Patrick Reusse may not be the greatest twirler of words in town, but the guy has usually possessed good, pithy instincts and an impeccable sense of timing. Today's column, in which Reusse posits that, A) Cornerstone players Kevin Garnett and Torii Hunter should be traded from the Wolves and Twins, respectively; and B) That it ain't gonna happen; is vintage Reusse and neatly lays out a parallel circumstance that will have a huge impact on my two favorite hometown teams.
The short answer from my end is that Reusse is right that both Garnett and Hunter should be dealt, and wrong that at least one of them won't be in a different uniform before October.
Longtime readers know that I am a huge KG booster who has only recently begun to countenance, let alone endorse, losing the chance to see Garnett deliver the goods for the Wolves night after night. Not that I had many illusions: Nearly 18 months ago I wrote a cover piece for City Pages about how Garnett would never brandish a championship ring with the Wolves logo on it. But the series of events over the past 12 months have convinced me that, even lowering expectations, it is highly unlikely that the Wolves will move beyond the first round of the playoffs during the steadily declining window of KG's prime. Put simply, the moment has passed for this superstar on this team, and barring a trade what almost certainly remains are recriminations, pity, apathy, and anger.
What has happened in the last year? For the second season in a row, Garnett had the indignity of folding up shop early while claiming some sort of "injury" so that the team would be able to retain its first-round draft pick. Philadelphia sacrificed Allen Iverson for dimes if not pennies on the dollar and found itself playing better under freed-up star-to-be Andre Iguodala. San Antonio and to a lesser extent Phoenix and Utah demonstrated the disparity in talent, depth and cohesion between the Western Conference elite and the Wolves. Conference mediocrities who could regarded as Minnesota's peers--Golden State, Portland, Seattle--were given a huge boost by playoff-matchup success or ping-pong ball luck in the draft. And for the first time in his career, KG took a slight step backward, losing a titch to age for which wisdom and experience couldn't compensate, especially on defense. Even if McHale has a superb off-season with the draft and MLE and the team gels better on the court and in the locker room--none of which, obviously, are sure things--the Wolves, at best, seem to be staring at a daunting first-round playoff foe.
Is there a chance that this squad can do everything right and get to the second round and establish momentum for 2008-09? Yup. Is there a chance they can leverage that momentum into budding stardom for Foye/McCants/this year's draft pick while KG plays Shaq to Wade in that equation? Yes, there is. Are those odds good enough to risk the horrible recriminations-pity-apathy-anger combo platter that gets served on this franchise if it doesn't happen? That's the question everyone has to ask themselves. My answer is no.
Torii is an easier call on the game of Deal or No Deal, but still more difficult than I would have imagined even three months ago. When Hunter announced he was finally feeling healthy and ready to have a monster year during spring training, I chalked it up as another chapter in the effective PR he has been staging this past 2 or 3 seasons to receive a legit contract extension and remain a Twin (remember him saying how much he wanted to play on the natural grass of an outdoor stadium in Minnesota?). But Hunter has indeed been the most surprising positive of the 2007 Twins season thus far. While I share the mystification expressed by esteemed colleague Brad Zellar as to why anyone would throw such a guess-oriented and impatient hitter like Hunter anything remotely resembling a strike unless they were way behind in the count, BZ and I have to cop to the fact that just three weeks before the All Star break Hunter has an OPS of .895 and 56 ribbies in 68 games--and hasn't lost as much in center field as KG has being superman defending the pick-and-roll.
It's ironic, really: If Glen Taylor owned the Twins, there's a chance Hunter would get his $60 million re-up even as it inflated the forthcoming deals for the likes of Justin Morneau and Johan Santana (a sage point emphasized by Reusse as to why the Twins can't re-sign Hunter). And if Carl Pohlad owned the Wolves, the incredibly depressing endgame that likely awaits KG and the Wolves would almost certainly be short-circuited (if Pohlad was always the owner of the Wolves, KG would have had a 3-year stay in Minnesota, but that's another story).
Just because it is so painful--and for fans of the Wolves and Twins, painful is not a hyperbolic word, but a legitimate description of the ache--shouldn't obscure the reality that the reasons for trading Garnett and Hunter are greater than the reasons for keeping them. I think that Kevin McHale and to a lesser extent Glen Taylor understand this, know that there is another notch or two to go to hit rock bottom and that they are likely to experience it with or without KG. Then the question becomes, what is the quickest way to emerge from it? For Terry Ryan and the Pohlad crew, the calculation is more clearcut: If the Twins manage to keep contending, Hunter will stay, because loyalty and class are the identity of this franchise. But so is intelligence, and anyone with half a brain knows that the Twins (as they are currently constituted anyway) can't afford Hunter beyond this season if they are to have any hope of retaining Morneau and Santana beyond their current contracts. So then the question becomes, what are the parameters of "contending"? On that front, last year's stirring comeback certainly augurs for patience and hope, and that's a shame, because the Twins don't have the horses to overtake both Cleveland and Detroit and almost certainly won't get past the wild card round in the postseason. But if something could secured for Hunter relatively soon, when his 2007 value as a rent-a-player remains very high to a contender, then I think the Twins' ace scouts could find some diamonds as Hunter compensation to go with next year's promise, when Santana will still be under contract, all the kids--Slowey, Garza, Bonser, Baker--will be a year older, and Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau will be another step closer to a baseball player's chronological prime.
Two bittersweet farewells. Both should happen.
PS--In the midst of writing this entry, I happened to get an email from Jim Souhan asking me to be on KSTP radio tonight to talk about Garnett and the upcoming draft. At this point it appears that may occur early in the 7 o'clock hour.


I say the Twins should keep Hunter, because I think they have the potential hitter to fill the DH spot in their system, or, actually, right on their roster. Once Morneau comes back from a bruised lung (Bruised lung? jeezus, what the heck is that and is it bad? It sounds bad and each day that he remains in the hospital it becomes more ominous), an everyday lineup of Castillo, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, Hunter, SANTANA, Kubel, Cirrillo, and Bartlett, should put them in the playoff hunt right after the Allstar break. Why can't Santana be their DH? Besides, of course, that it has never been done.
Oh, and KG. Keep him, too. Trade away your bad assets and keep your good ones. Sound investment advice. Sign KG to an extension after the draft and after we show him we care by trading Ricky Avis. Ask him what he can leave on the table to sign some free agents, but Tell him we love him and care. Thats all it'll take to keep KG in a Twolf uniform till he retires. Show him some love.
I had thought that Mohammed was on the table for Mike James. I would be shocked if we actually got an offer for Huddy. If we could have done Huddy for Mohammed, we should have done it in a cocaine heartbeat (to quote Bill Simmons).
The trade request is just ridiculous. If we can trade Hudson for anything that doesn't put us in a worse cap position, or acutually help us...I'd love to see it.
I just can't fathom a GM wanting Huddy and his contract, unless they could dump a worse player with a worse contract in exchange. And I can't think of too many guys who even fit that bill.
OK, I have written too much on a subject that may not even be worth mentioning...
What do you guys think of the NBA Mock Draft (Lottery only) that I put together? Do I got something going? Am I way off? General Thoughts?
http://www.Twolvesblog.com
Savvyparker is correct to note that free agency is not the easiest or best way in which to rebuild a team. I agree that it is unlikely that any free agent of note will sign in Minnesota and I also agree that the Wolves should hesitate to sign over-priced free agents who do want to come to MN.
But the ability to get a free agent should really not factor in the decision to trade KG. The Wolves should trade KG because after this year he leaves and the Wolves get nothing in return. Absolutely nothing.
Unless you think there is an excellent chance he will stay, he should be traded. The wolves have to find a way to get something for Garnett.
If they can get a draft pick or two and a young player the wolves win, because getting a draft pick and a young player is better than getting absolutely nothing. If they also get some cap space in return, good for Glen Taylor.
Britt, I do agree on the merits of trading both of these players. But I don't think 1 of them should be traded. KG in my mind needs to be delt. There is no team here for him. There is only folly and disarray. Something tells me whitman will not have much success as the coach of the timberwolves. He will fail to develope players and maximize their talents and convert it into wins. All you have here is a mess. And can any of us really be mad at KG for leaving? I'm mad at the organization. We wasted better part of a great basketball player's career. I'll argue that 1 season that clicked is not worth what kind of crap the Wolves have done.
Torii Hunter though, I do believe wants to stay in Minnesota. He was repeatedly quoted as saying he will work as long as the Twins work with him. But here is the difference. There is a team here playing majr league baseball, the Twins. They have Last year's MVP, batting champ, triple crown winner in pitching a manager that has experience. Torii is a chemistry guy. It's the fact they have a team to have chemistry in is what I'm alluding to. There isn't any team chemistry in the Wolves team.
what is the free agent crop going to be when expiring contracts come off the books? is there a particular stud you guys think would like to come to minnesota when he gets his chance? where's the bullseye? the most frustrating thing about hearing trade speculation (besides the gushing hyperbole over unproven talent) is the overestimated value of expiring contracts.
has there been a recent free agency signing that has provided a solid cornerstone for more than two years?
(i can think of arenas off the top of my head, but that was a second round pick fiasco fixed by the nba soon after.)
who would be the big signing? marion when he opts out? vince carter? james jones? how many free agents cross minnesota off the options list before they even hear about money?
free agency won't solve a thing. we need to pry a vet forward off someone looking to get young with this pick.
The story on the Hudson trade has his agent, Bill Neff, claiming that the Wolves could have traded Hudson for Nazr Mohammed last season but that the Wolves refused.
What the hell? Is Nazr really that bad? Mohammed is signed for only more year than Hudson. Maybe McHale thinks we can do better.
So Troy Hudson is demanding a trade. weird. Maybe Bush is going to demand an exit strategy for Iraq.
Britt, you are right, they aren't going to get any big time free agents whether he is here or not. And, the root of the Wolves problems all these years is that they paid, and Garnett took, too much money. So, shame on Taylor and McHale for paying him too much but also shame on Garnett for putting his salary above the potential success of his team. He's the highest paid player in the league and he isn't worth it from a winning perspective. Whether his salary is worth it from a business perspective (i.e., the gate he attracts) is another question. Its starting to look to me that Taylor questions if the $22 million man can attract enough customers to justify the expense.
Zman--
You're right about Phoenix being skitterish about the luxury tax, and the way that complicates any KG to Phoenix scenario. But griping about no "big time" free agents coming to Minnesota to be with KG is disingenuous, because KG's salary prevented the Wolves from getting a big time FA for anything more than midlevel money.
First, Phoenix has a luxury tax problem and that's why they are trying to get rid of Marion. Picking up Garnett's $22 million salary only makes things worse unless they dump a lot of players. Even though he may want to go to Phoenix, I cant' see the Suns taking on that $22 mil.
Second, will somebody name one big time free agent who ever came here even with Garnett on the team? And don't include the Joe Smith fraud.
Can a team really turn around and trade a player again like that? I thought there were rules preventing that. Don't they have to wait for a while before trading?
We don't keep Amare, we turn around and trade him to Boston for the package Ainge proposed. This, I think, is Ainge and McHale's plan.
I agree Amare is an overrated jerk. But he's a young 1st teamer, and Ainge should be able to sell that one to his constituents.
This would be a good deal for the Wolves and KG. Boston, not so much, but screw them.
Do we really want Amare? Sure's he's a great player, but he's also a certified asshole given his walkout on his team after the playoffs.
I don't want Amare to be in MN and just be a miserable asshole for several seasons. Granted the draft offers no guarantee, but I would be more excited with the prospect of a top 10 pick this year and a draft pick next year as well, along with some expiring contracts and the change to dump Hudson. As I write this I realize it sounds stupid, but it's just how I feel.
Mike,
I said it a few days ago, and now I am certain of it...McHale and Ainge leaked the proposed trade in attempts to establish a market price for their assets. The plan all along was to pull Phoenix into the deal, and to extract Stoudamire, not Marion (as Phoenix wanted).
McHale and Ainge are dumb, but not dumb enough to think they could get around KGs opt out. No team is going to give us anything without assurances they can re-sign KG.
The balls in Phonenix's court. Do they give up Amare?
If we have to get rid of KG, I'd love to see him go to Phoenix and win a championship, whup Timmy's ass in the playoffs, and reestablish himself as the best PF in the game. He deserves it.
Because as McCleak pointed out, if he opts out after next season, the best contract he can expect is a mid-level unless he wants to play for Charlotte or Atlanta.
A sign-and-trade lets him go to a contender and get a salary on par with what he's gotten used to.
Maybe he wouldn't care about getting paid, but I'd be very surprised to see it happen.
The big risk here is the possibility of losing Garnett for nothing at the end of the season.
KG will not do a sign and trade at the end of the year. He will simply opt out and pick his team. I don't think he'll be too concerned with money.
What's more depressing
a) watching the team play sans Garnett this year but having gained at least a few draft picks and some cap space.
or
b) watching the team play with KG this year but without him after that and with no draft picks (promised to Clippers and Boston) and no cap space.
I think option b is much more depressing. The wolves cannot allow option b to happen. It would destroy professional basketball in Minnesota.
I can think of 17 million reasons why KG doesn't opt out and head to a team for the vets minimum. Just because someone has worked for 11 years doesn't mean they are willing to go peace corps for the 12th (running on the assumption nobody here is blogging from a tent). Last I checked, the peace corps carries greater personal rewards than winning an NBA title.
Hopefully he stays and can somehow have a fun year. He seemed to enjoy himself while playing with the kids last year, and all of us enjoyed watching.
Troy Hudson requests today to be traded, per Doogie at KFAN.
This is turning out to be another spectacular example of McHale sucking at his job. He knew KG basically has veto power over trades because of the opt out, so how could he not find out if he was willing to resign with Boston before getting so far along in negotiating the deal?! Now he's angered KG and has no leverage at all. Can this franshise do anything right? Now they've alienated KG and don't even have anything to show for it.
Snyder -
I guess the Wolves could just keep him, but then he'll leave after next season most likely:
- KG knows this team isn't very good and I don't think anyone could expect us to be signifcantly better next season as the roster stands (and with the #7 pick, doesn't matter.)
- I don't think KG likes/respects Wittman all that much.
- KG definitely does NOT like McHale.
Come next summer why would he pussyfoot around with doing a sign and trade (and trying to make all that salary crap work) when he can simply opt out and go to whatever team he wants? That's why he should be traded now, for the future and best interests of the franchise. Then again, with our Front Office running the show, there are definitely no guarantees that trading him will net us a good return.
Following McCleak's logic, why wouldn't the Wolves just keep KG and play him alongside Foye and the #7, whoever that turns out to be?
If the Wolves don't show enough improvement and KG says he wants out, then they can do the sign-and-trade with a contender of KG's liking.
Heard you on the radio tonight - very nice!
I think it's possible that the Celtics would bite if KG is willing to try it out. If they take KG they can try out the Garnett/Pierce combo and see how far it takes them. If they don't get far enough (say, the Conference Finals), then they can trade off Pierce and do a sign-and-trade with Garnett. After all, Garnett wants to win a ring, but can anyone see him signing a mid-level exemption to play with a contender? His next contract is going to be over $15 million dollars, which means that he needs to be traded onto a contender in order for it to work. The Celtics should be able to get a young player, a pick, and expiring contracts for both Pierce and KG. Even if Garnett turns out to be a rental, he's got a fantastic refund policy attached.
We are screwed in regards to anyone that comes here other than an expiring contract. No one, and I repeat NO ONE, is going to want (or be happy) to play in Minnesota with this shitty lineup, sans KG.
Ok, I guess I'm a junky, and it doesn't seem like I get to stay in denial. Back to anger then.
Last summer, Taylor said it would be a mutual thing if it came to trading KG, and it certainly doesn't sound like that now. I would think, given the years of entertainment (and that he was willing to stay through the cold winters) that it would be his choice whether or not to stay through the rebuilding. At this point in his career, to sell him to the highest bidder is just a shame.
After getting excited about the draft, and maybe having an entertaining team to watch, I can't fathom watching crap for the next year(s).
And let's remember something with the improved 76er comparisons: AI is a dominate the ball low % shooter that though exciting, is also quite flawed. KG is a classic "makes his teammates better." It was never a black hole when the ball came to KG so removing him from the court will not help the offense flow and will not expose hidden gems. Besides KG, we have some players who may become good players, but NO ONE has shown they will ever be a star.
McCleak, I think the snafu is that the Celts obviously wouldn't want to do the deal without some kind of promise that KG wouldn't opt out after a year. That he didn't say that--in fact said he would opt out, according to his agent--effectively kills the Celtics trade.
Now that both sides have acknowledged a Garnett trade likelihood for the first time in KG's career, the Wolves have quickly returned to the dilemma confronting them pre-KG: Who wants to come here? Getting Amare would partially solve that because he can't opt out until after the 2009-10 season. But after spending his entire career playing run and gun in the sun for the Suns, how would he feel about toiling under Wittman with Foye dishing instead of Nash in the frozen tundra of Minnesota? We don't really need to answer that, do we?
An interesting thing about the Celtics thing is that Stein makes it seem like (well, actually says) that the Jefferson deal was finished. I'm wondering what it would take for Garnett to accept Boston for a year. After all, he'll have the option of opting out after the next season.
Stoudamire and Atlanta's pick would be ok. I wouldn't mind taking Diaw or Barbosa if they can put together an interesting package with them or maybe swapping Hassell and Bell. But *please* not Marion and certainly not Marcus Banks! Regardless, whoever we get from the Suns will not be happy.
I would have been thrilled to get Jefferson and #5 for Garnett, I guess I got my hopes up too high - forgot that Garnett essentially has veto power over the trade
Damn, Marc Stein is all over this one.
I agree with him...hold out for Stoudamire. It's our only option. Maybe Phoenix will give in and make us take Marcus Banks back as a concession.
Would Celtics offer up a similar package for Amare?
I can't yet bring myself to consider trading KG yet.
At the very least, I think the Wolves have to see what they can get from the draft without trading him. It's unlikely they're going to get Al Horford, but if they can get Corey Brewer or Jeff Green, then I actually think they do have a good chance of getting better. If they could also find some way to trade Pretty Ricky for another serviceable big man to go along with Howard, then I really think they could improve.
Question: If the Hawks took Horford, could the Wolves try going after Shelden Williams or Zaza Pachulia? How many damn forwards can one team have?
BTW, latest on the KG-to-Boston rumors. Not exactly shocking...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2912075
If you haven't seen the news blurb...
KG's agent, Andy Miller, has issued a statement that KG has no interest in going to Boston, and would not sign with them at the end of next season.
Looks like our next best option would be KG for Stoudamire and change. Will Phoenix part with him?
If not, do we take Marion? I'd turn around and trade both, but Stoudamire has higher trade value.