Welcome to the fourth and final Twins diablog of the 2007 season. As always, I'm joined by two savvy diamond heads: the game-cherishing Twins neurotic Brad Zellar, The Rake's Twins beat writer and author of the Warning Track Power blog; and feisty fan and longtime local journalist David Brauer, who talks about the media on MPR, moderates the Mpls. Issues List, used to edit the Southwest Journal and freelances for a variety of print and online outlets. Oh yeah, he also once covered the Twins (and other sports) for the Twin Cities Reader.
We originally were going to go three or four rounds, but Jimmy Souhan's Strib column today dealt with some things we were discussing before it was published (great minds think alike and so forth), and I realized it's best to throw this up now--a conversation held from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening--and welcome further comments from both participants and readers.
Britt Robson
I've got a three-word autopsy on the Twins' dead playoff chances with a month left to go in the season: They can't hit. Some smart guy said that would be a problem way back in April, but in truth it didn't take a genius to see that Nick Punto is just Denny Hocking 2.0; that Rondell White is too far past his prime and Jason Kubel either overhyped or an outright bust; that Jason Tyner has Triple-A talent in everything but pinch-running; and that the Big Four--Mauer/Morneau/Hunter/Cuddyer--all had career years in 2006.
The real dilemma is that, in terms of bats, the minor league system looks pretty barren, at least in terms of relatively immediate help. Looking over the stats from Rochester and New Britain, I see a plethora of late-twenties types like Garret Jones, Brian Buscher, Tommy Watkins and Glenn Williams (who is actually 30) as the heavy hitters. The closest things to ready-to-go prospects (aside from Alex Casilla, the future-is-now 2B since the Castillo trade)are SS Trevor Plouffe and OF Garrett Guzman, both still in Double-A. By contrast, the Twins are filthy rich in quality pitching prospects, ranging from Garza/Baker/Bonser already in the bigs, Liriano on the mend, Slowey/Perkins with some cups of coffee at the MLB level, and intriguing prospects like starter Anthony Swarzak and Nick Blackburn.
Okay, so we know the adages about pitching being 80 percent of the game, and how you can't ever have too many pitchers, in part because injuries and constant adjustments by major league hitters make it such an inscrutable endeavor, which is a high-falutin' way of calling it a crapshoot. The other day in this space, I listed the six prospects with the most major league experience in terms of how productive I thought they'd be over the next five years (feel free to make yourself look foolish by following my lead with your own take). Matt Garza, who has subsequently been torched his last two times out, was at the top, and Mr. One-Hitter Scott Baker was at the bottom. The truth is, they might as well all be dice you toss in a cup and then roll on the felt--everything from triple box cars to three sets of snake eyes is possible.
This unpredictability reinforces the conventional wisdom that you horde the arms, and consider the circumstance a blessed insurance policy as injuries and idiocy cull the herd. But if quality hitting prospects are traditionally more reliable (and according to Bill James and other stat heads, they are) and the Twins truly are bereft of young run producers in the minors, shouldn't Terry Ryan and those crackerjack scouts trade at least a little of their bounty and create the kind of balanced squad you need to contend for a championship in the late aughts? I mean, the days of Koufax and Drysdale, or even Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine, being enough to snare a ring are over.
That's why I was banging the drum for Ryan to trade Torii Hunter back at the All Star break. The opportunity to get something meaningful for Hunter is past. And if the choice really is overpaying Hunter--hands down the Twins' MVP this season, in my opinion--for the next four or five years or putting Denard Spann and his sub .700 minor league OPS in his stead, then I reply: Neither! No, I buck conventional wisdom at least two of those arms. And I start with Johan Santana and Joe Nathan.
Brad Zellar deserves credit for raising the issue of dealing Santana first among the three of us, although he promptly ran away from it and probably still chalks it up to temporary insanity. But I think it's a sound strategy. Barring injury, Santana is going to get at least $150 million on the open market at the end of next season. I don't think the Twins should use *all* of their stadium windfall money on him, especially given the pitching-hitting imbalance that already afflicts the franchise. No, spend the money on extending Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Morneau will be very expensive--consider anything over what he was asking for last spring, when he could have and should have been inked, to be a stupidity tax. Cuddyer will be pricey ($5-$7 million for 3-5 years is my guess, but I am guessing) but worth it considering his increased selectivity as a hitter and his emergence as a quality outfielder with an accurate gun for an arm and intimate knowledge of the baggy caroms (can the new stadium by any tougher?).
I don't know what the Twins can fetch for Santana and Nathan, but I imagine the best damn pitcher in baseball and a top-five closer should bring in at least one or two stud hitters and two or three stud hitting prospects. And, the payroll would be reduced enough to extend whatever cream from the pitching prospects and Santana/Nathan booty rises to the top.
Or we can pay Santana Zito-plus money and deal Nathan and some prospects. Or stand pat with pitching and finish third with a team ERA of 3.20. Your thoughts?
David Brauer
Looking back over my pre-season predictions, Britt calling me savvy is like gilding the turd. But I'll press on...
A hat tip to our boy for insisting hitting was the problem and sticking to it. I do think it was a medium, if not long shot to bet that three of the Big Four bats would have big come-downs this year, but they have, including pennant race MIA Morneau. (Do we give Terry Ryan any credit for hedging here, betting that Justin would arc more towards Marty Cordova than Alex Rodriguez? No. It was a mistake not to sign him.)
Interestingly, the hitting went so crappy this year that it might weaken the case for trading for hitting. Why? Because it wouldn't take much to upgrade these chumps, and even low-end (but higher than Rondell White) free agents might bring improvement in the nether reaches of the lineup and the bench. Britt noted the fluidity of pitching prospects' ascension to the majors; this makes it a real crapshoot for any team wanting to trade with us; the odds are more in our favor keeping them all, dumping Torii (I still believe he will be overpriced) and trading Santana (who is much more worth Zito money than Zito, but is still the sort of gamble at that price that only truly rich teams can take). Santana should bring someone (if you believe the pessimistic ESPN scenario) or ones (Britt scenario) to be a young solid bat; won't quite replace Torii, but we'll have what, about $15 million to $25 million available from the salaries we won't pay.
(Idle thought: what are the chances that all four Minnesota teams would have shitty offenses in the same year? We are the Land That Points Forgot.)
I don't have a strong feeling at this moment about trading Nathan. I mean, if Joe Borowski can suck (as I predicted) yet still do the job (as Britt predicted), is this an overrated position, assuming you are north of RD? After a monthly ERA that's jumped this summer--from 1 in June to 4 in July to 5 in August--Neshek might be a Pitching Piranha, but it seems to me that Liriano or Big Boy Boof might wind up in the finisher's role. Guerrier's August (.304 BAA) was more an aberration after a good July, so I expect him to still be part of the picture.
Juan Rincon--with an ERA above Ramon Ortiz--shouldn't be a part of this club, nor should Lew Ford. I'm thinking a young club, a year of growth and judicious trades could position us for 2010 (when, by the way, some Twins bats in the deep minors--when they started to draft for hitting--might be ready).
Also like your gents' view of Alexi Casilla, who still gives me warm fuzzies because we got him for the Rincon of 2005, J.C. Romero. He has exciting potential, yet looks like the Tin Man on double plays. In our modified wait-til-the-year-after-the-year-after-next-year, he's fine to wait on, but I can't help chortling about the Beat Writer Bullshit that there was veteran love and unexpectedly little dropoff following the Castillo deal (which I also supported, by the way. I predict Sal Butera's kid will be here about the time Joe Mauer goes to third. Then we'll have the stickless trio of Spann, Casilla and Butera in the lineup).
I'd like to nominate a new post-season award: MVP Who Didn't Bitch Openly. This rules out Santana and Hunter. Barlett? Guerrier? The veteran moaning and/or production drop indicates a modified Cleveland (relying on pitching prospects rather than hitters) might be in order.
Writing all this, I can't help thinking I've overreacted to a .500 year, but that serves it up to you boys to disabuse me of my errors.
Brad Zellar
Well, shit, I just wasted one of the last lovely afternoons of the waning summer watching the Twins once again stink up the joint --this time around it was a team effort: a miserable starting performance from Boof, and another horseshit showing from the offense. Six lousy hits (three from Garret freaking Jones), and nada from the heart of the order. No hits, no walks, no nothing.
Even poor Pat Neshek, who has been valiant all spring and summer in increasingly impossible situations (have you noticed how many times he's been thrown out there in bases loaded situations with less than two outs?), is looking gassed.
Britt certainly did call it back in April, but I'm just going to plead denial. The warning signs were all there, but I've never been a guy willing to pay attention to warning signs in April. Every year I harbor my delusions, and this season the teeth-kicking has been particularly painful.
I've gone back and forth for months on what the hell the Twins should do in their current predicament, and it *is* a predicament. That old adage about pitching being 80% of the game has never been more ridiculous, particularly on a ballclub that isn't even equipped to make up that other twenty percent. How many terrific and almost wholly irrelevant pitching performances have the Twins had this year? Too many.
This is an organization that has proved they can develop pitchers and mix-and-match spare parts to piece together a serviceable staff every year, and they've arguably never had so many solid arms and serviceable spare parts. What they cannot do --as Britt so succinctly pointed out-- is hit.
In an era where offense is the name of the game, a team that can't consistently score runs is beyond frustrating to follow. The guys the Twins were counting on --Hunter excepted--- have clearly labored as they've realized that the team's offense, such as it is, depends entirely on their production. It's easy to say this in hindsight, but there were too many decisions regarding this year's offense that were strictly crossed-finger decisions, and it was apparent early on that the team had no depth. Zero. No margin for error. Too many questions and no answers.
I was serious when I proposed trading Santana, even if I recognized that it would be a terrible short-term blow as well as, in all likelihood, a hugely misunderstood business decision. That was before Santana came out and criticized Terry Ryan and the front office. Given the current makeup of the team I can't see how forking over a couple hundred million dollars for a pitcher, however magnificent, would be anything but a mistake. Ryan and Co. have pitching, and they clearly aren't prepared to let any of it go. A Santana trade makes sense, but only if they got serious value in return --I'm talking a couple of recognizable and reliable bats and some combination of real prospects.
Like Britt, I've lobbied long and loudly that Hunter should be moved while he still had value. This goes back to early last year, and even the winter preceding last season. Right now, though, the guy is probably more valuable to the Twins than he would be to any other team, and I think they should take a big gulp and find a way to sign him.
And given the other looming decisions--Morneau, Cuddyer, even Jason Bartlett--I'd also roll the dice and trade Nathan. Both Neshek and Guerrier consistently pitched under much greater pressure all year than the average Major League closer ever has to deal with, and baseball is full of career scufflers who eventually landed on their feet in the closer's role.
I hope we're going to get a chance to talk about some of the other weirdness that's gone on--and is going on right now--elsewhere this season. The local disappointment notwithstanding, the season's shaking down in a most compelling manner.
Britt Robson
I'm convinced the more people watched the Twins this year, the more inclined they are to want to bite the bullet and make a play for re-upping Hunter. Brad, since you watch the local nine more than me certainly, and probably David, I understand your change of heart. Torii has put together his two best seasons (a much improved offense more than compensating for a slightly less stellar defense), and really has been the best reason to go to the ballpark on days Santana isn't pitching. But big, muscular center fielders in their late-thirties making seven-digit money is exactly the kind of precedent that can ruin the identity of the Twins. No, I don't mean the cheapskate part; but the part that makes shrewd decisions about popular players, like Eddie Guardado or Frank Viola, who weren't worth what other teams would pay.
Here's a ticklish question: When Hunter took a swing at Justin Morneau nearly two years ago now, or when he calls Joe Mauer's pain threshold into question, is that good leadership or pissing on his turf to warn the new young bucks he's still the alpha guy? Because if it's the latter, chalk up another reason to cut him loose. I mean consider the circumstances: Mauer gets the fat contract while Torii passively-aggressively and unsuccessfully lobbies for his own extension. One of the more dominant, and presumably popular presences in the locker room is Mauer's back-up, Mike Redmond, who makes a big show of parading around nude and loudly letting everyone know that they'll have to cut off a limb to get him to beg out of the lineup.
One of the things Strib beat writer Joe Christensen told readers to keep an eye on last week was the clubhouse harmony--or lack of it--during the last month of the season. Makes you wonder how much of a big happy family that group is right now. And that's why I appreciate Brauer's comment about MVP Who Didn't Bitch Openly. I'd say it's a coin flip between Mauer and Neshek.
BTW, have you heard the likes of Dark Star and Sid Hartman loudly proclaiming that Ron Gardenhire should be Manager of the Year? Is it just me or have the Twins played their worst fundamental baseball in Gardenhire's reign this season?
So we all think Santana should be dealt? Wow.
And yes, Brad, I'd love to talk about the rest of the baseball season beyond the Twinkies. Like Ryan Braun, the best hitter I've seen come up since Pujols. Other players who have made baseball fun include Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young, the doggedly underrated Carlos Guillen of the Tigers, the ongoing beauty of Ichiro at the bat and cutting off singles before they become triples or throwing out singles trying to be stretched into doubles. I like the Red Sawk second sacker Dustin Pedroia, and loved what Bucholz did last night (and Lester, back from cancer, with a quality start today). I like A-Rod shoving stats down his critics' throats while continuing to give them ammunition in myriad other ways. I like the way Barry Bonds has canonized Hank Aaron for the ages. I like Jake Peavey's stuff and look forward to a Yankees-Red Sox ACLS with Joba and Super Mario battling the little Japanese lefty and Papelbon in the 8th and 9th innings. I wonder why Roger Clemens and his size 14 head doesn't get the same scrutiny as Bonds. And I think the ballclub that signs Andruw Jones for $3-5 million a year more than Torii Hunter will still be getting the better value.
David Brauer
Injuries are like marriages; hard to understand outside the family. But my gut tells me Torii is doing the good leadership thing with Mauer (and Morneau the MVP year before)--although it would be great to have a beat writer really definitively in on the efficacy of the complaint. OK, maybe it would be better if Reusse did it. In my gut, I don't think Torii's speaking out of turn--though one of the more interesting things about the season is how little I've read from teammates, or at least with true passion outside of Santana, for paying him the money. (Maybe they're all too young or angling for their own bucks to stand up right now. That may say something about the leadership void.)
Next opening day, Torii will be 32. He'll have played a full slate in the last two seasons--though the two years before that he missed 24 and 64 games, respectively. A five-year deal puts him out to the 2012 season, which he finishes at age 37. For comparison, Johnny Damon is a year and a half older than Torii and on pace to have his worst season since 2000. (Interestingly, Damon makes just a million more than Torii, who of course is better.)
There's no doubt that Torii is asking for market rate, and the Twins re-signing him will not be an outrage. He will probably be an outstanding right fielder in a few years, though as Puckett showed, the decline from center can be sooner than you think (even if Torii is in much better shape). I still think the money's better spent/saved on Team 2010.
I will always love Gardy because I toiled in the locker room under his personable predecessor. I can't say the fundamentals or even in-game decisions argue for Manager of the Year. The baserunning blunders and terrible bunts alone doom this ridiculous notion. Still, I view this year as an aberration at this point.
Can't say I follow the other guys like the Roto-Geeks do, but I would add a few highlights: Magglio Ordonez's season. Rich Ankiel is a hell of a story. Always streaky Jacque Jones turning his season and team around (well, as much as mediocrity turns around). KC's Brian Bannister.
Hank Aaron's gentlemanly (and winking) "endorsement" of Bonds was a duplicitous highlight of the year--I was 15 and watching Monday Night Baseball when he broke the record, to Curt Gowdy's narration (we Midwest rubes had no idea Curt was the voice of the Red Sox). I remember the racist crap, and when Bonds' stooges scream racism here, it makes me puke. Go ask Mark McGwire how much he's loved these days. Roger is probably a juicer but with closer-lipped lab buddies.
I will say you're wrong, wrong, wrong about Andruw Jones, Britt--the guy's D has fallen off the table, much moreso than any blip you've seen in Torii. Of course, his average is putrid and his power numbers have fallen (from sensational highs). He's got two years on Torii but is falling faster.
As I make the playoffs at this point, it's Sox-Indians and Angels-Yanks. Boston has owned Cleveland and the Angels have doubled the onrushing Yanks. I'd love to see a Sox-Angels ALCS, though the rest of the country might be rooting for another AL East set-to. I’ll let you rotogeekers pick the NL.
Brad Zellar
The thing you always have to accept about clubhouse chemistry, is that away from the stadium so many of these guys come from --and live in-- completely different worlds. I do think the Twins' clubhouse was a lot more cliquish not that long ago, and I've come to trust Torii as a pretty stand-up guy. I'm not real sure about the Mauer injury situation --other than that is *has* been frustrating, and a bit more mysterious than you'd like, from the outside looking in. I was around for the Morneau incident, though, and even if Hunter wasn't necessarily working from an ideal position (he was injured himself at the time), Morneau definitely needed to be called out at the time.
I sense that there really has been an unusual level of harmony in that clubhouse for a number of years now. Sure, stuff comes along (like the sniping at this year's trading deadline) that rocks the boat from time to time, but compared to virtually every visitor's clubhouse I've ever been in, the Twins have a pretty loose and cohesive atmosphere.
As far as the guys who don't bitch or rock the boat, I'd commend Cuddyer first and foremost, if only because he's always articulate and accessible (and personable), and he did have the one great quote on the heels of the Santana flare-up --something along the lines of, "Terry Ryan doesn't come down here and give me a hard time when I swing at a 3-0 pitch and ground into a double play, so who I am to go up there and tell him how to do his job?"
The fundamental lapses this season --particularly on the offensive side-- have been the really inexplicable (and inexcusable) part of the '07 mess. Like David, I assume they're an aberration related to the struggles and the resulting tendency to press. There's still no excuse for a guy like Nick Punto being unable to execute a fucking sacrifice bunt.
Somebody's going to throw a ridiculous pile of money at Andruw Jones, because a) he's got those two years on Hunter, and b) he's been more consistently great for a longer period of time, and c) he's played for all those winning teams in a very high profile market. It doesn't hurt that he hit 41 homers a year ago, and 51 in '05. There's no question he's declined pretty drastically as a defensive player, but the sort of blip he's been experiencing is pretty common in the middle of a guy's career. I bet he rebounds, and think he's still worth more than Hunter.
Aside from the choke jobs in Detroit and Seattle, and the unreal resurgence of the Yankees (52-29 since June 3), the really interesting stuff has been happening in the National League. The Central and the West have been consistently entertaining. You've got three teams in those two divisions that have allowed more runs than they've scored, and both races look like they're going to go down to the wire. The Cubs, by the way, have been almost as good as the Yankees the last few months, this after being just as bad the first two months.
There are a ton of great young players now, and a ton of fabulous individual story lines, but I think the Ankiel thing is truly mind-blowing, particularly given the psychological meltdown that preceded the transition from pitcher to outfielder. I know you guys know, and I know the players know, but, holy shit, do people realize what a remarkable --and remarkably tough-- thing that is to pull off?
Britt Robson
What I want to know is how Tony LaRussa gets a free pass on totally messing up Rick Ankiel's pitching career, while unassuming schmoes like Grady Little and Cito Gaston get the tar and feathers treatment for lesser offenses. Oh yeah, Little landed on his feet with the Dodgers. Well, the point isn't that I carry the torch for Gaston so much as some dudes are anointed geniuses--Lou Piniella?--and they just happen to be crusty old jerks that crusty old jerk sportswriters can relate to or get intimidated by--like Tom Kelly (nice poke there on the last post David). LaRussa's been traipsing around like his shit doesn't stink for decades now and his team has spectacularly underachieved this season. On the flipside, look at Eric Wedge of Cleveland, who took the increasingly risk and exceedingly bold move of calling out his team as they were in the tank in the midst of a pennant race in August, and they turned the ship around almost immediately after that. Or look at the steady hand Willie Randolph exercises in New York. I'll take Wedge as my AL Manager of the Year. In the senior circuit (nobody calls them junior and senior circuits anymore, do they?), along with Randolph I like the jobs Bob Melvin and Bud Black have done in the NL West. Right now Melvin has the edge for me; unlike Ned Yost in Milwaukee, his kids are playing better and better and he's kept pace in a very competitive division without the services of supposed ace Randy Johnson.
And David, the blend of fantasy baseball I happen to prefer is not roto--I don't trade 20-game winners for .230 hitters just because the latter has 29 stolen bases--but I will defend the practice of fantasy ball by saying that I do indeed keep up with everyone around the league and it has dramatically improved my breadth, if not my depth, of knowledge about the game.
Meanwhile, Brad prefers the press box and the locker room for his dope and it is invaluable for me to hear that Hunter was right about Morneau two years ago--I always had a grudge against him for it. Also good to hear about Cuddyer, who has really grown on me the past two years.
I won't get into silly trade speculation about specific names--covering the Wolves intensely makes me realize how much has to fall into place for any trade to occur--but I think it is fair to say what we'd like for Santana, now that we all want to throw him under the bus (just kidding folks; we know he's the best pitcher in baseball, which is why he will move on to a more lucrative market eventually whether we trade him or not). I think it is inevitable that Mauer goes to third base--or at least I hope it is. I want to watch him hit .340 with 25 homers and 110 rbis for three, four seasons in a row soon and that won't happen with him behind the plate. So I want a quality catcher with big upside and a quality outfielder who the Twins will have to pay huge money for down the road. And if the team can only get one, I'd ask for a high-level prospect and a sleeper that Ryan's crack scouting staff recommends.
As always, you two have been extremely generous with your time and opinions on a Labor Day weekend when you both have other things to do. I can see convening a playoff edition of this in a month or so. Until then, have the last words...and thanks again.
Brad Zellar
Can I just spend the rest of my space bitching about Tony LaRussa? Nobody has ever spent so much time trying to cultivate the mystique of genius --nobody, ever. On paper, at least, the guy has always had the seeming credentials of a flake --vegetarian, dance aficionado, drunk driver-- but he has zero charisma, and he's a pompous jackass. Remember his brilliant strategy of batting the pitcher eighth? God, what a pain in the ass. Lock me in a room with LaRussa, Buck Showalter, and Tom Kelly and you'd have the makings of the most insufferable reality show of all time, as well as my personal nightmare version of "No Exit."
When you look hard at Arizona and what they've done --not much pitching beyond Webb (the Diamondbacks have given up more runs than they've scored), and a pretty lousy offense (when Eric Byrnes is the closest thing you've got to a superstar, you'd think you were in for a very long year)-- it's hard not to conclude that Bob Melvin has either done one hell of a job or he's been very, very lucky. I'd say it's probably some combination of those things, but I'd still give him my vote for NL manager of the year, with Black a close second.
I was trying to think of pitchers who have made decent managers, and without poking around in the reference books I can only come up with Roger Craig and Larry Dierker. What other recent managers were pitchers? Ray Miller? Marcel Lachemann? Rhil Regan? Not a very impressive list.
No idea what the Twins might get for Santana. I guess you'd have to narrow it down to a list of likely suitors, and scour their rosters, which I suppose I'll do at some point. I'd like to see them get a lot, of course, and if Terry Ryan could get Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski he should have no problem coming up with an extremely attractive and creative deal for Santana. Who's got a center fielder, left fielder, and a catcher to deal --presuming Hunter goes and the Twins do, in fact, move Mauer to third?
David Brauer
The original Clark Griffith--Calvin's dad--was a pitcher and manager who compiled 1491-1367 record between 1901 and 1920. Not only is he over .500, he's in the top 20 all-time for wins. He also was a player-manager for his first 14 years running the club. But no former pitchers have been named AL Manager of the Year since the award began in 1983, and only Tommy LaSorda the first year has been an former pitcher capturing NL Manager of the Year, proving your excellent point Brad.
"The original Clark Griffith--Calvin's dad"
Calvin's uncle. Calvin and Thelma Hayes were adopted by the Old Fox.
Couldn't agree more about the ridiculousness of Gardy's complaints about Twins coverage in this town. The Strib was trying to spin Punto positively by talking up his defense and not mentioning his struggles at the plate up until about a month ago.
Nate,
From what I remember (and I can't find stats to back it up), the Twins had 4 home runs from the DH coming into August. Which means it's entirely possible there are NL teams that have more home runs from DH than the Twins do.
I think Gardy got confused when the word sycophant was used to describe the media's relationship with the twins.
Unfortunately, Mauer at third is something of an embarrassment for the draft that was. As a high average hitting, occasional gap finding defensive catcher, he was a brilliant pick at number 2. As a third basemen, we end up thinking, "don't we want a little pop out there?" I think they're hoping Mauer experiences a Torii Hunter or Robert Smith like change from oft injured to durable. After all, his absence this year was only an old football injury.
I think the Twins need an outfielder to take over for Hunter as the top priority. And despite all the nonsense thrown up by Gardy and the Twins, I think Mauer belongs at third base. Yes, he's a great catcher; he's also 6-5 and injury prone as a catcher. Is he really that much of an upgrade over Redmond or whoever else you find so that you'd rather count on him for 90 games at catcher than 140-150 at third base?
Twice this year, Gardy stuck his nose into criticizing the way the team was covered. He ripped KSTP for mentioning Rincon's history with steroids and then the newspaper guys for advocating Mauer at third. I guess it needs to be pointed out that if Rincon was lights out there wouldn't be a question of whether he dropoff in performance was chemically related; likewise, if Mauer stayed healthy the third base clamoring would be quieted.
The idea that the Twins are unfairly criticized in this town is absurd.
Yes, Moroni is right. I'm not sure Kubel is the best fit for left field, but the Twins really need a DH and third basemen. Even if we save money and only get either a solid DH or a solid 3B it would help tremendously.
It is absolutely ridiculous how few home runs the Twins have from the DH position this year. I'm not sure where to get the stats, but I believe that the Twins have fewer HRs from the DH position than any other AL team.
One highlight of the second half of the year has been the play of Jason Kubel. He's hitting lefties nearly as well as righties and in my opinion deserves to be our everyday left fielder next season. I hope he continues his good play down the stretch so the Twins don't sign a washed up veteran to play left field next season. Please, Terry Ryan, focus on third base and DH!
McCleak: I stand by my comment to keep Silva around, especially if Santana goes. As you noted, there's a big difference between "veteran" and "washed-up" - hopefully TR has figured out the difference now after the past two seasons of giving undeserved chances to washed up players.
Here's a question I ponder: After seeing the poor return teams are getting on contracts such as Barry Zito's in SF and some of the others, might there be a chance for a "course correction" at least with starting pitchers? I don't think that would suddenly make Santana more affordable, but it might keep things from getting too insane with Silva.
I think this year's abysmal season will actually be helpful to th Twins next year. If Cleveland and Detroit would have stumbled, and the Twins crept into the playoffs, like last year, the front office would have had an excuse not to do anything significant in the offseason. The media would have given Ryan, and Pohlad another free pass in regards to making a significant offensive upgrade. Due to how the season has gone, I expect the Twins to offer Hunter around 15 million a season for 5 years. Whether he takes that or not is up to Torii, I think he'll pull a Puckett and stay here. I think Ryan will also go out and get another bat. Not sure if he'll sign one, or trade for one, but it will end up saving him money if he wants to resign Santana. I think Johan will take significantly less money from the Twins than the open market, if and only if, the Twins sign or trade for some bats. I think if we show Johan we're gunning for a championship, he'll want to stick around for less money.
If the Twins decide to trade Johan, they should do it now rather than before the deadline. Johan has been the best pitcher on the planet for the last four years, we could hand pick the prospects we wanted in return for him. It wouldn't be a bad situation to get a bunch of hitting prospects for Johan but it will break my heart to see him pitching for another team. I saw a game Johan pitched at Shea earlier this season, and my NY friends were joking that he looked good in his tryout. If he hits the open market it's going to be ridiculous how much money someone gives him.
I said this at the begining of this season and I'll say it again, Twins-2008 World Series Champions! Our pitching is going to be amazing next season and I really believe Terry Ryan is going to go out and get an impact bat this offseason.
As for Manager of the Year, Willie Randolph is a poor choice for the NL. The Mets have underperformed all season. They haven't won 5 games in a row.
McC -
This is why I need to be a rotogeek. You're right, though - the Dodgers need a jolt and Santana would give one. Big marginal upside for LAD in that division.
Plus, Johan would have an 0.Something ERA in Dodger Stadium and that many more strikeouts in the NL.
I like this deal even better because we don't have to face him much!
All in one post:
David,
I was talking about the other LA team, actually. Not as much of a competitor right now, but they have a lot more money to throw around. Plus, they would probably kill to get a guy like Santana on their roster.
Adam,
You're being far, far too hard on Ryan. A big reason the Twins have done so well recently has been his system. It may have failed this year, and he certainly needs to loosen up on trading young pitching, but you can't argue with the results.
Snyder,
I hate the idea of keeping Silva around. A rotation of Liriano, Garza, Baker, Bonser, and Slowey/another AAA guy, the Twins should be solid. I see that rotation as having some trouble early, and then having a solid stretch run (assuming Liriano stays healthy). I don't believe the Twins need veteran help, it's that thought process that brought Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Rondell White, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz to the roster in prominent roles over the last two years. Granted, Silva is better than them, but I think you can get the same production from Bonser and a Slowey type callup. Amazingly, Silva is one of the top starting pitching prospects left, which means he is going to be grossly overpaid. There's no real advantage I can see to keeping Silva around.
Umm, no offense to midlife, but the game in the bar he mentions was a replay from the actual live game that was played yesterday afternoon. So it's likely that folks who follow the Twins already knew they'd lost the game, so didn't care if they missed actually seeing it unfold.
I have not yet seen anything close to the apathy for the Timberwolves with regards to Twins fans. And while I'm disappointed with how the 2007 season has gone, I don't have negative feelings for Terry Ryan that come anywhere near resembling those I have for Kevin McHale. And despite the mediocre season so far from our baseball team, attendance for the Twins is actually up compared to last year, by an average of about 2,000 fans. Maybe there will be a drop-off now that they're all but eliminated from the post-season, but still, not anywhere close to what the Timberwolves have been experiencing.
Midlife,
I don't think the Twins are anywhere near the situation of the Wolves. The Wolves have some newcomers who are young, but there are too many unknowns to believe they are on the road to being competitive at this time.
The Twins, even without Hunter and Santana, have enough young pitchers to be competitive for many years. It would be nice to make a trade of Santana for some hitters, but the flexibility gained from the removal of Hunter and Santana from the rolls, might allow for some signings of quality hitters to put with Morneau, Mauer and Cuddyer. The near future of the Twins with these three on the offensive side and the young pitchers developing will keep the Twins in the race for the division title for the next few years at least.
The apathy is a little let-down from the division title last year and the lack of hitting prospects to call up now that it is September. This is troubling, true, but not nearly as troubling as the daunting situation facing the Wolves over the next few years.
Has anyone noticed that the twins have reached T-wolves status? The only reason we're talking about them is because of possible trades. We don't even have a draft to look forward to.
I was at a bar tonite with the twins game on and someone asked to watch wimbledon so they turned the channel. No protest at all. 3-2 game in the 7th inning and no one cared.
If the team was at all relevant, we wouldn't be that concerned that the team is not in the hunt. This is baseball, after all, and we all grew up with just one team making the playoffs in the West or East.
Why aren't we curious about buscher or rodriguez? Why aren't we watching for Torii to continue his marvelous season?
It's probably because we feel like the management has bailed out on us. It's the same feeling with the wolves when the trade deadline went by last year. We realized (ok, everybody but me realized) that not only was the team getting worse this year but by next year they would make moves to really suck. This year we lost hunter for nothing and next year santana. Can anyone spin a better yarn that the one I heard for the wolves? In that case, it was at least 2 years before competetive. How many for the twinkies?
Personally, if the Twins decide they cannot afford to keep Santana, that would be all the more reason for them to at least try to retain Silva.
I like the team's young pitching as much as anyone, but I really don't want to see a rotation with no veteran presence to speak of. Silva likes it here and he's pitched well, with the exception of last season. Who are the Twins going to find as a free agent to be the veteran presence with today's ridiculous contracts for starting pitchers?
Ruesse made a point yesterday on Such's show about Tori and the most recent reports on the $45 million offer. Listening to Tori on the Barriero show since July, he strongly gave the impression that the Twins were being dishonest and disrespectful in their approach by not even approaching him and making an offer. Ruesse said that Tori's agent, in all likelihood, had told the Twins not to even make an offer because they were going to wait till after the season when they had a better feel of the market. So, the Twins, responding to Tori's complaint, make an offer of $45 million for three years with an option on the 4rth, and Tori takes it to his agent and the agent says, "Tori, what are you doing? We're waiting til the after the season's over, remember?" So, the offer is rejected and Tori is forced to say the offer is not that good and he's going to wait now until the season is over.
Anyway, Tori is likely gone and Santana should be traded, but I wonder about Santana's no trade clause. Perhaps, Tori's departure (and even Silva's too) makes Santana much more likely to accept a trade during the offseason so he can be on a competitive team next year. IF the Twins sign Hunter and SIlva, Santana stays around next year to be with friends and stay on a competitive team, but doesn't sign an extension (unless it is huge), so we lose him to free agency after next year. Not signing Hunter and Silva, might be the best scenario for making a decent trade with Santana.
OK, boys, it is time for a major mid-course correction as you advocate, but here's my worry: Terry Ryan strikes me as one inflexible cat. He has his system, and does not deviate. He refused to talk to Torii or negotiate until it was too late. Had he realized he couldn't have signed him early on he could have traded him over the winter or in May/June.
Johan is making the kind of noises players make when they are disengaging emotionally. I think he's gone as well. I fear Ryan will hew to his system and refuse to enter into serious negotiations or even contemplate trading Johan until it is not practical.
Post A.J. (and you can argue his trade was not bold either, what with Mauer in the wings), is there any evidence that Ryan has the nerve to trade a player with value? Nowadays, he seems to wait until they have accumulated so many bad games/innings/seasons they are worthless or they have so little contract left that it's pointless.
Don't have time for a lengthy comment, but I will say that if the Strib report that Hunter is seeking a 5yr/$70M deal is accurate, I think the Twins should get it done.
I think Hunter has shown this season that he's not injury-prone and that his performance at the plate last season was not a fluke. I have much less of a problem investing that kind of money in an everyday player than a starting pitcher, even one as great as Johan has been the past several years.
Great observation, McC, though it provides a good illustration of the dynamic:
One wonders how much the Angels would give up to get Santana for a year when they can buy him a year later. (One wonders about the timing of contract things - do you get him to agree to an extension and then trade him to a non-sucky team on his list?) Then again, how much is a title worth (assuming they don't win it without him this year, which they certainly could).
Of course, LA - with a well-funded Latino owner, a considerable Latin fan base and roster, and a perennial habit of contending without the rancid media scrutiny - seems to be perfect for Johan. One would hope we'd be lucky enough to face him in the playoffs year after year.
I think the Twins should trade Santana to LA. They've got a plethora of young bats, including James Loney, Matt Kemp, and a passel of studs at AAA (Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Chin Lung-Hu, and Tony Abreu). If the Twins can get two of the kids plus either Loney or Kemp, they should be set to compete through the early 10's.
Ah, the Twins. I think it would be a mistake to trade Hunter, Santana, and Nathan. They should keep one of those guys. I would keep Hunter as his locker room presence is valuable. Of course, since Pohlad has so much god damn money he could keep all three and sign a free agent hitter or trade a couple of pitching prospects for a hitter.
Maybe Mauer's just a wimp and will still get injured at third base?
Bonds: I think there is a case to made that it's odd (maybe not racist) that the Feds have put so much effort into getting Bonds. They are still investigating him and trying to put him in jail for perjury becaues he claims he didn't knowingly use steriods. Two questions: Why only Bonds? Why put a baseball player in jail for steroids?
The first question is more easily answered at first glance but yet it may be related to the second question. Why put a baseball player in jail? There seems to be some level of hatred for Bonds and I don't understand exactly where that level of hatred comes from. Maybe it's because he's still playing but tons of baseball players probably lied to the grand jury or would have lied if given the chance. Why don't they go after McGwire who was the first to break the single-season record under more than questionable circumstances.
No one who actually knows Barry Bonds has accused him of using steriods. The lack of evidence is astounding and makes the wasted federal dollars on the case even more ridiculous and inexplicable. Lack of evidence doesn't mean that he didn't use steroids but there's no more evidence against Bonds than against Clemens or McGwire. Bonds just has the unfortunate luck to be the focus of attention for numerious authors and federal agents. The attenion (especially the legal attention) seems inordinate and silly.
I'm glad he broke the record and I also think it's classy that the man did canonize Aaron when he did it. Of course, Aaron didn't need Bonds to say anything, but Barry didn't have to say shit. He could have pulled a Ricky Henderson, and given the constant writing about what a jerk Bond's is, some would seem to have expected Bonds to say something along the lines of "hank was the greatest, now I am the greatest."
It's unfortunate that steroids infested Baseball in the last 10 years. But Bonds is no more guilty than many players (and don't forget, many, many pitchers). Sure, being the best does create undue attention, but Bonds is the most unbelievalbly talented hitter I've ever seen and I prefer to dwell on that rather than dwelling on sending him to prison and speculating about his hat size.
Brad--
Great point about pitcher-managers. For the past 50 years or so at least, they've taken up nearly half of an average major league roster, and yet form a miniscule percentage of major league managers. Aside from Black, I can't think of a single one currently.