With Houston and Utah still to be decided by a 7th game, my predictive powers on first-round series stands at 6-1, with the Golden State upset the lone blemish (and if you read what I wrote, I knew the Warriors would give the Mavs plenty of problems). In the East, I even had the number of games right, except for calling the Bulls in 5 or 6 over the Heat rather than the four game sweep.

But enough smug preening. Today's genius is tomorrow's fool, as I may well be about to demonstrate with the following picks.

Detroit (1) vs. Chicago (5)
Without slighting the epic Suns-Spurs series, this is the second-round matchup that intrigues me the most, in part because my take seems so much at odds with conventional wisdom. Specificially, how are the Bulls not the faster, deeper, and perhaps even more talented team here?

The marquee personal duel is between small forwards Tayshaun Prince and Luol Deng, and without question it's a dandy. Prince ranks with Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier as the best on-ball defenders in the game today, while Deng is quickening into a star right before our eyes over the past year. At the other end, Prince may be the Pistons' second-best offensive option to Chauncey Billups when the game is on the line, but will have difficulty with Deng, who is no slouch on D and is one of the few players with a comparably enormous wingspan.

It's hard to imagine both Prince and Deng not coming up big--there'll be no dominance either way here. By contrast, the most volatile matchup may be at the shooting guard spot, between Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon. Both are deadly jump-shooters, of course, but until recently you'd have to give Hamilton the decided edge, both because of the four-inch height differential (6-7 to 6-3) and for the fact that Rip has a nonstop motor and Gordon has generally been, shall we say, inconsistent with his effort on the defensive end. Like many of the Bulls, Gordon has stepped up all facets of his game in recent weeks, however, and is shooting with a sublime confidence that will spell danger for Detroit if Hamilton can't dissuade it early. It is vital for Detroit's prospects that Hamilton school Gordon at the other end, drawing fouls on either Gordon or Ben Wallace with his penetration while mixing in those mid-range jumpers Pistons coach Flip Saunders is so adept at choreographing.

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Okay, once you get past Prince and Hamilton, where is the Pistons' team speed? Billups is built like a tank and will occasionally be unstoppable when his long-range jumper is flowing, but Kirk Hinrich is a worthy foil, physical enough not to get manhandled the way Billups abuses most opposing points, and a smart, tenacious defender who will frustrate Billups' ball distribution and force him into taking tough shots. At the other end, if Hinrich regains the shooting touch that abandoned him in the Heat series (one of the precious few things that went wrong for Chicago), then the Pistons are in trouble.

Move on to center and power forward. In the pivot, Ben Wallace and Chris Webber are an apples and oranges tandem; I'd call it a big edge for the Bulls. I understand how Webber has florished under Saunders, but unless Hamilton and Prince are gulping rebounds, the Pistons better be shooting lights out, because Webber isn't grabbing many over Big Ben and PJ Brown will box out Rasheed Wallace all day long. I imagine Saunders' plan will be to spot up Webber for midrange jumpers at the elbow and off pick and rolls, while positioning 'Sheed for treys in the corner and outside the key--the Bulls will either have to bring Ben Wallace and PJ out to guard them, play zone, rotate frequently, or concede the open looks. I think Scott Skiles will have Wallace contest Webber because he's quick enough to recover, and wait and see if 'Sheed can hit long-range. If he does, Skiles can go to Nocioni on 'Sheed, provided Nocioni's plantar troubles are manageable.
With a fundamental horse like Brown and a persistent, clandestine-fouling gadfly like Nocioni on him, how long do you think it will be before 'Sheed pops his cork? Throw in having to joust for boards with Big Ben, and 'Sheed ability to play within himself becomes a problematic dilemma for Detroit.

But the biggest reason why I think the Bulls will win this series is their superior depth. Commentators like to talk about Detroit's front-line squadron, but only Antonio McDyess is a quality reserve. Dale Davis is old and slow, a bad matchup versus the Bulls, and Saunders lacks confidence in Nazr Mohammad. It bears noting that aside from McDyess, no bench player got more than 50 minutes in the four games versus Orlando; why would Saunders willingly give his scrubs more burn against the Bulls?

Meanwhile, Chicago has the numbers to run and gun and wear down the older Piston starters. Not only are Deng, Hinrich, Nocioni, Gordon and Ben Wallace all comfortable in an up-and-down game, but bench guys Chris Duhon, Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas likewise thrive in uptempo settings. Even at the bottom of the Bulls bench you've got defensive specialist Adrian Griffin with a ton of playoff experience, and serviceable backup center Malik Allen.

Unless Hamilton decisively wins his matchup with Gordon, and/or 'Sheed and Webber are converting bushels of open jumpers, I think the Bulls will steadily put down the throttle and wear the Pistons away. Chicago in 5 or 6.


Cleveland (2) vs. New Jersey (6)
The two first-round series I watched the least were Cleveland-Washington and Toronto-New Jersey, so the take here will be necessarily fuzzy. Nevertheless, this series seems to be a referendum on the intelligence of the Cavs generally and LeBron James in particular. About the only way the Nets win is if they entice the Cavs into a track meet that maximizes the talent of their glorious open court stars Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson. A super athlete like LeBron is going to be sorely tempted to take the bait; ditto Larry Hughes and perhaps even Drew Gooden and, off the bench, Donyell Marshall.

Here's why that's idiotic: Who on the Nets can guard Z Ilgauskas in paint? Who can box out Gooden? Jason Collins, Mikki Moore and Josh Boone is what New Jersey has in response. Z and Gooden both shot 60 percent or better from the field against Washington. Working patiently in half-court sets and getting feeds from LeBron and Hughes in half-court penetration, they should do it again against New Jersey. Meanwhile, Toronto's point guards went crazy on offense against Kidd and company--why shouldn't Hughes be able to do the same? And we haven't even talked about Lebron getting his 35, even just working in the flow of the offense.

The Nets' Jason Kidd averaged a triple-double in the six games against the Raptors, but you can expect both Larry Hughes and Aleksander Pavlovic to deter him more than TJ Ford and Jose Calderon, with Eric Snow needing to provide 10-12 minutes of quality coverage too. How many games New Jersey wins will depend on whether Carter goes crazy for a game or two, whether Cleveland stupidly decides to run with the Nets, and whether Z and Gooden collectively pull one of their occasional no-shows in the low block. Playing smart, the Cavs have the power to put this away in five. I'll fudge it a little and say Cleveland in 5 or 6.

Phoenix (2) vs. San Antonio (3)
This is the heavyweight match, with the winner immediately stamped as the favorite to become the next NBA champion. What was most impressive about Phoenix's 5-game blitz of the Lakers was its defensive prowess, and it's true that in Raja Bell and Shawn Marion, the Suns have a pair of rugged, versatile components to throw at opposing offenses. As the epitome of the new uptempo small-ball style, they not only have the best floor general for it in Steve Nash, but have the most evolved defense when executing a full-bore transition game on offense.

But as Dallas discovered to their chagrin in the first round, even potentially great teams run into clubs who just happen to match up in a manner that exposes their weaknesses, and the Spurs certainly qualify as the Suns' nemesis. For one thing, as they proved against Denver, San Antonio recovers to defend transition better than anyone in the league--not only do they scamper back four or five strong, but they're already communicating how to defend switches and other proactive gambits to disrupt penetration, ball movement and open shots. Most clubs are in scramble mode versus Phoenix's fast break; far more often than any other team, the Spurs are playing chess with it.

Secondly, the Spurs offense is vastly underrated, and reminiscent of those similarly underrated Houston Rockets championship teams of the 90s, the first club to fully utilize the inside-outside aspects of the three-point threat. To really make it go, you need a multi-talented big man capable of an almost automatic basket whenever he's not double-teamed, yet with enough instinct and court vision to dish to cutters and three-point shooters--Houston had Hakeem, the Spurs have Duncan. You also need not just one or even two but a group of players who can nail the trey from various points on the floor. Houston had Cassell and Kenny Smith and Robert Horry, and the Spurs have Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili and Brent Barry and, not incidentally, Robert Horry. For the icing on the cake, San Antonio also has two of the best penetrators in the game in Tony Parker and Ginobili, the perfect combo to draw fouls and otherwise burn opponents who are flying around trying to defend both Duncan down low and all those bombadiers outside: Next thing they know, Parker and Ginobili and blowing past them. Raja Bell will be an enormous boon to preventing some of this, and Leandro Barbosa and Marion are both lightning quick, but it won't be enough to handle Duncan down low and still choke off the outside bombs.

As good as San Antonio is, of course, Phoenix is far from helpless. Nash still can't defend anyone worth a damn (Barbosa needs to play plenty on Parker), but when he's in rhythm, it really is the greatest offensive show in basketball today. Nash is no Nowitzki--when it matters most, he'll be a factor. Barbosa is the fastest player in the NBA. Stoudamire may be the fastest center. Marion is a superb finisher who plays four inches taller than his actual 6-7. Bell abets his shut-down D with a deadly three-point shot. The wild card? Boris Diaw, who has generously yielded much of last year's mojo to Amare in the Suns' grand scheme of things, but who needs to get himself more involved both in doubling Duncan and in burying the midrange jumper with the alacrity he showed in the 2006 playoffs.

If the Suns play their A game, this will be a phenomenal series, as good as last year's Spurs-Mavs classic, that will go 7 games and could swing either way. I think San Antonio will compel Phoenix to play their A- game, with the result being the Spurs in 6.