Game #21, Home Game #11: Seattle 99, Minnesota 88
Game #22, Road Game #11: Minnesota 92, Milwaukee 95
Season record: 3-19
1. Draw Straws, Flip A Coin, Plug a Leak. Or Not.
After the Timberwolves fell to the equally young Seattle Supersonics at Target Center Friday night, I asked coach Randy Wittman if he had any sense of what he could expect from his team from game to game. "It feels like sometime you plug one hole and then another one leaks," Witt conceded.
After another pratfall against a mediocre opponent Saturday night in Milwaukee, on-the-spot television analysts Jim Petersen and Mike McCollow were voicing similar frustrations. There simply is no consistency, at least as it relates to quality control and some semblance of reliability, on this ballclub. Praise or criticize any member of the team and you're liable to look foolish within a game or two. Every week seems to contain different goats, players who were valiant heroes during the previous week's losing cause. At the same time, guys you were discounting for their ineptitude suddenly show a pulse and make their case for being included back in the mix. Meanwhile, the losing continues.
So sure, for what it's worth, we can perform an autopsy on the past two games. Seattle's zone defense totally bewildered the Wolves on Friday, especially Marko Jaric and Al Jefferson. Jaric had three of the team's 8 turnovers in a 4 and a half minute span early in the third quarter that initiated a tumble from a five point lead (50-45 with 10:40 to play in the third) to a 14 point deficit (55-69 at 3:52 of the period). And once Jefferson was able to get the feed from the perimeter, he seemed to wait before making his moves, the absolutely wrong way to attack a zone.
The next night, Michael Redd toyed with Corey Brewer at one end of the floor while Marko Jaric and the rest of the Wolves were unable to take advantage of Redd's notoriously porous defense at the other end until it was too late. The stats will show that the Bucks shot 43% both overall and from beyond the arc, but that is factoring in the horseshit performance of Milwaukee's bench, which bricked 14 of 15 shots, including all half-dozen treys. The Bucks starters were better than 50% from the field (32-62), and, led by Redd, a gaudy 60% from trey-ville (9-15).
What a weird game. The Chinese rookie Yi and Craig Smith took turns embarrassing the other's defense, with Yi finishing with a career-high 22 points on 9-14 FG, while Smith went off for 30 for the second time in 4 games--and a night after he scored just 3--on 12-17 FG. Combined with Al Jefferson's 11-19, that gave the Jeff-Rhino tandem 23-36 FG, yet during the 26:32 the pair were on the court together, Milwaukee scored exactly as many points as the Wolves. Jaric attempted 3 shots and registered one lousy point in 34:58, during which the Wolves were minus -16. Brewer built the Taj Mahal out of bricks, going 2-13 FG.
Smith had 12 in the first and 14 in the third. Ryan Gomes had a dozen in the second. Jefferson had 13 in the 4th and McCants chipped in another 12. And yet the Wolves hadn't cracked the 90 point mark until McCants threw in a meaningless trey at the buzzer.
I'm not going to pretend to know what it all means.
Or, better yet, for the sake of sport, I'll pretend I do.
2. Foolhardy Analysis
It probably isn't a good idea to issue prescriptions for any team as constantly in flux as the Wolves, seemingly duty-bound to flummox logical examination. But what else are we going to talk about; the fact that FoxSports can't sell ads for its telecasts and are thus giving us commercial-free halftime reports?
If I were god, or perhaps just Randy Wittman, I'd avoid matching Al Jefferson up with legitimate centers whenever possible. If you go to the 82games.com website, click on Minnesota Timberwolves, and look at their Individual Player Floortime Statistics, you will see that, through December 15, the team's top three plus/minus performers per 48 minutes are, in order, Chris Richard, Mark Madsen and Theo Ratliff. And you will see that, aside from the hapless Gerald Green and Greg Buckner (BTW, wouldn't Trenton Hassell have looked fine guarding Michael Redd last night?), the two worst plus/minus Timberwolves per 48 are Craig Smith and Al Jefferson. Now, unless you think that Richard, Madsen and Ratliff are an indomitable trio and the Jeff-Rhino duo are rancid mincemeat, it would appear putting a legit center on the court beside Jefferson (or Smith) is a better idea than turning Jefferson and Smith into a frontcourt mismatch. Against relative bantamweight front lines such as those deployed by Atlanta and Phoenix, Jeff-Rhino is a formidable combo. But otherwise, eh, have you seen Chris Richard play the past couple of weeks? The dude is just 13 months younger than Craig Smith, and actually a month older than Jefferson, and arguably has learned the game as well playing for Florida's Billy Donovan as Smith and Jeff have under the likes of Doc Rivers and Randy Wittman. And if Richard comes up a cropper, well, there's Mad Dog and the Pale Rider, and maybe even Theo once the crocuses start to bloom.
In the backcourt, while we all Wait For Foye with bated breath, it is time to put Marko Jaric and Rashad McCants in direct competition for the off-guard position. Both players possess beguiling strengths and crippling weaknesses in their respective games; both are maddeningly inconsistent, and both seemingly need perpetual outside motivation. To some extent, Wittman is already doing this on a more subtle level. The year's most pleasant surprise thus far, Sebastian Telfair has earned the starter's position and, at least until Foye returns, starter's minutes. I'd continue starting Jaric beside Bassy, but deploy a quicker hook as soon as the need for McCants's perimeter scoring prowess becomes manifest.
Too often on a bad team, you wish you could combine the best attributes of two incomplete players into a single dynamite package. So it is with McCants and the offensive instincts of Corey Brewer. One could argue that McCants' biggest weakness is that he seems to play only when he wants to--allegations of his selfish and inconsistent play have dogged him ever since Chapel Hill in college, and he's done little to diminish them during his tenure here. Yet there have been recent signs of McCants getting the message: He's cut down on his turnovers and begun to move his feet more on defense. But a flaw in Shaddy's game that is seemingly beyond his control is finding a way to regulate his offense in the normal flow of team play. Put simply, McCants usually performs as if he's constantly looking for his shot or constantly, very consciously, trying to enable others--there's no middle ground. His natural tendency is to go for his. The fact that he can be an effective teammate in terms of sharing the ball and fostering a flow attests to his court vision and basketball intelligence. The problem is that there seems to be no blend between the sharing Shaddy and the dynamic scoring Shaddy. Compare that with Brewer, who almost always plays within the flow of the game. Nearly every shot Brewer attempts is a "good" shot on paper, in that he is usually unguarded and set in position when he lets fly...which makes his putrid FG% even more of a concern.
In any case, after subbing in McCants for Marko, I'd leave him in for as long as either the sharing Shaddy or the shooting Shaddy is paying dividends, and yank him when the doldrums of either behavior are apparent. Maybe he can figure it out. But I think it is fair to say that the potential upside of McCants is much greater than that of Jaric, and fills more of a need among the team's current personnel. On the other hand, Jaric has shown enough positive flashes, and has at the very least gilded a path for Telfair to gain some rhythm and confidence, to earn good minutes as McCants's foil. And if he beats out Shaddy fair and square, more power to him.
At the small forward slot, the job should be Brewer's regardless of whether or not Gomes is outplaying him. The reasons for this are plentiful: Gomes's expiring contract, Brewer's hefty upside, the pace and synergy Brewer can put into the game, the way he already has established a rapport with Telfair and Richard (two guys I'd be starting right now), and the flashes of glue-guy brilliance Brewer has demonstrated via rebounding, defense, and blocked shots. All that said, Brewer needs to stop shooting quite as much. Yes, as I just said, they're "good" shots--for most everybody but Brewer. And while you don't want to suffocate what are clearly well-refined basketball instincts in this precocious rook, the idea of banging the ball down inside to Jefferson--especially Jefferson versus a power forward--needs to be more firmly established. Or, when McCants is on the floor, feeding the Dying To Be Loved dude. Because bad shots from McCants are more likely to go in than good ones from Brewer.
Off the bench, I think you have to reward the attitude of Antoine Walker, who has tamped down his pride and sucked up his resolve in order to be a positive influence on this ballclub. Right now Wittman is giving 'Toine nearly all of his minutes at power forward. Since Walker ah, doesn't defend the 4s very well, what about giving him some burn at the other forward spot? Specifically, I'd like to see what a lineup comprised of Richard and either Jefferson or Smith at the 4, with Walker, Jaric and Telfair on the perimeter, could do. That's a long unit with the ability to penetrate, bomb from outside and own the boards--and, if Richard and Jaric are playing the roles, isn't going to be embarrassed too much on defense.
To sum up then, against teams with a legit center, start Richard alongside Jefferson and Brewer up front (Smith in for Richard if the frontcourt opponents are small enough). Teams may still guard Jefferson with a big, but hopefully Richard's defense will overcompensate at the other end. (Only Buckner has a worse opponents-scoring per 48 figure than Smith, both because Craig has difficulty defending good 4s and because Jefferson doesn't defend centers well at all.) Keep giving Brewer 32-40 minutes a game at the small forward slot, and give Walker, and--if fouls and other factors intervene--Gomes the remainder. Set up a backcourt rotation among Telfair, Jaric and McCants, and if McCants and one of the others isn't playing well, consider kicking Brewer into the backcourt for brief stints and giving Gomes or Walker a little more burn. Green, and to a lesser extent Buckner, are emergency or garbage time subs only.
3. Wittman On Parole
Randy Wittman is having a better year on the sidelines than last season's macabre performance in which he reigned over a horror show that even sapped the seemingly inexhaustible enthusiasm of Kevin Garnett. Having just admitted that this ballclub is incredibly unpredictible and inconsistent, it is difficult for me to "blame" Wittman for the squad's 3-19 mark thus far, particularly with Foye and Ratliff logging a combined 161 minutes out of the 5280 that were available. Others are more confident castigating Witt, specifically because he can't generate any positive momentum or patterns with this squad. It's a chicken-or-egg situation. But if it continues throughout the season, and especially when (if?) Foye returns, the egg will be on Wittman's face.
While giving Wittman the benefit of the doubt, however, the doubts are growing. Unfortunately for Witt, the team seemed to start gelling in the three games Jerry Sichting roamed the sidelines, and little things that Sichting implemented--like resting Jefferson near the end of the third rather than the beginning or middle of the 4th quarter--Wittman has belatedly adopted. Some of this may be political, always an underrated hazard that most any coach not named Jackson, Riley, or Popovich must encounter. By contract and every other way imaginable, Wittman's bosses in the front office, Kevin McHale and Glen Taylor, have planted a wet kiss on Al Jefferson and anointed him the cornerstone of the future. So when the game is on the line, Wittman has to think twice about running a pair of plays that both result in Jaric sinking layups, which is what Sichting called, using the element of surprise to his advantage, in Atlanta. And maybe Jefferson not getting his number called in Atlanta helps explain his shout-out of support for Wittman after he destroyed Amare Stoudemire the very next game. At the very least, Wittman was far more likely to draw up a play that had Jefferson going against Samuel Dalembert--and getting lunched for the fifth time in the game--in the final minute of a loss to Philly.
Then there is the question of demeanor. A disciple of Bobby Knight, Wittman isn't usually one to cloak his ire, or even disgust, as the Wolves are floundering. His sideline antics were blatant during the collapse versus Seattle on Friday, complete with quick hooks for lapses in concentration, tongue-lashings for players coming to the sidelines, and all manner of winces and frustrated body-spins and mutterings to himself. This would all be forgiveable, not to mention understandable, if the Wolves responded by righting the ship and learning from the tough love. Instead, Wittman's second quarter tantrums merely led to more cluelessness and less hope and enthusiasm on the part of his troops as they gift-wrapped the victory ofr the Sonics in that fateful third quarter pratfall.
The bottom line is that Randy Wittman has a record of 15-51 as head coach of the Timberwolves thus far. That's close to Jimmy Rodgers territory--a chilly outpost indeed. The excuse of Foye's injury will buy some time. But if the Wolves continue to play at an 11-win pace for the rest of the season, even as Kevin Garnett angles for a second MVP Award, the revenue streams for this stumbling franchise will increasingly run dry. And that, more than anything else, is what makes heads roll.
I'm going to make a far-fetched argument for keeping Wittman. I think he is a talisman. He's our good luck stone.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he coach for Cleveland right before they drafted Lebron. Whatever his role was for Cleveland leading up to that draft the Wolves should give Wittman, so we can score a franchise-saving player this spring. We need good luck and Wittman has the track record. Don't mess with a good thing.
With all that said, I agree with anyone's coaching strategy for these Wolves. Try it. It can't get any worse. Except if they win tonight they still break the trend of 5 losses then one win and we can point to something saying Wittman has this team on a developing track -albeit, an extremely slow one.
From Josh Howard, Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy (guys we passed on, missed the boat on), to Rick Rickert, et al. (guys we didn't pass on) ... if Wittman goes, McHale should be flogged. Yes, the team is in disarray and has had injuries. But is this team really as bad as this? (Despite the fact that the ex-Celts couldn't win with Paul Pierce.) Maybe so. But I don't think the coach has been able to adjust his "style" to the reality of the hand he was dealt.
I understand that Britt does not want to overtly call for Wittman's head since it is the man's job we are talking about, but the facts don't look good. Wittman's record in the NBA is pretty shocking. Only Glenn Taylor can accept performances this bad with a smile on his face. It makes sense though. If Taylor likes how McHale runs the front office, then he must be tickled pink by Wittman's skills as head coach. You have to wonder if Taylor hates Minnesota. I can't see what else would make sense.
As for next year, we are going to get a high pick or two in a good draft. We have the money to land some big free agents if we choose. What I don't want to see is Wittman and McHale around when we start the rebuilding process.
We aren't rebuilding right now. We are still going down. We are getting worse as a team and we have not reached bottom.
Next year when we start over it could be good to have a new GM and a new Coach to go with our new stars. Maybe some new uniforms too.
And yes, I am already looking to next year. What is there to look at this year?
Let's call a spade a spade here....
This isn't the NFL, where days and weeks of planning can go down the toilet because of a lack of execution on a couple of plays. This is the NBA where coaches have much more control over their team's rotations, style and pace of play, and ultimately its success. Thus, I have a problem with a head coach who has followed up 12-and-30 with 3-and-19, yet seems to have kept his job solely because of an injury to a player for whom we have capable replacements.
I realize that Don Nelson or Pop or Phil Jackson (or even D'antoni) aren't jumping their ships for the tundra, however it's a sad state of affairs when a jounalist (albeit a very good one) such as Britt would make an immediate and drastic improvement over what we have right now. In today's game X's and O's mean less than getting the correct players on the floor (see: Phoenix, Golden State). Britt has a better understanding of our personnel than Coach Wittman, as evidenced by Three-pointer after Three-pointer showing his work and clamoring for more play out of our bigs and Toine. If we're going to be a big, physical team let's be a big, physical team.
Britt for head coach. Who's coming with me?
Although Britt would give the interviews we've always wanted from a coach, I wouldn't wish this team on anyone... and I don't think any of the alternatives are attractive on this team. It would be nice to get Jefferson playing at the four, but do we really believe that playing Richard is going to lead to that many victories, especially since it puts Smith on the bench?
Even if I don't like Wittman's demeanor, that doesn't mean this can be pinned on him. It turns out that we actually have more talent than we assumed coming out of the Boston trade. We all thought Telfair was done, and knew the rest were studs. Even Gomes, who has disappointed, was expected to do better on a better team, and as stinky as the Celtics were last year, they were much better than this years wolves. Which player, Foye, McCants or Smith, was the improvement over Paul Pierce? Or was it going to be coaching?
The fact is, the Garnett trade got us something more important than Jefferson and our pick back. The KG trade got us into a spot where, if we are lucky, we can pick either Rose or Mayo and the U Conn goon Thabeet, or the Greek at Ohio with perhaps Augustin later on.
Which, with my obvious enjoyment of the college game, brings me to the point of another writer-- enjoy the product at the barn. They are what we hoped the wolves would be. That is, an overmatched squad that understands if they can't win with talent, then they can be competitive by sweat.
Wow! I actually think the reverse of the NBA vs. the NFL. In the NBA it is the players that really have to make the right reads and the right plays on the fly, it is much more a reactive type of game then the NFL. In the NFL coaches even get to tell the quarterback the play through the helmets.
As for rotations and our SG position- don't we have two guys who are Dying to Be Loved? Marko has always seemed to shrink when he is given tough love by anyone- which may be why the histrionics in the 2nd quarter against the Sonics resulted in a worse 3rd quarter. As for Shaddy, there is a reason why people said they majored in "McCants studies" at UNC. I have watched the kid go through the chucker Shaddy, sharing Shaddy thing as well- and he can't seem to figure out how to switch between the two. I have jokingly said he needs a shock collar to get him to either share when he should, or shoot when he should.
I do agree if the losing continues that something may be needed to be done, if only to quell the increasingly strident and unhappy fans.
I never would have thought it possible. A team that makes the days of Marv, Harv and Bob Stein look decent.
The really, really cool thing about lowering the bar the way this club has is that any small run--3 to 5 games, tops--will generate enough optimism for folks to retain their jobs. The reality is however, is that the actual job of rebuilding is being done in places like Seattle...er, Oklahoma City, or wherever they land. Kevin Durant looks to be pretty special after roughly two months in the league, whereas Big Al looks to be above average in his fourth year. Of course, this is Lake Wobegon territory, so above average is just about right.
The bottom line is if you really want to see a plucky, under-talented club develop, head to Williams Arena. The Gophers won't probably win much in their regular season either, but you'll see a well coached team play hard, and because they have a great coach, they might be better than advertised. That enables an organization to sell hope for the future.
It is a shame that the Wolves' two best players are 4s - not that I'm a huge Sebby fan (though I agree he's played nicely), but I've found myself wondering if that, if all things are equal, they should draft a 5 instead of a 1.
In any event, couldn't agree more with not bunching AJ & Rhino against anything other than the obvious matchup teams.
I have not hung in there to the end of many Wolves games this year, but what I've seen of Shaddy is horrible - I certainly don't mind the bombing, but doing it out of the flow of the offense sucks! Bad shots, bad percentage, and the Wolves' worst trait is not their passing - Rashad can get better shots in a true inside-out game. (Kudos to AJ for showing some passing-game improvement, though he still holds onto the ball too often.)
Speaking of Gomes' impending freedom, what are the Wolves' rights to Craig Smith? I believe he, like Gomes, is unsigned next year. I'd love to keep him, but don't want to overpay, so I wonder about the trade bait possibilities here. If he was signed for the right price, I'd love to keep him, but Jeff's presence makes him more expendable than his ability would indicate.
Walker has an incredibly good attitude for this basketball-team-in-waiting franchise. It has been difficult watching him limp through recent outings, so it was good to see him out of uniform in recent games. Once fully recovered, which may coincide with the arrival of Foye, the audition can take place in earnest.
Bassy has been the pleasant surprise of the season. Besides being a major asset, it is truly a wonderful story: the kid from Coney Island lives his potential. His occasional youthful mistakes are more than offset with sprints to the hole (versus the bigs) and in the lane bounce passes.
Since this is an audition year anyway, I agree that Richards should get major ticks. He wouldn't hurt you and contributes in immeasurable ways.
As for coach, Witt is a 3-19 coach coaching a 3-19 team. The team will eventually improve the caliber of its play, but I question Witt's ability to ever coach above 3-19. We feel your (back) pain coach, but for fans the pain is a little lower.
I was already waiting for your next post for this.
I for one think Witt is about out of time. I really don't think he's bringing anything positive and I think inconsistency could be a lot better with a different coach...
The fact alone we won against (a tired) Phoenix under a different coach .. it might be coincidence..
I'm also not getting why Richard isn't starting or getting more minutes. Since we don't have stars we need to make a finely tuned team. Not just the most talent available, regardless of who the other guys on the floor are.
For the first time this season, Friday's game got me thinking about how much better this team would have been with KG. Brewer, McCants, Rhino, Richard, Walker, KG....that may not be an elite team, but I think we could have solidly made the playoffs, and it would have been a big improvement over last year's squad. Oh well, the Ticket is gone.
This is probably a good time to remind ourselves that EVERYONE picked the Wolves to finish last. Three to four more wins would be nice, and should have been achievable at this point, but we are not dramatically underperforming the expectations of neutral observers.
As fans, we want and expect more, but realistically, we could find the perfect rotation, make all the right decisions, and this team would still be among the worst in the league. Patience my friends...patience.
There is very little to latch onto right now. The only narrative arc I can discern is: lose five win one. That ain't no bestseller.
P.J. vesus Witt: Both teams export their franchise player to Boston. Both teams go young and start over. We can argue who started this season with a better foundation - a front office factor - but for the moment let's not.
Friday night Wolves play as good a first as they have - up 26-11. P.J. makes a significant adjustment (move to zone). First off, he identifies a problem. Second, he identifies a way to overcome the problem. Third, he has sufficiently prepared (another word for this is "coached") his players to successfully implement his chosen strategy. Result: a 2nd and 3rd quarter blowout that locks up another win for Seattle.
PJ was available two seasons ago (McHale's first choice at the time). PJ was available this season and Seattle snapped him up. My biggest concern coming into this season was Wittman's capacity to win in this league and Wittman's ability to bring along a young team. The man has shown me nothing to mitigate my pre-season concerns.
On a more positive note, our 2007 draft choices are looking better and better. Whether its due to his development or simply the lack of intra-team competition for good performance, Brewer should be starting and playing major minutes and the season is only six weeks old.
I'm wrong plenty, but like a even a stopped clock, I can get it right twice a day. Wittman does not have what it takes, Brewer does.