Road Game #5: Minnesota 103, New Orleans 94
Season record: 2-10
1. Revolt of the Back-Up Point Guards
While would-be Wolves cornerstones Al Jefferson, Rashad McCants and Ryan Gomes had performances ranging from disappointing to dreadful, the squad bagged its first road win primarily on the strength of the inexplicably calm, capable, and confident duo of Marko Jaric and Sebastian Telfair. For the third straight game, Jaric went to the hole with authority (a moderate surprise), supplemented it with an accurate outside J (a large surprise) and consistently well-considered decision-making (huge surprise). It was his best performance in a Timberwolves uniform.
Telfair likewise delivered a performance out of the ether, playing better defense on Chris Paul than Paul's numbers (31 points, 11 assists) might suggest; exercising excellent shot selection (the biggest surprise of all), putting pace into the game without losing the handle, and sinking his free throws in crunch time to ensure that the wire-to-wire Wolves lead never got too precarious. For the night, Jaric shot 8-12 FG and Telfair was 6-9 FG. Jaric had 6 assists, 3 turnovers and 2 steals; Telfair dropped 8 dimes versus 2 miscues and added a steal. In 38:41, Jaric was plus +9 in a 9-point win; in 36:40, Telfair was plus +13.
The key stat there is the respective minutes: Jaric and Telfair spent a lot of time together on the court, ranking first and second on the team in court time. Because they are players of complementary strengths, there was logical potential for synergy, but I also think there is something to be said for a couple of back-up point guards thriving by sharing the point guard responsibilities. That Marko didn't have to guard Paul all night did wonders for his confidence and gave him just enough durability to contribute some (but not nearly as much as the first three quarters) down the stretch. That Jaric is a capable ballhandler who was both burying his J and getting productivity in the paint relieved Bassy of the responsibility of always making something happen and let him settle into more of a natural, "take what they give me" rhythm. For him too, it was his best performance in a Timberwolves (and probably NBA) uniform.
Unfortunately, it should also be noted that Jaric and Telfair both benefitted from not having to play next to McCants much of the time. The ball movement and general flow of the offense was palpably enhanced when McCants was on the sidelines, unable to hoist shots out of rhythm, commit foolish fouls that retarded the sprightly pace, and look to beat his man either off the dribble or with a sudden jumper, both unsuccessful. Shaddy was 3-9 FG with one assist, two turnovers and 4 fouls in 21:38, during which time the Wolves were minus -2.
But the biggest goat of the game for the Wolves was Gomes, whose sour play has gone from temporary mystery to odd dilemma to legitimate concern. He started well with a solid couple of games, resurrected himself a bit in the Cleveland loss and has returned to the tank. He remains a shrewd player in many facets of the game. He knows how to move without the ball and get open, for example, but there isn't a player on this team who has missed more wide open looks thus far this season. After shooting 48.7% and 46.7% his first two years, he is currently at 38.9%. It's not because he's shooting more treys either--his long range percentage is over 40 and comprising an increasing slice of his total shots--not a good sign for someone 6-8, 250. But the real bugaboo tonight was turnovers: He had 5, versus one assist, in just 17:37, which is why he registered a whopping minus -11, meaning the squad was plus +20 in the 30 minutes he sat.
The third of the misplaced cornerstones tonight was Big Al, who was much more productive and conducive to the positive outcome than either Gomes or McCants, but hardly the bedrock commensurate with his talent and contract. Against Atlanta the other night, Jefferson began the night with 18 points on 6-6 FG in the first half and then went 2-7 FG in the second half. Tonight it was 4-6 FG in the first half, with a resounding slam dunk and a nice dish to McCants right out of the gate, and then another 2-7 FG in the second half, beginning with a missed bunny in the paint, a blown crunchtime slam after a gorgeous bounce pass feed from Jaric on a pick and roll (he claimed he was fouled), and a crunchtime bailout on another bunny right in front of the hoop where Tyson Chandler was whistled for the foul (and may indeed have brushed the elbow on the followthrough), but Jeff was hardly going strong to the hoop on the play. The point is, Jefferson was supposed to be the beast in the paint that rendered 4th quarter scoring reliable and we're seeing less evidence that he can overcome defenses designed to take that away. By the way, he missed those two free throws after the Chandler foul, at a time when the Hornets were mounting a serious comeback, and was a minus -6 on the evening in 32:13 of play. That means the Wolves were plus +15 in the 15:47 he sat.
I love Al Jefferson's game. Just not quite as much as I did a week or so ago.
2. Davis for Walker: A Minnesota Steal
When the trade with Miami came down just before the season started, it was easy to look at it in terms of Antoine Walker and Mark Blount, in that in order for us to accept 'Toine's bloated contract, the Heat had to cart away Blount's absurd deal, and his carcass besides. But as the season has progressed, it has become plain that the swap in reality has 'Toine providing more than a few of the things RD used to bring, but with just a fraction of the corrosive bullshit and yo-yo inconsistency.
When Walker, Jaric and Telfair were on the court at the same time tonight, the Wolves produced by far their prettiest offense of the season thus far. The ball zipped around and yet all three players performed with the confident knowledge that they could take their man off the dribble if things bogged down. But even more than Jaric or Telfair, Walker has the experience and the wisdom to enable his teammates. You can tell he's enmeshed in a fairly constant internal war over whether to try and take the game over himself (an impulse he resists more effectively than McCants but still succumbs to a fair bit) or not, but I love that he often resolves it by massaging his ego with the notion that he's the daddy mentor out there, showing the young'uns how to share the ball, spice up the pace, and, above all, compete. The trimphant bellow and fist wave he gave when he drove baseline on the behemoth Chandler, missed the layup short but immediately went back up for a successful tip-in, spoke volumes. 'Toine knew, and Jim Petersen correctly identified, that it was the pivotal play of crunchtime, enlarging the lead to 9 with just a few minutes to go rather than watching it shrink to two possessions with another unanswered Hornet basket. After the Saturday night choke, that would have been a hairy prospect.
And you could see it again, in the half-second the camera caught his disgusted grimace when Jefferson missed the two free throws--Antoine Walker is busting his ass. The guy who played a key role on an NBA championship team just 18 months ago and was feted in glitzy South Beach for his efforts. The guy who then got traded as nothing more than a contract equalizer to a woefully inexperienced club picked to finish last in its conference while playing up in the freezing tundra. He's been something of an all purpose glue guy (with occasional dashes of mustard, relish and catnip, of course). If you can't appreciate the context and the content of his contribution, you're either way too cynical or not paying attention. Tonight he had 17 points, 5 rebounds, an assist, two steals and zero turnovers in 30:28, finishing with a plus +11.
3. More Kudos
Speaking of fabulous glue guys, how about Greg Buckner thriving under the radar tonight? In 29:25, he garnered a team-high 9 rebounds, doled out 6 assists, and was a game-high plus +18. It brought back memories of Buck's very strong opening week for this team. What I most remember is him laying a body on Melo Anthony and working him over like his elbows and knees were rubber hoses. Tonight, Peja Stojakovic got similar treatment. Put simply, the other aspects of Buckner's game seem to elevate a notch when his defensive assignment calls for a good physical scrap. That's not a bad attribute to have on your bench.
Tonight was also a reprise of the vintage Craig Smith, the guy who mud wrestled in the paint for offensive rebounds and improbably fluttery putbacks, committed smart fouls and played pick and rolls like Rhino Astaire. (You get the sense that the Wolves had solid bench play?)
Finally, after numerous telecasts compelling him to paint lipstick (and the rare irreverent mustache) on porcine performances, Wolves' color commentator Jim Petersen was given a relative embarrassment of riches to detail and not surprisingly nailed nearly every one. Only Buckner's stealth performance improperly escaped adornment by Jim Pete's satchel of gold stars. He was lightning quick pointing out the synergy of Jaric and Telfair together, correctly identified the unsung value of Madsen's defense and communications skills, and, perhaps his best insight, lauded the Wolves' vastly improved pick and roll defense. Getting a rare quality performance from this diaper squad ballclub is by itself a pleasant surprise. Receiving astute analysis as it happens is gravy that further enriches the experience.
This team has to win some games because if they don't it is only a matter of time before they start hating each other and becoming ball hogs to pad their stats.I saw some of that last year with Al Jefferson in Boston.
Jefferson's plus minus have been horrible. There is no ball movement when he scores a lot because he is taking all the shots. Mcants is young and some of his shots make me cringe but he is being told to shoot so he is doing what is asked.
I think a lot of people that hate Walker hated him before he ever got here. They have never watched him without the hate and still refuse to now. All I know is that kid is a winner., He won in College and last year in the NBA and he was the reason they beat NJ. Shaq and Wade were in a lot of foul trouble and he stepped up big time.
The point of playing in the NBA is to WIN GAMES. Celtics fans have been waiting for half this team to develop for the last 4 years and they haven't. Al Jefferson is averaging a double double but in the end it isn't helping this team win games.
I'm hoping this won't be narrow because it's a new comment.
Britt noted that Jefferson watches film of Duncan. Great move by Big Al. If Al can hit that Duncan bank shot, he's in business, serious All-Star and winning championships business.
Even though defenders don't respect his jump shot, big Al still gets past even quick defenders with is methodical foot work and fakes.
I personally don't think Brewer needs to be defined as a "two" or "three". He's a talented perimeter player that should be put in a position to succeed by the coaching straff *based on matchups.*
Most NBA SFs are perimeter players. Brewer shoul be fine against these SF types, especially if Jefferson is at PF. However, if he's going up against a more physical SF (Jamison, James, Gay), them move him over to SG.
I do think his physical attributes, namely incredibly long arms, give him more of an advantage against shorter players, but that does not mean he can't be effective at the three.
I think it's already been mentioned here, but I'll say it again. Almost all of Brewer's minutes have come with either Jefferson or Walker at center. He hasn't had the advantage of playing on any of the Wolves better 5 man units, instead playing where Walker and Jefferson are at their worst. It's no wonder he has a low +/-.
The above post on Brewer is by me. . .forgot to fill out the top.
Did anyone else hear Jim P say Jefferson puts in a full workout during shootaround even on gamedays or did I just dream that? Could that have something to do with him tending to disappear in the second half consistently. I am all for hard work (for other people) but maybe this is too much for him.
I like that Antoine is helping the team win and I think we need him to keep winning anything at this point but can anyone think of a good fit where we can get something for him? I can't think of anyone who could use him and have anything left to give us.
This was my first chance to watch a game in quite some time and I picked a good one. I've been impressed every time I've seen Telfair this season, albeit few. I think he could be a good probing point guard, he certainly has the quickness. Did anyone else notice how many times Telfair was fouled with no call? I thought he should have gotten at least 4 or 5 blocking calls, it looks like the referrees crackdown on blocking may not have been stressed as much this offseason.
As for Toine, I like what he's bringing to the table right now but I'm hoping some contenders are taking notice and one will trade us some picks and a shorter contract for his rights. We're 2 and 10, we're not making the playoffs, I'm not sure it's good for the long run for Toine to be playing 30 while Brewer registers the DNP.
Some absolutely beautiful offensive possesions last night where everyone touched the ball and someone got a wide open look in the end. Definitely times where they displayed the best ball movement I've seen with Witt at the helm. Then of course, NO made a run and we stagnated to one on one bullshit.
Last night is one more reason to love NBA basketball. I'll tell you what, the roller coaster ride sucks if your expectations are high. It can't be too much fun to be a Spurs fan and watch your team lose to Sacremento. Nor was it very much fun to be a Wolves fan the last three years with KG. But watching the Wolves beat New Orleans is fun. Especially, knowing there are many more stretches ahead of incompetent basketball for them.
I'll tell you what. I've always loved Jaric and I'm not sure why. And, I've always liked Walkers game, especially when he was with the Celtics. Wlaker may no longer be playing for the Heat, but I'm sure he is counting his blessings this morning after the news of Sean Taylor and the fact he played a significant part in an NBA victory last night. The guy loves to play basketball and he might just be the veteran this team needs - he might even prefer to be here rather be traded to a contending team considering he already has his ring. I mean, how much fun can it really be for Howard in Dallas averaging 10 mpg, 1.1 ppg and 2 rebounds. He could be playing significant minutes here next to Jefferson and giving veteran leadership as well.
Jarics spastic play is endearing and there is a spot for him on any NBA roster for a coach that knows how to use him. Telfair and Jaric might just be the key to a Jaric emergence. Either that, or the Brazilian supermodel.
What's funny is how little all of us really know. After the weekend we were all sure Wittman hadn't a clue with his use of Maddog over Doleac - his insistence that McCants shoot more and not less - his use of Jefferson at the 5, etc. Just when we are all ready to lay it all out, along come the veterans Walker, Buckner, and Jaric teaming with Jefferson and Telfair. Throw in a little Maddog and sit both Green and Brewer the entire game (solving the dilemma of whom among the two to devote minutes to). Wittman sits McCants and goes with the backcourt of Jaric and Telfair, not because of shot selection, but because McCants is playing without confidence that Telfair and Jaric are currently showing. As long as McCants plays scared, he should not be in there and Wittman sits him down and goes with the guys who want to be out there. Those guys happen to be the veterans, AJ and, surprise, Telfair.
What will December bring.
Ahhhh, You gott love it.
Ben Udrih had 27 points and 5 assists against the Spurs last night :(
Good idea or bad to send Brewer and/or Richard to the D-League for a while so that they can at least get some playing time?
Personally, I'd rather have them play in actual NBA games. However, with Wittman/our Front Office's penchant for not playing rookies and having a very inconsistent rotation, who knows how much burn they'll be getting, if any.
Britt, I think props should go to Maddog for his effort in the first quarter (well all quarters he played). He played with grit and energy; showing hard on pick-and-rolls then hustling back to his man in the block. This set the tone for the whole game. When Maddog got into foul trouble (he looked a little winded didn't he?) Witt subbed in Smith and gave us not only big boy in the middle to harass Chandler or whoever was in the paint, but also nice rebounding skills and a deft shooting touch that Maddog doesn't have. I think that's the kind of performance that the BrainTrust is talking about when the say smashmouth (god is that neologism irritating).
As you mentioned, I was shocked that not one, not two, but *three* woofies where hitting the J at such a torrid pace. I mean, come on!, > 60%! That won't happen any time soon but it was really enjoyable. 'Toine's treys were really nice to see coming naturally in transition; no jacking up three's because the offensive spacing is f'ed up. But it was Jaric's game that sealed the deal. Jim Pete mentioned that Jaric was smiling for the first time in the two years he's been in Minnie. Maybe we do have a serviceable 1 after all.
I'm really surprised we won this one :D
I'm also very surprised with Jaric and Telfair playing together working good. Now that you think about it, it actually makes since as you explain in the article. That's very nice to hear if you've got those two on the bench behind Foye and Mccants (when foye gets healthy again).
Let's hope mccants gets a bit more consistant, maybe when foye returns :d.
It's also a bit scary to know that some of the most important guys (buckner and 'toine) in this win are probably not gonna be around next year...
this was me
"...but there isn't a player (Gomes) on this team who has missed more wide open looks thus far this season..." -- with the notable exception of the aforementioned Shaddy.
CA--
Actually I considered Shaddy when I made that statement. Gomes almost never shoots with a man on him (one of the things I like about him) yet has still missed 62 shots (41-103). Jefferson has missed 95 (103-198) and McCants 84 (60-144), but I'd argue that both often shoot in traffic. Gomes is the current king of the open clank.
Wow... I never saw this one coming. I thought we would get worked, especially since Paul was back. I guess I just don't get what's up with our team when we easily beat New Orleans (which is a damn good team) on the road, yet we blow a 20 point lead to the Hawks at home. It's honestly baffling. I don't think I'm mentally ready for this type of roller coasting for the next 2,3, or possibly more years. I'm sicking of us losing to the teams we should beat, and vice-versa. With that said, it was a great win tonight. Great team ball and I think our guys played very well for the most part. One thing I would like to point out though, is that with the exception of Paul, it didn't look like anyone came to play at all for the Hornets. Maybe teams are underestimating us and we'll pick up a few extra wins because our opponents won't be mentally prepared?
Marko played awesome tonight. I was really impressed with him. He was a floor general (shocking, I know) and was hitting his shots. I think it also helped that he didn't have to play with McCants or guard Chris Paul.
Telfair also played very well. His passing was awesome and he was finally finishing at the rim, which is what we need him to do. Wish we had his option for next year on the cheap, who knows if he'll sign somewhere else or not. My guess is that someone will overpay him since he's only 21 years old.
Anyhow, the backcourt of Marko and Telfair playing at the same time was really nice. I thought they complemented each other well. I like.
Walker was steady and hit some big shots. I'm liking him more and more as the games go on. I can't help myself. And to think we got him for Davis and Blount?!?! Wow... awesome.
Jefferson needs more freakin touches! My goodness!
A true center is by far the biggest and most gaping hole on this team (if Theo is unable to play.) Madsen/Doleac/Richard will NOT cut it. We are getting no production out of our center so far this season, sans Theo. Madsen's hustle and heart doesn't suffice, at least not for a starting center in the NBA. He's fine as a 10 or 15 minute per game backup. And to think I wanted him starting. The thing is, when your other option is Doleac, it's lose-lose.
McCants did nothing to make me like him even one teeny iota more. He disrupts the flow of our offense so terribly whenever he gets big minutes and jacks up his shots with impunity. Ugh.
Buckner had a nice all-around game. I like the 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
One thing that does concern me... are we in a youth movement or not? I mean, GG, Richard, and Brewer had 0 combined minutes. Our vets had major minutes (Marko - 39, Walker - 30, Buckner - 29) I guess if that's what it takes to win... but is winning more important than developing? Ahhh I don't really know. It just doesn't seem like we have a solid longterm plan or a lot of direction. Are we playing these vets so that we can showcase them for a trade? Are we trying to win as many games as possible at the expense of the youngsters getting minutes? I give up.
We aren't in first place in the Derrick Rose sweepstakes anymore... shucks.
Total Attendence = 8,393! That's crazy since New Orleans is actually a really good time. I don't get it.
Maybe the fact that the whole city got flooded just last year had something to do with it? :)
Actually, I don't think so. First off, it happened two years ago. Also, I don't mean to be insensitive or anything, but stuff like this (sporting attendence) is usually pretty consistent, especially when it comes to "good" teams. The majority of the fans that go to games typically have a lot more expendable income than the majority of the people that were affected by the flooding.
I wouldn't think the flooding has much affect on attendence at this point. Maybe right after it happened... but that is why they played in Oklahoma City last year.
The flooding has a huge effect on attendance, the census bureau estimates that the city has had a 53% population decrease since Katrina. Even the most generous 2007 estimates put the population at less than 60% of what it was. And NOLA was already a relatively small city. Combine that with the fact that it's very poor (over 40% of those under 18 live below the poverty line), and you have the reason for the consistently low attendance, and the fact that the franchise is constantly threatening to relocate.
Yeah, but were the "very poor" people going to the game in the first place? My guess is that most of the people that have not returned to the city were not previously attending the Hornet's games.
It's a common misperception that only poor people left NOLA after the hurricane - much of the capital has too, to the benefit of cities like Houston, Charlotte, etc. Many of the businesses that moved away "temporarily" simply never came back. All this from a city that, as I said, was relatively small and poor to begin with, and has a history of difficulty with sports franchises - there's a reason the Utah franchise is called the Jazz, and it's not the abundance of great trumpet players from Salt Lake.
Come to think of it, I think I know why the attendence was so bad. It was because they were playing the WOLVES on a weeknight. My buddy and I have season tickets and we go to almost every game. We've noticed how much worse the Wolves attendence is on weekdays against "bad" teams (aka teams with bad records or no real stars.) Anyhow, it just dawned on me that probably fans of every other team in the league consider the Wolves to be a very "bad" team, not worth watching. Plus, it was a Monday night. That probably explains it.
fans "consider" the wolves to be a bad team because they are a bad team
First of all, my apologies for the wrong date thing.
College wolf, the attendance in NO is consistantly low, not only against bad teams. Though your logic makes sense it's not like that in NO .. at least that's what I think.
Fair enough... we'll probably never really know for sure. The attendence (and for all teams) is probably a lot more complicated than any one issue.
In my last sentence, I meant to say that "New Orleans is actually a really good TEAM."
I suppose it is a good TIME though as well. Either way, I can't believe they have the worst average attendence in the league. I'd love to watch that team in person (for presumably cheap prices) if I lived in New Orleans.
Mr. Robson:
I'd be interested to know whether or not the Jaric/Bassy backcourt was part of the game plan or if Wittman got the idea from watching Paul and Jackson team up for the better part of the game? I kind of got the sense that a light went off with the guy after seeing Mo-Pete falter early and watching Scott quickly go to Jackson to allow Paul to score without worrying about ball-handling duties. Last night's backcourt rotation of Jaric/Telfair/Buckner was surprisingly effective and I think the Wolves would be hard-pressed to come up with something better until Foye gets back. If anything, it should itch Wittman's trigger finger with McCants above and beyond existing irritation.
Also, do you know what is going on with Brewer? After looking at the game flows and 5 man rotation stats, it's pretty obvious that he's a last option at the 3 right now; only seeing the court when Jefferson and Walker are at the 5 and 4 and Gomes has played his way off the court. Do you know if there is any chance at all of him seeing time at the 2? I'm all for completely cutting Shad out of game action, but I don't think it will happen; is it equally improbable that Brewer could see time at the off-guard?
S&P--
I think a variety of circumstances were involved. This was the third or fourth straight strong performance from Jaric, McCants was off his game once again, Paul and Jackson were an early tandem, and Telfair was proving to be a better defender on Paul.
The Wolves threw Brewer in for heavy minutes against Caron Butler and Peja with disastrous results; before the next game, he was late for the shootaround. He's been relatively MIA ever since. I don't know if a decision was made to have him bulk up before burning his confidence against NBA gristle at the 3, or if the tardiness was symptomatic of some greater problem (I have absolutely NO evidence to suspect that it is), or if the braintrust realized that if you win only one out of ten, the culture of ineptitude overwhelms the positives of giving youth experience.
I am not for cutting Shaddy out completely; nor do I automatically want to flip him the keys to the off guard position. Brewer is long and dogged enough to play against some small forwards, and if he can handle the multiple assignments, I'd swing him between the 2 and 3.
Sounds like a good opportunity to insert my daily McCants defense (and yes, he's trying my patience over the last two weeks). How can anyone argue for giving Brewer McCant's minutes? McCants has been inconsistent, but Brewer has been consistently bad. Even his best outings have been on the level of sub-par games from McCants.
I like that Wittman pulled McCants last night, and I liked the fact that McCants, though clearly dissapointed, remained supportive of his teammates on the bench. He didn't sulk and he was yelling encouragement and slapping high fives at the breaks. McCants is a smart player and wants to get better. As long as Wittman keeps sitting him when he is not performing, I have no doubts he will come around. He remains one of our most talented players, and our best option at the '2'.
Brewer, on the other hand, is just over matched against a lot of the leagues 3s (and doesn't shoot well enough for the '2' spot). I agree with Britt that you have to sit him against some teams due to unfavorable match ups, as well as the necessity to win a game every once in a while. He'll be ok too. You play him when the match ups are right, to reward a good practice, or when the game is out of hand. The guy needs to add a lot of weight, but he'll get 15-20 minutes a night (just not every night).
Patrick,
I agree with your defense of McCants - and Brewer, too for that matter.
I think it is sometimes too easy to focus on the numbers and individual games and come to a conclusion on a individual way too fast concerning their effectiveness in the NBA.
This collection of Wolves is not going to win games this year - nor are they going to make progress from game to game. It will be one step forward and then two steps back for awhile - then two steps forward and one step back. You cannot judge the teams progress from game to game. Rather you have to see progress from one month to the next. If they win three games in Dec - thats progress. 4 in January and 5 in February etc and suddenly they have around 25 wins at the end of the season. This is the optimistic scenario and , they will likely have some ups and downs from month to month, too. But, there was no reason to expect more than 2 wins in November. There is a reason to expect between 6 and 10 wins in March and April, though.
The same can be said when judging the individual play of every player, with the exception of Walker, Buckner, Madsen and, possibly Jaric. The rest are young and we can only judge their progress over the course of the season. It is too early to get really excited about Telfair or even Jefferson for that matter. And Likewise, it is too early to give up on McCants, Brewer, or even Green.
As the wise sage Mike Tice once said "Enjoy the season...."
Thanks for the voice of reason Andy B., and not just because you agree with my views on McCants and Brewer.
Everyone has preconceived notions of how this team should play and what each guy's role is, and we lose sight of the fact that this is a very young team that has only been playing together for a few months. Maybe Gerald Green will the starting two guard in April, maybe Telfair will be better than Foye, maybe Jefferson is best suited as a third option? Anything is possible. We just have to sit back and let it unfold, and take some enjoyment in the unpredictability and the fact that there is no where to go but up.
Patrick--
I have to chuckle at this last comment. If memory serves, aren't you the guy who wants to talk future draft picks and scenarios in the middle of summer?
Yeah, I think it goes without saying that nobody knows. But the more we see, the more informed our speculation. And if we all keep an open mind, the more we can make adjustments on our preconceived notions--look at my comments related to Gomes and Walker just in the past three weeks. Now does that mean I've given up on Gomes and give Walker a free pass? Of course; nor do I think McCants is even close to being written off.
There are individuals games that these treys are designed to break down into specific components for the enjoyment and edification of all. But if we knew all the longterm answers, this would become a very boring and insufferably smug place to visit.
Guilty as charged on the midsummer draft speculation and trade scenarios.
But, my mood has changed considerably since the KG trade. We were a team (if you could even call it that) struggling to retool around an aging superstar. For me, and I would guess for others, there was a real sense of desperation in terms of the roster.
I am now becoming more content to just watch it develop, try to find the positives in the players we have and hope for progress.
I am not trying to rip on anybody for going off on players for short term performance. What would we write about if we didn't do that?
All that I am trying to say is that the team we have seen over the past month is not the team we will have even a month from now let alone a year from now. Guys are going to step up, fade, mesh, get traded, etc.
I get the sense from a lot of entries that people extrapolating performances from these early season games too far out. For how long this team has been together, this is still training camp.
I see what I think is an encouraging trend:
In the Wolves' first nine games, the team led or tied during 168 minutes (39%) and trailed 264 minutes (61%).
In the Wolves' last three games they led or tied 119 minutes (83%) and trailed for just 25 minutes (17%).
Over the season to date its almost exactly a 50%-50% split - 287 tied/ahead and 289 behind.
Could this be a statistical signal that the team is starting to gel? I would be interested in people's reaction to this data. My numbers are solid, but not perfect. I scrolled through each game's play-by-play on nba.com and tracked the minutes.
AKA: this isn't a very good stat because it doesn't take into account the size of lead/deficit that the Wolves find themselves up against or the quickness in which this number can change. For instance, they lead for 3 quarters against Atlanta and in the 4th...not so much. You want to take a look at +/- and 5 team rotation stats. Once you start to see the - numbers inching closer to neutral and corresponding and consistent 5 man rotations, you will see the team starting to gel. Team effectiveness should be viewed a lot like hockey lines; how you play with your teammates vis-a-vis your opponent's score is the most important indicator of how well you are playing.
The Wolves desperately need a legitimate point guard (the promise of Randy Foye and the nice game by Marko tonight notwithstanding.) McHale should call Memphis and make them an offer for Michael Conley Jr. Lowry is playing fantastic for them, so this makes Conley expendable. The Wolves should not hesitate to package some of their players for the true point guard they need, even if he too is a bit of a project. You can't teach quickness or court vision, and Conley has both.
It looks like we're headed for a pretty good PG (Rose or Mayo) as it is, so we should probably try for a young big or another draft pick with Walker.
I've been liking Jaric of late (what's not to like) as the future backup (for PG). Somebody get him to Dr Phil so he stays hooked up with that model.
I absolutely love the afore mentioned conley idea, but in regards to the upcoming draft michael beasley (6'9'' and about 235lbs.)is a guy who i have more interest in than rose or mayo. I say that because of the 6'4'' range surplus currently on our squad and that beasley is a freak that would allow for some very interesting floor combinations.
Secondarily if anyone has an opinion about hasheem thabeet (uconn) i would be interested. he is 7'3'' and at 265lbs. he has very good athleticism and could add 10-20lbs and still be as nimble (as least that's what i read).
Long term, I agree - we need a point guard. But I don't think we can be clamoring for a PG the night after we had our most competent performance from the Jaric/Telfair 2-headed beast. And I think Jaric does best with a revolving door of models, rather than just one at a time.
Seriously though - being PG is more than just bringing the ball upcourt and passing it off - there's a team effort to it. It's why we've been playing so well with Jaric, Walker, and Telfair recently - with 2 of those 3 on the court, it gives us a great opportunity to quickly rotate the ball around. But McCants and Brewer? Much more deliberate - they're looking for their own opportunity rather than mindlessly kicking the ball out (which they should be doing). I think this has more to do with Brewer's lack of PT than his defense.
Also, not to nitpick, but I didn't see Wittman getting props, even after benching Rashad. I agree with someone who posted earlier that McCants at least wasn't sulking, which is a good sign. I think Witt had a great game substitution-wise, ignoring this boards' insane callings for Doleac, going with healthy doses of Craig Smith and Mark Madsen, riding the surprising chemistry of a Jaric-Telfair backcourt, as well as keeping Walker on the court during our 4th-quarter collapse. Sure, Toine has been playing great, but when the chips are down, he's liable to start chucking, but instead he kept us in the game. I agree that he looks like our best offseason acquisition, but we're still in the honeymoon phase, and he's probably playing for a trade elsewhere (can we send him back to Ainge for Rondo?)
A few things:
1- Brewer is not going to be able to play the 3 this year because of his size. It's just not going to happen. He got lit up by Butler and Peja and he was being "disciplined" (wink, wink) during the Wolves' games with LeBron and Melo. Defensively he's just not cutting it. I'm not rosy at all about his current abilities:
http://www.canishoopus.com/blogs/stopnpop/2007/11/26/putting-things-pers...
" * The two leading factors for a negative +/- are Jefferson playing out of position and Brewer being on the court.
Brewer has given the team a modest offensive bump while on the court, but his defense and rebounding are both below off court averages for the team. He has shown a modest ability to get his own shot in the lane, but most of his shots are assisted jumpers. He’s quickly showing himself to be a ‘tweener; a defensive stopper who can’t defend or stop the 3. It’s time to see what Brewer can do at the 2. The five-man floor unit stats do not lie; Brewer is not an effective sub at the 3 and a large chunk of his playing time can be attributed to Ratliff being hurt and Wittman’s decision not to play DNP Doleac at the 5. Brewer gets on the court when Jefferson or Walker line up at the 5; otherwise, he hardly sees the court. Let’s start seeing him as McCants’ back-up because if and when Ratliff returns, Brewer will see even less playing time than he is right now. "
Brewer was a wing man at Florida who often got the assignment of guarding the other teams' shooting guard. UCLA fans should be familiar with his treatment of Aaron Affalo for 2 consecutive years. His perimeter defense was what always shone through along with his deceptive ball handling skills and athleticism. Beyond that, he shot 47% from the floor in college and 34% from behind the line. It is not unreasonable to project similar stats to the pro level minus 3-5% for adjustment on the 3 ball. I don't think it is beyond the range of possibility to expect him to be able to hit between 41-45% from the floor at the 2. If he does so, he'll have plenty of company (career numbers): Goran Giricek (44%), Jason Terry (44%), AI (42%), Brandon Roy (45%), Delonte West (45%). Those are the starting 2s in the division. Compare them to the 3s and you can see why it's not just this year that you should be concerned about a buck-80 scrawny kid going up against your Mellos of the world. Can he hit the occasional 3, drive at Big Al's post defender, and be enough of a threat
(by jumper or dribble) to not allow his man to sag down to double team the post? If so, he's got a better shot at the 2 than the 3.
2- If the Wolves are going to be free agent players in 2 years, they have some tough choices to make about Smith, Green, Gomes, and McCants. They can't keep them all with escalating deals and expect to make a run at a moderately successful free agent. I think the tough choices here are Smith and Gomes while the easy ones are McCants and Green. A 6 nothing 2 who is dependent on his athleticism with a microfracture under his belt and a 2+ year track record of being unable to play team ball gets me about as excited as winning a dunk contest. I'll be even less excited should the Wolves pick up or improve upon his 09/10 $3.6 million qualifying offer. That's a huge year for free agency and we'll have Walker, Ratliff, and Howard all the way off the books. Depending on luck, we'll also have buyouts for players like Marko, Buckner, and Madsen. We're sitting at $35 mil on the books right now with 9 contracts. Shad can bring it to $32 and 8. With upcoming first rounders added in (8-12 mil depending on placement and the Miami heat), we could be looking at around $40 with 11 players and without Shad. Even if we took a flyer on Gomes or Telfair, we'd have over $12 mil to throw around in a deep free agent year. Is McCants worth more than the cap space he could open up in the 09/10 season? Is he more valuable to the team than Marko's $6 mil at the 2 with Foye/Telfair/Buckner rounding out the guard rotation? McCants' off/on court numbers do not trend in his favor (the assisted FGs for the team jump from 47% to 59% when he sits on the bench), he doesn't draw enough fouls, and almost 1/2 of his shots come off his own dribble, sans assist...which means he monkeys around a bit before jacking up a shot without making enough or getting to the line. No other player on the team has the potential to tear up the teams' offense like Shaddy.
3- Doleac is important because he allows Jefferson to remain in position. If you look at the 5 man rotation stats, there are two things that really put the Wolves in a bad spot: Jefferson playing the 5 and Brewer playing the 3. Generally, at least for Brewer, these things accompany one another. If you can get 15 from Doleac, 15 from Mad Dog, and then let Big Al play out of position for the rest, it should be enough until if and when Ratliff gets back. But you can't continue to give Jefferson 30-35 minutes at the 5 because he'll continue to have ridiculous - numbers that even if they win, will be out of whack with the team.
This team needs a lot of things. It needs everything but a 4 at this point (we still don't know what Foye can do at the 1...if anything). If Big Al is going to be a cornerstone, I think the Wolves owe it to him to address the frontcourt before the point; especially if Marko/Foye/Telfair/Buckner works out as a backcourt rotation. Big Al needs a center or an athletic 3. I myself am a big Josh Smith fan and I think you're looking at a similar player with Michael Beasley. Otherwise, you hope that Hibbert isn't the only other big man to come out of college this year and that Pat Riley gets hit by a truck and the Heat make the playoffs in the last spot so you have the 15 pick.
PS: I'm still holding out fantasy blog land hope that the Wolves will magically clear enough contract to overbid on Josh Smith, pry him away from Atlanta and then draft Derrick Rose with their 1st pick while packaging next year's 1 and the Miami pick for Kosta Kofous. Now THAT'S some crazy dreaming.
Good stuff S&P, although here I'll agree with Patrick that the total career minutes, the thrown together roster, existent absences due to injuries and all the rest create uncertainty most of all--who knows which of these statistically logical things you cite will continue to trend and which will capsize with evolving circumstances.
Nevertheless, I appreciate the contribution. Plus, I wanted to see how narrow the columns would get if I added another comment.
narrower....
...and narrower :)
Mine's thinner.
Stop n Pop - The stats you cite from 82games are an excellent means to better understand the current snapshot of the Wolves. Your detailed analysis of those stats and many of the conclusions you draw based on them are compelling.
The difference with the totally unsophisticated and imprecise nugget I happened upon this afternoon is that it may be indicative of a trend for the team. Aheadness is always better than behindness whether by 1 point or 21. The past three games, although resulting in only one win, were spent 4 to 1 ahead vs 2 to 3 ahead the first nine games. That tells me the team is doing more things right more of the time.
82 games is great for gaining understanding on what happened and what choices might be best going forward. The stat I cited, though utterly raw, may have some predictive value.
AK--
There were a couple of things I liked about your stat.
You came up with it yourself, not the first nor last time we'll see your ingenuity in action. (Although like most of us, you can just come on here and spout too.)
You're a season ticket holder actively seeking out ways to be optimistic about the team. Whether your admittedly unsophisticated research will likewise continue to trend or capsize, you put your money where your heart is.
AKA:
"Aheadness is always better than behindness whether by 1 point or 21."
...that is exactly right. I think you could make your stat even better by breaking it down by quarters. I shouldn't have said it wasn't a good stat. It does show that the Wolves are able to hold their own against opponents for long stretches of time and that is what keeps me coming back for more...even if they do continue to play that rotten Tar Heel at the 2.
I'm a stickler for method; if you have the right lineups, positions, offense, etc on the floor, the result will follow. However, that probably comes from coaching 5th graders at the Y rather than going to the Target Center where ticket money (rightfully) focuses me a bit more on results (I have a 10 game Wolves package...which, admittedly, was a bit hard to swallow this year even with the low prices.)
I'll also admit that I throw method out the window when I go to the games. I just want to see the Wolves win in person and be excited about it...and no matter how bad the game, I always walk across the street to O'Donnovan's thinking about how I could find a silver lining in what just took place. I frequently find myself saying "well, they led for 3 quarters." If it's good enough to keep me coming back, I shouldn't have said it wasn't a good stat. I'm sure a psychologist has some sort of name for that type of projection :)
AK, S&P, Patrick, etc.
I think its great that we all find something positive about being a Wolves fan. I loved KG and I still do, but it was taxing the last three years. I agree we need to get Jefferson some help down low, but don't you find it at all strange that this was the common refrain for KG over his career here along with finding a true PG. Somethings never change.
But, at least, we have some flexibility and some draft choices and I just feel refreshed this year with possibilities.
I think Britt's criticisms of McCants are right on and have to be made, but I sometimes get the sense that some people take it further. I still see him as a young talented player with an upside and still being coachable. He'll have to be sat down at times and how he responds will determine if he has a place on this team. The jury is still out, but he has not yet reached the Ricky Davis stage. Then Again, I still believed in Ricky 'till he walked off on Casey - and Blount, till I stopped believing in Ricky.
S&P,
I was reading something on Eric Musselman and what he has been doing lately and he mentioned coaching he sons that are around 8 - 9 yo. He said its not much different than coaching NBA players. You run into exactly the same kind of issues.
Anyway, keep up the good commentary, all.
"I was reading something on Eric Musselman and what he has been doing lately and he mentioned coaching he sons that are around 8 - 9 yo. He said its not much different than coaching NBA players. You run into exactly the same kind of issues."
...I obviously can't speak for coaching NBA players, but I can tell you that one of the reasons I dislike McCants so much is because each year I get a Shad on my team...usually with the loudest and most obnoxious parent/s. I can see how it wouldn't be much different than the NBA. Each year I get 1 or 2 kids on the entire team who can actually handle the ball. Each year I get 1 or 2 kids who understand the importance of being able to set picks and then roll to the basket. Each year I even get 1 or 2 kids who understand the importance of the 3 point stance and being able to to pivot correctly. I also get 1 (it's never more) kid who thinks he can do all of the above because he has enough natural talent to make the other kids go along with him because he can get results (albeit infrequent ones) without having to go through the basics. 9 times out of 10 this kid is egged on by a father who is trying to re live the glory days of AAU ball. 9 times out of 10 the kid has some sort of twisted victim/empowered personality mix that appeals to less dominant/talented 5th graders as being cool. Shad seems like this type of character. Thankfully, my oldest daughter starts basketball next year and I'm moving over to the girls side of the gym. I'm hoping it will be a bit different than the boys....especially the boys' parents.
This is probably a fairly obvious point, but re: Jefferson's relative ineffectiveness over the last few games: I don't think it's any coincidence that the Wolves have just played teams with extremely athletic guys at the 4-5 spots (Chandler, Smith, Camby) - all freakish athletes who have in common the fact that they get off the floor incredibly fast.
I agree that Jefferson is more effective at the 4 than the 5. But I wonder if a bigger issue isn't him having a particular aversion to playing against this type of defender. Obviously nobody has an easy time scoring against these guys. But these particular difficulties highlight the need for Jefferson, a good but not a great athlete, to take someone like Tim Duncan as a model for development: that is, to become a guy who beats you as much with his brain (head-fakes, quick catch-and-release, incredible footwork, smart use of the body) as with his power or nice J.
Obviously Jefferson is hurt by the fact that he doesn't have another big out there to take some of the scoring pressure off - i.e. who can flash to the elbow when both of the opponent's bigs are sagging on Jefferson (this is of course another plea to give Doleac a chance). But if the wolves are going to have any chance at all to win a few games, they're going to need him to score and get to the line consistently, no matter who's defending him.
Cornelio--
Funny you should mention Duncan as a possible Jefferson role model. This is what he told us in the locker room after the loss to New Orleans earlier this month, in response to a question from Myles, a freelancer doing a story for Slam Magazine: "Don't tell Tim, but every game I'm off, I watch Tim to look at the footwork and other things he does."
It's crazy how narrow this is getting lol...
Britt - Anyway you can convince the powers in charge to revert the comments back to a single line with the newest posts last? I think that is the easiest way to follow everything that is going on. Please don't take it as a complaint because I've got nothing against you.