The Twins organization just announced that general manager Terry Ryan is resigning. This is a huge blow for the franchise. More than anyone else over the past decade--Tom Kelly, Carl Pohlad, Torii Hunter, you name it--Ryan fostered a "Twins Identity" that relied on the farm system, pitching, and the most thorough scouting and information retrieval system in Major League Baseball to keep the ballclub competitive beyond its payroll.
What hasn't been made clear yet is whether Ryan jumped or was pushed, and whether he wants to keep doing this sort of work or settle into a Kelly-like advisory role. The fact that Billy Smith has been announced as Ryan's replacement would indicate that ownership is not unhappy with the Ryan Way, as Smith is in many respects a protege of Ryan's. If Ryan simply wants to decompress his life, smell the roses or wander off and do something completely different, then the loss is probably minimized.
But if Ryan is unhappy, or lost out in some sort of power struggle, or (and I can really see this) held himself to such a high standard that he is leaving out of a sense of honor for not doing his job correctly, then it hurts the organization. First of all, Ryan engenders tremendous loyalty among his scouts, who are there because of the power they have through Ryan--it certainly isn't the size of their paychecks. So if Ryan is ending his association with the Twins, or is thinking about doing the same thing somewhere else, the Twins scouting apparatus could be in for a major shake-up, and that is dire news.
Ryan's critics will point out that he has been too timid about late summer infusions and personnel changes in the midst of pennant races; that his mentality is best suited for underdog small markets content merely to be respectable, as opposed to a team with the richest owner in MLB about to benefit from a new stadium. To that I say that investing in scouting remains the smartest thing an organization can do regardless of how much cash the owner or the stadium can generate, and that it takes a former scout to know best how to build and maintain a system that maximizes the benefits of scouting.
On top of which, I don't for a moment believe that Carl Pohlad or his surrogates are going to become spendy. Remember all that hue and cry about having to pay off Land Partners for their oh so unfair exorbitant asking price on land at the Twins stadium site, and how it would shortchange other aspects of the stadium construction? Well, Pohlad could step in and absorb much more, or even all of that gap between what the landowners want and what the public can pay. But he's too busy figuring out how to buy the Ford office and loft building overlooking the stadium site so he can maximize profits on parcels benefiting from the presence of the new stadium. The guy is as greedy as ever, folks.
And Terry Ryan isn't. He's a class act, one of the best GMs in the game and a man of honor and amiability. Short of some sort of medical or personal crisis aside from baseball, he will be fine, landing on his feet in a situation of his choosing. For the Twins, on the other hand, the outlook is far less certain.
UPDATE: That Ryan is staying on as "senior adviser" is bittersweet good news. It means he wasn't pushed out, so there are still some brain cells functioning among the upper echelons of the ownership. But the resignation announced and the subsequent media interviews points to that a slow burnout--should be call it smoulder immolation or something?--and that's a shame. Still, 13 years is a long time (although Kevin McHale has been running the Wolves' personnel merely one year less) and somebody as detail oriented as Ryan, with as little margin of error to work with as the Twins job, probably should be expected to wear down to the nub after awhile.
Good news on the promotion of Mike Radcliffe, another clear signal that the franchise still highly values scouts.


108--
I wasn't quite as blase about it as in your post, but I too didn't understand how one ballclub could reap a significant advantage over another via scouting, so long as that club was willing to put forth the investment. Then I interviewed Mike Radcliff almost exactly a year ago now, and he illuminated things quite well.
Here's the link:
http://citypages.com/databank/27/1346/article14739.asp
I'm pretty sure Ryan left for precisely the reason he said he did.
I'm not sure how you 'invest' in scouting and reap some advantage over the other teams. The great amatuer players are known to the scouting departments of all teams. There are no hidden gems out there that won't be drafted but for the one team that knows about them. Its a matter of what round they get drafted in, and what they end up costing. Thats tactics. And I doubt it can be parsed to the point that you demonstrate some monetary efficiency based on your draft tactics, except to say that the Minnesota Twins can't throw caution to the wind and pay like the NY Yankees. You draft 50 guys each year, 5-6 of them will make it to the major leagues regardless. Overall, youre getting a similar set of skills within this pool of players you sign each year.
Investment in instructors probably pays off a bunch.
I'd rather be backwaters. As much as I would love another championship, and as much as I realize everything must change, the future of sports with its "professionalization", quantitative analysis, assessment tools, risk analysis, etc. is all fluff and can only complement but never replace the scouts, characters and curmudgeons that one finds in baseball fields all over the world and produced people like Ryan, Kelly and Radcliffs.
I would say the same thing about basketball, but the elite players of the world are not diamond in the roughs that fill rosters in the major leagues and require people who know what a baseball player looks like and can recognize abilities most casual fans don't see. The red sox have a payroll and the A's spend as much time monitoring and copying the front office of the Twins as the Twins do the A's and with equal measures of success.
Of course the Twins should not snubb their noses at outside talent and should be aware of trends in modern baseball management. I think Ryan left for precisely this reason. Quantitiative analysis is not fun. Watching baseball is. Billy Smith is an analyzer and number cruncher. Ryan is a scout and talent evaluator. Ryan left his GM position to do what he loves best and the Twins are going to be arguably better off for the precisely the reasons AK mentions while retaining the best talent scouts in the majors.
Over the past 20 years there has been a dramatic "professionalization" in the strategic, tactical and business approach to sports. Minnesota teams, by and large, have fallen behind the curve.
In the NBA, a handful of teams have pushed hard into the international player market with good results. 600 1st Ave is a non-factor in international recruiting and development.
In the NFL, certain teams have invested heavily in quantitative analysis to aid them in play calling and general strategy. Haven't heard boo from Winter Park.
And in MLB, there is a whole new world of player and prospect assessment tools (think A's and Red Sox) that seem to have passed the Twins front office by.
We're backwater, guys, like it or not. We are cutting edge in nothing. I would argue the nepotism, in-breeding, home-grown approach, whatever you want to call it, is a major contributor to this phenomenon.
In any fast-changing environment, cross-pollenization is critical to success. We haven't had a champion here in 16 years, and there isn't a prospect in sight.
I'll play devil's advocate here for a moment, because I really do think there is some validity in the view...
The Twins are cautious to a fault. Yes, it makes sense to safeguard your young, inexpensive assets, and assure yourself that you the value you give up for instant gratification isn't totally disproportionate down the road. But there have been a few seasons in the past six or seven (I personally don't believe this year is one of them) when the franchise could have fortified themselves just a little more, and perhaps taken a first-round team further in, like maybe all the way to a ring. The Don Baylor pickup in 1987 is a good example.
Even this year, I think trading one of the many young arms, even for an equally promising but unproven hitter, would have been an excellent move. Free agency has proven that pitchers are far more valuable on the market than hitters. Credit the Twins for stockpiling the most valuable commodity, especially given how injury-prone and inconsistent pitchers can be relative to hitters. But at some point, make the decision on Bonser/Garza/ Slowey/Baker/Swardzik/etc and get yourself a corner outfielder or third baseman. And if you couldn't or didn't want to sign Torii Hunter for what he was asking, deal him in July at the deadline, if not before, when his value was higher.
Brad Zellar said something very true and revealing, either on his Warning Track Power blog or in one of our diablog roundtables here: Ryan falls too much in love with his own talent. Now the good side of that is he is backing the judgment of his scouts, and he is fostering a spirit of community in the clubhouse. But the bad side is that those same scouts have proven they can identify diamonds in the rough on other ballclubs (I'm really curious to see if the two kids they got for Castillo ever pan out).
Which is all to say (devil's advocacy, remember) that going outside the organization for a fresh perspective, while retaining the inside scouting personnel and promoting the Radcliffes, might have been a logical middle course.
It might also have prevented Ryan from stepping aside.
The country club at the Dome is there because they are competent. Why the heck should they conduct a national search for Ryan's replacement, when Ryan is still going to remain in the organization and they have a competent staf in place that has achieved a measured level of success with the Twins organization.
I actually feel very assured knowing Smith has Ryan, Radcliff, and Kelly around for scouting and player development/evaluation.
I can understand the "country club" description used for the Wolves with the open revolving door for management that seems to have little to do with measurements of success, but the Twins staff in place has achieved a level of success and I don't understand the wish to use Ryan's announcement and the current season's dissappointment's to advocate a complete restructuring through outside personal.
when is the last time a Minnesota professional sports team performed a meaningful national search for senior front office talent?
Well, if you don't count the Wild (did they do a search?), that last team would be the Wolves, when they hired Jack McCloskey. That worked out well.
Or, the Vikings with Fran Foley.
I agree that Ryan's resignation is likely to hurt the Twins more than help them over the long term. Since 2001, you'd have to place Ryan in the top 5 of baseball GMs based on his team and player development results. From what I heard yesterday, this was a personal decision by Ryan that was in the works for quite some time.
The timing of the announcement may or may not have been of Ryan's choosing, but the timing does seem to serve the Twins pretty well. The next three weeks are borderline meaningless and provide Smith and others some time to lay the groundwork on both player and staff negotiations. An October 2 announcement would have been extremely disruptive.
On a related note, when is the last time a Minnesota professional sports team performed a meaningful national search for senior front office talent? It seems to me that the country club syndrome seems to stretch beyond 600 1st Avenue to include the Dome and Xcel. Maybe owners in this town need to look beyond the carpeted hallways outside their offices when considering professional leadership changes.
Ryan--
Decent point. But just because the philosophy remains the same doesn't mean the competence holds true.
I see absolutely no reason why the Twins would suddenly deviate from the "Ryan Way." This is the same team that never fires ANYONE - TK had a lifetime managerial contract until he decided he'd had enough, as does Gardy until he really starts to suck. It's a very internal family over there, and has been for quite some time. Until things really start to go wrong, you're going to see the same people in charge for a long, long time.
Why do we "deserve better"? Have we gone out of our way to support this team more than most major league fans? Have we suffered more than most major league fans? Is our situation more hopeless than the situation facing most major league fans? Are the ticket prices we are currently paying more than what most major league fans are paying?
More to the point, do you really think Terry Ryan stepping down helps our wild card prospects for next season or beyond? If so, why?
Last time I looked, the Twins stayed in contention for postseason play and held out legitimate hope for a championship in their league far longer than any other franchise in town.
Here's an explanation: Look at the wild-card standings. They're awful, and they're not getting any better.
I'm a bit disappointed, but not surprised, by the lack of information apparently given during today's press conference. The only difference in the Strib story posted online at noon and the one updated at 3 p.m. is the following quote: "I felt a lot of elation when we won, and sorrow when we lost," Ryan said. "Now all of a sudden the defeats are getting a little harder to take and the wins aren't as much fun. That's not a good thing to experience as a general manager."
I'm curious to see if we'll get much more explanation than that.