Game #19, Road Game #9: Minnesota 88, Washington 101
Season record: 3-16
1. Live By the Boards, Die By the Boards
We're not in Atlanta or Phoenix anymore, Dorothy. After utterly dominating the rebounding against two teams that don't play anyone over 6 feet, 10 inches tall, the Timberwolves were mauled tonight, 57-35, by the bigger, stronger, Wizards frontcourt. Washington essentially did what Minnesota executed on its last two foes, getting 20 of the 45 boards on their offensive glass and 37 of 47 at the defensive end.
The problem is pretty simple. Al Jefferson went off for 32 points and 20 rebounds Saturday against Phoenix. Tonight, Craig Smith had a career high 36 points. But both of these players are indisputably power forwards. Neither is remotely quick enough to play the 3, and neither is really tall and/or strong enough to cope with legitimate NBA centers. Fortunately there aren't that many such centers around, but the Wizards have Brendan Haywood, and that's plenty enough to stymie Jefferson.
The last time the Wolves played Washington on November 16, Theo Ratliff suffered that fateful and mysterious knee injury that may represent his last appearance in a Wolves uniform. At any rate, Jefferson shot 3-6 FG when Ratliff was beside him at center, and 2-10 FG when he himself was forced to play the pivot, usually against the seven-foot, 263-pound Haywood. Tonight, Jefferson shot 5-14 FG and grabbed 7 rebounds. Haywood was 5-9 with 14 rebounds. In the two Washington games, Jefferson has shot a combined 10-30 FG (awful for such a paint-oriented player), has gone 9-10 FT, but has 17 rebounds (3 on the offensive end), zero assists, six turnover and is a combined minus -41 in a combined 75:53 minutes. Haywood is 9-16 FG, just 1-5 FT, but has 25 rebounds, a whopping 12 of them on the offensive end, 2 assists, four turnovers and is a combined plus +28 in a combined 61:02 minutes. The statistics that really count here are Jefferson's shooting percentage and Haywood's offensive rebounds. As was proven with Lakers' Andrew Bynum earlier in the season, Jefferson has a lot of problems jousting with legit centers at both ends of the court. Look at it this way: Tonight the Wolves were minus -23 in the 39:25 Jefferson played, which means they were plus +9 in the 8:35 he was on the bench.
But to be fair to "Big Al," it wasn't just Haywood vs. Jefferson. In a television interview after the game, Wizards guard Antonio Daniels revealed that they watched plenty of tape of Jefferson's monster game against Phoenix on Saturday, and Washington set its gameplan on ensuring Jefferson wouldn't beat them--a significant factor in Smith's breakout performance.
In fact, the subplots on all three front court matchups tonight were fascinating. Could Jefferson handle a big center like Haywood? (No.) Could Craig Smith guard a perimeter-shooting power forward like Antawn Jamison? Well, given that Jamison needed 22 shots to register 22 points (7-22 FG, 2-6 3ptFG, 6-7 FT), and that Smith went off for 36 in just as many FGA, the answer is complicated, and necessarily incomplete. Jamison outrebounded Smith 13-9, and matched him on Smith forte of offensive rebounding (they both grabbed 4), plus chipped in 5 assists to Smith's donut.
The other frontcourt matchup was a reprise of Corey Brewer vs. Caron Butler. After the first Minnesota-Washington game, I cited Butler's manhandling of Brewer as evidence that the rook simply couldn't guard the bigger, stronger small forwards in the league. But tonight Brewer showed continued growth. Butler got 20 points (10-20 FG), 10 reboundsx and 4 assists, but he's been doing that against everybody, especially since Gilbert Arenas went down in mid November. Brewer was much more judicious with his shot selection, going 3-5 FG while registering 9 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists. It could have been worse.
2. Terrific Telfair and Miserable Marko
Jefferson wasn't the only goat of this game. After two or three solid weeks of inspired play, Marko Jaric has a very tough night. There were two crucial tipping points in the game, and Jaric helped swing it toward the Wizards on both occasions. Just 1:21 into the second quarter, Wittman subbed in Jaric for Sebastian Telfair, who'd had a brilliant first quarter with 11 points and 5 assists. The score was tied at 26 with Jaric came back in (he'd sat with 3:38 to play in the first) and was 29-28 Washington when the Wizards brought Deshawn Stevenson in for Antonio Daniels, pretty much ensuring that Jaric instead of Ryan Gomes or Rashad McCants would be on backup point guard Roger Mason much of the time. Mason, an undistinguished 6-5 combo guard, proceeded to score 8 points in less than 2 minutes, boosting Washington's lead to 6. It was 8 when Wittman finally brought Telfair back in alongside Jaric with 3:40 to play in the half, and 10 at the break.
Then, in the 4th quarter, Minnesota had cut an 18 point deficit down to 79-85 with a little more than 8 minutes to play. Once again Jaric was operating in the backcourt without Telfair. This time, Marko bricked two jumpers while the Wizards converted at the other end, kicking the lead back to double digits. One problem was that, in trying to get Jefferson some help in the paint, Wittman was playing the offensively challenged Chris Richard. But the other problem was that Marko could neither get the ball to anybody nor get off a good shot.
Now there are occasions when plus/minus numbers can be misleading, as in merely circumstantial evidence that fingers the wrong culprit or elevates a benign bystander. But check this: In 25:41 tonight, Jaric was a minus -31. In 38:01, Telfair was a minus -1. In the 16:35 they shared the backcourt, the Wolves were minus -18. That means Telfair was plus +17 in the 21:26 he played without Jaric and Marko was minus -13 in the 8:59 he played without Telfair.
For the game, Telfair dropped a dollar's worth of dimes versus only one turnover. He continues to work well with Brewer, assisting on two of the rook's three baskets, and fed Smith three times for hoops in the game's first eight minutes. Whereas Jaric is more inclined to pick up assists either by dumping it into the low post to Jefferson (with whom he has good rapport) or, increasingly, off dribble penetration, Telfair seems more adept as rifling passes inside or operating the quick, bounce-pass pick and roll, which is where he and Smith were particularly effective tonight. Bassy also shot 5-12 FG, further solidifying that plus 40% accuracy. The news today of more rehab time for Randy Foye gives Telfair another toehold on that mountain he is climbing to become a reliable backcourt fixture in the Wolves' rotations. Tonight was another significant step up in that process.
3. Quick Hosannahs and Brickbats
Yes, the Wizards were focusing on Jefferson, but 36 points from anybody at anytime is worth a closer look, eh? Vexing as it is to have Smith duplicate Jefferson's power forward slot, let's dwell instead on what fabulous hands the guy has for such a beefy build. Most of the time he is snagging balls on the move, be it the high pick and roll with Bassy or flashing in from the weak side, or corralling offensive rebounds with people pounding on his back. How often does the Rhino drop a pass? I didn't see it happen tonight, and there were at least a half-dozen tough chances he handled. Second, after shooting just 62.4% from the free throw line last year, and 17-30 FT to begin this season, he is 17-19 FT thus far in December, indicating that either he is in a marvelous groove or has been diligently practicing--probably both. Finally, although the Jamisons and other perimeter guys still will give him trouble, Smith does seem to cover more range this season, without losing the ability to recognize and execute the right rotations down in the paint. In my NBA season preview this season, I said that Craig Smith's potential was overrated. I was wrong.
Rashad McCants had an interesting, mostly positive, night. Joining Antoine Walker as the first guys off the bench with 3:38 to play in the first, Shaddy went nearly 12 minutes (11:58) without an official shot, preferring to emphasize ball movement and moving with or without the ball, drawing fouls and sinking 3 of 4 FTs on his only two attempts. But with 5:24 to play in the 3rd and the Wolves down 16, his resolve weakened, and he jacked up 4 attempts in three minutes, making a trey and then quickly taking a heat check by driving in traffic for a miss, enabling a fast break bucket the other way, following that up with a missed trey and commiting a stupid foul that yielded another pair of points. After that spasm, he settled down, and doled out four assists in the next nine minutes, finishing with 6 dimes and zero turnovers along with 5 rebounds, 8 points and a team high plus +4 in 32:25.
At the same time, color commentator Jim Petersen did a great job of telestrating a play where Shaddy's lackluster perimeter D plus a belated gamble resulted in a rotation scramble and a Wizards slam dunk. It was a superb, teachable moment by J Pete that just happened to come at McCants's expense. Then, in the postgame report, the FoxSports desk, particularly analyst Mike McCollow, openly wondered whether Shaddy's knee was restricting his movement and hurting his ability to get down in his defensive stance and to get back in transition. Frankly, I didn't notice these things, but do think McCants has done too much reaching on defense at times this year. Then again, he did less of it last season--his best defensive year thus far--and that was when his knee was most problematical.
Antoine Walker didn't have it; tried to do too much too soon after returning from ankle problems and hurt the time. Petersen mentioned that the ankle was still bothering him, which prompts the question of why the hell was he playing then--the Wolves have done pretty well with him out of the rotation lately. And the doldrums continue for Ryan Gomes, who clearly was trying to go strong to the hoop with the ball this game instead of settling for jumpers, but his rhythm is still way off and his defense likewise isn't what it was in the preseason or with the Celts a year ago.
Finally, Randy Wittman also didn't distinguish himself in his first game back from back surgery. I understand the dilemma Witt was facing: Jefferson and Jaric were being killed by matchups and both have been warriors both most of the season and in the past few games. Meanwhile, Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair deserved mucho time in the power forward and point guard spots. In 20/20 hindsight, Witt should have bit the bullet and played a legit center next to Smith more often, instead of giving Jeff an ineffective 39:25. And if having Richard or Doleac in the game more often meant more focus on Smith, then swap in Jefferson with a big and see what happens.
More intangibly and yet more obviously, the Wolves didn't seem like they were laying it out full bore for Wittman the way they had for Sichting the past two games. Most likely it was the disadvantageous matchups at work. But Wittman was right to dwell on the lack of effort in his postgame analysis. He just has to hope his presence isn't a factor somehow in the lethargy.
Britt,
I agree with much of your post, but I do not agree that Jefferson should be labeled a "goat". That term belongs exclusively to Wittman. The coach is proving he is in over his head and not exactly the brightest coaching mind around.
For example, Smith-Jefferson PF-C combination can work. As per 82games, the best 5 man unit this season has been Telfair-Jaric-Brewer-Smith-Jefferson, at +19. However, it's not as simple as just putting this combo out there at all times because we have a good plus minus. It's all about matchups.
We know Jefferson can't play C against a guy like Hayward. As you point out, Richardson or Doleac should have been playing C whenever Hayward was in the game. This was the *wrong* game (or at least parts of the game) to use Jeff at center.
Smith and Jefferson can coexist and play together, as long as the coach puts them in a position to succeed. Thus far, Wittman has shown no proclivity for understanding matchups or his own players strengths and weaknesses.
The Wolves play Philly tonight. Dalembert is the type of center that could give Jefferson problems. He's long, strong and has shot blocking ability. I would play Jefferson at PF when Dalembert is in the game. The 15 minutes/game that Dalembert spends on the bench, that's when you can move Jefferson to center (and team him with Smith), as Philly does not have another capable shot blocking center.
If there's a concern about Smith getting his minutes, he can still get 20-30 minutes by playing with Jeff when Dalembert is on the bench, and spelling Jeff at other times.
I also wouldn't be opposed to giving Smith a *few* minutes at SF. I would only do this when Iguodala is out of the game or not playing SF. I know there might be a mismatch when he's guarding a quick SF, but I doubt he'd have a problem with Korver planted outside. Plus, he would create a huge mismatch problem for Philly when the Wolves have the ball.
It's all about matchups . . .
So, we play Jefferson at PF and Doleac/Madsen at C, and lose that game by 30, instead of 14?
Jefferson would have seen triple teams instead of double teams, and you'd cut Rhino's minutes and replace the points he gave us with a few more stops on defense.
Seriously, tell me we'd have won this game by giving Doleac or Madsen more of Rhino's minutes. It doesn't make a damn bit of sense.
You can't spend the whole game making defensive adjustments to the other team. What about our own offense?
Patrick,
What about "our offense"? Jefferson was 5-14, and as Britt astutely pointed out, the team was -23 when Jeff was on the floor. Pretty close to your "30". Jeff was placed in a position to fail.
I've already ripped Jefferson's defensive efforts (lack thereof) today in my earlier comments. Al Jefferson is big enough and athletic enough to not make the Brendan Haywood look like Wilt Chamberlain. I don't care if he's not playing his preferred position, he needs to play defense. This accounts for much of the -23 you site.
As far as our offense...Jefferson took some bad shots, and missed some shots he usually makes. AJ had a bad game and the Wiz did a good job defending him. Do you think more minutes from Doleac or Mad Dog would have remedied his offensive woes last night?
Surprise surprise. Dalembert played above his head and statistical averages (18 points, 11 rebounds, 9 blocks). Jefferson plus/minus is -20. Meanwhile, Chris Richard is +16 in his 16 minutes.
More evidence that Jefferson should play PF unless he is going up against a small ball team like the Suns. Richard should play center.
What is Wittman doing?
I fonly it were so easy to coach based on +/- stats. Cripes, I wish they would get rid of it.
Isn't it obvious that when Jefferson is in the game the best defensive center is also in taking away whatever threat he can. When Jefferson sits, this center gets his chance to rest.
its a good stat, but come on Paul. Use it with a little caution. Especially in the case of Jefferson who is right now the focus of opposing teams defensive efforts.
Of course the plus/minus stat needs to be used with caution. However, caution does not mean you put blinders on and dismiss it. If you watch Jefferson against big centers, it's painfully obvious he does not match up well.
Yes, it is obvious he plays against the best defenseive centers. It is also obvious he is getting crushed by them.
That is my point too, Patrick. Jefferson and Smith seem to be by far the best two big men we have. While a coach needs to keep matchups in mind, sometimes you also have to go with talent. Now if it's offseason, and the question is whether to go with Smith/Jefferson or to add another legit center that's one thing. But if it's now, and the choice is to sit one of Smith/Jefferson down in place of Doleac I might tend to go with talent over matchups more often than not (especially since Jefferson is big enough to play center. The more I look at his size, the more I wonder why he can't?).
Maybe the operative wording should not be "can't", but "doesn't yet" drza44. If Smith and Jefferson are definitely part of the young core for the Wolves, then it would seem that it would be important that one of them learns to operate well against a guy like Heywood for this team to move forward from the cellar. Just check it off as one more thing to look for in terms of development of our young players as the season goes on.
Frankly, when it comes to evaluating the coaching staff right now I am less interested in wins and losses, but to see growth and maturity from the young players on the court. I actually cheer a bit inside when I see Corey make a jumper, hoping that the next one goes in. And when Shaddy sprint dribbled up the floor and passed it off to Corey in the corner for an open jumper I was happy for that fleeting moment too. Of course, shortly thereafter, Shaddy takes a horrible shot on the break, and Corey can't finish a lay-up or the like. However, I guess one hopes the breakdowns become less and less as the season progresses, and we get more consistency from a certain core group of players.
DRZA44,
You invalidated much of your post by admitting he can't play center. I don't go as far as you. I say he can, with the right matchup.
Actually, I think the end of my post is being misunderstood. I wasn't saying that "Jefferson can't play center"...I was saying, "I don't see why he can't play center". In other words, he's big enough, so why couldn't he be our center of the future? Why should he struggle against centers all the time? Maybe it's just that he needs to get used to it, and it sure looks like he's going to get the chance to get used to it if they're going to continue to start Smith..
Glad to see your comments run similar to mine (earlier). Given that today's game is the tail end of a back:back, where Smith played major minutes against the Wiz, it would make sense to cut his minutes back tonight anyway.
The real question is who do you put at center to better match up with Dalembert: Doleac or Richards?
This is an even more insane statement than the one you are agreeing with.
"Thanks for the big game Craig, we like how you're stepping it up lately. Oh by the way, we're cutting your minutes tonight and giving them to Doleac."
That's how great coaches run their teams? And Randy Wittman is an idiot?
oh, I think it is more than match-ups. We still have a team that is wins once every six games. They have not played together that long. They are young and don't, yet have a swagger. They make a lot of mistakes. And, the options at center other than Jefferson right now are Richard, Doleac and Madsen. That is not exactly a lot for any coach to work with to take advantage of match-ups.
The lineup of Telfair, Jaric, Brewer, Smith and Jefferson is promising, but far from perfect. Smith and Jefferson are both talented players whose natural position is the PF spot, but should have the capability to learn to play together over time. The only way for that to happen is to be out there and get exploited sometimes by good competition.
So far, the Wolves have lost 5 games, won a game. Lost 5 games, won a game. lost 5 games, won a game. lost a game. If they can win a game between now and Miami - next Monday the 17 - they will have broken the trend demonstrating some measure of improvement. So far, the Wolves have performed exactly as any rational fan might have expected to begin the season with. Wittman has neither underperformed nor overperformed in his duties. However, up to this point it appears he still has the confidence and the attention of his young squad - including the veterans. Thats endorsement enough for the time being, in my view.
IMO, misuse of your star player equates to under performance.
Not sure I follow yoru second paragraph. They can only learn by getting exploited? Doesn't make sense to me.
Uhm...let me put it this way. Some of us learn from our mistakes. Some of us don't. I think Jefferson and Smith are young and you need to put them out there. This year they are going to make a lot of mistakes and there are times when they will be exploited. Wittman's job is not to win games. His job is to develop talent and prepare for a better future. Jefferson and Smith seem like nice pieces to build around. Doleac and Madsen are not. They are there to help Smith and Jefferson's development. Wittman's job is to put Jefferson and Smith on the floor, match-up problems or not.
I agree we can learn from our mistakes. However, there is a different between being beaten because of a mistake and being *exploited* due to your short comings. Jefferson can't jump and is short for a center. He can't play against certain types of centers. Period. He's not made for playing these types of centers, just as Chris Paul is not made to play PF, though he's a great PG.
Paul,
Some more astute poster than I mentioned Big Als reach being comparable to centers that are taller than him. Remember, Bill Russell was 6'9" and was the 7'1" Wilt Chamberlains number one nemesis on the defensive end. Its not about jumping - its about positioning. The goal is not to get Jefferson exploited, it is to show him the film after he is inevitably exploited by bigger and/or more experienced PF or centers and then teach (coach) him on how to avoid the same mistake next time.
I think (possibly hope - I am an optiomist afterall) Wittman and the coaching staff are doing an adequate job of that at the moment. However, these gains won't be appreciated until way down the line. possibly as late as next year. Although, if we look closely we should see small indications of progress over the season this year.
Andy,
Jefferson has a 7'3" wingspan. Dalembert has a 7'6" wingpan, an added inch or two, plus jumping ability. Jeff is mismatched againt these types of players.
Paul,
Giving up 3" in reach is easy enough to work around. Take the russel Chamberlain example. All I am saying is it is too early to conclude Jefferson can never make up the difference. You might be right, but Wittman is right to continue to explore Jefferson's ceiling and see what he can overcome and what he cannot.
3 inches can't be made up when you can't jump and don't have Russel's incredible timing.
OK,
there you have it. subject closed. . Wittman take note. it has been spoken. Three inches can not be made up with quickness, positioning, intelligence, team defense, fundamentals...
When are you coming out with your book?
I don't think a book would help Wittman.
ah, but your wisdom and argumentation is a benefit to all of us generalizers.
I agree!
As much as I dislike not only Wittman's coaching tactics but his stern, new-sheriff-in-town-II demeanor on the sideline, I don't think this loss really belongs on him. Last year we only had swing men, this year our only two consistent offensive performers play PF. I think it's a legitimate fear that Smith and Jefferson aren't yet heady enough to make the interior pass to the open C when doubled. Without that, you have only your inconsistent perimiter players, and a PF that's being doubled by two bigs. Of course, the only option explored was trying to outscore the Wizards through the mismatch (Smith). Sadly ineffective when you give 20 offensive boards.
In the absence of Foye, who will either be completely out of shape or a world class swimmer when he returns, it's been nice to see Telfair's continued improvement. Without him, KG would have been traded for an excellent offensive power forward with almost no D, a number 30 pick and our first round pick from 2010 or so, depending on when we got out of the bottom five. As it is, I feel as if we have found our backup PG for the future, with Foye in the hot seat (like McCants this year) if we draft a PG. I don't know when Foye will return, but it's beginning to look like his season is in jeapordy.
Circumstantial evidence is not favorable towards Wittman. He is a career loser as a coach. His record is atrocious. His team is not looking good this year so far.
So when he is out for a couple games and his team lights it up, then he returns and his team instantly returns to lethargy, it seems to point towards him being the problem.
I don't really have enough evidence to know if this is just something that looks bad or if it really is bad, but how long do we wait to find out?
Does Wittman return next year if we finish the season with 10 wins?
Is Sichting a hidden talent on our team that we should give a chance?
What is your take on this, Britt?
The "laying it out full bore" comment seemed, to me, the most interesting observation of the entire post. I think it was crucial that we come out with energy and focus - regardless of the matchup issues/difficulties, injuries, travel lethargy, bad hotel food, etc, etc. If nothing else, you have to get your team ready to go, especially knowing there was a possibility of a letdown after an emotional win. Maybe it's natural for players to step it up for an interim coach, and then lapse back into bad habits for the regular coach. But to me, that's a coaching issue. Or problem.
I agree that maintaining the Jefferson-Haywood match up instead of using Doleac or Richards was a mistake by Witt. You had called this out from the previous Wizards encounter and it was quite evident again last evening.
I'm not ready to label Jefferson's effort in the "goat" category based on the caveats you described. At least 2 of the 5 Jefferson makes were from outside the paint, good for expanding his game but also an indication of how the Wizards played him inside.
I give major kudos to Eddie George for how the Wizards defended the Twolves. Their team is really stepping up in Agent 0's absence. But Nic Young had a horrid game given all his potential.
It will be interesting to see how the Twolves play tonight against the Sixers. Will they bounce back after playing heavy minutes or fold early?
It almost felt like Wittman's hand was forced a bit with the lineup. After the Telfair, Jaric, Brewer, Smith, Jefferson lineup worked so well against teams without true centers, he was in a damned-if-he-did-damned-if-he-didn't situation with the Wizards. If he monkeys with the line up and they lose, he takes heat for messing up the good thing that Sichting had going. If he doesn't monkey with the line up, they lose because they are over matched at the phone booth in Chinatown against a physical DC squad.
The Wolves will be somewhat competitive as long as Jefferson doesn't have to monkey with a true center...especially on the defensive boards. If they give a good effort tonight, they should match up ok against the 76ers. Reggie Evans and Samuel Dalembert are nothing to get too afraid of and they're not horrible mismatches like Hayward and Jamison. The interesting match up tonight will be Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala vs. Jaric/Telfair and Brewer. Also, look for Korver to come off the bench and kill us with 3s. The Wolves' perimeter d has been god awful for the past few games and Korver (go Creighton!!!) is one of the league's best shooters.
As Britt noted, I do think the Wolves have a bit of a problem with Smith and Jefferson on the court at the same time. Smith is a black hole and unless they adjust their offense to some sort of high double post, it's going to be one or the other each time down the court...not a lot of team work, little passing, and defenses collapsing on either guy, knowing full well that there's little-to-no threat of a kick out or cutter in the lane. Speaking of that, I'm still waiting for Brewer to slash in the lane while Big Al or Smith have it on the post. He just sits wide open (thanks to 30% shooting) on the perimeter. At least he could dart through the lane once and a while. I understand that this opens up his transition d and rebounding, but my god, everyone knows what's going to happen when Smith/Big Al get the ball.
More than anything, I think this game futher exposed AJ's lackluster man on man D. He's not giving up that much size to a Haywood. But not bodying up a center is different than not bodying up a PF...you are much more likely to get dunked on.
How many times have we seen AJ watching the ball while his man rotates to the hoop for the easy slam?
Throwing another big guy out there helps to compensate for Al's defensive lapses, but playing Mad Dog, Doleac or Richard (none of which can score) means that we increase the probability that Al gets double teamed on the other end.
1. I love Corey Brewer. Imagine when he starts to hit that open 3 and jumper with consistency! He's already a solid passer and great at getting the ball up the court quickly. He also had 9 rebounds while big Al only had seven.
2. There is no excuse for how Haywood would just muscle away rebounds from both Richard and Jefferson down low. The Wizards also picked up too many loose balls last night. Not enough hustle by the T-wolves.
3. If Wittman is worried about taking heat for tinkering with Sichting's lineup, he should be immediately fired. Wittman has the endorsement of management, he should coach how he wants to coach. Fear of messing with a good thing is not a good excuse for not altering the line up.
4. Craig Smith should be a black hole. No one double teams him and he's pretty good at taking his man to the basket with high percentage shots. If he keeps scoring 20 plus points a game the double teams will come and then he can learn not to be a black hole. But when teams are double teaming big Al as soon as he gets the ball (which Washington did most of the night) Craig needs to be a ball hog.
5. I don't even think a solid jump shot would have helped Jefferson on offense last night. The Wiz always had the guard coming down to double as soon as Al received the pass. He needed to get the ball back out immediately instead of sometimes dribbling (only to be stripped by Daniels) or sometimes just waiting. A quick kick out by Al should have led to
a) An open jumper for Telfair (can he make it?)
b) a drive to the hoop by the guard and possibly a dish back to Big Al.
A few thoughts.
1) These On-the-Ball slots continue to be the best daily basketball analysis that I see from any source on any team. Good job Mr. Robson. (Although the way that the site orders the replies can be pretty confusing...linear may have been better).
2) The Big Al/Craig Smith situation is a conundrum because they are obviously our two best big men but they also both prefer to play PF. The thing is, though, Al is 6'10, 260 pounds and had a 9'2 standing reach straight outta high school (and he could have even grown since then). Most players with a 9'0 or higher standing reach are able to play center (By comparison Chris Kaman's standing reach is 9'2.5, almost the same as Big Al). If it becomes clear that Smith is a legitimate, starting caliber PF (he's not there yet, but it looks like he could get there) then perhaps Big Al might really need to spend more time learning how to use his size against the big boys.
3) You make the point/comparison of Telfair vs. Jaric in the +/- category, but for last night I think McCants really needed to be involved as well since it was pretty much a 3-man rotation and in both halves McCants initially subbed directly for Jaric. In the first half the team was -8 with Jaric and Telfair, +6 with McCants and Telfair, and -8 with McCants and Jaric. In the second half it was -10 for Jaric/Telfair, +11 for McCants/Telfair, and -5 for Jaric/McCants. For one game only, it was obvious that McCans and Telfair were both net positives but that neither could overcome the negative of Jaric when paired with him.
As the driver of the official Craig Smith bandwagon I have to let people know there is limited seating available. Craig was beastly last night, he will soon require a double team. He was so decisive with his action. While Jefferson held the ball waiting for the double, Craig caught the ball and went to his move immediately. Just too strong and quick for single coverage, creating space with his wide body to get off the baby hook over larger defenders. Truly great post play.
Another great night for Bassy. I thought he would be a defensive liability but his play on D has been pretty solid (the highlight being ripping Nash and going in for the layup). He looks like a true PG out there, and I've been impressed throughout the season. It's also fun to yell Through the Fire everytime he does something well.
Will Randy Foye play for an extended period this year or do we have a Liriano situation on our hands?
Also about Craig Smith, while he DOESN'T often pass out of the post (like Al) I think he actualy COULD pass out of the post if the offense calls for it. In college, Smith was used to getting doubled and tripled and routinely would have games with 5+ assists as he passed to the open teammate. If it gets to the point where teams start giving him more defensive attention, I think that Smith would be able to hit the cutter (maybe Brewer?) for some easy shots.
If Rhino is a black hole, he's a black hole that rarely takes a bad shot, shoots an extremely high percentage, and often rebounds his own (rare) misses. I'll take that kind of "black hole" any day.
A few things about Smith.
1- His high FG% isn't quite as impressive if you factor in 3's and opponents' effective FG%.
2- 3 assists in 18 games simply isn't going to cut it at any position.
3- Smith isn't quite as polished vis-a-vis Jefferson at the 4 when it comes to defending opponents. Smith has a player efficiency rating of 19.7 at the 4 and 17.9 at the 5. His opponents go for 23.8 and 16.1. Jefferson, on the other hand, goes for 24.4/22.7 with an opponent rating of 15.1/21.1. In other words, when Jefferson plays at the 4, he has a 9.4 advantage at the 4 (essentially rendering each opponent to NBA averages) compared to Smith being outmanned with a negative 4.1. Jefferson is such a good player that despite his problems with legitimate centers, he still comes out on top in terms of overall production. Interestingly enough, Smith has a better opponent ration at the 5 than he does at the 4. If you look further into the numbers, especially the rebounding ones, Jefferson needs help on the defensive boards more than anything else. Smith is a really solid offensive rebounder, but he's not pulling his weight on the defensive end and it's really evident when both he and Jefferson are on the court together.
Smith isn't going to have too many more 30 point games. It's not that hard for opponents to rotate defensive coverage on the post if both Smith and Jefferson are not good passers and if Telfair and Brewer are not threats to score from the perimeter or slash. Furthermore, on the defensive side of the court, Smith walks a very fine line between dishing out more than he takes. Rebounding wise, he's getting about 2 1/2 boards per game on the offensive and defensive ends. If you stretch his stats to 40 mpg, he's getting 9 boards a game with roughly 4/5 on each end. Compare that to Big Al's 12/40 minutes with 8 of those on the defensive end and you can see why having both of those guys on the court at the same time can result in some defensive rebounding imbalances...especially with your big frontcourts of the world.
Of course, all of this being said, there's not a single top 10 five man rotation without Smith in it. Part of the problem is that despite the chemistry issues (esp with defensive rebounding) with Smith and Jefferson, they're two of the Wolves' top 3 or 4 players. A case could very easily be made that Smith is the 2nd best player on the team...even with Marko playing like he is. In fact, it's getting harder and harder to ignore Smith as the 2nd best player on the team:
http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2008/Timberwolves.htm
How about this rotation: Telfair, Brewer, Smith, Jefferson, Doleac/Madsen? Could smith hang with Caron Butler? Andre Iguodala? It couldn't hurt to try it.
What are some classic double post offenses that have worked in the NBA? It would be interesting to find what sort of team had a similar set up in the past and what sort of offense they ran. I can think of a college team that did it: George Mason during their Final Four run. Any other ideas?