no position to move on anything in free agency until then anyway. In the mean time, they get a do-over on last year's draft, pick up a legit 5, and clear out the completely redundant McCants. They also get a highly priced backup 4/5 and a nice trading chip in his contract year (if they don't let him expire).
Stop,
My opinion is that the Wolves should dangle Craig Smith and Gerald Green for Patrick O'Bryant. I think the Warriors would take it, since Green seems to fit well with their style, Smith is a plus for pretty much any team, and they obviously have little to no use for O'Bryant. For the Wolves, O'Bryant's a guy with an expiring (though small) contract and is a 21 year old 250 pound 7 footer. He also solves the size problem, letting Jefferson slide back to forward, while adding some shot-blocking. While there is legitimate concern about whether he can hack it as a pro, I think that he's worth a half-season tryout to see if something is there, if only because of the Wolves' paucity at the position.
I don't know about O'Bryant. The guy has been an absolute bust in Golden State and when he was sent down to the D-League he was underwhelming to say the least. If the Wolves are going to keep Smith in their long term plans, they can likely sign O'Bryant for the league minimum when he gets cut loose in the off-season. I do like the idea of trying something with Golden State. Shaddy and Smith are Nelly Ball players to the x-degree. I doubt they'd part with Andris Biedrins but he's exactly the type of young center that would work along side of Big Al. I just don't think the Wolves would have enough to offer to pry him away from GS.
Right now, I don't believe Smith will stay in Minnesota. Considering his position as a backup, I don't know how they can justify paying him more than $3 million per year. At that rate, Smith could sign with some contending (or should be contending) teams like Houston, Cleveland, and Chicago and get a chance at a ring. Or he could with a bad team needing a power forward for close to the exemption level. If he's not coming back the Wolves, they might as well trade him and Green to test out a young kid.
Not only do I think the Warriors wouldn't trade Biedrins, I'm not sure the Wolves should pull that trade. They would get a guy who needs to be closer to the basket than Jefferson to score while giving up their best long-ranger shooter. To me that's a recipe for getting crushed in the paint.
Trading for a young big guy is a great idea...in theory. The problem is big guys with potential tend to be 1) prohibitively overpaid (Dalembert) 2) nearly untouchable per their present team (Biedrins) or 3) Total busts (O'Byrant).
Would we want a guy that fits crtieria #1 or #3? Do we have the pieces to pull of a trade for a guy falling into #2 (without gutting our nucleus)?
Is it reasonable to think that we can package an undersized PF with one of our SG-SFs (Marko, McCants, Green) for a legit big guy prospect? The league is full of what we would be offering. Talented big guys are precious commodities.
In defense of the Rhino....Considering that Mad Dog is making $2.5 and Buckner $3.8, he would be an enormous bargain at anything close to $3-4 per. While he doesn't have starting PF size, I am convinced that he can be a very good role player off the bench. Why not see if we can sign him? If the numbers are acceptable, we can always trade him down the road.
All of this really compounds the Brewer vs. Noah pick. Had Big Al been with the team, that selection is a no-brainer.
The problem with saying we need a big man and getting one is that they are such a valuable commodity that typically they are either overpaid or they suck. I'm of the opinion that it's an important enough position that you have to be willing to sacrifice for a player you want. I'm all about getting Noah on the squad and I think they should throw everybody but Jefferson at the Bulls to get him. Imagine going into next year with this rotation:
1- Telfair/Foye
2- Jaric/Foye/Brewer
3- Gomes/Draft pick/Brewer
4- Big Al/Big Ben
5- Noah/Big Ben
Yes please. Plus, you'd have 2 huge contracts coming off the books in consecutive years; Walker's then Big Ben's; that's $9 and $15 million to play around with in free agency. Will it suck for a year? Probably not as much as you might think considering the quality of the product will go up. Noah and Big Ben are exactly the type of player you want to have around Big Al. Hell, give them Ratliff, McCants, Smith, Green...whatever. Throw in the trade exception and the Celtic pick. Get those 2 on board.
Another great read.
It seems halfway in the season we know at what positions we are set. SG and PF are more than covered and SF is covered.
I really think we could have a championship type team with the players we've got at those positions. Off course Portland is also on that path...
In spite of the fact I'm a sucker for facilitator point guards I still think Foye might play some minutes at PG, especially when we want to go big.
When you see a player like doleac making such a positive difference it makes it blatantly obvious we need a bigger center for certain games.
So while I think there's no real need for an extra point guard, it wouldn't hurt. Let's hope Foye gets to 100% soon so when can see in the rest of the season how much of an impace he has at the point. I'm defenitly interested in that more detailed view of you Britt (when we've got more sample size).
I defenitly feel we're on the right track now, not only because we've been winning more but because of the fact they're finding ways to win games even though they're playing great ball. That's defenitly a treat of a future contender.
I think it would be really interesting to see a tall ball lineup.
When Ratliff gets back, he gets the center spot, with Jefferson at PF, Gomes at SF, Brewer at SG and Bassy/Foye at point. My guess is that would be a very strong lineup. Sub in Smith, Jaric, McCants if he's still around, and Doleac.
If that works out, then our primary draft need is not PG, but rather a defensive minded center.
But what do I know???
Pushing the near/long-term distinction aside, and just focusing generally, as a fan, what other teams--(besides Chicago)--would you not trade situations with? I think I would prefer the Wolves roster/situation to these:
Heat
Clippers
Nets
Pacers
Knicks
76ers
Bobcats
Kings.
I don't think I would include Chicago, mainly because they get to play in the East, and it shouldn't take much refocusing to become a Top-4/5 team in that conference. However, if they lose Gordon/Deng, like you suggested, that would change my opinion. Seattle is close, but I'd still like my shot with KD, Jeff Green and next year's high pick, whoever that is. Atlanta never seems to step up and become a contender, but Johnson and Smith are still pretty young, and Acie Law IV's development could be the missing piece that they need. Surprisingly large group of teams, though.
I'd add Chicago because they spent all their money on a rebounder and failed to lock up UFA's Deng and Gordon; both of whom probably won't be re-signed in the windy city. That leaves them with a team built around Captain Kirk, Nocioni, Noah, and...well, Britt had that in his opening paragraph.
I'd definitely add Seattle *because* of Kevin Durrant. Thank God the Wolves didn't move up with the ping-pong balls to get that guy. Being a 6'10" shooter is nice in the Big 12, but it doesn't equal success in the NBA. He may pan out to be a consistent 20ppg kind of guy but he'll need 20-25 shots to do it and he'll go for 30 one night and 10 the next. He has length and a jump shot and that's it. They have a worse point situation than the Wolves and they are equally strapped at the 5 as our favorite team. Outside of maybe Chris Wilcox and Jeff Green there's no one else on that roster you'd really want over their Wolves counterpart. Seattle is a terrible, terrible team that could be moved in the off-season.
Other than that, I agree with the list. If you took away Isiah Thomas and Michael Jordan, I'd remove the Knicks and Bobcats, but you really can't do that.
I'm not sure either way on Durant. On draft day, I was pretty sure that Oden was the better pick, for a lot of the reasons you just said--primarily, the fact that we never saw KG, Kobe, T-Mac, Dwight Howard, or LeBron play in college, so it wasn't as unbelievable as people wanted to believe that he could succeed like that in the watered down world of college hoops. I imagine 18-yr old LeBron would've have averaged something like 28/11/10 in the Big 12, and led his team to a national title. It should also be noted that Durant's team improved upon his departure, and that speaks pretty poorly for him.
However, as much as I'm unsure of Durant as an all-around player, I love Jeff Green and think he's going to be a great complement to Durant's scorer-role. I loved what they did on draft day, getting both of those guys. They, like MN, have plenty of needs to fill.
Knicks salary cap situation is dreadful, and Charlotte has all of those young guys, none of which--(in my opinion)--have Big Al's upside potential. The J-Rich trade was a nice try, but they still struggle to make the playoffs in the East.
The other close call I failed to mention is Memphis, but Rudy Gay probably tips it in their favor.
"It should also be noted that Durant's team improved upon his departure, and that speaks pretty poorly for him."
...exactly. DJ Augustin's performance this year does not speak well of Durrant's time in Austin. On the flip-side, Durrant's AAU teammate is having a similar year at K-State but his game is much more complete and transferable to the NBA.
I completely forgot about Memphis. They have some BAD contracts but they also have Conley and Gay. Boy, that's a tough one; they're right there with the Wolves.
Britt -
Seriously, hope your health is good. Shaddy was down too.
Comparisons (KG-Big Al, etc.) I find demeaning to the players and lazy journalism. Yet comparisons get tossed around so much (MJ and Kobe, LeBron, etc.) just to provide coverage. It ranks right up there with trade rumors.
I kinda like the Jim Pete and Mike post-game exhibit. The high school ballers can learn a few things without having to invest in videos or outside training. Pete's mimicking Big Al's post moves is instructive for the young bigs.
Foye is a natural 2 in my opinion. Still think the 1 is Bassy's to lose, which he will do (to Rose, perhaps) if he doesn't start consistently finishing at the dish. But his overall play is much improved.
Foye and Shaddy are essentially in their second year. Both have incurred major injuries and rehab bouts. There is a serious log jam at the 2 spot (Juric, Foye, Shaddy, GC, and sometimes Brewer). I can't imagine going into next season with that arrangement. You also have Greg Buckner. And, with Juric's contract, he would be very difficult to move.
Surprised they didn't have Doleac in the first game. Gray was feasting on his height advantage over Big Al (backing him down for a hook shot). That stopped very quickly once Doleac matched up with him. Doleac hit his elbow shots which, as you say, was game changing.
The line on the broadcast last night that struck me. From the Chicago media: Last night (the first game) was the injured against the inept. Ouch!
CA--
Astute point about Telfair at the cup. There were at least three and perhaps four times the other night where he couldn't complete the layup. For a point guard with a suspect outside jumper, that's worrisome.
Is there any idea on whether Telfair wants to stay here beyond his current contract? He probably hasn't played his way to a very significant free-agent signing, but I'm sure he's gathered a little bit of interest for the steady play--(besides all things scoring).
I think Bassy could probably be had for a couple of years at 4 mil. But it wouldn't surprise me if he gets better offers. A quick, 23-year-old pass-first PG, who is showing steady improvement in all facets of his game shouldn't want for suiters, especially if he lifts his FG% to .410-.415. He's also a good teammate.
Did you see him cheering for Foye? That's the guy with the inside track on his starting job. Speaking of Foye, I think he may still be a bit gimpy and he looks slow on defense. I would expect more penetration out of somebody being billed as the team's "attack guard". Even when he's playing the point he seems to be passing as a last resort. Hibatchi!
This is a little off topic, but the Lakers just traded for Gasol, and they gave up virtually nothing to get him! Kwame Brown (additon by subraction), Critteron (a dime a dozen player) and two first round picks that will surely be in the low 20s anyway.
The front line for Bryant is now:
C- Bynum
PF- Gasol
SF-Odom (where he is best suited)
Easily the best in the West. IMO, the Lakers are now the front runners in the West for the next few years.
Everybody be honest. I know we like Al Jeff, and I'm sure Memphis had their reasons for trading Gasol for $0.15 on the dollar, but this is looking very much like a David Stern-initiated conspiracy to bring back LA-Boston... maybe Tim Donaghy scandal-provoked? I'm only sort of kidding.
Nice catch, Krush.
Andy G., that's an interesting conspiracy theory. Seems like neither San Antonio or Phoenix can really draw the Nation's interest in June, so why not figure out how to get the Lakers back into the show?
But I'm sure it's just another savvy move by the Memphis brain trust (sans former Laker Jerry West) to follow the Timberwolves example of blowing up your team in quest of a future championship.