Atlantic Division
1. Boston Celtics (1st Playoff seed)
Why: Three yeoman stars all accoustomed to carrying the load. A pair of role starters, Perkins and Rondo, who are better than advertised. Glue guys for points (House) and defense (Posey) off the bench.
Worries: Mediocre coach, Ray Allen's ankles.
Overrated: The plus-30 ages of the troika of stars.
Underrated: The amount of fun Celtic fans are going to have watching three long-suffering stars and a pair burgeoning young talents come together.
Wild Card: Can Tony Allen back up Rondo at the point?
2. Toronto Raptors (6)
Why: Beneath the radar synergy of unsung United Nations crew. Great depth. Capable coach still learning and improving.
Worries: Flash in the pan overachievers leads to mediocrity for one star team, league figures out tendency of newfangled Euros.
Overrated: Nothing. How Canadian.
Underrated: Bosh's consistency, Calderon's grit as backup point guard.
Wild card: Bargnani--breakout season or just steady improvement?
3. New Jersey Nets (7)
Why: Aging stars, lopsided roster, not enough talent in the paint. Sense time has passed before it ever really arrived.
Worries: Is a healthy Krstic a zero-sum game versus last year's Mikki Moore surprise? Jefferson's post-injury hops, Carter's post-contract attitude.
Overrated: Vince Carter, tin plated golden boy.
Underrated: Kidd's 8.2 rebounds per game.
Wild Card: Jamaal Magloire, in the perfect situation to prove he's not washed up.
4. New York Knicks (13)
Why: The roster is still mashed potatoes, pickles and ice cream. From Dolan through Isiah down to Nate Robinson, too much bullshit, not enough glue.
Worries: Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph? Are you shitting me? Jamal Crawford and Stefon Marbury? Who's the level-headed guy, Quinton Richardson?
Underrated: David Lee, the patience of Knicks fans.
Overrated: Marbury's selfishness, Robinson's long term value.
Wild Card: How long can Curry and Randolph peacefully, if not productively, co-exist?
5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)
Why: Way too inexperienced, with not enough talent.
Worries: Is Iguodala merely a poor man's Iverson in more ways than one, dominating the ball while nobody else develops?
Overrated: The once stellar defense of Samuel Dalembert, the endurance of Reggie Evans playing starter's minutes.
Underrated: Kyle Korver, more than just a great gunner.
Wild Card: Louis Williams eventually taking over for Andre Miller at the point; the potential breakout of Willie Green.
Central Division
1. Chicago Bulls (2)
Why: Great young nucleus gels another year, both sides know what to expect in the Big Ben situation.
Worries: Ben Gordon doesn't cede to Luol Deng in pecking order; Noah flops behind Wallace; Skiles wears out welcome in year five, Nocioni's mental makeup, post playoff collapse.
Overrated: Wallace's defense as senior citizen, without 'Sheed.
Underrated: Hinrich's jumper, Sefolosha's defense.
Wild Card: Ty Thomas, breakout or yo yo round two?
2. Detroit Pistons (3)
Why: Flip Saunders is a regular season wizard; Jason Maxiell is ready for prime time, Billups on a mission.
Worries: Age; McDyess or foul-prone 'Sheed in the pivot; Tayshaun Prince's mental makeup, post playoff bricklaying; the tread of Rip Hamilton's tires.
Overrated: Billups, who is very good but not great.
Underrated: Hamilton's defense, Wallace's defense, new pickup Jarvis Hayes, who shouldn't be buried on the bench.
Wild Card: A healthy McDyess for an entire season
3. Cleveland Cavs (5)
Why: No more ambushes, a dreadful offense, contract snits with Varejao and Pavlovik, versus King James being another year better.
Worries: Z's motor, Hughes's fragility, LeBron's loyalty.
Overrated: Drew Gooden
Underrated: Coach Mike Brown
Wild Card: Daniel Gibson
4. Milwaukee Bucks (9)
Why: Weird team with no identity, wasted two years with hapless Terry Stotts. Bogut and Villanueva could boom or bust; ditto Yi who won't boom for at least a year or two.
Worries: Villanueva's injuries, Michael Redd's horrible horrible defense, having to play Yi before he's ready to keep him happy.
Overrated: Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons--mediocre, not good.
Underrated: Point guard Mo Williams; worth every penny of that fat deal.
Wild Card: Bogut and Williams seizing the reins, Redd letting them.
5. Indiana Pacers (14)
Why: Tinsley and O'Neal already over the hill; the grotesque Golden State trade; a miniaturized Marquis Daniels.
Worries: A slew of bad contracts makes rebuilding impossible; O'Neal demands trade; Tinsley packs it in; free fall accelerates.
Overrated: Mike Dunleavy's potential.
Underrated: Jeff Foster's grit and savvy.
Wild Card: Danny Granger as this year's Kevin Martin.
Southeast Division
1. Washington Wizards (4)
Why: Gilbert Arenas, a kinder, gentler, funnier Kobe. An underrated bench. Better defense led by DeShawn Steverson.
Worries: Soft in the paint without Etan Thomas. Arenas emulates the bad Kobe, Jamison starts his decline.
Overrated: Jamison's glue-guy capability.
Underrated: Antonio Daniels and Andray Blatche off the bench.
Wild Cards: The health of Darius Songalia; the emergence of rook Nick Young.
2. Miami Heat (8)
Why: Too much throttle from Pat Riley, not enough gas on the roster. Shaq old; Wade dinged.
Worries: Shaq old; Wade dinged, Ricky Davis and Jason Williams playing for new contracts.
Overrated: Pat Riley with a team of average talent.
Underrated: The pounding Shaq had endured.
Wild Card: Wade sucks it up, reprises Superman show down the stretch.
3. Orlando Magic (10)
Why: One reason: Dwight Howard. Rashard Lewis is overpaid and a slight push over departed Grant Hill. Everyone in the starting lineup besides Howard is an outside shooter. He'll be the biggest one man team this side of Cleveland.
Worries: Lewis presses to justify ridiculous contract; JJ Redick continues to be fool's gold.
Overrated: The impact of Lewis.
Underrated: New coach Stan Gundy; hustling glue guy Trevor Azia.
Wild Card: Redic and Hedo Turkoglu stretching defenses away from Howard and Lewis.
4. Charlotte Bobcats (11)
Why: Team on rise, especially backcourt of Felton and J-Rich. Injuries to May and Morrison are costly.
Worries: Crushed in paint as Okafor hits ceiling and Brezec too slow; Felton's D fades; Richardson's scoring disrupts chemistry.
Overrated: Okafor's post presence.
Underrated: Felton's distribution at the point.
Wild Card: New coach Sam Vincent.
5. Atlanta Hawks (12)
Why: Loads of potential could yield 20 or 40 wins. Pruning roster for quality vet or two would help.
Worries: Nobody sorts a pecking order; bickering, immaturity and indecision reign.
Overrated: Josh Smith, not as good as his numbers.
Underrated: Joe Johnson and Al Horford; a nice place to start.
Wild Card: Lightning strikes and winning becomes contagious. Marvin Williams finally lives up to the hype.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Southwest Division
1. Dallas Mavericks (3)
Why: Nothing to prove in the regular season will affect their record some, but Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones give them depth with perimeter defense that an aging Jason Terry can't provide in the postseason. Diop over the injured Dampier right from the jump is another playoff prep bonus. Ditto the acquisition of banger Brandon Bass.
Worries: Nowitzki fails the do-or-die leadership test a third straight time; the aging of Stack and Terry; the recovery of Dampier from shoulder surgery.
Overrated: Nowitzki's "improvement" the last two years.
Underrated: Stackhouse's ability to get to the line.
Wild Card: Their blood pressure in the postseason. From Cuban to Avery to Dirk and on down, they are wound pretty tight for a team that got undressed by an 8 seed last season.
San Antonio Spurs (4)
Why: Another team that will bide its time. Oberto is now settled in the pivot; Ginobili is the NBA's premiere sidekick; Duncan the best big man; Parker should keep improving, especially on defense.
Worries: A lot of rugged minutes begin wearing down Bowen; Duncan gets hurt; the jinx of even-numbered playoff years.
Overrated: Their bench; thinner than the Celtics'
Underrated: Gregg Popovich, the best in the game today.
Wild Card: Age. This is an old team that plays smashmouth defense deep into every season.
3. New Orleans Hornets (6)
Why: The classic leap forward after the step back. Chandler and West are beasts in the paint, Paul excels at the drive and kick to Peja and MoPete. Bobby Jackson, Rasual Butler, Hilton Armstrong and the rook Julian Wright are nice bench pieces.
Worries: Peja's health, Jackson's wear and tear.
Overrated: Peja's importance.
Underrated: Tyson Chandler, coach Byron Scott.
Wild Card: How much will, or can, New Orleans embrace this emerging team?
4. Houston Rockets (7)
Why: For better or worse, Yao, T-Mac and now hot Argentinian rookie power forward Luis Scola.
Worries: A team seemingly built for defense (Yao, Battier) couldn't win for Van Gundy and is a mismatch for new coach Rick Adelman; Rafel Alston is not a championship point guard.
Overrated: Yao and T-Mac--dynamic duo with zip playoff series wins.
Underrated: Ever-ready battery Chuck Hayes at power forward; sharpshooter Luther Head off the bench.
Wild Cards: Scola obviously, who might be the galvanizing third star piece or a notorious bust. And Adelman: Will he really plant Yao and Mutumbo in the high post?
5. Memphis Grizzlies (11)
Why: They've got a clue, are stockpiling talent, would be a playoff team in the East. Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick are going to be better, Juan Carlos Navarro is a Spur-like foreign gem. Mike Miller will flourish in new coach Iavaroni's up-and-down game.
Worries: The collective basketball IQs of Stromile Swift and Darko Milicic beside Pau Gausol at center; the readiness of rook Mike Conley or pro-soph Kyle Lowry to supplant Stoudamire at the point.
Overrated: Darko's upside.
Underrated: Mike Miller
Wild Cards: Navarro, Conley/Lowry.
Pacific Division
1. Phoenix Suns (2)
Why: The way they play is too much fun for distractions about Marion's contract and trade demands. Acquiring Grant Hill will get Nash some rest. The franchise knows this year is their best, probably last, shot at a ring with this crew.
Worries: Amare, Nash, Hill--How many crucial injury risks can they dodge? Who replaces Kurt Thomas: Brian Skinner? Sean Marks?
Overrated: Amare's post-microfracture strength and quickness.
Underrated: Boris Diaw, who needs to be worked back into the mix.
Wild Card: Hill, who might be the final ingredient or remain an injury-prone tease.
2. Golden State (9)
Why: Because the frothy fun of the playoffs isn't there in mid-winter. Relying on Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson is an oxymoron.
Worries: Davis's body, Jackson's head; the sustainability of Monta Ellis and Matt Barnes after their breakout years; defending the paint.
Overrated: NellyBall
Underrated: Mickael Pietrus, the upside of Andris Biedrins.
Wild Card: The whole team is a wild card, but let's say Baron, who could be a top-10 MVP candidate or a gimpy, glorified gunner.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (10) w/Kobe
Why: Bickering principals accustomed to championships. Some strong talent but a psychological mess.
Worries: Ah, the distraction of whether or not to trade Kobe; Phil Jackson's stale Zen; Odom's health; Bynum's confidence.
Overrated: Kobe Bryant as "the best player in the game."
Underrated: Luke Walton, Bynum.
Wild Card: The volatile Kobe deciding to be a team player out of spite.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (14)
Why: Injuries to Brand and Livingstone are deadly, leaving Maggette, Cassell and Mobley to "sort it out."
Worries: A team ripe for implosion does just that; Mike Dunleavy becoming the second coach to be choked by a player in NBA history.
Overrated: Al Thornton as trendy ROY; Tim Thomas.
Underrated: Ruben Patterson, a bad actor off the court but fabulous glue and dirty work on it.
Wild Cards: Chris Kamen rediscovering his game; Brevin Knight allowed to be the balm in the backcourt.
5. Sacramento Kings (15)
Why: Bibby and Artest are two very different kinds of toxins. Shareef and Brad Miller are toast, Kevin Martin is all stats, and Reggie Theus is the coach? Potentially the most tragicomical squad in the league; when do they sign Flava Flav?
Worries: Being barred from moving to Vegas.
Overrated: Bibby, Martin, the size of Mikki Moore's contract.
Underrated: Quiet pro Kenny Thomas.
Wild Card: Insert Artest joke here.
Northwest Division
1. Denver Nuggets (1)
Why: Because unlike the other contenders, the regular season matters. Melo, AI and Camby rival the troika in Boston and San Antonio; Nene, Najera, Kleiza, Stephen Hunter and maybe K-Mart can bring the beef. Chucky Atkins as an upgrade over Steve Blake at the point.
Worries: Camby's health; the warranty on coach George Karl's effectiveness; regulating the glory of AI.
Overrated: JR Smith, who's not worth the trouble.
Underrated: Camby, a genuine game-changer when healthy; Linas Kleiza, who needs some burn.
Wild Card: Kenyon Martin, whose return to form would make the Nugs a legit co-favorite with San Antonio in the postseason.
2. Utah Jazz (5)
Why: Deron Williams another year closer to being league's best point guard; Boozer/Okur matchup quandary; Sloan a salty master with a couple years left; Millsap, Ronnie Brewer and rook Almond emerge as key pieces for depth.
Worries: Kirilenko/Sloan contretemps continues to bring out the worst in both of them; Okur stops complementing his treys with inside energy; sans Derek Fisher, the dropoff from D-Ron is precipitous at the point.
Overrated: Okur and Boozer, who need the other to be effective.
Underrated: Millsap, a real beast in the making.
Wild Card: Almond's ability to be a better Gordan Giricek.
3. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Why: The long, slow rebuilding comes to fruition even without Oden. Aldridge and Roy are studs in the making, Przy an ideal complementary shotblocker down low; Webster and Outlaw a pair of dynamic swingmen; Steve Blake and Channing Frye good glue. And Zach Randolph is gone.
Worries: Jarrett Jack isn't the answer at the point, and Blake and rook Taurean Green can't pick up the slack. Outlaw and Webster still aren't ready.
Overrated: The impact of Oden's injury, especially if Przybilla can stay healthy.
Underrated: Nate McMillan's influence, especially with Randolph and Darius Miles out of the picture.
Wild Card: Roy's ability to be the de facto point guard.
4. Seattle Supersonics (12)
Why: The best help in the draft from Durant and Jeff Green; and a nice piece with Delonte West at combo guard, but the front line is too weak in the brutal Western Conference.
Worries: Durant gets beaten up and loses confidence; Wilcox and Collison remain the best bets down low as the three bigs from previous drafts continue to flounder. Coach PJ Carlisimo can't find the right balance of tough and tender with the ghost of Spree in his closet.
Overrated: The effectivenes of Damien Wilkins' hustle; the promise of Robert Swift; the future of Luke Ridnour.
Underrated: Glue guy Kurt Thomas; the immediate impact of Green, who will outperform Durant in overall value this season.
Wild Card: Durant really being ready for immediate stardom.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (13)
Why: Problems at the point; culling the plethora of 'tweeners; the emergence of Jefferson, McCants, Gomes and eventually Brewer as building blocks.
Worries: Foye's knee; Gomes's departure next year, followed by Jefferson's down the road; Wittman overmatched by the rebuilding job; Brewer can't shoot well enough to compel a single-team.
Overrated: Gerald Green's future; Telfair's positive preseason; Craig Smith's upside.
Underrated: Theo Ratliff's (short term) impact; the potential team D of Theo/Jefferson/Gomes/McCants/Foye with Brewer off the bench.
Wild Card: Foye at the point; Antoine Walker.
You know how I hate to point out the flaws in others...but last night Mark Blount played 19 minutes and collected one board. We're going to miss that solitary rebound so much! Ricky lit it up with some efficient scoring, and the TNT commentators thought that Ricky was exactly the kind of jump-shooter that team needs. Et tu, Reggie? You're in for a long season, Miami - Tayshaun didn't score all those points in a vacuum. Durant looked great for Seattle as well - aggressive, but very much in control.
Also, this memory clicked since it was Blount against the Pistons, but does anyone else remember that wicked OT road win over the Pistons when Blount drilled that 3 just as the shot clock was expiring? Anyway, that's my favorite Blount memory of all-time. According to ESPN.com, that win put us at 20-16 on the season...
I am beyond excited for this season to start...I think the main matchups to watch tonight are how Al handles Kenyon - K-Mart is the type of bruising defender who can get overly aggressive and susceptible to the crafty shots Al can make. Seeing how Gomes plays Carmelo will be interesting too - despite the efforts of Trenton, Melo had our number last year...I want to see if Gomes is capable of slowing top-tier swingmen. If we can magically limit The Answer to 20 points, we've got a good shot at winning this one.
Wow!
I just had to check out the new format. I see we can now reply to individual posters and not just to the thread.
As the Wolves opener approaches, I am getting more and more excited. I still don't expect the Wolves to compete well this year, but I echo all who have said they are impressed with Jefferson. I think that Foye, Brewer and Jefferson are something positive to build around, and I am much less spooked by the description of stress reaction than the term microfracture. Foye will come back with his hops once his reaction to the stress of knee hits the hardwood heals.
Go Wolves!
unfortunately, the new format doesn't accept html format. Any way to add some buttons for links, italics, bold, quotes, etc.?
Your links have disappeared with the new format as well, although they probably needed to be updated anyway.
Whoa! Love the new format... good stuff! I think it's much better now. Congrats to Britt or whoever is responsible.
I'm stoked for the game tonight, even though we'll probably lose. Are they seriously contemplating starting Jaric at PG? Ugh... didn't we learn from that two years ago? God, I don't want to go down this road again. Marko's ideal role is a 6th man on a decent team, of which we are not. However, that will not temper my enthusiasm.
Looking forward to Jefferson and Gomes tearing it up tonight.
Go Wolves!!!!
wow how about Jefferson...I'm starting to think that with that kind of attitude - and if Jefferson keeps rebounding, Foye gets back, and Brewer progresses quickly - Wolves could maybe fight for that last playoff spot. Maybe I'm being an idiot, but these guys sure seem to have some great character.
[The following comments were copied from the old site.]
Recipe for Pure Basketball Fan Joy:
Take 30 NBA teams
Combine 50 words per team
Mix in a heavy dose of Britt Robson Genius
Absorb as much as possible
Nice job, Britt. Bring on the '07-'08 Season!
~Posted by: A.K. Agikamik at October 30, 2007 01:58 PM
I can't believe you've got my Raptors as the *6th* seed in the east? Bargnani is gonna abuse KG all season long. ALL SEASON LONG BAY-BAYYYY!!!! Passing of the torch, just like a few years ago when Parker abused Payton. Speaking of PGs, Calderon is the best.
~Posted by: Cornelio at October 30, 2007 02:13 PM
Boston #1 in the East and Denver #1 in the West?
Should it happen? yes.
Will it happen I doubt it. I really thing the KG legacy is going to take a hit and Iverson and Melo won't ever amount to what they should or could be.
Championship teams are not put together like Boston or Denvers. They grow together over time and there is not enough time for KG, Allen, Pierce or Iverson. Its LEbron James and his peers time to shine and only Dirk, Nash, and Duncan can hold it off for another year or so.
I am so ready to move on from KG and I never thought I would be. The Good doctor expresses my thoughts precisely here in this post.
KG is the prime exemplar of this new genre of athlete that I like to call, the passive-aggressive toddlers (PATs). Donovan McNabb plays quarterback for that team. Shaq is center. These guys are masterful interview subjects, they keep the fans in their pocket and always deflect blame toward someone else--usually some invisible front office figure caricatured to look like Rich Uncle Pennybags. They never admit their hypocrisy, preferring to redefine what their definition of "is" is. Whereas guys like T.O., A-Rod, and Kobe just kind of bug us, the PATs are worse, because they portray an illusion of "taking the high road." With KG, I have documented all of these transgressions in more depth here. But a recent Slam Interview, in which he talks about being betrayed by the Timberwolves front office, dumped like a lousy boyfriend, blindsided ... how he never asked for a trade ... how saddened he was by Flip Saunders' departure ... all of that verbosity really reopened wounds for me. And whatever is coming from Garnett's mouth stinks something awful.
At the time of the coaching switch...KG called McHale taking over for Saunders a "breath of fresh air."
In an interview last year, ALSO with Slam's Lang Whitaker, KG practically begged to leave Minnesota.
Not to mention his famous "Thank God for opt-outs" muckraking at the trade deadline.
We're not that stupid, KG. We remember all the good times and we remember the petty chatter as well. It's gonna be a good year for you, but it will never feel the same.
It will be a good year for KG, but it won't be number #1 seed good.
~Posted by: Andy B at October 30, 2007 03:34 PM
Put Boston's top three against any other team's top three, and the comparison favors Boston.
Either Ray Allen or Paul Pierce (even at this stage in their careers) would probably be the best player KG has ever been paired with, and he's got BOTH of them.
Yes, Doc Rivers is a crappy coach, and yes the bench is thin, but three stars of this caliber is enough to win a title in this league. Hell, the Cavs got to the Finals with LeBron and a team of scrubs.
Would love to see a Celtics-Spurs Final.
~Posted by: Patrick at October 30, 2007 05:04 PM
The Foye news is awful. Earlier I read that he'll be out for three weeks, now some sources (ESPN, KSTP) are reporting that he'll be out "indefinitely".
The only logical result: Marko's last stand. Should I be more excited for the potential success or the inevitable failure? It's not all bad, we do really need to find out of Jaric is an NBA player or not, he'll be the second highest player on our team next year (provided Big Al doesn't re-sign with us, which seems likely). http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota.htm
~Posted by: Steve J at October 30, 2007 05:12 PM
I was surprised to see Denver #1 in the West. I like Chucky Atkins, too, but didn't you see he had a groin tear ala Rod Strickland with the Wolves?!?
And I just don't see this team playing smart basketball under George Karl. I think they'll be struggling to make the playoffs, which they shouldn't be, and then they'll implode... We'll see.
~Posted by: Doug at October 30, 2007 05:14 PM
Doug--
Totally missed the news of Atkins tearing his groin and yes, it is significant. That likely means AI at the point, with short doses of ex-Wolves Anthony Carter and Mike Wilks. A torn groin isn't something a point guard comes back from easily and the 6-8 weeks he's listed out won't be enough; it will be mid-season minimum before he's close to right. I don't mind AI at the point except you either go huge with Melo at the off guard or get a steady diet of JR Smith after Smith returns from suspension.
I still like Denver, but that #1 seed is shakier, no doubt. Thanks for the update.
~Posted by: Britt Robson at October 30, 2007 07:02 PM
Foye's stress reaction is a real drag. It's a precurser to a stress fracture and is diagnosed now using an MRI. It can be serious, and hopefully won't become as ingrained a part of our collective vocabulary as plantar fasciitis.
Not suprisingly, I take the other side of Free Darko's (forwarded by Andy) KG criticism. For me, it kind of lessens the validity of a tirade when it singles out two of the most generous people in the NBA (Shaq and KG) to say they're everything wrong with the league. Did he forget that KGs years on the basketball court make him a veteran in the game, but not in life. Even now, he's a young guy. Why should we be down on the player who was involved in every fun highlight of this team since it's inception. So what if he complained about his f*d up employer (how many of us have ever done that).
Personally, I plan on enjoying his highlights with his new team, just like I enjoy reading Britt and Ashy as much as ever. For me, it's only the former employer's product that's been diminished.
~Posted by: midlife crisis at October 30, 2007 08:55 PM
If I were a betting man, here is where I'd put Boston. Number four in the East with Toronto, New Jersey and Orlando clipping at its heels and thats assuming Miami doesn't get a healthy Shaq and Wade (a reasonable assumption) for most of the year in which case Boston will be 5th and fighting for a playoff spot with those three teams. Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago will finish out front of Boston because they are more developed teams.
Gilbert Arenas playful quotes are more entertaining than accurate, but I think he is right when he says "everyone already knows how to beat Boston. You run on them. They're old and if you increase the tempo they won't be around in the fourth qtr when the game is won. [paraphrasing from memory]."
Pierce, Allen and KG are veterans and they are smart players. However, they have not played together before and the adjustment to each others play as well as the fact that they are old will mean that they won't get going until the end of the year (provided they stay healthy and are not completely worn out by Playoff time). A fourth seed still might give them a chance to go to the finals in the East, but no further. The following year, if they can pick up another young player or two, will be a better year for the three in Boston.
The difference between KG and Spree/Cassell and KG with Allen and Pierce is that KG is not as good as he was then, even if Pierce and Allen are better. Pierce also might be a step slower than in the past and like Spreewell, his deterioration might be fast once he loses a step to age. Allen should always be a threat with his shot, but his defense is suspect. Their Bench will keep those three on the court too much and they will tire quickly against younger opponents.
The comparison to Cleveland last year and Lebron neglects the obvious that, other than Detroit, Miami, and New Jersey, the East is made up of teams led by players on the upswing of their careers such as Toronto, Orlando, Cleveland and Chicago, unlike Boston's three. This means Cleveland will be better than a year ago along with the other three. All this does not bode well for Boston.
If I was a betting man (I'm not), given the odds, I'd place my money on Boston missing the playoffs entirely over them being the number one seed. I think both are just as implausible, but given all the hype over KG in Boston, the latter bet would payoff much higher.
~Posted by: Andy B at October 31, 2007 09:44 AM
Absent an inked deal, its 14 hours until Al Jefferson, the centerpiece of the July 31 trade, becomes a restricted free agent.
As I understand it, if no deal gets done before midnight tonight, Big Al can shop deals at season's end and the Wolves will have the opportunity to match. No further negotiations would be permitted until July '08.
The CBA has a ceiling on the size of deal Jefferson can obtain at this stage of his career - five years at $80 million. Word is the Wolves are offering five at $60 right now.
So, what's the calculus and strategy here?
For the Wolves the keys seem to be organizational peace of mind and money, of course. I don't get the sense that there has been anything about Al Jefferson thus far that has given the Wolves a moment's pause. I see little to no upside for the Wolves to allow Al to become a restricted free agent.
For Al, there may be more incentive to wait. If he meets or exceeds expectations this season, he can probably get very close to the $80 million ceiling from somebody.
Also, he's got more to learn about the Wolves organization than they have to learn about him. If things don't pan out, say Witt loses control of the locker room, the team wins fewer than 20 games, the Minnesota winter gets him down - he could make a stink. It doesn't seem like he's that kind of a guy, but that chance always exists.
Fast forward to April and Al is playing a slow burn in the media, his agent intimates dissatisfaction, would the Wolves match an $80 million deal? On paper, the Wolves have the upper hand vs an unrestricted free agent. But in reality, the unrestricted free agent has some levers at his disposal.
The main reasons for Al to sign now would be to fully establish himself here and as an insurance policy against a serious injury or underperformance.
The clock is ticking Glen.
~Posted by: A.K. Agikamik at October 31, 2007 09:45 AM
Britt,
I tuned in to KFAN last night and heard your interview with Dan B [Thanks A.K.]. It was good to hear your voice and insights. I look forward to reading the article on Mchale (My next Dentist appointment isn't for six months - where else can I find a copy?). And, I didn't realize there were so many people reading this blog.
I think Dan B would be smart to schedule you once a week on his show to talk Wolves, but that might mean you move in on Ashe's territory. But, for Wolves fans, having you both as regulars on the show would keep us tuned in.
~Posted by: Andy B at October 31, 2007 10:06 AM
Britt - can't possibly see how Denver makes #1. Calling Chucky Atkins (even if healthy) an upgrade over anyone is ridiculous, especially over a guy I wanted the Wolves to nab - Steve Blake. Iverson and Melo are both great scorers, but what else do they do? I love AI, but the guy needs to be alpha dog on a team, not option #1A, or it's just not effective or as much fun to watch (compared to AI's "me against the world" years, when he had to drag guys like Ty Hill and Todd MacCullough to the playoffs). I will concede that the Nuggets have a good supporting cast - Camby can be great, I like Kleiza, but K-Mart and Nene are overrated, overpaid, injury-prone, and LOCKED UP for 4 - 5 years.
Also, I have Charlotte in the 7 spot in the East, a perfect position to get their rears handed to them by the best blogger in the NBA and his Wizard teammates. They've also got a "big three" (who in the NBA doesn't, actually?), consisting of Okafor, Wallace, and the overrated J-Rich. Not to mention 2 great draft finds in Dudley and Davidson - the injuries mean more minutes for these guys who are far more intriguing prospects than May and Morrison.
Your take on the Pistons is the first I've read without the words "Rodney Stuckey" somewhere in there. Get with the program! NBA columnists are supposed to believe that rookies are going to put an already excellent team over the top, replacing those confused, creaky vets with fresh legs. Put Tony Parker out to pasture - the Spurs have DARIUS WASHINGTON!!!
Just nitpicking above - thanks for putting up the list, it's always nice to see what others think.
Anyone catch the first TNT game last night? I thought Portland looked pretty good, considering they were up against the champs - Pryz has done a 180 from last season, Aldrige can score (on Duncan!) but can't rebound, and Webster knocked down open looks late in the game created with good ball movement and drive-and-kick. Despite the bad news for Foye, can't wait for our season to start on Friday!
~Posted by: antonymous at October 31, 2007 12:49 PM
http://www.kfan.com/cc-common/podcast/single_podcast.html?podcast=KFAN_B...
For those like me who didn't get a chance to hear Britt yesterday.
~Posted by: McCleak at October 31, 2007 12:50 PM
In terms of the East's overall seeds I flip (heh) Detroit and Cleveland, and also take Chicago over Boston--to me the Celtics still have PG questions, plus if any of the big three are hurt for any length of time that team sinks like a stone.
In the West I don't buy all Britt's Nuggets hype--I say they are 5th, Utah 4th, and San Antonio is #1. The only team with a chance to knock 'em off is Dallas.
Personally I doubt we will get Jefferson signed today, for all the reasons AK mentioned. He doesn't have any incentive to sign now except the risk of injury, and he's young enough that he probably isn't too concerned about that.
~Posted by: Jackdaw at October 31, 2007 12:52 PM
Andy B brings up a good point, Britt. Do you expect to be on KFAN more often now that Asche is not covering the Wolves for the Strib?
~Posted by: Cheap Seats Erick at October 31, 2007 01:21 PM
Its hard to keep track of all the teams. I guess thats why I'm not covering the NBA and Britt is. I forgot to mention the Wizards in the East. My prediction of the playoff seeds in the East (sorry, I know, who really cares about my predictions - all I mean to point out is that Boston will be as close to an 8 seed as a 1 - and a healthy Miami might put them in danger of missing the playoffs all together.)
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Boston
5. Toronto
6. New Jersey
7. Washington
8. Orlando
The West
1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. Utah
5. Denver
6. Golden State
7. New Orleans
8. Houston
And, AK, I'm not worried about signing AJ. I think it would be safe and a smart move to lock him into a long-term contract right now, but with the Wolves recent history of signing players to long-term contracts I can understand their hesitation. The greater concern is the development of his play this year and the players surrounding him.
~Posted by: Andy B at October 31, 2007 01:29 PM
Two topics:
1. Boston.
a) KG, Spree, Cassell vs. KG, Allen, Pierce.
Cassell couldn't play defense but could shoot (especially in the clutch). Allen, seems similar in that he can shoot (not sure about the clutch).
Spree, old, good defense, could still create offense by going to the lane. Pierce, not traditionally great defense, 4 years younger than Spree, much better than spree at taking the ball inside and coming out with points and free throws.
I think Rondo is good and will get even better. I think Perkins is also good and will get better. KG is probably not quite as good as he was in 2003-2004, but I think Allen and Pierce are better than Spree and Cassell. Much better.
b)Where the Celtics will make it or break it is with their defense. The Cavs won with only Lebron because Lebron is an amazing offensive player and their team was one of the best defensive teams in the league.
2. Jefferson extension. The Wolves and Glen Taylor have traditionally been too eager to over pay their own players and other team's players. See Madsen, Jaric, Hudson as examples.
The wolves should take advantage of the fact that Jefferson is a restricted free agent. They should give Jefferson a serious (below the max) offer now.
There's a chance the wolves could get a good deal by signing Jefferson now. But if he wants the max, they should not sign him. They should wait and see if he gets the max in a year. Signing him for less than the max can enable the wolves to have more cap space in 2009 or 2010.
The Wolves cannot survive if they end up paying players more than their market salary. Restricted free agency is the best way to get an understanding of a player's market value.
~Posted by: Nate at October 31, 2007 02:29 PM
October 31st, 2007 – 11:16 PM by Jerry Zgoda
The Wolves just beat an 11 p.m. deadline and signed promising young forward Al Jefferson to a five-year, $65 million contract extension that will make the 22-year-old selected 15th overall in the 2004 NBA draft a very rich man starting next season. The deal will keep him a Timberwolf through 2013.
Better late than not at all. Nice!
~Posted by: A.K. Agikamik at October 31, 2007 11:28 PM
Thanks for this A.K.
Add me to those who think MN's big 3 were better than Boston's. This is mainly based on Pierce - I like him as a player but think he's slightly overrated. I could be wrong, but I'd rather have Spree in his prime than him.
~Posted by: Cornelio at November 1, 2007 07:29 AM
Rather than bore everyone with rankings, I'll just add that I don't think Boston will be the number one overall seed. Neither will Denver. San Antonio and Dallas are just too solid of regular season teams. Here's my top 4 seedings (counts the division winners:
EAST:
Chicago
Detroit
Boston
Miami
WEST:
Dallas
San Antonio
Utah
Phoenix
~Posted by: College Wolf at November 1, 2007 08:59 AM
1. Cornelio-
I like Spree in his prime over Pierce as well, but the '03 Wolves didn't have that Spree. They had a rapidly aging Spree for whom dunking was becoming a challenge. Certainly not the same as the high-flying Spree of his youth. So the Pierce KG gets to play with now, is better than the Spree KG did play with.
The questions I keep hearing about the Celtics are the same ones we kept hearing about those '03 Wolves. Age, chemistry & lack of depth. We all know how they did and the Big 3 of these Celtics are more talented. If they make it to the playoffs healthy, then they're the favorites to win the East.
2. The Big Al extension - Very impressed with the front office. I thought there was no way he'd take less than the max, so kudos to them for getting it done at a good rate.
3. Britt's interview - enjoyed it very much, thank you Mr. Robson. Lots of good info and insight into the behind-the-scenes stuff. Is your article available online (living across the country makes it difficult to find a hard copy of the Mpls/St. Paul mag)? And do you plan on doing more interviews with Barreiro on a regular basis?
~Posted by: saudagg at November 1, 2007 09:17 AM
As far as Big 3's, I'd take Duncan/Parker/Ginobli first, then Nash/Stoudemire/Marion. Then probably Boston's. The former two triplets are collectively younger and can cover the two key postions of C and PG, to boot.
That said, it should be a lot of fun to watching KG go to work with shooters stretching the floor again.
My prediction for the Wolves: Despite the complete overhaul and stylistic shift of the franchise, a lot of the same old fundamental flaws of the team--too turnover prone, too few high-percentage shooters--will be their downfall many nights. They also lost their two best distributors in Garnett and Davis, so we may have to endure a stagnant possession or two. Not that anybody's expecting great things this year 1 of the post KG era, but I do worry a bit that the front office didn't address these issues. Did they not notice them? Or maybe they did but were too busy razing the thing and will take care of it later? Wait and see. Defensively I think they're a wild card, because a great defensive center can do wonders for team defense, and if Ratliff is healthy and effective, he can provide that. If he's hurting, then I think it will be ugly on both sides of the ball.
All that said, I think the Wolves are in a better place than they've been in for years. They just signed their new (let's hope) franchise player to a sane contract, they've cleared almost all of the duds from the roster, the front office seems interested again... they finally seem to have broken free of the inertia that's plagued the team since 2004. I think they've had a wonderful offseason, given the situation.
~Posted by: jianfu at November 1, 2007 10:38 AM
That's great news on the AJ signing - that's pretty close to what my estimation would have been for this season. Most players who put up big numbers on subpar teams end up with outrageous deals, so the signing is definitely timely. I'd say it's a great first step.
And despite your feelings on the recent interview, let's give some props to Glen Taylor. The man just spent a truckload of money to accomplish some things that fans had been clamoring for - let's recall the summer, shall we?
1. Trade underproducing (and disliked by KG) Mike James for vet help in the form of Juwan Howard.
2. Accepts that we cannot win by giving KG $20mil/year extensions. Trades for young cornerstone Jefferson + Gomes, 2 first-rounders, etc - the most picks/players for a single player in league history.
3. Spends serious bling to buy out the worthless Troy Hudson.
4. Finds a desperate mate in Miami, who accept Ricky and Blount in a 2-for-1 where we take back Walker, who has 1 less year than Blount. Frees up minutes for the youth.
5. Spends MORE money to buy out Juwan Howard.
That's not bad at all.
As for which big 3 was better...Spre and Sam were past their primes, but Sam's clutch shooting does not fade with old age. And Spre could still slash (but not dunk). But like Pierce and Allen, neither could play D, but I think Sam especially brought more intangibles to the table. Right now, I'd say that Sam and Spre were better with Garnett, but that's only because the other two haven't played a real game yet. It's all about how their games compliment each other. As a PG, Sam could get KG the ball where he wanted, and I can see an inexperienced Rondo being pestered into turning the ball over with poor passing angles. But all 3 Boston guys are in their primes now, with the right combo of experience and athleticism...but they're going to need some midseason help at the 2 positions toughest to field - PG and C...I don't see them having difficulty attracting quality players though. I hope KG still has Rod Strickland's number!
~Posted by: antonymous at November 1, 2007 10:52 AM
Well, it didn't take long for my prediction to look silly and I couldn't be happier. Jefferson is only 22 and we have him all to ourselves for the next five years, at a very reasonable rate. I think that contract is going to look like an absolute bargain long before it expires.
~Posted by: Jackdaw at November 1, 2007 11:28 AM
I don't know why I hadn't thought of this before, but Britt, you should really be doing a podcast. Once a week, twenty minutes or so. It is easy. And people would tune in like crazy. I know I would. I am listening to tons of podcasts by people way dumber than you.
You could get some ads on it to monetize it and add to your coffers. There is really no downside. You can just ad lib for twenty minutes once a week and watch your celebrity swell.
Do it please!
~Posted by: jackson at November 1, 2007 11:33 AM
Hey everyone - hats off to Taylor and McHale - they are finally taking some action and spending money to make the TWolves better. Getting rid of bad players with big contracts, getting some #1s instead of giving, not extending Green (in the past we would have re-upped him for 5 and then watched him sit on the bench), things like that - all positive!!!! Plus to cap it off Big Al for 5 years at a reasonable price.
Hey Britt
Whats your take on the Wolves declining the option on Gerald Green's contract?
Thanks,
Mashapi
Excerpts from the presser with McHale and Jefferson. If Al Jefferson's comments don't put a smile on your face, something is the matter. Read this now.
http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/news/mchale_and_jefferson_press_conferen...
Damn you Timberwolves....you sucked me in again. The team was practically dead to me after the KG trade, but since then, little by little, they've crept back into my heart. First by unloading the whiners and malcontents, one by one. Then by getting back picks and cap space. And finally now Big Al's signing and comments--in both talent and maturity level he seems like a man beyond his years--has put me over the top. They still need a real point guard, but I am now officially excited to watch the Wolves again this season.