Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Detroit Pistons (1)

If I had any guts, I'd call the Cavs in 6 or 7. That is what my gut tells me--the same gut that said the Bulls would need no more than 5 or 6 games to knock off these same Pistons. Obviously, there is something about Detroit--the overwhelming consensual favorite to reach the NBA Finals--that I disrespect. Naturally I've thought about it a fair bit during the Bulls series--having your analysis turned into foolishness will do that--and I think it has to do with believing the Pistons have bought into Flip Saunders' multi-pass, high jumper, low turnover, low free throw offense. It is a marvelous thing to behold, and the Pistons play it superbly. But missed shots are nearly as injurious as turnovers, and sometimes those jumpers won't fall. If and when that happens, do the Pistons have enough resourcefulness via their defense and their one-on-one capabilities to gut it out? And if not, do the Cavs have sufficient offensive firepower to make them pay?

There are two ways to look at the Bulls series. One, the Pistons hauled off and belted Chicago in the mouth twice with a pair of absolutely sublime efforts at both ends of the court. Having gone up 2-0, they had no respect left, especially when they just flipped a switch in the second half of Game Three and won going away, on the road. The next two tilts were the product of overconfidence and the Bulls playing for pride under a feisty coach.

Another way to look at it is that the youthful Bulls came out both a little nervous and a tad overconfident after sweeping Miami. Detroit was more experienced and better prepared and just undressed Chicago, twice. The Bulls team that ran and shot so well all season and then steamrolled Miami thus never really found their footing in this series until it was too late. When Chicago did settle into what was previously a normal groove, they proved capable of hanging with Detroit and extending them to the limit if not winning outright.

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I subscribe to the second theory--that the real Bulls never showed up, and that guys like Nocioni and Ben Gordon were exposed mentally as well as physically. But if the Pistons dismantle the Cavs the way they did Chicago, even a stubborn skeptic like me has to cop to their worthiness to battle San Antonio (and lose, but that's another story).

This will be a good test for Detroit because Cleveland presents a different challenge than did the Bulls. I thought Chicago would simply be too quick for Detroit up and down the court. That may have been accurate, had we seen the regular 2006-07 Bulls. But what isn't true is that Detroit lacked Chicago's bench. Jason Maxiell and Lindsay Hunter and of course Antonio McDyess, who is a bench player the way Ginobili is a bench player, all had very good games versus the Bulls. But what they don't do is shoot lights out. The starters, especially Hamilton-Billup-Prince, are the key to Saunders' ball movement, jump-shooting game, because when any of those three are open, you expect the ball to go through the net. The other key is that Saunders' offense divides up shots among different players, and having that trio all be reliable is a huge boon to the system. And no, I'm not forgetting 'Sheed, who is less midrange and more paint-or-trey and thus the flexible one of the quartet that scores.

So, why are the Cavs a challenging matchup? Because ever since Pavlovic was inserted into the starting lineup, Cleveland can defend the midrange jumper better than anyone this side of San Antonio. Their quickness is less about running up and down 94 feet, like the Bulls, and more lateral and quick-bursting while defending in the half-court. And that kind of quickness and length may be more troubling to Detroit.

Two other factors make the Cavs an intriguing opponent for the Pistons. The first, of course, is LeBron, who is second only to Kobe Bryant is being a guy to just explode seven different ways and destroy a team (occasionally his own). LeBron was if anything too share-oriented with his teammates against New Jersey, and will probably need to do less driving and kicking and more penetrating against the Pistons. But the greater point is, this is really the litmus test for Cleveland, who have played a couple of mediocre opponents thus far and really have no identity with even loyal NBA fans outside of northern Ohio. This is where LeBron can make his statement, in other words, after a fitful season that saw him mail it in for much of the early months, and only occasionally turn it on in the past six to eight weeks. I don't think he should be a ball hog, and if he wants to devote more energy to clamping down Detroit's shooters beside Larry Hughes and Pavlovic, that makes sense. But he has to make a superstar's impact on some level if the Cavs are to pull the upset.

The second intriguing factor is Z Ilgauskas. Detroit really has no good matchup for him, but then again neither did Washington and New Jersey, and Z was hardly the force he could and should have been in those rounds. He shot a very mediocre 48 percent and got just 11 points and 9 rebounds in 33 minutes against the Nets. More disturbing, he shot fewer field goals than anyone in the starting lineup, including Pavlovic; half as many FGA as Hughes, and ten fewer shots per game than LeBron. He also averaged only 4 free throws per game, and was outrebounded for the series by teammate Drew Gooden. For the Cavs to topple Detroit, unless LeBron pulls a Kobe, Z must give them about 18 and 12, and Mike Brown is crazy if he doesn't explore ways of making it happen. No more shrinking violet in the paint. The Pistons are vulnerable in precious few places, and getting it to the big man when the superstar is double and triple teamed in one way for that to happen.

Detroit has been very successful at running the 3-2 matchup zone that Saunders perfected in Minnesota. It was by far his best defensive allignment with the Wolves, but it also taxed the hell out of KG, the man at the top of the key in what occasionally was a 1-2-2 instead of a 3-2. The Pistons are deadly with it because Tayshaun Prince is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, an indefatigable defender with a seven-foot wingspan who just happens to also be one of their best clutch shooters (better than Billups and Rip, in my book). If Detroit's zone is clicking, expect Lebron to try and take over by himself more often, and for either many points or many turnovers to ensue. James vs. The Zone is one of the great subplots.

The question becomes, who guards Hamilton? Pavlovic had a marvelous series against Vince Carter and is a little too balky to guard Billups. LeBron and Prince will match up on each other. But Pavlovic is going to discover that stopping Rip Hamilton in the playoffs is tougher than stopping Vince Carter, for reasons of mental toughness and a better supporting cast, for starters. Hughes vs. Billups is a great matchup, as Hughes is a gambler and Billups likes to make gamblers pay. Again, if Cleveland can force nearly as many turnovers as they commit, this will be a tight series. And the turnovers, if they happen, will be on the perimeter.

For the Bulls series, I predicted that Rasheed Wallace wouldn't be able to handle the banging of PJ Brown and the gritty annoyance of Nocioni. But neither PJ nor Nocioni was able to do too much and part of the credit goes to 'Sheed (the rest to Saunders' system). Also, 'Sheed kept his head. That said, if I was entering a pool on most likely combatants for a playoffs setto, 'Sheed and Gooden would come in just a hair behind Harpring and Bowen as my pick to duke it out.

This will be a tough, physical series--duh, it's the conference finals, and the unphysical teams have gone home. But again, my gut tells me that Detroit is the least physical of the four remaining squads. Will that matter in this round?

Hamilton, Prince and Billups are, in the end, very tough to pick against when you are staying inside the Eastern Conference. Of the variables Cleveland needs, I think LeBron will explode once or twice, that Hughes will embarrass Billups once or twice, and that Z might even get off once or twice. Cleveland will even win twice or thrice as a result. The gut says the Cavs, the head overrules and chooses Detroit in 6 or 7.