Regular Season Game #72, Home Game #35: Miami 92, Minnesota 77
1. The Fab Five Strike Again
The Timberwolves were being blown off the court by the supposedly aged Miami Heat. In the space of 67 whirlwind seconds, the Heat had stolen passes, leaked out on Minnesota's missed shots, and just generally hustled themselves into four layups, turning a three-point deficit into double digits in a blink, running the score to 10-21 with 3:26 to go in the first quarter. It was the latest shoulda-been embarrassment for the club that knows no shame.
Trenton Hassell was the designated scapegoat, banished to the bench after that flurry, never to return. Never mind that point guard Jason Williams assisted on three of the hoops (not counting the two he dimed before the run) and scored the fourth, while Minnesota point guard Mike James was...where? Never mind that Ricky Davis was guarding either James Posey, who had four points (two of those leak-out layups were his) and one assist, or Eddie Jones, who had six points at the time (Hassell had the other one in non-zone situations). This isn't to defend Hassell, who played like crap, but did manage to have two points (and a pair of missed FTs) and an assist, plus a rebound and a turnover. James? He went scoreless--not just in the first quarter, but in the entire 19:22 *he* was allowed to play--but had two assists and zero turnovers at the time Hassell was benched. And Davis had zero points, zero assists and a turnover at that 3:26 mark when Trenton was banished.
Asked after the game if the flurry was why Hassell didn't return, coach Randy Wittman, without mentioning Hassell, said, "Those four guys I just mentioned came in and gave me effort. Those are the guys who were going to play."
Ah, those aforementioned four guys Wittman called out by name--Jaric, Foye, Smith, and McCants--who teamed with KG. *That* lineup: the one that won the game against Indiana in the 4th period and has been used only in high-substitution situations or garbage time, at best, ever since. The lineup that is so obviously meshes best in the present while building for the future, to the point that Wittman's aversion to it has led to the suspicion that this squad is tanking games to ensure they keep their draft pick. That Fab Five did eventually play together--with 9:31 to play in the second period, a good six minutes after Hassell was given the hook.
Here's the way Wittman got to that five: Jaric for Hassell with 3:26 to go in the first. Foye for James, and Smith for KG, with 1:33 to go. End of first period with Minnesota down 11, 14-25. Then, after Antoine Walker hit a six-foot bunny, Posey glided in for another layup, repeated it for a reverse layup, followed by a Udonis Haslem slam, all within the first 2:22 of the second period, Randy Wittman decided to use his most effective lineup down 16-33 with 9:31 to play in the half. He subbed in McCants for Davis, and KG for Mark Blount.
Boom. McCants drove for a layup. Garnett fouled Mourning, who hit both free throws, but then KG nailed a 17-footer, stole a pass from Walker and fed Foye for a layup as he was fouled (Randy completed the three point play), and McCants blocked Mourning's shot. A slightly nervous Pat Riley subbed Shaq back for Zo and Eddie Jones in for Posey, which didn't prevent KG from nailing a 21-footer off a feed from Smith; Garnett making another steal off a Haslem pass and eventually hitting another long J on an assist from Foye, and then, to top it off, Garnett barreling down the floor and just before he was about to go up dumping it back to a roaring Smith, who tomahawked home a slam dunk. That's a 13-2 run, folks, cutting the lead to six, and although the Heat quickly doubled it on successive treys by Williams and Jones, the tenor of the game had changed from the absurd blowout that was brewing before the Fab Five were allowed to reunite.
Miami's lead was 10 when Mark Madsen replaced Smith with 3:47 to go in the half, followed a minute and a second later by Davis replacing McCants, and 59 second after that by Blount subbing in for KG. We wouldn't see that lineup again. Oh well: Wittman said those guys who gave effort were going to play--he didn't say they were going to play together. Because you can't have *too* much effort in one place when your personnel guy has fumbled away a draft pick if you play too well. Miami won going away, 77-92, making Minnesota a net -195 versus their opponents over the course of 17,388 minutes thus far this season. Because the Fab Five got to play a whole 5:44 together tonight and were a +7, that makes them a +46 in 64 total minutes of play this season. That works out to a 34 and a half point win per 48 minutes of play. And, not incidentally, it unites and energizes the team's superstar by playing him alongside the team's top three draft picks from the past two years, and a complementary player already signed through 2011.
When it was noted after the game that this Fab Five seems to have a nice rhythm and flow going whenever they do get the chance to play together, Garnett replied, "They do have a nice flow but if it ain't on the floor, I have to flow with what's out there. It is more of an energy group. They are agressive, they play with a lot of energy and a lot of confidence." And KG, who had 22 points and 20 rebounds in the 15-point loss, mostly had to "flow" with the likes of Blount (33:02, 4 rebounds, -18), Davis (35:14, 5 turnovers, -22).
2. Tick Tock
Coupled with the Clippers win, the loss to Miami puts the Wolves five games behind the 8th and final playoff spot with 10 games left to play. Minutes for Foye: 28:38. For McCants: 15:14. For Smith: 14:31.
3. Talk Amongst Yourselves, or Chime In On the Diamond Diablog
There will not be a trey following the Wolves-Orlando game on Sunday. Instead, I will post a "diablog" between myself, David Brauer (former sports columnist for the Twin Cities Reader among many other things), and Brad Zellar (the author of the baseball blog Warning Track Power at this rakemag.com site) about the upcoming Twins season on Monday morning. Use the comments section vent and wax eloquent about tonight's game and the Orlando tilt. Rest assured I'll be posting Three-Pointers on most of the rest of the Wolves games this season, and into the NBA Playoffs. But this blog has a sort-of generic name for a reason: I'll be posting about the Twins as well during their season, and if the response is good, may just keep it going until the suddenly coveted NBA draft and beyond.
You're right. No rookies are shooting the 3 very well. I'd rather compare Randy's shooting to the rest of the starting PGs in the league. That's his benchmark, not this crummy lot.
I think we agree that Randy needs to work on his shooting. I just think he needs to work on all aspects...mid range, 3 ball, and even finishing at the hoop (let's be totally honest, 57% of layups is not great either).
If he can do that it'll open up so much more for him and the entire offense.
Foye needs to shot at least 38 percent from downtown to be considered a top ten NBA point guard. It's reasonable to expect him to reach that level in the next couple years, though not a given. For the Wolves, his three-point accuracy is more important than it should be because of the club's roster-wide ineptness from the outside.
I agree with Patrick that Foye's current percentage from three isn't anything to get excited about. True it's not horrible, but keep in mind that Mike James, who everyone on this board has cursed for clanging an open look at some point, is shooting long balls at a sharper clip, slightly less than 37 percent, than Foye is.
Further proof of the need for Foye to develop this part of his game is the fact that every top team in the league has a point guard who can hit the three better than any Wolf.
Patrick:
By your standards basically no rooks shoot acceptably from the 3. I say baloney! Only Bargnani (whose 3 pt shot in Europe was 9 inches longer than the NCAA's) is appreciably north of Foye among top tier rookies with at least 100 attempts.
Bargnani , TOR 99 263 .376
Gay , MEM 49 135 .363
Roy , POR 47 132 .356
Foye , MIN 52 150 .347
Garbajosa , TOR 66 193 .342
Morrison , CHA 83 250 .332
Farmar , LAL 41 127 .323
Diawara , DEN 47 167 .281
Williams , NJN 40 143 .280
The 3 is not where Foye needs work to climb the NBA ladder.
More fun with numbers. A couple of points that get lost in the numbers...
1) .347 is not acceptable three point shooting, and you can not merely look at the points equivalent. Missed threes lead to long rebounds that often serve to ignite the break for the defending team, while missed mid range shots usually offer put backs, or at least offer our rebounders a challenge at the ball.
2) Foye misses A LOT of wide open looks. This doesn't show up in the numbers, but it's true...and it's the reason why we are even having this discussion. I don't see Randy shooting over people unless the clock is expiring. And comparing his numbers to KG or Ricky, who usually have a hand in their face, is a little misleading.
I am not a Foye hater, but let's tell it like it is, rather than kidding ourselves with stats. The guy needs a lot of work on his shot, and hopefully he spends the summer working on it.
You're right Britt - if there needs to be an Achilles' Heel, area 2 is the best. If its area 1, then he's soft and if its area 3, he probably lacks touch. Area 2 for Foye is more about learning curve and on-court comfort.
The problem for the Wolves this season is that 45% (260/584) of his attempts fall in area 2.
This off-season he needs to work on bridging the gap, not with work on spot-up 15s, but the contested jumpers, the aborted drive attempts and the create-a-shots that all come from being the point.
Yeoman work by both Levi and AK. I'd add that, like many non-natural point guards, Foye is not particularly adept at dishing off the dribble if that wasn't the plan in the first place. As teams begin to scout his proclivity for treys and penetration, they force him to put the ball on the floor on the perimeter and then slide over when he drives. The quickness of the NBA prevents Foye from getting to the hole as easily as in college; thus, he finds himself pulling up off the drive more often--and clanking those mid-ranges.
Second thing: Having all three components--trey range, penetration capability and an accurate midrange--is pretty rare in any player, let alone a rook (Davis has the strongest assortment on the current roster, and his penetration ain't what it used to be). This may be lipstick on a pig from a Foye defender, but if you've got to be deficit in one of those three areas, best that it the midrange--especially on a team with KG, Blount, and Davis.
Levi -
Huzzah for digging in and analyzing one of the key building blocks for the Wolves' future.
A couple of your numbers are off, but the thrust of your statistical analysis remains valuable. Quick cleanup: 52 / 150 from 3 pt is a .347. 92 / 260 mid-range is a .354. Now we can return to our regular programming.
Let's break Foye's shooting chart into three areas:
1) less than 7 ft
2) 7ft to 3 point line
3) beyond the 3
In area 1, a .571 plus all the trips to the line seems rock solid for a rook guard.
Similarly in area 3 a .347 is fine - its the equivalent of a .521 because each make is worth 50% more (3 instead of 2).
Area 2 is unacceptable and needs improvement. Symptom: below standard mid-range shooting. Possible diagnosis:
* far more contested jumpers in area 2 than area 3 (poor shot selection by Foye)
* Area 2 shots are mostly self-created in Foye's new role as point guard (as opposed to more spot up 3's coming from a pass)
My sense is that the problem is curable and that it relates to his new role as NBA point. If his 3 pt shooting were poor (it isn't) then I would say its mechanics or touch related.
My guess is that Foye's area 2 shooting problem has more to do with the fact that a lot of these shots come when he is simultaneously trying to run the offense. As he gets more comfortable at the point, his mid-range % should improve.
I calculate Foye's mid-range shooting % to be .353
By the numbers (no need to read, other than to check my math)
Total FG% .419 (249-594)
Breaking that down, we find:
3pt% .391 (52-150)
According to 82games.com, Randy has taken
"inside" shots for 31% of his attempts,
and shot .572 there.
(594 attempts) * 0.31 = 184 "inside" shot attempts
(184 attempts) * 0.572 = 105 inside "makes"
...likewise...
(594 attempts) * 0.69 = 410 "outside" shot attempts
Subtracting the 150 3ptr attempts from 410, gives
him 260 2-pt "outside" attempts. Subtracting
3ptrs made (52) and "Inside" shots made (105) from
the 249 total makes gives him 92 mid-range jumpers
made.
157 / 260 = .353
Could it be that Taylor is finally seeing the light?
http://www.twincities.com/walters/ci_5567902
Or is this just more of Shooter's grasping at straws?
Randy's shooting is definitely an issue. Especially the fact that nearly all of his non-drving shots are wide open looks (which he's missing at an unacceptable rate). Thankfully, the kid is a hard worker, and should get better with time. As a PG, he needs to be able to hit the three with some consistency in order to keep the D honest and open up his own drive. While, we're at it...you'd think with all these guards, we'd have ONE that could shoot from long range!!
Thanks for the 30pt + game Ricky! Hopefully you didn't cost a spot in the draft order.
I think Foye's jump shot will continue to improve. It's a good sign that he's shooting better this year than in college and if works on his shot it will get better.
I always read that the jump shot is the easiest thing for most players to improve. Foye has pretty good mechanics so I expect he'll be a good shooter. Given his ability to drive to the basket (at least in some games!) he should be able to get open looks.
yes, it sucks that we won. It would be really silly to lose this draft pick.
This is in regard to the Orlando game:
What the HELL IS GOING ON!?!?!?
Does anyone in this organization have a freaking clue? Why does KG play 44 minutes? (38 in regulation). What the hell... rest the guy. Why are we trying to win games??? Geesh... We could have gotten the 5th or 6th worst record in the draft. Not now, we are currently in 11th place, with a good chance to lose our pick completely.
Have any of those idiots running this team seen Greg Oden or Durant play?!?! 1 ping pong ball could make all the difference in the lottery. Who is going to answer to the fans when we don't make the playoffs (because it WON'T happen) AND we don't have a draft pick? What excuse will they parade out then?
Two other minor things:
Not trying to start something or nag on KG, but am I the only one that thinks he sets a huge amount of illegal screens and always gets away with it? He's always moving or sticking his hip out when he screens for the PG. Man, I've seen a lot of other guys around the league get a foul called for a lot less. It's cool I guess that they never call him for it.
Lastly, Foye's shooting. He's currently shooting 41% this year. I was concerned when we drafted him because he only shot 39% in college. I would think it would be harder to improve your % in the pros than in college, so that's not a good sign. Is it just me that thinks his shot is broke this year? Is anyone else concerned at all?
In addition to heart, Pooh also had 15 points and 8 assists per game. Ah, the bad old days.
It is just what people are saying. Seeing the kids play is just night and day. The effort is there. Guys at least were putting a hand up on defense. They were hustling.
Honestly, I was hoping Pooh would suit up for the Wolves, at least that guy had a heart.
Ok, I'm with the majority of people on the tanking. Play your youngsters see what happens and sit the "star" players. They can't honestly think they are going to the playoffs. Can they? We need to get lucky.
Ok let's suppose we get the #1 over all pick. Would anyone bet against McHale taking someone other than Oden or Durant? I can see it now... "With the number one overall pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select, (Insert unknown, never seen name before here) "
Or, they will trade ricky davis and the #1 overall in a package deal for jamal tinsley...and a 2nd round pick.
I'm a big proponent of the "KG and the Kids" line-up, and I'm also a big supporter of McCants. It drives me crazy that we still only get that line-up in dribbles, because we still don't have enough evidence to support whether that crew could legitimately compete over a long period of time against starters or whether it can only be a "hustle" group.
Some have put forth a conspiracy theory that the Wolves brass are tanking with the vets...I tend to agree more what Britt says, that they are trying to prevent a vet revolt by sitting the kids. But honestly, the more frustrating part to me is that I'm not convinced that they even realize how much better the Wolves play with the Kids than they do with the vets. And this is the only Wolves media outlet that I've seen that consistently addresses it, so my hope is that through you, Britt, SOMEONE in the Wolves brass can come to the realization that the kids are likely the best options for NOW, not just for the nebulous future.
As for McCants, he proved last season that he can score at this level. Even in the bad case scenario that he doesn't recover his explosiveness (I think that he will), he should still get his 3-point game and his post-game back, which should still make him a consistent scoring threat. So the fact that he is showing that he can thrive as a hustle/defensive role player with zero offense is VERY encouraging to me. To me, McCants is showing this year that he can do all of the little things that people questioned about him last year. And if/when he can put last year's offense with this year's intangibles, he should be a very good player.
Nice article. It was great to see the numbers when our young guys are on the floor together. That should definitely be our starting lineup. Unfortunately, Ricky, James and Blount would likely give even less effort than they already do, were they to come off the bench.
I really don't think Wittman is trying to tank. He's just a poor coach with crappy personnel and even crappier rotations. I never thought I'd say anyone was a worse coach than Casey was, but it appears that Wittman has secured the title of "worst Wolves coach ever". The sad part is, he'll likely be back next season.
I was at the game - until just before halftime. Basically, it just wasn't watchable anymore. Davis, Blount and James just don't do it for me. Foye comes in and forces a pass in to KG, who was already double, almost triple, teamed - my hopes for Randy at point guard are greatly diminished. Why does Ricky Davis refuse to take a place rebounding on free throws, instead sending Foye down amongst the tall trees when Foye's man is out on the perimeter waiting to break? And KG begins to show his frustration.
Is a draft pick so really valuable that the Wolves "brain trust" would try to (ever so slyly) tank the rest of the season? Or is this debacle merely pure ineptness on Wittman and McHale's part? I'm not sure I'll stay tuned to find out.
Woe to the Wolves if KG, like me, votes with his feet.