San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
This will be a war, very physical, but don't for a moment believe it will be boring. Neither the Spurs nor the Jazz are a plodding team, both feature creatively intelligent big men and freakishly athletic 'tweeners. The war will be in two places: on penetration and pick-and-rolls in the half-court, where the Spurs' defense doesn't give an inch and the Spurs penetrators are especially fearless; and under the boards, where the Jazz battle for position and gang-bang on the glass better than any NBA team. But there was also be some gorgeous ballet, both in transition and in the synergistic execution displayed by teams doing the bidding of the league's two most demanding coaches, Gregg Popovich and Jerry Sloan. Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his Hall of Fame career.
Let's get to the keys, beginning with Andrei Kirilenko's ability to guard Manu Ginobili. Yes, Tim Duncan killed the Suns in the second round, but that was expected. How well the Spurs played when Duncan sat and the keys to the offense were flipped to Manu was the more stealthy dagger. Ginobili possesses one of the most cherished virtues in sports, the ability to elevate his game in pressure situations. Those who claim players don't get better under pressure so much as maintain their composure and not get worse have never watched Ginobili for an extended period of time. This is a player who lives for the biggest stage, and now has the confidence of knowing he has consistently delivered. His career, internationally and in the NBA, lacks the extreme drama of Big Shot Rob Horry's game-winning jumpers, but has actually been more influential to his team's winning--the window on his crunchtime prowess extends long before the last five seconds of play. The Spurs don't win a ring in 2005 without him, and I don't think they beat the Suns this postseason either.
But assuming Sloan is smart enough to devote his best perimeter defender to stopping Ginobili, Manu will have his hands full with Kirilenko, who snuffed Stephen Jackson pretty thoroughly in the Golden State series. What's easy to forget about Ginobili is that he's 6-6, larger than most guys who try to contain him on the perimeter. He is also physically very wiry, without fear, and a superb physical improviser, all of which make him one of the premiere penetrators in the game. Watch Ginobili compared to Parker, a pretty fair penetrator in his own right. But watch how vertical Parker is; it is all speed, and his finishes are almost always banks off the glass right at the baseline. Ginobili is a wender, continually feinting, crossover dribbling, cutting across the lane, and varying his approach from pullback to clear his shot to barge into his opponent to draw the foul. You don't know if the conclusion will be a banker, a finger-roll, a teardrop, or a melodramatic crashing into the photographers along the baseline as he gets "crushed" goading the foul. How do you defend that? How about with a lightning-quick, 6-9 gazelle with a seven-footer's wingspan who prides himself on defense, loves to block shots and has a pretty fair sense of timing and intuitive intelligence? That's Kirilenko. If he can stay out of foul trouble (and Ginobili is a master at drawing them) and make the Spurs pay for sitting Duncan--preventing the Big Fundamental from regenerating after taking the multi-faceted pounding he'll get in constant small doses that are far more taxing than anything he received versus Denver or Phoenix--than the Jazz have a shot.
Two other keys for Utah to make this competitive: Their two clutch outside shooters, Mehmet Okur and Derek Fisher, have to come through. I'm guessing that when it matters, Horry will be on Okur and Tony Parker will be guarding Fisher. Both are underrated defenders, but both can be beaten. Horry is a step slow and undersized in the paint, so if Okur can have some success down low and then move outside, he could create problems. Parker used to be a real liability on D, but his play on Allen Iverson was a bit of a revelation. I'm guessing Bruce Bowen guards Deron Williams though, putting Parker on Fisher, who will pick and choose his spots better than Iverson, lulling Parker, who is prone to mental lapses on D more than any other Spur starter, into freeing him up for crucial treys. If Fisher and/or Okur can get off from outside, once again the Jazz have a shot.
And why, otherwise, do they have no shot? Well, one reason is because
Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his career. I mean, 9 blocks in Game Six the other night, not to mention all the defensive rotations and quality rebounds. Duncan had David Robinson beside him in the paint for his first two rings, and the third one owed as much to his caped crusaders in the backcourt, Parker and Ginobili, as he hobbled around at about 80 percent. The Duncan we are seeing now may be a step slower, but he is tougher and wiser, and playing like the classic centers of yore, back in the days of Wilt and Russell and Nate Thurmond and Wes Unseld. He's got a little of all those guys in him now. In fact it is absurd that Amare Stoudamire was an All-NBA center this season when it was obvious to anyone watching that Duncan is really a center instead of a power forward, and the best center in the game at that.
Remember when most of Duncan's points came on those 15-footers off the glass? Now, TD is much more of a back-to-the-basket guy, still using the glass but mostly as a culmination of the spin moves. He can still face up and then deliver facials, as Kurt Thomas discovered in the third quarter of Game Five, the unfortunate suspension game. But more often than not now, Duncan is the low post way-station and Oberto or Elson is a bit part in the whole drama.
It is hard not to admire Carlos Boozer's emergence this season, and his ability to score over Yao was the determining factor in Utah's first round victory. But Duncan is a very tough matchup for Boozer, who will also see some of Oberto, and unless he gets some calls from the refs and gets Duncan in foul trouble, I don't foresee him being a positive factor for the Jazz.
That leaves us with Bowen and Deron Williams. I count myself as one of Bill Simmons' biggest fans, but the "Sports Guy"'s calling out Bowen as a manifestly dirtier player than other NBA enforcers was in my opinion itself a cheap shot. Simmons made a big deal out of Bowen being a nonentity in the league before deciding he had to do whatever it takes to stay in the league. Hmmm, sounds a lot like the Suns Raja Bell to me. In fact there are a lot of guys like that in the NBA, although most don't play with the ferocity of a Bowen or a Bell. Are both of them punishing, physical defenders? Yup. Dirty players? Yeah, I guess sometimes, if you want to talk about needing to get in guys' heads with niggling little cheap shots and bullshit ploys. And for Bowen it certainly worked with Steve Nash, the normally kind and unflappable competitor who in the last two games was hollering about being fouled by Bowen when most of the time he wasn't. Was Bowen's knee to Nash's groin a cheap shot? Yup. Was Simmons right to compare it to Amare and Diaw getting suspended to prove the rule about leaving the bench is bullshit? Yes, he was. But to single out Bowen as being somehow much dirtier and worse than others--anybody remember Sam Mitchell playing D for the Wolves? How about John Stockton, Mr. Clutch and Grab, who wasn't above raising his knee when someone was coming into his pick?--was off base.
One thing for sure, you won't hear Jerry Sloan bitching about Bowen (un less he's getting desperate or knows it might work in psychological warfare), because that is exactly the way Sloan played, and his has molded the Jazz in that image. You want t6 watch a physical, borderline dirty player, check out Matt Harpring, who, guaranteed, will receive at least one flagrant foul during this series.
So, what does it all add up to? I can pretty much repeat what I said at the end of my Suns-Spurs preview. (The Suns are a better team than the Jazz, but don't match up quite as well with the Spurs so it evens out.) If the Jazz play their absolute A game it will be a hell of a series that could go 7 games and swing either way, with a slight advantage to the Spurs. But I am guessing that the Spurs will force the Jazz into their A- game and thus the series will result in San Antonio taking it in 5 or 6 games.
After having some moments of reflection from the Suns-Spurs series, I do agree that the better team won and would have if the altercation wouldn't have happened. Tim Duncan is playing incredibly well and Ginobili has always been one of my favorite players. His finishing skills are incredible. But most of all, the Spurs play the best team offense and defense than anybody else left period. In this series, they showed that they can be nasty to the point of exercising that to their advantage, mentally and physically. I just don't see any team left that can hang with them. I think they've conquered their best rival and will coast to another championship.
Take this comment and subsequent conjecture with a grain or two of salt:
Comment: I have heard from two unrelated people both within earshot of McHale that McHale has recently been more critical of KG's leadership than he has been in the past.
Subsequent conjecture: McHale and the gang are getting themselves mentally in a place where the idea of harvesting KG is coming into focus.
Nate,
I would take just about anyone for Ricky Davis or Mike James. It's like trading JR Rider for James Robinson and a low draft pick. Ricky Davis can help win games, but (unless he was in on the team tanking from the very beginning) that's a very long way from helping the wolves be winners. I would be happier with a big man, but Maggette or J-Rich would draw no ire from me.
I, too, am keeping my fingers crossed for Horford or Wright somehow falling to us.
In some ways, I would be more intrigued by Yi than Conley. If Conley waited another year, he would probably be the 3rd PG taken in the draft rather than the first. Also, I think because all of the wolves success came from gambling on someone with the 5th pick (in 1995) and getting used to a multi talented big man makes me a bit more susceptible to the hype.
Nate,
I am in total agreement that the Wolves are going to have to take on some overpaid players if we are going to make some trades, but I would hope that we don't move for guys like JRich or Maggette. 2s and 3s are the easiest positions to fill, and we are already crowded at both spots. Futhermore, we need size and a 3pt specialist, and these guys just don't fit the bill.
I am reading some interesting things on the drafts sites of late...it appears that both Yi and Brewer are moving steadily up the rankings. It's possible that Horford may be there at 7, along with Brandan Wright.
I still have all my fingers and toes crossed for the Wolves hitting the top 2, but we are going to get a very, very good prospect at #7 or 8. Horford or Conley would be great consolation prizes.
I'll post on the Cavs-Pistons before Game One tonight. And I hope to reconvene Zellar and Brauer for another Twins roundtable just before or after the Memorial Day weekend.
That's just my way of saying I will try not to let another ten days pass between blog entries again. I understand that the key to these things is regularity. Occasionally other things in life--various journalism assignments, family, vacation, etc.--will creep in and slow the flow, but I have really come to like the feedback and know that participation is a two-way street. Thanks to all those who doggedly kept commenting in my absence.
To clean up some loose ends: Thought Horry's hit on Nash was an incredibly cheap shot that warranted more than 2 games--double that, or maybe 5. Like everyone else, thought the suspensions of Amare and Diaw were silly, stupid and absolutely necessary in keeping with the spirit of the rule, pointing out that the rule needs to be changed. Bottom line, it was exactly the sort of high profile example that exposed the stupidity of the rule. And no, I do not think there will be more brawls if the rules are relaxed to the point where penalties are more subjectively based on what actually happens during the melees. And no, I do not think the suspensions swung the series to the Spurs--I thought the Spurs would have won the series anyway.
After ripping Bill Simmons for his call-out of Bruce Bowen, I have to admit his KG for Amare trade made a lot of sense for both clubs. Whatever happens, it is a damn shame that Boris Diaw was kicked to the curb so quickly by Phoenix this year. Just as San Antonio lets Ginobili run the offense when Duncan sits as payment for his selflessness in coming off the bench, so Phoenix should rest Nash a little more and have Barbosa defer to Diaw's passing if and when the Suns get stuck in a half-court set when the opponent gets back in transition. Something, anything, just throw Diaw a bone. He bailed Phoenix out with a spectacular season the year Stoudamire was out.
Finally, a quick comment on yesterday's game. There was less cross-guarding of players than I would have imagined. Specifically, Pops let people other than Bowen guard Deron Williams more than I imagined he would, and also didn't stick Horry or another large swingman on Okur. That effectively screwed up Okur in the paint and helped the Spurs rebounding, but gambled on Okur missing from behind the arc. He did, but I wouldn't expect that to continue. Sooner or later, we'll see more Bowen on DWill and more Horry on Memo.
T-wolves: Ricky Davis for Jason Richardson. The warriors want to trade J-Rich, he's signed for at least 4 more years, Davis for only one more. We have to take on a big contract for a guy that is often injured but is a far superior player to RD.
Jazz v. Spurs: Jazz will not be able to dominate the boards as they did against Warriors. Spurs in a cakewalk is my prediction. I just don't think the Jazz are that good, I think they've been lucky. But the Jazz should be able to steal at least one and maybe two games.
Do the Spurs face Cleveland or Detroit in the Finals? I would be shocked to see the Jazz in the finals that I would to see Cleveland.
I'm pretty excited about this series. It's the big fundamental against the big fundamental team. It will be interesting to see if Bowen will effect Williams as much as he did Nash, and I'm eager for the matchup of Kirilenko against Ginobelli the same way I was waiting for Deng and Prince.
I think Britt has this pegged perfectly (again). Utah can't win with their A- game.
I'm rather excited for this series. Consider how the Spurs defend on penetrators, I'm curious as to how many blocks Tim Duncan is going to have by the end of this series. Personally, I'm hoping for a 20-20 blocks-rebounds game, if only for the absurdity of it.
Now what do you think about the upcoming draft? I think that the T-Wolves' draft list should be 1) Oden 2) Durant 3) Horford 7-9) Connelly and Law, with an eye on trading Ricky Davis, picking up Corey Maggette, and keeping their ears open on possible deals for Garnett.