Home Game #4: Washington 105, Minnesota 89
Home Game #5: Washington 100, Minnesota 82
Season Record: 1-7
1. Swingman Glut Exposes Brewer
There are a dozen ways to explain how the Minnesota Timberwolves posted their worst six-quarter stretch of the young season this weekend, a trudge of ineptitude that lasted from the second half of the loss to the Wizards on Friday to last night's thoroughly desultory performance against the Hornets. Like the apocryphal blind men with the elephant, descriptions of all the individual, isolated flaws would be woefully incomplete yet partially accurate, and, if stitched together, would yield of realistic composite of what the thing is. In this case, the thing is a pretty sorry basketball team: Too young, with insufficient talent, comprised of mismatched pieces and not enough pegs.
Al Jefferson is a peg. You can plant him at power forward and he'll batten down one-fifth of a quality, perhaps championship-caliber, starting lineup. The rest of the roster? Nobody really knows, including coach Randy Wittman, who may be more confused about his ballclub today than he was at the beginning of the season.
One of the reasons the Wolves, and by extension personnel guy Kevin McHale, became such a laughing stock was due to the lopsided configuration of position players: Nearly everyone was either an off-guard or a small forward. One of the things lost during the hubbub over the Garnett trade and the boatload of new faces arriving for the cull-and-keep process of rebuilding was that this year's team likewise is jam-packed with swingmen, scrabbling over each other for minutes like crabs in a bucket.
Let's get specific. By dint of his 33-point explosion in the Wolves sole win last week versus Sacramento, Rashad McCants laid a pretty sizable claim on the off-guard spot. If Minnesota is to win, or even avoid being blown out against the better teams in the league, they need a legit perimeter scoring threat to complement Jefferson down in the low block; especially if that guy can also get to the rim and draw fouls off the dribble. McCant is far and away the most obvious candidate to fill that niche.
But then there is also Corey Brewer, whose perimeter scoring is, to put it kindly, suspect, but who dogs people on defense, scrambles for loose balls, hits the glass with a daredevil's impetuous focus, and is a coachable, mentally mature kid almost certain to improve dramatically with experience. Brewer, too, is a swingman. At 6-9, it's reasonable to assume his best position will be small forward someday, but at 185 pounds, someday is not today, or tomorrow, or most any other time this season. Only one player on the entire Wolves roster is lighter than Brewer; Sebastian Telfair, spots him ten pounds--but is nine inches shorter. McCants is 25 pounds heavier than Brewer. Ryan Gomes, who is currently splitting the small forward spot with Brewer, is 65 pounds heavier.
It's reasonable to expect Brewer to bulk up at least a little over the next year or two. Looking strictly at the current roster and telescoping a likely 2009 starting lineup would put McCants at the 2 and Brewer at the 3. Consequently, Wittman is force-feeding Brewer at the 3 despite the fact that Brewer's legs look like popsicle sticks from the knees down and he lacks the upper body to compensate. The alternative is to rob minutes from McCants, or steady vet Greg Buckner (Gerald Green is already a casualty). And when Randy Foye returns, he'll bump Marko Jaric into the 2-and-3 fray in addition to claiming a few off-guard minutes himself.
That's the long-winded explanation for why Corey Brewer found himself a boy among men while trying to guard small forwards Caron Butler (6-7, 228) and Peja Stojakovic (6-10, 229) over the weekend. Butler scorched Brewer for 18 points (6-7 FG, 6-8 FT) in the 22:51 Brewer was trying to guard him. By contrast, Butler had a respectable but hardly dominant 11 points (5-9 FG, 1-1 3pts, 0-0 FT) in the 23:22 Gomes played him. When it was mentioned to Witt after the game that Butler might have been a bit much for the rook to handle, the coach wouldn't hear it, noting Butler is averaging better than 20 points per game. "He's been doing that to everybody," Wittman claimed. Uh, not 85% shooting from the field and more than 16 free throw attempts per 48 minutes (his totals against Brewer) en route to a season-high 29 points.
The next night, with Theo Ratliff out with a troublesome, sore right knee, Wittman upped the ante. Against the tall and rangy New Orleans front line, he could have started banger Michael Doleac on Tyson Chandler, kept Jefferson at the power forward to go against David West, and set Gomes on Peja. Nope. Jefferson slid over to the pivot opposite Chandler, Antoine Walker was tossed in against West, and Brewer started over Gomes versus Peja.
Well, all things considered, Jefferson and 'Toine held their own. But at the end of the first quarter, Peja had 15 points, boosting the Hornets to a 25-21 lead. For the game, Peja finished with 20 points (8-13 FG, 4-6 3pt) in 21:50 against Brewer, and 2 points (1-3 FG) in 6:51 against Gomes. And although Brewer did chip in 6 rebounds and 3 assists, he was scoreless for the game (Gomes had 12 in 26:10).
Is playing Brewer against large veteran small forwards the best strategy? I don't know, and neither does Wittman. But with McCants showing flashes of explosiveness and Gomes surprisingly tepid the past three or four games, I understand the impulse. Wittman has faith that Brewer is mentally tough enough to endure these whuppings and profit from the NBA court time. I don't recommend Brewer start at the 3 for the Wolves next game, however. The opponent has a small forward, first name LeBron.
2. McCants--Best When Selfish?
In the comments section of the last trey, readers and I had a good scrum about whether the emergence of McCants might get in the way of Jefferson's alpha-dog status in the offense and thus simultaneously deter from the Wolves' stated "score in the paint" philosophy and smudge the pecking order enough to hurt team chemistry. Over the weekend, McCants generally put those fears to rest by often looking to get his teammates off in the half court sets. In both games, he and Jeff executed the sort of nifty, rapid-fire pick-and-roll that barely waits for the switch--Jefferson slammed home the stuff on both occasions.
But much more frequently, McCants' passing gambits were unwise. He committed 8 fat turnovers versus the Wizards on Friday (only two of them charges or travels), and, given that Jefferson misfired from point-blank range in the paint at least a half-dozen times while finishing a miserable 5-16 FG, probably should have called his own number more often. Against New Orleans, McCants joined the general dolor infecting the entire Wolves roster, hitting just 2-10 FG while committing another three turnovers. Yet those 10 shots in 27:04 again indicate the Shaddy was hardly ball-hoggin'. The more intriguing question now becomes, does he need to go for his own to maximize his scoring prowess?
Wolves' fans should cross their fingers and hope the answer is no. Instead, let's offer two more reassuring explanations. First, McCants is neither a point guard nor should be expected to play like one. With the likes of Telfair and especially Jaric, however, he increasingly finds himself compelled to "set something up" out on the wing (hat tip to Garwood Jones for the original insight). Now at the rate things are going, Wolves fans are going to expect the return of Randy Foye to cure cancer--it certainly has been to go-to answer for every other thing ailing the Wolves and humanity. But in this instance, the return of Foye should be of great service to Shaddy, in part because Foye's penetration and (hopefully) kick-out will provide McCants with a bevy of open looks from the perimeter, and in part because McCants will be freed to operate in shoot-first mode more often when he gets the rock. It will be Foye's job to foster ball movement.
The second explanation is that, after nailing so many sweet jumpers versus Sac, McCants forgot that scoring in the paint off the dribble is an important--and vital to his good standing with Wittman--part of his game. Just one of Shaddy's seven baskets (in 16 attempts) was a layup against the Wizards. Versus the Hornets the next night, he simply didn't score from the perimeter, registering his only points on a reverse slam in the first period and a spectacular left-handed jam over Tyson Chandler in the third (he egregiously traveled on the play, but no whistle so no harm).
In short, by dishing to Jefferson in the first 85 seconds of play on Friday and looking for his teammates most of the weekend, McCants showed he wants to operate within the context of the club's offensive schemes. And when Foye finally returns and McCants does the up-fake and go more often as a play off his jumper, the turnovers will diminish and the field goal percentage will rise. Maybe.
3. Silver Linings
It's a shame the Friday night tilt versus Washington wasn't televised, for the Wolves put forth a much better effort than the dog-like performance on Saturday. The key was the performance of the bench in the second quarter, with Telfair, Brewer, Buckner, and Walker joining Jefferson for a smallish quintet that swung the ball with verve and then moved after the pass to foster more ball-movement opportunities; rotated crisply on defense, especially doubling-down on passes into the paint, and generally played with a sense of fun, purpose and electric energy perhaps not seen since the opening quarter of the season opener against Denver.
The quiet leader by example in all of this was once again Antoine Walker, reprising his role from the previous game versus Sacramento. Watching Walker's on-court intelligence makes one wince in recognition of how clueless almost all of his teammates are by comparison. (No disrespect intended, but when 'Toine is the brains of your outfit, your team is in very deep shit.) For example, knowing the multi-misfiring Jefferson was starting to swat at the mosquitoes buzzing his psyche, Walker fed Jeff in traffic for an easy layup he could have converted solo. Little things like that go a long way toward demolishing Walker's checkered reputation.
He also has a knack for a maneuver that I haven't seen a Timberwolf do well since Fred Hoiberg enabled KG: Caught in a double-team, Garnett would dump it to Hoiberg. Freddie would wait just half a beat, perhaps make a feint like he was going to the hoop, then immediately zip it back to Garnett, now facing only one defender and no longer stuck on his pivot foot. Walker executed a similar "get it, wait a sec, give it back" twice with Jefferson to perfect effect (that is, if Jefferson could have hit any shots on Friday). And on offense, 'Toine had the perfect mix of quick-release treys, and up-fake dribble penetration plus quick snap passes. Bottom line, he had 11 points and sparked a 16-2 Wolves run in the first 6:10 of the second quarter.
The other Wolves' player who boosted his internal standing over the weekend was Telfair. The differences between Bassy and Marko at the point, particularly with respect to pace in transition and probing in the half-court, were obvious. Two cavaets: On both Friday and Saturday, Telfair's first stints in action much more productive than his second stints. And Telfair's fabled defense was not in evidence on Saturday when New Orleans blew open the game in the second half. Neither Telfair nor any other self-respecting point should let the likes of Jannero Pargo waltz down to the foul line before seriously picking him up. That laxity was typical of the entire Wolves defense, which generated a mere 4 turnovers despite the absence of Chris Paul from New Orleans's lineup. In any case, it is hard to lavish too much praise on any point who helps enable Pargo to go off for 15 points and 7 assists with just a single turnover.
Nevertheless, Telfair had his best back-to-back outings of the season, and, if he maintains the momentum, should receive the bulk of the backup minutes when Foye returns. He also has a special chemistry with Brewer on the court--they find each other, and feed off the other's energy--which made Wittman's decision to start Brewer and not include Telfair on Saturday all the more perplexing.
In regards to your comment "the return of Foye should be of great service to Shaddy," I don't think that Foye's return will have that much of a significant impact on Shaddy. You mention that it will be Foye's responsiblity to distribute the ball (that is true) but isn't it Marko's or Telfair's responsibility now? Unless Foye becomes a true point guard while recovering from his knee injury his presence will only increase the number of off guards and small forwards that we have. For Shaddy to take the next step and become what this team needs as well as to be anything but a niche player he needs to be able to become more rounded. We need him to play more like Josh Howard. Until then Foye will just mask Shaddy's play for a while but he will be exploited when and if games are important again for the Twolves.
Foye is a better point guard than Jaric or Telfair. At least, this is what we are counting on. The argument is that Foye would run the offense better than Telfair or Jaric and allow Shaddy to not have to make point guard decisions when the ball is in his hands. Rather, he can be on the perimeter while Foye is driving and dishing out to shaddy and he can get some open looks at the basket for threes and such.
Because neither Telfair or Jaric are scorers like Foye, and neither might not be as good at setting up the offense, it puts more pressure on McCants to run the offense from the off-guard spot, while looking for his shot at the same time. This is why the return of Foye would benefit McCants. Foye should easily join McCants and Jefferson as a 15-17 ppg avg once he returns, while dishing out 4-8 assists per game.
In theory I agree but judging Foye from last year he appeared to be more of a scoring point guard. When you have a scoring point guard you need a 2 guard that can make decissions and run the offence a little. That is where Shaddy is struggling. That is why I think that the impact may not be as significant as it should be. I agree that Foye is better then both of them but also different and with a different mind set. Whether it works or not is more dependant on Shaddy growing as a player not just as a scorer.
So far, I think Shaddy's struggles come from opposing teams implementing their defense with the goal to stop him because Jefferson and him are the only two offensive threats out there right now. He's having a very good season, so far demonstrating that he has grown as a player. I am sure he will make adjustments to the defense's focus on him. While still inexperienced, I see no reason to believe that he will not grow more and benefit from having another legit scorer out on the floor with him in Foye as well.
Britt, I went back and took another look at the first half of the Wizards game, and you were right, Telfair looked much better - maybe in the 2nd half he was just pressing. Good to see him making progress. I certainly like how disruptive he can be on defense, even if his size makes him a bit of a liability (I noticed that the Wiz.s posted him up on his very first defensive possession).
The guy who never ceases to amaze me is Jaric. I know you've written about him many times before (his "special skill set")...anyways, to me the guy is kind of a poor man's (OK, destitute man's) Kirilenko. Obviously not as tall, and not as good of a one-on-one defender. But does the same things well: goes to the basket (how about that one-on-one move against Stevenson, going left into his body and then back to his right hand so the shot couldn't be blocked), is very disruptive on defense (Jamison complained to the refs at one point when Jaric knocked the ball away from him, I think it was because he couldn't believe Jaric had done it - very few players would be good enough to make that play - reminds me of Doug Christie's heyday), even if he doesn't have quick enough feet to really guard the PGs.
But the best thing about Jaric is his passing (another point in common with Kirilenko). Twice in the first quarter he found Jefferson basically sitting on top of the basket (Jefferson bobbled one of the passes because, again, I don't think he could believe what an excellent pass Jaric had made). And it's not just the fancy stuff - he's an excellent fundamental passer (e.g. has a knack for making well-timed passes that find shooters in their rhythm) - he had an excellent feed to Gomes about halfway through the 1st quarter for an 18-footer on a fast break, Gomes just had to gather himself and shoot, the pass arrived perfectly.
The thing I've always felt about Jaric is that the Twolves are playing him out of position - he's an excellent passer, but he's simply not a PG. He'd be best on a team where he could have a role like Kirilenko - kind of a "point forward," or "point 2-guard" in this case, able to set up guys who can score (like Kirilenko does so often with Boozer and Williams). I think there's a chance of this with the Wolves: if Foye ends up being able to play the point, Jaric would be an excellent compliment to him and McCants - a bit of an undersized perimeter group, but Foye and McCants could really feed off of Jaric's ability to give them the ball in exactly the place they want it (which is of course another description of an excellent "fundamentals" passer).
Anyways thanks again for the great writing.
I'm glad you made this point, I've felt this way all along about Jaric. I think he is a solid small forward in this league, between his defense and passing. If he had a consistent three point shot, he'd be an all-star player - as he is, I like what he brings to the table. He is not a point guard however, and playing him there is a disservice.
Since KG left, I've lost a lot of love for the guy. His part in the Wolves mediocrity has become apparent in reports and those Taylor interviews. He was part of the problem. Should the brain trust have had enough acumen to work around their stars shortcomings? Yes. But it sounds like KG's input meant a lot, and that it was often half-assed and selfish. F him, I say.
The idea that a business valued at a third of a billion dollars would leave the decisions up to an emotional (I think we all agree that KG is that) guy in his mid twenties boggles the mind. Even weirder, is that we're supposed to blame the kid for this. Why hire a GM?
It would be bad marketing to say,"We really hosed this one up. We had one of the best forwards to ever play the game and we used up his peak career years. The only reason people still pay for their seats is the belief that the guy Larry Bird skills was the problem because he couldn't post up like McHale. Dodged a bullet on that one. Now pony up to see our 1-11 team."
A reminder, even Jordon never made the conference finals without Pippen, tho Pippen made it there once without Jordon. The experience boston is having, even if it doesn't last, makes it pretty clear that the roster may have been the problem with KGs game after all.
And please, no more blaming the teller for WalMart's excesses.
I hate to be the realist here but the Celtics fans the last four years sound just like you guys. They always talked about the effort. What Jefferson could be come. How high Green can jump etc.. but in the end this very same team (almost) lost 16 in a row last year.
Reality bites but the guys you got from Boston are not going anywhere. How many years do they get to be good and never realize it?
Jefferson aside Mchale traded KG to Boston to help the Celtics. What Jefferson might become is something everyone was waiting for and waiting for until the answer was clear. Trade him.
Sorry but I hate to see you have to sit through this for 4 years and then realize what most Celtics fans realized early on but wouldn't admit. None of those players you got are going to be any good except Jefferson and he doesn't have the basketball IQ to get it done on a consistent basis.
Having been a Celtic fan for 35 years I also feel you aren't giving Walker enough credit. He is sloppy with the ball with turnovers and some bad shots are just part of his game but he has a good basketball IQ on his shoulders when on the right team. He did it in Boston for seven years and Miami in 06. In the right situation (this is not it) he deserves some credit.
Thanks for KG:) and good luck. I hope you win some games.
Lots of 'realists' have been quick to 'explain' to the Wolves how the Celts minus Pierce were going to be just as bad in Minny. Thanks for the 'knowledge'.
When the KG trade went through, I think most savvy Wolves fans viewed it like this: Jefferson (centerpiece), Gomes (role player tweener), Green (probably a bust), Telfair (last chance to be a backup PG), Ratliff (expiring), + 2 picks. All the players had short and/or cheap contracts.
The Wolves core is not 'mostly ex-Celtics'. The core is likely Foye, McCants, Jefferson, Brewer, + next summer's draft pick. Only one of those is a former Celtic.
I am thankful for KG's great years of service here and hope he does well. But I've heard enough crowing about the Red Socks, Patriots, and Celtics to last a lifetime.
Shawn- I totally agree. And I'll add this: In five years, KG's career will be over or nearing an end. Jefferson will be entering his prime.
The anonymous Celts fan poster was amazingly short-sighted to think that we (Wolves fans) believe the Timberwolves made this trade to be better now. Hello?! Get an f'n clue!
This was the trade: KG for Jefferson and picks. Everyone else was included to make salaries match. End of story.
Will Theo Ratliff's expiring contract benefit the Wolves? Sure. Is Gomes a decent player the Wolves will attempt to re-sign? Probably. Does Bassy have a chance to be a decent backup PG? Time will tell. But if KG for Jeff and picks is the turkey, the rest of the package probably isn't even stuffing, mashed potatoes and cranberries ... it's more like salt and pepper.
Happy Thanksgiving all!
Jefferson has shown consistently increasing numbers and progress. Other former Celtics have not. Bassey has been inconsistent but has had good moments. He may fill a back-up role. I admire Theo's grit, but he has excessive mileage and his present knee problem is not favorable.
Gomes is consistent but not exceptional. Walker fills a need for veteran knowledge and insight, but he too is inconsistent. He will be bought out next summer.
The KG trade outcome is yet to be completed. We won't know how good it was for the home team until the draft choice materializes and matures. Meantime, the Celtics are paying luxury tax, have no serviceable center, a questionable bench, and limited future draft choices.
Basketball needs a well performing Boston franchise. Good luck.
Hey Anonymous Celtics Fan,
Sorry to burst your bubble, but none of us Midwestern dopes are expecting anything from any of these guys except Jefferson. If we get anything it is gravy, if we don't their contracts all expire after this year.
We got one good piece (AJ) and a lot of future financial flexibility. That's it. You're preaching to the choir. Enjoy Garnett, and realize your window is very small.
See, this anonymous post is what make me root against KG and why I will be hooting it up when KG, Pierce and Allen are all nursing their nagging injuries at the end of the year, completely spent of energy and KG makes another first round playoff exit, while the wolves play .500 ball over the last 30 games and even string together a home court winning streak of 7 or eight games. Nothing against KG, but I am not rooting for Mcfail to fail. I want to see him vindicated.
Man, I'm skinny and I'm 6'2" and 205. Of course when I was Brewers age I weighed 165, but I was running 31 minute 10 K's and putting on weight was not conducive to competitive distance running. However, as a former skinny basketball player who guarded players weighing more than I (I weighed 135 lbs my senior year in high school at the same height) you can make up for a for a lack of strength by using your head and being quicker. There's fighting through screens with power, and then there is anticipating a screen and not allowing it to be set squarely on you and then quickly slipping by it. I think Brewer will put on some muscle and weight over time, but he will adjust more quickly through experience and learning to compensate for his lack of stature. I would put him on James for awhile and then sit him for awhile, then send him out there again. He'll get schooled and look overwhelmed again, but I still think he is overwhelmed more due to a lack of experience more than to a lack of weight.
Let's understand a few things. McCants is essentially in his second year. As such, he is still playing with his God given abilities but struggles with his on court maturity (vis-a-vis impulses). This explains why he is turnover prone. Will he end up being another Ricky Buckets (also high turnovers)? Time will tell. But he currently is in need of better on-court judgment.
As for Brewer, Peja missed his first 5 shots with Corey manning up on him. It was only after Hornet screens were set did Peja get open looks. Screens are set by teams and defended by teams. As such, this was much more about poor team defense than Corey being a feather weight. Also, at some point we should realize that 85% shooting is attributable to the shooter having an exceptionally good night irrespective of defensive match up.
Corey belongs at the 3 and starting given Gomes shrinkage. The experience will help Corey reach his potential faster. We know what Gomes is capable of already.
CA--
Let's understand this: At the very least your chronology is wrong. Peja missed his first *three* shots, followed by making six in a row before Brewer sat, then missed his lone shot with Gomes on him. That was his first quarter line. Of those six he made on Brewer, four were treys and one was a fast break layup in transition after a McCants missed layup; only one was unassisted. In other words, Peja didn't take Brewer off the dribble and run him into picks very often if he was getting assisted on nearly every bucket. And two of those assists on treys were by Chandler--were those ultra-high post pick and rolls out by the arc, or dishes from the paint?
Brewer has the tenacity and the quickness to stay with Peja when the latter is running around. What he doesn't have is the bulk to fight through the picks and screens that come with the territory of guarding a catch-and-shoot long-distance threat like Peja, and, there's no way his teammates can switch off every time he gets hung up on a pick when Peja is still drifting outside and doesn't even have the ball yet. Especially since, more likely than not, the guy Brewer would stay with is closer to the hoop and almost certainly outweighs him by at least 35 pounds. .
Yes, Peja was hot, and hit a couple with Brewer right in his face. But from your description, Peja was 0-5 with Brewer "manning up on him" and therefore 8-8 (because he was 8-13 with Brewer guarding him on Saturday) because of poor team defense and Peja's exceptional shooting eye. Isn't that coincidental! Meanwhile few screens must have been run in the 7 minutes Gomes was on him, since Peja went 1-3. Finally, you don't address the huge disparity in Caron Butler's numbers with Brewer on him versus Gomes on him the previous night, other than to say that Butler's 85% FG while guarded by Brewer was attributable to Butler having "an exceptionally good night, irrespective of defensive match up." Except that Butler only shot 56% FG (5-9) with Gomes on him.
I explicitly stated that I understood why Wittman would want to go with Brewer at the 3 now. I get the youth movement, the rebuilding, the need to get guys minutes even in overwhelming situations--that was, eh, the whole theme of the first point of my trey. But don't tell me his lack of bulk isn't a factor against the likes of Butler and Peja, or that Gomes--who is 6-7, 250 versus Brewer's 6-9, 185, and has an appreciation for defense plus two full years in the league--isn't a better matchup right now against those guys.
Final question: Does Corey "belong at the 3" Wednesday versus 6-8, 250 pound LeBron James?
I don't have the video of the game and will not dispute 3 versus 5. However, you still attribute too much to the defender and not enough to the shooter. Peja is a streaky shooter, always has been. If Peja gets an open look, he is likely to hit it. He followed the game with the T-wolves with 10-19 shooting last night against the Magic. Is there a defender weight issue here to?
I'm not the only one who attributes Peja's success to screens set for him. Most importantly, Wittman reached the same conclusion I did (independently).
Speed versus proportional weight has been an ongoing argument since James Naismith. But to make an absolute conclusion that Brewer's weight (vis-a-vis Gomes) is the reason, that's pure folly. For example, does Brewer's lack of weight help or hinder him in getting to a defensive spot on the floor before the pick? Does it help or hinder Brewer in knifing between picks? I suggest it helps him (vis-a-vis the more bulky Gomes).
You also fail to attribute Peja's and Butler's success to Brewers inexperience while mentioning that such experience is ultimately good for him. Gomes has faced these players many times (all Eastern Division) and knows their tendencies. What does that have to do with relative weight?
No doubt Brewer will add upper body muscle to his frame in the off-season resullting in more weight, but there are many more important variables at play than relative bulk.
Does Corey below at the 3 against LeBron? Has anyone successfully defended LeBron since he entered the league? What is Gomes record against LeBron? Wittman has emphasized flexibility and situational role playing. I would want answers to the Gomes history with LeBron before deciding on Corey's assignment against the Cavs. But, as with any other assignment for a rookie, it will be a learning experience.
CA--
Fair enough. BTW, you can get a play-by-play on any game at nba.com, which is how I know it was three misses instead of five. And in the interest of reaching common ground, yes, Peja is a streak shooter and yes, there are advantages to quickness over bulk on defense, and yes, experience is probably as or more important than bulk in a defender's arsenal.
But I'm not convinced I disputed any of that in any of my previous posts. What I said instead was that Brewer was exposed on defense versus Butler and Peja when Gomes would likely have been a better option, and used some fairly compelling statistics to back it up. In my view, the most compelling reason why Brewer struggled was that he is vastly outweighed by most of the folks he is guarding and right now would be better suited defending off-guards.
And believe me, even if Gomes has a history of being torched by LeBron, better to let him take the first rotations on Wednesday. Brewer is mentally tough, but there's no sense subjecting him to a starter's scrutiny against the featured ballplayer who most of the folks at Target Center will have come to watch.
Thanks, Britt, I enjoy your work.
He shouldn't be allowed anywhere near LeBron...unless the Wolves want him to show up a few times on the wrong side of a Sports Center segment.
It will be interesting to see if he can put on the weight.
Common wisdom says that If there's any player to take solace in the possibility of a skinny kid working out at the 3, it is Tayshaun Prince. But if you look at the tale of the tape, Prince is 215. Hell, even Kevin Durant weighs in above 210.
It's not just LeBron that he's going to struggle with. Mello, Josh Howard, Corey Maggette, Andrei Kirilenko, Rudy Gay, Bruce Bowen, Ron Artest...the list goes on and on with guys who are 6'7-6'9" and 215-225. Brewer gives up 40 pounds to some of these guys.
Can he put on that much weight? Who knows, but there really isn't all that much difference between the 2 and the 3 spots in the Midwest Division when it comes to weight. Gordan Giricek, Brandon Roy, JR Smith, Manu...well, he could do a good job against Luther Head. He's yet another 'tweener on a roster that doesn't need that sort of thing.
Mr. Robson, I have a question for you: What do you think are the odds of getting rid of Walker's and Jaric's salaries via trade or reducing them via buyout for next season's free agency season? Next year's free agency season will be very competitive and I don't think the Wolves will be in a position (as an uncompetitive team) to go up against other teams with a lot of space under the cap (at that point). Atlanta has a glut of forwards (Josh Smith, M. Williams, S. Williams, Josh Childress, and Al Horford) and 2 of them (Smith and Childress) are restricted free agents this year. Smith is a legit 3 in this league and he's 21. I don't care about attitude problems. I want competency. Do you think the Wolves could clear enough cap space (buy out/trade Jaric and Walker; don't resign Gomes, Telfair, Ratliff, Smith) to overbid enough for Smith to pry him away from Atlanta (especially when they have more money locked up in the forward spots on the bench and Childress is quite capable to man the 3; maybe work a sign and trade to cover any gap in contracts...I'm all about giving them McCants)? I'm not sure they could clear enough space to make a decent offer, but this would give you a solid 3 and a solid 4 with a (likely) top pick where you could go 1 or 5 depending on how Foye works out and then you bite the bullet and fill out your roster with the Chris Richards of the world. Move Brewer over to the 2 and hope and pray that you get another high pick to fill out the 1 or the 5 that you couldn't get in the 08 Draft in 09.
Why on earth would you be contemplating more forwards versus a PG and center?
This year is nothing more than an audition. Bassey and Juric are auditioning at PG along with the recovering Foye. Bassey and Juric have average abilities and one of them may end up a back-up PG for next year.
McCants and Foye are (will be) auditioning at SG, with Brewer under certain situations. Unless McCant's floor maturity improves, the nod goes to Foye. Brewer has many raw talents, but at present I don't see him putting up many jumpers from the parameter (although he can slash to the dish).
We all know that Jefferson is the beast at PF.
Theo's mileage is showing and won't be with the team next year. We should be exploring free agency for a bona fide center for next year. Since it takes considerable time to develop a rookie center, free agency is the best alternative.
Unless Walker sets the world on fire, the remaining year of his contract will be bought out after this season.
Trading Walker's contract might be easier than Juric, given Marko's remarkably high contract. Who would give equal value for Marko unless there was an extra carrot on top.
CA: It's not just about contemplating more forwards; it's about getting NBA level starters on the roster and balancing your needs in free agency vs those in the draft. This team has a single legit NBA starter: Jefferson. McCants, Foye, and Brewer may turn into something (I think Brewer has the smarts to make it happen) but they're not there now. Outside of the 4 spot, this team has zip, zero, nothing. We have no other worthwhile starting forwards and I don't need a year of mixed lineups to prove it.
If you want to find a 5 in free agency, next year is not the year to do it unless you are willing to settle for the Lorenzen Wrights and Desagana Diop's of the world.
In today's NBA game, you can get by with a slasher/defender at the 2. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that Brewer could become a Ginobli-type player: mid 40's from the floor, below 40 from behind the line, 13-17 ppg, high energy, etc. He doesn't need to light it up from the perimeter to make an impact at the 2.
If the Wolves are going to build on the 4, they're going to need an above average 1 who can get into the lane and a good defending/versatile 3. The Spurs should be the model and Brewer is more Manu than Bowen.
Also, I'm not completely sold on Big Al. He's definitely a starter but I'm not sure he's a cornerstone kind of guy. He appears to have great footwork and he's a 20/10/50% kind of guy, but is he a good compliment to a speedy 1 who can work the pick and roll where he would have to hit between 15-17? Is he a good passer from the low block? Can he rotate over to the 5 when you go with a small lineup?
Mr. Robson: thanks for the answer. I kind of suspected that he'd be hard to get away from Atlanta. My hope is that since both he and Childress have put off contract negotiations until after the season ends that one of them could be pried loose if the offer was large enough...no matter if it was the frozen tundra or not. My dream starting 5 next year if Foye works out at the 1 is:
1- Foye
2- Brewer
3- Josh Smith
4- Al Jefferson
5- Kosta Koufos (7 foot frosh at OSU who is already 2-3 times the offensive player as was Oden)
1st man off the bench: McCants
If Foye doesn't work:
1- Rose/Mayo (which ever one shows the most promise this year at the 1)
2- Foye
3- Smith
5- Jefferson
5- Holy crap we're screwed
1st man off the bench: Brewer
I think you could get a long way in the West in a few years with that 1st core group. Solid defense (Smith is a defensive beast), good rebounding, and a front line to kill for.
If the Wolves could pry away Smith, I think they could be good a lot sooner than people think. At least before the awful Vikes make the playoffs.
I respect your viewpoint with a few caveats. Jefferson is a top five NBA PF right now with further upside. Corey is been in the league, what, two weeks? At the 2 it isn't whether or not you can get by without a parameter threat. It is an absolute necessity. A parameter threat sets up cuts to the basket. You need the complete package at the 2. Like Juric, Corey at the 2 will get beat by smaller, niftier SGs.
Foye is a stud. The question is whether or not he moves to his natural SG position should McCants continue to have excessive turnovers due to poor court judgment.
Centers have been the historic Achilles Heal for the T-wolves. And, you are right about 2008 free agency. The Celtics are also in dire need but they have a cap problem. That leaves trade or draft-develop as options for '08.
CA: Take a look at Brewer's college stats. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he has the potential to hit those numbers in the pro game. If so, his shot percentages are not unlike many 2s in the league. Even well-respected shooters like Michael Redd are below 40% from behind the line and below 50% overall from the field. If he hits at the same rate he did in college, it will be enough.
I hope you're right about Jefferson and Foye. I don't see much more room for improvement with Big Al. I just don't know where it will come from unless he gets a solid 1 on the team that can open him up for some mid-range jumpers. As for Foye, we'll have to wait and see how his knee plays out. He could be off the court until after the 1st of the year. I will say this: Either Foye or McCants HAS to work out or you can add 1 more year to the rebuilding process. This next draft is going to offer some big name talent at the 1, 3, and 5. The Wolves need to know if these guys can man their spots well enough so that they can decide whether or not to go big or small in the draft. There are going to be 7-8 players worth taking in this draft. The Wolves need to know where they stand with McCants and Foye to make the right pick. The only other test on this team should be with Bassy at the backup 1...although his qualifying offer might be too high when you can pick up a second rounder for much less (one of the Washington State guards for instance).
I will never understand the Foye pick over Roy...especially in light of Mike James. There was absolutely no reason not to take Roy.
Foye and Roy were about even in most scouts minds as of the draft, but Foye was regarded as a PG/SG and Roy was seen as more of a SG. We signed James after the Foye pick, but I think, more to suit KG's desire to win right away and not have to rely on a rookie point guard.
Remember, The Jaric experiment was over at PG and he was going to be used at SG/SF where we also had Hassell and Davis getting a lot of minutes. The Wolves needed someone to play backup to James or some other veteran point guard, before emerging as the starter. Foye fit that criteria better than Roy.
I was high on Foye without seeing much of Roy, but I do think looks like the better pick in hindsight and has even showed he can man the NBA point as well as Foye. Foye's knee is troublesome, but I still think the jury is out on whether PG or SG is his best position. WIth the amount of time he has missed this year we still might not know his true value until he hits his stride next year with a healthy knee, more experience and more experienced teammates. I am hopeful he will prove as valuable NBA player as Roy over his career, but I wouldn't bet much on it right now.
The problem the Wolves have is not that player x is comparable in scouts' minds to player y, it is that they have made 3 consecutive picks in a row without regard to actual NBA positions. I think Foye is a talented player and I'm not saying Roy was the right pick because of talent; he was the right pick because he's a legit 2. Hindsight is 20/20 on talent but positional need was something this team has been completely incapable of understanding and dealing with, and they should have known better with that pick. Even if they liked McCants, they should have chosen Gay. Instead, they chose the one player that made zero sense and picked up the 1 free agent that made even less. I suppose this is where you could get into the whole "how big of a part did KG play in all of this" game. If the KG deal is going to work in the long term, this team needs to cut its loses and make some tough decisions about their recent draft picks that were made in light of KG. Right now, they have Jefferson and that's it. Everyone else is fair game and every other position is a dramatic need. From that point, the need to prioritize and figure out Foye vs. McCants; Brewer at the 2 or 3; Telfair as a back up 1; Foye as a big-league point...that's pretty much it.
I would disagree. They chose Foye because they felt the SG position was covered with Jaric, Hassell and Davis and they had chosen McCants the year before. They wanted another option at point guard.
If I read you right, you are saying their is a science to drafting first round picks and putting together a team. You need a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and then a bench. I think drafting is not only not much of a science, it can hardly be described as an art. Rather, its a crapshoot. Random luck, through the lottery, at least. You do your homework, look at what your team needs, see whose on the board, then hope for the best. In almost every case only 1 or two teams can say they made the right pick. with 20/20 hindsight, there is always room for someone to look back and say "you should have drafted a 2 or a 5." or for someone else to say "you should have drafted the best player available, regardless of position." Regardless of the formulas for drafting or building a team, the most important thing to overcome are random events such as injuries, personalities, contracts, chemistry, that defy all attempts at making a science or an art out of predicting.
That said, I agree with some of your priorities, but don't see them as insurmountable. I also don't see the need to choose between Foye and McCants and could see many scenarios where they coexist on a winning team - random Gods permitting.
"I would disagree. They chose Foye because they felt the SG position was covered with Jaric, Hassell and Davis and they had chosen McCants the year before. They wanted another option at point guard."
...is that a defense of or an attack on the Wolves' front office?
There is a science to putting a team together. Yes, it involves luck, but it also involves having long term goals and being able to prioritize and, if the chance arises, to be able to move on targets of opportunity. The science continues with what kind of offense do you want to run; do you want to be a half court team; do you want to focus on the front line; and so on and so forth. You need to decide what kind of team you want (above and beyond "Hey, come run with KG") and then fill the roster accordingly. From coaches to draft picks to free agent signings, you need a business model to run an effective organization and it should be as scientific as possible.
I agree that there is an element of randomness with injury, chemistry, and whatnot, but picking two 6-nothing 'tweener guards in consecutive years is not a random act; it is an act of someone without a plan--predictable stupidity with the case of the Wolves' front office.
I hope Foye works at the 1 and McCants at the 2, because then we are closer than I thought.
S&P,
I was outraged last year. I was venting at the front office. It was three years of disappointment. But, the drafting of McCants and Foye were one bright spot in the sea of disappointments. They both have shown promise.
The front office went out and put together a new long-term plan and traded James, KG, Hassell, Davis and Blount. They have Jefferson, McCants, Foye and Brewer as a strong nucleus to build around and, if all goes well could fill the 1-4 spot.
We owe Telfair, Smith, Green and Gomes nothing beyond this year and unless they prove their worth we don't need to sign them.
We will be in the hunt for the #1 pick in the draft and will at least have one of the first 5 picks this year.
We also will likely have two later first round picks.
We have the flexibility to sign a free agent player to fill out the roster.
There is a plan and I don't no if it will work, but at least its a plan.
Wtf? were not even 10 games in and you already want to blow the whole thing up and start over again?
There's really nothing to blow up. Free agency this year will be tough (check out my fellow blogger wd's breakdown of salaries over at Canis Hoopus) because we simply have too much salary and even buy outs will leave us with contract obligations. It could be done but a lot of things need to happen.
We'll just have to disagree about anyone beyond Jefferson being a good nucleus. I think Foye and Brewer have a shot to be a part of the plan, but again, they're not there yet.
I don't trust the Wolves front office to have anything approaching a plan. They say they have one and I can see them working in the general direction of clearing cap space and collecting draft picks, but these are still the same guys who crashed the car in the first place. I'd trust George Bush more than McHale at this point.
I think our differences on blowing things up is largely a matter of semantics. I'd like to keep McCants, Foye, Brewer, and Jefferson. Get rid of the 4 players you mention and jettison the dead weight vets. If you want to call this blowing up the team, so be it, but I don't think it's that far off from what you are advocating for. I'm just arguing that McCants, Foye, and Brewer need to find where they belong this year. Can Foye run the 1? Is McCants a starting 2 or is he a 6th man? Can Brewer play the 2 and 3 and does he have the skills to be a starter? These are important questions. If Foye works out, we can go big with our first pick in next year's draft. If he doesn't, we'll probably have a crack at Mayo or Rose. If Brewer won't work at the 3 the Wolves will likely have Budinger or Beasley to pick from. With all these draft picks, they need to have a clear assessment of existing talent by the year's end. If they don't, that is a problem and they will have missed a golden opportunity.
Ideally, McCants and Foye work out at the 2 and the 1. This way we can draft big with the first pick and give Big Al some help at the 5 so he doesn't have to play out of position (which is the most glaring hole on this team when Ratliff is out; even more than the 1).
SP--
The quick answer is that I doubt it, although I admire the diligence of your thinking. I'm not a big Smith fan, although I admit the one time I saw him this year he seemed less ball-hoggish and generally more well-rounded with the upgrade in personnel around him, especially Horford and Law, who both looked fabulous for rooks. The huge sticking point here is that Smith is from Atlanta and very much about leading the team's resurgence back to respectibility; hard to believe he'd be happy coming to another steep rebuilding job in the frozen tundra.
The other sticking point is Atlanta's screwed up ownership situation; nobody gets along with each other and they wind up vetoing deals.
Given their respective position gluts, Minnesota and Atlanta would make for compelling trade partners. But I think it would take a lot to convince Glen Taylor to return to the free-wheeling, fast-upgrade mentality that saddled him with an impossible, money-losing situation for the past 3-4 years. The plan is for slow, hopefully sure, reconstruction with young guys of high character and a paint-oriented philosophy--the cheaper the better until Jefferson, Brewer, Foye, etc, are ready for their playoff close-up. In that scheme, yes, I think Walker and Jaric will be dangled nonstop, and that Walker has a chance at helping a contender in the spring, provided the Wolves underwrite a piece of his remaining salary.
I see AK chimed while I was babbling into my computer. His triangulation is as sage and frustrating as when Bill and Hillary practice it.
Regarding Brewer at the 3, I must triangulate the positions of Britt and Captain. I was out of my seat two or three times yelling encouragement and kudos for Corey's solid D early on Saturday. His man-to-man coverage of Peja was excellent. I wonder whether perhaps the Hornets underestimated Brewer's ability to cover Peja in their pre-game and made early adjustments in the form of screens to get Peja open.
On the other hand a raw 6-9 185 can't work at the 3 in the long run. Brewer's true grit can get the job done for a while, but not for first-team minutes. At a certain point an ooponent with 40-50 extra pounds and thousands of extra NBA minutes will win the day vs even the gutsiest rookie waif.
However, I'm not tracking Corey's development at the 3 in years like Britt, for me its weeks and months. If in November he can hold down premier 3s for 8 minutes and force adjustments, I expect by late January it will be more like 18-20 minutes.
Word is he's a sponge with the coaches and vets. If he can absorb from them and take full advantage of his NBA per diem, he could be a legit starting 3 by the time the Wolves are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
1. Isn't Foye's knee being reevaluated today? Hopefully he'll get good news.
2. Anyone noticed how Udrih is playing well for the Kings? He had 23 points last night and 6 assists against the Pistons. Granted, I sort of feel like if the Spurs let him go there must be some major problem with him, but it's too bad that the wolves couldn't have found a way to keep him on the team since he appears to be a solid point guard. They could have bought out Doleac (who we never play), for instance.
"(Foye's knee) is progressing good," said Wittman. "I think they said another three weeks is best for him right now. The thing is healing, it's just not all the way there the way they'd like to see it. What they are doing is an improvement so we'll continue on that course.
"He'll have to work himself back into condition and all that, but nothing for the next three weeks."
timberwolves.com
http://www.twincities.com/allheadlines/ci_7507315
I just heard the same. 3 more weeks, eh? And this after Foye said (on Saturday during the game) that he had been pain-free for awhile...well, it's disappointing, but as long as it's progress....I'd rather not see him rushed back anyway.
Jessie asked on the last thread if 72-10 was in danger in the East. I'd be interested in what others think. Here's my take.
When the trade went down, I thought I would be rooting for Boston and KG, but I find myself rooting more for McHale. I don't know if it is the contrarian in me or simply because I remain a homer. Or, perhaps I really like rooting for the underdogs and liked KG more when he was the underdog in MN and not when he is the favorite to win the East. So, I'll admit a little bias, but I also think there is good reason to think the Celtics will falter down the stretch and lose before reaching the championship round in the Eastern playoffs.
If you look at a season like a game, you can think of KG and the Celtics as coming out and playing on pure passion and then running out of energy in the fourth quarter. KG's passion this year is understandable and he has come out with a fury. I think this fury might last long enough to place him among the league leaders in MVP voting this year, but there will be a noticeable drop in the second half of the season for both his production and in the Celtics record. The past three seasons, KG has also displayed this passion coming out of the blocks, but his passion was not sustainable for the year. He is logging heavy minutes a long with Pierce and Allen and, despite their reputable workout schedules and conditioning, NBA minutes take a toll on your body and all three of these players have logged heavy NBA minutes in their career and will likely tire and succumb to minor (or, god forbid, a major one) injuries that will negatively affect their play.
The NBA season is a marathon, and I would feel better about a Celtics team where Pierce, Allen and KG averaged between 33-35 minutes a night, while beginning 5-3 instead of 38-40 minutes a night and 8-0 record to start the season with.
The Celtics still make the playoffs and have one of the best records in the league this year, barring any major injuries to the big three, but, I foresee a noticeable statistical drop-off over the second half of the season and they will not make it past the second round in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
I would tend to agree with Andy B. The Celtics' big three all have a good bit of mileage on them, but their bench is so thin they're going to have to play an awful lot, in addition to the natural tendency to want them on the court all the time (every Wolves coach I can remember, from Flip on down through Wittman last year, talked about wanting to limit KG's minutes, but when the chips were down it never happened--the guy is just too freaking talented to be able to resist using him 38+ minutes a game). I just don't see how they'll be able to avoid wearing down over the course of 82 games.
I actually see them doing similarly to the Wolves in their glorious MV3 season, making it to the conference finals but no farther.
I agree that they've all got miles on them, but that's also valuable experience. Cutting KG's minutes has got to be an impossible task - not only is he the best player on that roster, but he's got the passion and drive...at some point he's gonna refuse to sit on the bench anyway, right? I also recall those promises of cutting Ticket's minutes, and you're right - it never happened.
I actually don't think their bench is that thin, either - Posey is still a good defender, House gets hot once every few games, and I've always thought Pollard was good since his Sacramento days. More importantly, I can see some ring-chasing vets latching on around midseason - they'll get minutes and not just be along for the ride. Guys like C-Webb, Dale Davis, maybe even Gary Payton or Sam Cassell would want to log minutes with these guys...
The C's 7-0 start can be partially explained by their weak schedule. Last night's game against Orlando was their toughest thus far, and they lost.
That said, I am still rooting for KG as if he were a Wolf. I don't expect him to tail off as the season progresses. We should know, the guy is a warrior and he always brings it. Is 72-10 in danger...maybe. There are certainly a lot of crappy teams, especially out East, that the Celtics are too good to lose to.
However, we really need to see how the C's perform against the likes of Detroit, Phoenix, San Antonio, etc. before we can even think about it.
I am shocked that you actually praised Walker, britt. Congrats.
If you're the same "anonymous" who ripped me previously for not expecting much out of Walker, I repeat, you hadn't read what I wrote before, so no wonder you're shocked now. I specifically stated Walker played a key role in Miami's championship two years ago. Yes, I had doubts about whether he'd be able to suck it up and play a mentoring role on a rebuilding team, and he has (at least temporarily) disspelled those doubts. The great thing about having an open mind is you can praise people you previously criticized--and vice versa--as their performance changes, and follow-up on questions you posed in previous threads. Without an open mind, it is the same old rant, or rave.
I know they're trying to see what they have with Telfair as a back up and that's why Marko is starting, but it is becoming more and more apparent that for all his faults, at least Bassy's game looks somewhat at home at the 1 compared to Marko--who aside from the Sac game has deserved the start even less than Telfair. Bassy has been on the court for some of the Wolves' best team basketball this year; stretches that seem impossible with the incapable-to-penetrate-the-lane Jaric bringing the ball up court.
I can see what you're saying about Shad but I still worry that he'll be problematic this year because no other player on the roster has the ability to disrupt the offense like he does. He's a third option at best and he probably tops out as a 15ppg type of guy, but on this team he's a second option and it has to be kind of a mind-f$#k to be told a) to stay in the offense and b) score...especially when it's becoming more and more apparent that he'll need to jack up a ton of shots to become a legitimate 2nd scoring option on a serviceable team.
I also think the glut that the Wolves have is at positionless guards. Last year we had 4 six-nothing guards who couldn't play the 1 or the 2. The Foye pick still baffles me and I think the front office bought into the combo guard insanity started off by the success of a uniquely good Dwayne Wade. Unlike Atlanta, who has a glut of legitimately talented 6'7"-6'11" forwards, it's hard to field a starting 5, let alone a string of decent backups, when you have 'tweeners at the guard spots. Forwards you can get away with it...guards, not so much. Especially when none of them can play the point.
Perhaps the saddest thing about all of this is that the most glaring problem on this team is when Big Al has to swing over to the 5; we're absolutely screwed next year at the 5 and I have cold sweats that we'll be sitting there with the #1 pick with players like Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley on the board and Stern comes out with, "With the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Roy Hibbert from Georgetown University." A team with this many holes (we only have 1 legit NBA starter) should pick best talent at that point in the draft. We're going to have to draft the guy because the front office will likely still be clinging to Foye PG dreams.
I'd think i'd be Koufos instead of hibbert .. still not top 3 material though. With the luck the wolves had in the past we might just end up with the 4th and pick Koufos there...
BUT that's in the future ^^
I used to think that exact same thing about Shaddy when KG was on this team - that he was completely disruptive on offense by forcing shots, playing out of position, turning the ball over, etc. He really wanted to be a game-changer. But he's really found a rhythm this year and filled the "Foye void" (that's fun to say) at SG nicely by focusing on reading defenses - he's much more apt to feed the ball to Al or swing it around the perimeter than in the past, where he would get the ball and decide whether he could blow past his defender or not.
We'll all find out soon how well two of our "positionless guards" (Foye and McCants) play together. The way we've played so far (aside from the last 2 games), I think Foye could have pushed us over the top in 2-3 of those games. His consistency is what will allow him to log heavy minutes over Jaric and Telfair, who are both capable of big games, but not on a nightly basis.
I don't think even McHale would blow a top-3 pick on Hibbert if the hyped three (Rose, Beasley, Mayo) live up to expectations. I would be concerned about going after Kevin Love, who may be good but plays the same position/style as Al. But, if the Heat make the playoffs (and hence we get their pick), I could see McHale going after that 7'3" UConn guy...
S&G,
I think you are absolutely right that McCants would be the third option on an ideal team. But, as Britt points out, he doesn't need to jack up a lot of shots to be the #2 scoring option. He is shooting at a very high percentage for this season, and I agree that he will benefit from Foyes return, placing him as the more desirable third option on offense.
I also think McCants is continuing to display more maturity both on and off the court. He is taking responsibility for his mistakes and has not, yet, starting placing blame around at officials, teammates or coaches. There are times on the court when he shows his grimace still, especially at the officials, but he tempers it after the game with quotes praising the officials and accepting responsibility for his mistakes - turnovers and fouls. His play has been a pleasant surprise, and, for now, he seems to be a talented young and inexperienced player who is trying to learn from his mistakes, by keeping communication open with his coaches and teammates and learning to make better decisions on the court.
All this makes McCants something to feel good about this year and in the future. I am more worried about the other positions on the court.
I also like to look forward to next year's draft as well (if they end up with the #1 - i'm thinking it will be Mayo over Rose or Beasley), but I am more worried that the lottery luck will not fall in their favor and they will fall to a position where Hibbert is the best available player. Otherwise, I think their previous three drafts make me think they will actually do pretty well, considering they will likely have two more late first round draft picks from Miami and Boston to fill the five hole or a point guard if needed.
In terms of silver linings, I agree that Telfair is showing glimpses of being a pretty decent back up PG. The flipside of this silver lining is that every game that elapses brings us a step closer to the return of Foye, who will be a big improvement- in addition to opening up the floor with his penetration abilities.
Another silver lining has been the emergence of Walker. I was clearly wrong about him. He's got a little left in the tank, and is doing an excellent job at boosting his stock for the eventual trade.
Stop and Pop- I take issue with your "we only have one legit NBA starter" comment. How many teams have an all-star caliber player at every position? Ratliff and McCants would start on more than a few teams, and almost our entire roster (clear exceptions being Green and Richard) would see minutes on even the best NBA teams.
This roster is lacking in experience and balance, but I don't think that we are lacking in talent. Throw out the last two games, and the Wolves have been very competitive. I would expect that on any given night, we should have a good shot at beating the mid to lower tier teams in the league.
No, that isn't cause for celebration, but it's not all gloom and doom, we are rebuilding after all.
- Ratliff: dead weight cap space fodder
- McCants: 33 points on one night, 2 for 10 with 8 TO's the next
- Foye: completely unproven and injured
- Gomes: 3rd year 10/5 guy who will lose his starting spot to Brewer by mid-December. He'd be a good reserve on a great team or a serviceable starter on a good one.
The Wolves have terrible and/or unproven talent. I don't think McCants would start on as many teams as you think. I think Foye and Brewer could develop in a year or two but they are not there now. That leaves the Wolves with Big Al. What other players would other teams want? I guess we'll find out this off season. If the Wolves were smart, they'd low ball Smith and Richard and let them walk if they could find a better offer.
I love the team and I enjoy b-ball more than any other sport, but this is a god-awful team and it's not just because of youth and experience. There's a disturbing lack of talent.
I preface my comments by saying that my perspective might be skewed, because I am far away and watching the games via a relatively bad internet connection.
However I have to disagree with your take on Telfair, at least against Washington (I didn't see the N.O. game). To put it simply, I was shocked at how poorly he played - shocked, and not merely surprised, because rather than simply having a subpar game, he looked to me like someone who doesn't belong on an NBA court. Terrible shooting at terribly chosen moments, suspect ballhandling (what was that strange foray along the baseline, where he dribbled the ball off of his leg and out of bounds - after Haywood or someone almost stole it?), bad decisions (bringing the ball up court ahead of everyone else and taking it to the hole against a center and a PF?). I guess he has a lot of energy...but (and again I might be wrong here) it seemed like everyone else on the court was looking at him the way people look at the one guy in a pickup game who doesn't belong: his teammates wince; his oppenents' eyes get bigger, sensing an imminent change of possession.
I hate to be so critical, I'm sure he's very talented; hopefully I just caught him in a bad stretch.
Cornelio--
I can't tell you with certainty that you're wrong, because I've been critical of Telfair most of the season. What I will say with confidence is that the Washington game (especially the second quarter) and the New Orleans game are the best back-to-back stretch he's played in a Wolves uniform. The scary part is, both of our impressions may be right.
On the other hand, consider this stat: During the 23:39 Marko Jaric played the point versus Washington, the Wolves were minus -20. During the 24:22 Telfair played, the Wolves were plus +4. Now plus/minus is not always a reliable stat, but I'd say when the position players are the same, the minutes-played are that close, and the outcome disparity is that wide, it's a pretty good indication that Telfair outplayed Jaric. For the game, Telfair was one of only three Wolves players with a plus margin--and the only one who played over 15 minutes.