The Rake Magazine

Minnesota played its best basketball game of the season to beat Utah earlier this season. They played one of their worst, least inspired games in the rematch with the Jazz, a contest in which my criticism of the Wolves' effort was greeted by many commenters with: "We knew they had no chance because Utah remembers what happened the first time and wants revenge."

Okay, I wasn't there this afternoon--out of town on another assignment--so what happened?

As in the first game, it looks as if the scoring was very balanced, with seven players in double figures, and an 8th, Randy Foye, with 9 points on just 5 shots. Kirk Snyder, bumped from the starting lineup for the first time in nearly a month, led the Wolves in plus/minus and Jefferson, McCants and Gomes led them in scoring. On paper, it looks as if D-Will had a bad game.

So chime and let me know what happened.

^{AP Photo by David J. Phillip}

American League East

1. Boston Red Sox

It's more interesting (or at least less conventional) playing Devil's Advocate about why the Sox *won't* repeat as pennant winners. Practically everything went right last season: Papelbon's shoulder held firm and Beckett's blisters didn't grow, and every rookie was off-the-charts good, from spunky Pedroia to no-hit Bucholtz to speedy Ellersby to the supreme set-ups of Okajima. Okay, so Dice-K was shaky and Ortiz was one-legged, and Manny couldn't always be Manny at the plate and Drew was horribly inconsistent. The odds of those negatives repeating are greater than a reprise of the positives. I mean, Manny is 36, Papi can't hit any better than last year even with two good knees, and Dice-K and Drew aren't the kind of performers you entrust with the mortgage money. And Curt Schilling is toast, Mike Lowell is old...Okay, back to reality. They have the best balance of pitching depth and hitting depth in all of baseball. Their Vegas odds are the lowest on the board. As April dawns, they are the team to beat.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Yup, the Jays will overtake the Yankees this season. Their starting rotation stacks up with anybody--Halladay a legit ace, Marcum and McGowan a pair of live arms coming into their own, and AJ Burnett an injury-prone stud at #4. Closer BJ Ryan's elbow injury in early May actually fortified the bullpen for this season as Accardo, Downs and Janssen all stepped up--and now Ryan is fast on the mend. Meanwhile, outfielder Alex Rios is a budding star, Vernon Wells is due for a big comeback, and snagging the left side of Cards' 2006 champion infield--3B Scott Rolen and SS David Eckstein--to go with great glove man Aaron Hill at 2B will make all those ground-ball pitchers on the staff happy and wealthy. The Blue Jays are ready to compete with the big boys.

3. New York Yankees

The George Steinbrenner-Joe Torre era is over, yet the roster looks distressingly similar. There's a hell of a lot of pressure on young pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to produce, because it's hard to see how the Yankees improve enough to surmount the Red Sox and not get overtaken by the Blue Jays otherwise. Two-thirds of their batting order is in decline: Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, and yes, even Jeter (now 34). Ditto starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina and Mariano The Great in the pen. So, what, A-Rod is supposed to knock in *more* than 156 runs this year to make up the difference?

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Even after jettisoning hot prospects Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, their lineup is no longer a joke. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are five-tool players, Carlos Pena can lose a third of his long-ball production and still hit 30 dingers, and there is some potent old (Cliff Floyd) and young (Evan Longoria) help on the way. But the starting rotation needs to quicken: Would-be ace Scott Kazmir is still teasing out his upside, Jamie Shields needs to show he can put together back-to-back solid seasons, and the Twins' scouting staff isn't in the habit of giving up someone like Matt Garza unless there's a significant flaw in his makeup. Even so, you throw in former Dodgers hot prospect Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine as your #5 and that's a talented rotation with nobody over age 25. The Rays are emerging.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Finally they rebuild in earnest, although trading Eric Bedard to Seattle was lunacy even if they did pluck a potentially great center fielder in Adam Jones out of the deal. Aside from nascent star outfielder Nick Markakis and Jones, there aren't any uber-talented kids shoving the likes of Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez out of the way. And their pitching is wretched. When you can't sell out Camden Yards any longer, you know you've been doing something very wrong for a pretty long time.

American League Central

1. Cleveland Indians

The Indians-Tigers and Red Sox-Blue Jays-Yankees both should be hotly contested races from wire to wire. While the Tigers retooled in a major way, the Tribe stood pat with a dignity and wisdom Twins fans will recognize. Their homegrown beef brothers CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are the league's best 1-2 mound tandem, their bullpen took a quantum leap forward last season with the emergence of Betancourt and Perez, and back-of-the-rotation vets Westbrook and Cliff Lee will be healthier (physically and mentally, respectively) this year. At the plate, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez should be close to their glorious primes, Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera represent a promising new right side of the infield, and Casey Blake is unsung but effective. Even so, the Indians' hope of outlasting Detroit may rely on Travis Hafner not imploding.

2, Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera is a stone-cold hitter who might give A-Rod a run for his money in the power categories this year, but the other plum from Florida, pitcher Dontrelle Willis, is less of a sure thing. Too bad, because after certifiable ace Justin Verlander, the rotation is iffy. Jeremy Bonderman broke down last season, Kenny Rogers is on his third installment of borrowed time, and Nate Robertson is an innings-eating mediocrity (not that there is anything wrong with that). Oh, and the bullpen is weak, from middle relief right through to closer Todd Jones. Nevertheless, the Tigers will win a lot of 9-7 and 11-9 games. Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield are aging, and another 139 ribbies from Magglio Ordonez is unlikely, but with Cabrera and SS Edgar Renteria on board and Carlos Guillen moving to first base, there are no weaknesses in theTigers' batting order.

3. Minnesota Twins

Although many pundits are picking the hometown nine 4th or 5th, I don't think I'm drinking the local kool-aid. Morneau and Cuddyer should find a productive mean between their last two seasons and Mauer should be healthy enough for a career-best OPS--and if he's not, let's play him at 3B finally, okay Gardy? Delmon Young replaces Torii Hunter's bat at a fraction of the price and is going to get better a lot faster than he gets more expensive. Yes, the staples of pitching and defense have taken a hit, even with the second coming of Mark Belanger, Adam Everett, taking over at short. Baker, Slowey and Bonser sounds better as a law firm than as the top half of a starting rotation--I haven't forgotten about Livan Hernandez; I just don't expect much beyond his workhorse capabilities yielding mediocre results. If the vegan might of Pat Neshek can hold until autumn and Dennis Reyes is more than a one-year wonder (two years ago) the bullpen will be a strength. But mostly I'm picking the Twins third because the White Sox are still dysfunctional and the Royals are ready to ascend yet.

4. Chicago White Sox

Ozzie Guillen doesn't seem like a great manager for encores, The Pale Hose are a ballclub that need to tear it down to close to the studs, but instead they're sticking with the Konerkos and Credes and Dyes and AJs and Thomes in order to have their foolish dreams rudely abused by the Indians and Tigers. Nick Swisher was a nice pickup from Oakland, and sooner or later room has to be made for Josh Fields at third over Crede, and the Cuban kid at second, Alexei Ramirez, could be exciting. But acquiring Orlando Cabrera for shortstop and keeping Javy Vazquez and Jose Contreras in the rotation means that the profane Guillen and company are in it to win it--and when they don't, things will get ugly.

5. Kansas City Royals

The ceiling on erstwhile prospects like OF David DeJesus and C John Buck and P Zack Grinke seems to be lower than anticipated, but the Royals finally seem to be headed in the right direction anyway, thanks to former Atlanta exec Dayton Moore, a GM who is building for the long haul from the ground up. In Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, KC has two dangerous young hitters, and Tony Pena Jr. flashes the sort of leather than can anchor an infield defense at shortstop. Until Moore can choose and develop a few more quality pieces, the Royals will rely too heavily on dime-store "stars" like pitcher Gil Meche and outfielder Jose Guillen to carry them. But it is not hopeless any more--or at least not for long.

American League West

1. Seattle Mariners

Casual fans may be surprised by this pick, but the Mariners are due. They've got one of the top five payrolls in the league, one of the 5 oldest rosters, won 88 games last year, and added arguably the best pitcher remaining in the AL, Eric Bedard, to their staff. Paired with King Felix Hernandez, 16-game winner Miguel Batista, and veterans Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, the rotation is among the league's elite--and their closer, JJ Putz, stands alongside Joe Nathan as the best in the game today. On offense, the M's still have Ichiro, an underrated if aging hitter in Raul Ibanez, and decent run producers for their positions in C Kenji Johjima, 2B Jose Lopez (who will bounce back closer to his 2006 breakout) and 3B Adrian Beltre. Even middling seasons from 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro would help. The bugaboo is defense, especially in the spacious outfield, where Ichiro will go on his own WeightWatchers plan trying to cover ground between Ibanez and pudgy Brad Wilkerson.

2. Los Angeles Angels

It seems every year some promising contender is snakebit by injuries, and having their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvin Escobar, go down with ailments this spring points toward the Halos as this year's hard luck story. Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game at manufacturing runs, and with the signing of Torii Hunter to protect Vlad Guerrero in the batting order and the acquisition of Jon Garland for the rotation, the Angels clearly mean to go for it all in 2008. But can the likes of Jered Weaver, Garland and Ervin Santana hold the fort until Lackey and Escobar return?

3. Oakland Athletics

Oakland will exceed expectations and approach last year's 76-86 mark despite a massive rebuilding campaign because, as usual, the front office can identify talent. Outfielder Travis Buck, 1B Daric Barton and C Kurt Suzuki are ready now, and OFs Chris Denorfia and Carlos Gonzalez aren't far away. As placeholders go, 2B Mark Ellis and OF Emil Brown aren't too shabby, and sooner or later the left side of the infield, Crosby and Chavez, have to be healthy on the same day--don't they? More to the point, a rotation led by Rich Harden and Joe Blanton with lefty Dana Eveland coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal is miles better than Texas, enough to keep the A's out of last place.

4. Texas Rangers

What a mess. The pitching staff is heaped with underachievers like Millwood and Padilla and Jason Jennings, the vaunted left side of the infield--Young and Blalock--has seen better days, and they are counting on talented but star-crossed outfielders Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to give them a boost. The good news is that Ian Kinsler is a budding star at 2B and Jarrod Saltalamacchia projects as a Victor Martinez clone at C/1B. Avoiding 90 losses would be an achievement.

^{Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images}

National League East

1. New York Mets

Johan Santana pitching in huge Shea Stadium without a DH in the opposing lineup sounds like a recipe for 20-25 wins. Depth and quality in middle relief will allow Pedro Martinez to become a dominant 6 inning #2 starter (if manager Willie Randolph is smart), and John Maine is ready to emerge as a solid #3. Offensively, the top 4 is pretty damn good--Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran--but after that its seniors in decline (Delgado, Alou) and mediocrity (Ryan Church?! What's the skeleton that got Lastings Milledge traded?). Brian Schneider is an upgrade over 'roided Paul Loduca, but the Mets will win a weak division on the strength of their pitching and troika of stars (the top four minus Castillo).

2. Atlanta Braves

If they can stay healthy, they'll be tough. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are good table-setters and a decent keystone combo; then come a quartet of mashers in Chipper, Teixeria (in a contract year, no less), a bulked up Francoeur who actually started taking a pitch or two last year, and the young moose McCann. But can Chipper stay healthy enough for his usual 125-130 games, let alone, 162, at age 36? More to the point, how many quality starts does the impressive but aged starting rotation of Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine and Mike f'ing Hampton have left? The bullpen is a little shaky and Mark Kotsay is no Andruw in center. I'm guessing Chipper pulls his normal duty (and produces accordingly), Teixeria and Francoeur are monsters, and everyone but Hampton hangs tough in the rotation, with Jaar Jurrjens (acquired in the Renteria deal with Detroit) a plus at #5. They'll be in the wild card hunt before losing out to someone in the NL West.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

My oh my can they hit the ball, helped out by that bandbox home ballpark. No first baseman will knock in more runs than Ryan Howard; ditto Chase Utley at second, who enjoys the largest offensive advantage over his peers than players at any other position. MVP Jimmy Rollins is set for another 125 runs scored provided his hammies don't snap, and Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz are offensive upgrades at the bottom of the order in platoon with Jason Werth and Glen Dobbs. But what kind of pitching is there behind young ace Cole Hamels? Why would this be the year Brett Myers puts it all together? There's a much better chance this is the year Jamie Moyers finally isn't crafty enough to get people out varying speeds between 75-85 mph and spotting the corners. Kyle Kendrick? Adam Eaton? Does that sound like a playoff staff to you? And who is the genius who thinks Brad Lidge closing at Citizens Bank is a good idea?

4. Florida Marlins

The Marlins rebuild their roster for the same reason people pick scabs, because it hurts so good. The latest rip-it-raw swap brought them Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and will pay dividends (and save money) in about two years. By then, five-tool shortstop Hanley Ramirez and emerging star Jeremy Hermida will probably be on the trading block. Like Washington, Florida has no pitching to speak of besides closer Kevin Gregg, unless Miller develops in a hurry. Unlike Washington, there are a quartet of proven bats (Uggla, Willingham besides Hanley and Hermida), a breakout candidate in Mike Jacobs, and an intriguing comeback in the making with Jorge Cantu. Seventy-five wins would be an accomplishment.

5. Washington Nationals

Yes, there are some head cases that GM Jim Bowden has added to the ballclub, chief among them the wonderfully named duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Together with hot corner stud Ryan Zimmerman, they will determine whether the Nats are a team on the rise or whether a new stadium is the only excitement. The pitching staff is horrible, and without the spacious confines of RFK Stadium to protect them this season.

National League Central

1. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs will win a weak divison because of the depth of their starting rotation. Carloz Zambrano throws too many pitches but is a rubber-armed horse who can handle the work. Rich Hill and Ted Lilly are a pair of nasty lefties, and Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster are higher-class retreads than one usually finds in the hindquarters of #s 4 + 5. Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol all possess quality stuff but does Wood have the stamina, Howry enough left, or Marmol the maturity to be the closer, or will it a baton-passing committee. Offensively, you've got to figure Soriano and Lee will have better years, Ramirez is uber reliable, and the 30-year old Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will have Cubs fans gleefully spitting in each others' faces pronouncing his name. Center fielder Felix Pie and catcher Geovany Soto look like a bright future up the middle, but the double play duo of Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa could use a makeover.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

Last year's Brewers became one of my favorite teams. Portly Prince Fielder swatting home runs to left, right, and center yet finding his .618 slugging percentage only second best on the team thanks to the .634 posted by the Hebrew Hammer and reigning Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun. The impossibly lanky Corey Hart knocking 24 dingers and swiping 23 bases as a six-and-a-half-foot leadoff man. JJ Hardy hitting a ton early and a few feathers' worth down the stretch. Turnbow and Cordero tossing gas in the late innings. And yet the Brewers faded down the stretch and finished a titch above .500 at 83-79. The reason was defense: Fielder and Braun were as bad with the glove as they were accomplished with the bat. Despite the acquisition of Mike Cameron to vacuum up flies in center, swapping Braun and Bill Hall at outfield and third base isn't going to get it done, and ancient Jason Kendall is about as bad as roly-poly Johnny Estrada behind the plate. Cordero is gone as the closer, replaced by the flammable Eric Gagne, and the rotation relies too much on young ace-to-be Yovani Gallardo and injury-prone Ben Sheets. Nevertheless, Fielder and Braun will continue to pound the ball, Rickie Weeks is due for his injury-free breakout at second, and Hart will prove last year was no fluke. Once again they'll be loads of fun to watch and finish second behind the Cubs.

3. Cincinnati Reds

Another potent offense, especially if new manager Dusty Baker can change his spots and give heralded rooks like 1B Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce 500 at-bats apiece. Alas, Bruce starts the season in the minors and Votto may platoon with Scott Hatteberg, a walking anti-Moneyball argument. Brandon Phillips and Jeff Keppinger both have some sock and decent gloves in the middle infield (although the Reds' bandbox ballpark overrates Phillips' vaunted offense), and Adam Dunn is a walk-homer-or-strikeout suspense machine who churns up divots trying to play left field. Will Ken Griffey Jr. maintain his improbable semi-healthy ways? Can Bronson Arroyo rebound will Aaron Harang maintains to provide the Reds with a bona fide 1-2 punch in the rotation? Can the ex-Brewer Cordero, a notorious flyball pitcher, retain his sanity (and that of his manager) closing in the Great American Ballpark? And can Votto and Bruce get a chance to compete for Rookie of the Year? If more than half of these questions are answered yes, the Reds will leapfrog the Brewers for second and perhaps even bag a pennant if the Cubs falter.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

If they aren't the most futile franchise in professional sports over the past two decades, than other franchises are certainly losing quietly. But there's hope here (not that we haven't thought that before) in the trio of still-young arms in the starting rotation, led by lefty ace-in-the-making Tom Gorzelanny and buttressed by fireballing righty Ian Snell, with lefty Paul Maholm a decent #3 who won 10 games for a team that only trimphed 69 times last season. This is a make-or-break year for once promising lefty Zach Duke and Matt Morris probably doesn't have anything but guile left. But the bullpen is in good hands with Matt Capps and Damaso Marte--don't look now, but the Bucs have the second best pitching staff in the division. The lineup isn't fearsome by any means, especially if Jason Bay doesn't rebound from last year's pratfall and 1B Adam Laroche gets off to another miserable start. I think both will rebound, Freddie Sanchez will continue to rake and Ronnie Paulino will develop into a quality catcher. But the rest of the lineup is forgettable. Every journey begins with a single step. Pittsburgh's is fourth place.

5. Houston Astros

Their 4-7 hitters (Berkman/Carlos Lee/Tejada/Wiggington) sport classic beer-league physiques (I'm assuming an unjuiced Tejada flabs out a bit) and I'm anticipating that one or more of them will go with a major injury this season as a result. Roy Oswalt is a gritty sonavabitch on the mound and Jose Valverde gives them a closer unscarred by postseason failure, but overall the pieces don't add up here. Hunter Pence and catcher J.R. Towles are potentially exciting young players but the Astros are neither contending nor rebuilding. They're stuck.

6. St. Louis Cardinals

If Albert Pujols defies the odds and plays like Albert Pujols for an entire season, last place will be a foolish prediction for the Cards. But the deafening whispers are that Pujols still isn't right from last year's assortment of injuries, and if a dreadfully slow starting lineup with an injury-besotted pitching staff starts out 12-26 or something, Pujols may go under the knife in May. Then last place is inevitable.

National League West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Their lineup is studded with young talent, their pitching staff is loaded even if Randy Johnson can't come back, and together that should be enough to squeak by in the NL's toughest divsion. Leading off is Chris Young, who hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases as 23-year old rookie. At short is 25-year old Stephen Drew, who knocked in 60 runs despite hitting an anemic .238. At the bottom of the order is Justin Upton, age 20, an offensive stick of dynamite who many scouts openly tout as a future superstar. It's unreasonable to expect another monster year from vet Eric Byrnes, but corner infielders Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds should compensate by upping their power numbers this season. And then there's the pitching staff, led by arguably the game's best 1-2 rotation combo, sinkerballer Brandon Webb and last year's AL All Star game starter Dan Haren (acquired in a deal with Oakland). Micah Owings allowed a very respectable 1.28 WHIP last year (especially for a #3 starter) and lefty Doug Davis is an asset slotted at #4. Can the Big Unit loom large once again? If so, the Snakes could win 100 games.

2. Colorado Rockies

The Diamondbacks are best and the Giants are worst, but the middle three teams could finish in any order, and the best of the trio will earn the wild card. I'll go with the Rockies because they're not as young as people might imagine (and hence have more players in their prime) and because the fun generated by last year's tsunami surge to the World Series has probably been a great off-season motivator. Matt Holliday might be ready to take over for Vlad Guerrero as the best hitting outfielder in baseball, and Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are Vanilla personalities with Cherries Garcia rbi totals. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki deserved to be ROY instead of Ryan Braun by dint of grabbing the mantle of team leader and not letting a slow start at the plate deter fabulous defensive play throughout the season. Oh, and he came on enough to knock in 99 runs. This is a Rockies team that can hit on the road as well as at Coors (which isn't quite the high-scoring palace it used to be before they put they deadened the balls in the humidor). Nevertheless, I put them behind the Diamondbacks, and in dogfight with the Dodgers and Pads, because they have the division's fourth best pitching. Count me as dubious that closer Manny Corpas will post 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP again, or that manager Clint Hurdle can make another stretch run with everyone in the pen pitching lights out and two kids, Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez, duplicating last year's numbers. Put simply, the Rockies caught lightning in a bottle from August through October last year, and the hitting was more legit than the pitching. But Steve Francis had arguably the best season of any hurler in Rockies' history, and that was real. Righty Aaron Cook should stay healthy, and even if Corpas takes a step back, he'll be pretty good. Whoever wins the NL East or Central won't want to face this team in the playoffs.

3. San Diego Padres

The conventional wisdom is that the Padres are all-pitch, no-hit, but there is more spark in that lineup than the conventional thinkers realize. Playing half their games in the toughest park for hitters in all of baseball, shortstop Kahlil Greene swatted 27 homers and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff overcame a horrible start to launch another 18. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had 30. Greene is 28 this year, the other two 26; all figure to take another step before hitting their prime. And Josh Bard likewise is a promising hitter due for an upgrade in his rbi's. The problem is age in a spacious outfield, specifically erstwhile stars Jim Edmonds in center and Brian Giles in right, both now well past their apex. They will test the patience of current Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, the tall and talented Chris Young, and the gifted but frequently injured third starter, Randy Wolf. Greg Maddux is your everyday 347-game winner as #4 starter, and Justin Germano rounds out a deep rotation pitching in very friendly confines at Petco. In the bullpen, the abiding question is whether Trevor Hoffman's late season meltdown finally marks the beginning of the end of his Hall of Fame career. If so, superb setup men Cla Meredith and Heath Bell have to prove one of them can take it to the next level.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

I was tempted to put the Dodgers second out of affection for new skipper Joe Torre, freed from the once and future Bronx Zoo at Yankee Stadium. But despite a bevy of promising youngsters--especially 1b James Loney, Of Matt Kemp and 3B Andy Laroche--and the league's best catcher in 25-year old Russell Martin, LA is still a year or two away from truly blossoming. I mean, this is a team whose home run leader was Jeff Kent, who hit 20--half his age. Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal are go-go speedsters at the top of the order, but giving fat contracts to a couple of poor man's Maury Wills isn't the way to win in 2008. Free agent signee Andrux Jones will help at both the plate and in the field--expect a big bounceback from his .222/26/94 disappointment. And the Big Blue has the kind of deep and talented bullpen that Torre craved and never had his final years in New York, what with closer Takashi Saito and lefty-righty setup men Joe Beimel and Big Jonathan Broxton. Like the lineup, the rotation has depth and talent but no drop-dead superstar. The Dodgers shape up to be the best 4th place team in baseball.

5. San Francisco Giants

Speaking of all-pitch, no-hit, the post-Bonds Giants have the worst batting order in all of baseball, the decrepit keystone combo of Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel, has-beens like Rich Aurilia and Randy Winn, and either Aaron Rowand or Bengie Molina batting cleanup. But the pitching is rock solid, with budding star Tim Lincecum and tough-luck kid Matt Cain (7-16 despite a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP) threatening to supplant big bucks Barry Zito as the ace. Make no mistake, however: This is a baseball team going nowhere fast, stuck in purgatory as their karmic payback for enabling Bonds.

^{Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)}

Game #70, Road Game #34: Minnesota 86, Houston 97

Season Record: 18-52

1. Stubborn Smallball

Let the record show that Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes tied for the "best" plus/margin (-4) among the 9 Wolves who played in tonight's 11-point loss to Houston, that Luis Scola had the Rockets' only minus at -1 and that Dikembe Mutombo was second-worst among the Houston's starters at plus +3. Despite all these numbers, you can't convince me that the Wolves were better off playing smallball versus this Houston team. They were soundly beaten on the boards, 58-38, lost the points in the paint battle by double-digits (sorry, can't find the numbers for it) and also yielded more second-chance points due mostly to the plethora of Rockets putbacks by the bigs.

The Rockets' front line of Mutombo/Scola/Shane Battier finished with 14 offensive rebounds; the Wolves front trio of Jefferson/Gomes/Kirk Snyder had 19 defensive rebounds--a weak plus +5 rebound margin cleaning their defensive glass. And don't look to the backcourt for bailouts, because these Rockets battle and box out. Randy Foye and Marko Jaric totaled 3 rebounds *combined" while Tracy McGrady had 11 on his own.

It would have been nice to see Chris Richard or Michael Doleac matched up with Mutombo instead of Jefferson, who shot 9-21 FG and was appropriately pissed that he wasn't getting enough touches at times in the second half. As much as I love Ryan Gomes, I'd much rather see Jefferson scrapping for rebounds against Scola, the hands-down Rookie of the Year (it's not close) and one leather-tough hombre in the paint, who snagged a career-high 18 boards going against Gomes. Put Gomes out on his stylistic mentor, Battier, who had a rotten game on paper--3-12 FG, 1-7 3pt, 5 turnovers--and yet played such superb help defense against Jefferson and in deterring penetration and in rotating over that you understand how a team coached by Rick Adelman--a great offensive coach--is doing such a good job limiting points.

A legit center beside Jefferson and Gomes would kick Kirk Snyder back to the backcourt to split minutes with Marko Jaric guarding McGrady who played like he was in significant pain for most of the night (he was, he has a sprained shoulder and wasn't even expected to play) but rose to the occasion at crunchtime. More on that in a minute. The point is, Snyder and Jaric and McCants in the backcourt along with Randy Foye. And if you really are trying to win the game, forget about the confidence-depleted, late-season thin man Corey Brewer trying to stop T-Mac, who almost literally shrugged him off a couple of times going up for jumpers. Jaric, who did such a beautiful job hounding McGrady during the nail-biter the teams played at Target Center, was a little less effective tonight, but probably a titch better than Snyder.

Bottom line, if Mutombo insists on guarding Jefferson, force Battier to run around with Gomes on the perimeter, spot up Doleac for little step-out pops against Scola, or have Chris Richard sealing Scola off the boards.

It probably wouldn't matter. In Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry, the Rockets have a couple more sweat-equity 'tweeners coming off the bench who are better than Richard and Chris Smith (who combined for 2-5 FG and just 2 rebounds in more than 25 minutes of collective action). The string of patsies are temporarily over. You can see how this ballclub could afford to let Snyder languish on the pine without so much as a second or third look.

Speaking of which...

2. The Uneven Adventures of Kirk Snyder

The guy with the Mr. Potato Head nose had a sparkling, maybe even thrilling, first quarter. It was the hackneyed story of the neglected dude traded away and now come to wreak vengeance and expose the traitor traders for their blind stupidity. Even with Battier on him (although Battier wasn't necessarily making him the top priority), Snyder began by getting to the rim--his shots were layups, dunks, putbacks, and thus some free throws to boot. But better yet, he freelanced from penetration and maintained that drive and kick game he had flashed against the hapless Knicks last time out, doling dimes to Gomes, Jefferson, Foye and Gomes again to finish the tightly contested (23-24) first quarter with a triple double flirtation: 7 points, 4 rebounds (half the team's total), and 4 assists (out of the team's 7).

Alas, the thing Snyder had the most of after that whirlwind first period was turnovers--5 of them, to total six miscues for the game. He also added a mere 5 points, two rebounds and two assists in the final three quarters (in which he played 18:13 to Brewer's 17:47 after going all 12 minutes of the first) to finish with a respectable line, if not exactly the triumphant payback he'd hoped. But the numbers aren't usually the story anyway with Snyder. He seems to play with a little bit of mean streak, and I vacillate between liking and frowning at that side of his makeup. On the one hand he makes the hustle plays that we all want to pin gold stars on Brewer for accomplishing. In the first half tonight, he had enough juice and foresight to hightail after Marko Jaric after Jaric had made a steal and subsequently blown the contested layup (big surprise, eh?), slamming home Jaric's too-strong finish. Conversely, there was a play during Snyder's second half turnover spree where, after the faulty pass, he flew down the floor trailing a Rockets' 3-on-1 drill, and it took two nifty bits of execution--a feed back from T-Mac under the hoop to a driving Scola, who double pumped under Snyder's flying block attempt to lay it in--to prevent him from making a glorious recovery.

Coach Wittman clearly likes Snyder's game, but also knows the downsides. The other day he likened Snyder to McCants, in that both can do stupid things due to overweening aggression, but since the vice and virtue of it are so close together, you have to accept the whole package. And after the Wolves had failed to score for about two and a half minutes early in the third period, we saw the vice and virtue collide as one--Snyder took the ball right up the gut and challenged Mutombo with an audacious slam-dunk attempt. The shot was missed--Snyder left his feet just inside the foul line--but he drew the foul on Mutombo even as he was driving his forearm into Mutombo's jaw.

Maybe everything that happened after that looked more soap operatic than it was--it's hard to know watching on television. But the 41-year old African, who had been honored at halftime for his amazing humanitarian work building hospitals in his native Congo and other countries, didn't take kindly to the shot in the kisser and began jawing at Snyder from his spot in the lane as Snyder shot the free throws. And right there, Snyder went back to being the contemptible scrub, called out by the distinguished vet, in the eyes of his former teammates. He missed the second free throw and began to get picked on--McGrady and Battier both went at him when he was playing D, and at the other end, his passes were getting picked off more frequently. But whether or not there was a little extra emotion out there, it's unimpeachable that Snyder already has delivered more dividends--and the promise of more still--than the man for whom he was traded, the immature Gerald Green. But it is also true that, unlike the Wolves, Houston has a lot of guard-dog athletes that made Snyder reasonably redundant.

3. A Few More Quick Things

Randy Foye played his worst game in quite awhile and simply seemed mentally out of sorts the entire contest. He chucked his first ill-advised jumper 14 seconds into the game, and, aside from a really pretty reverse back to either Gomes or Jaric in which he dribbled left and then spun and tossed it back to right elbow, he had the sort of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey shot selection reminiscent of Troy Hudson, both in shooting quickly on the shot clock, turning down some good looks, and taking a heat check after one basket (and that one was a lucky bounce that went way up and fell through the hole). He finished 2-8 FG, with 4 assists and 5 turnovers and but one rebound, far below his recent averages. No, this is not a call for Foye to be labelled a bust at the point--he had a bad game. Just as I needed two or three good games to bump me off the notion that Foye is overmatched running an offense, I'll need this lack of court instincts reprised a couple or three more games before the serious doubts creep back in.

Rashad McCants likewise had a mostly off-kilter evening, until he finally rediscovered his stroke early in the 4th quarter, exploding for 7 points in the first 2:27 of the period to cut a 60-69 deficit to 70-72 with 9:33 to play. The comeback was doomed when Shaddy chose to try and make incidental contact into a whistle, awkwardly chucking a long airball, which Houston converted into a McGrady jumper on the next possession. Once again we have a situation where McCants rallies the ballclub partway back. He has a knack for turning potential blowouts into more engaging defeats--and no, that's not a compliment. It is always fun to watch him stroke the long jumper or negotiate the thicket on a drive to the hoop--he leads the team is visually pleasing points by a huge margin--but this 1-7 FG through 3 followed by 5-8 FG in the fourth is something we've seen before. What we haven't seen, aside from a very early win over Sacramento, are that glittering stroke and those creative treks to the rim spelling the clearcut difference between a victory and a defeat.

Only caught a little of the Phoenix-Celts game, but what a different enviroment for Kevin Garnett. Like everyone else, he abused Amare Stoudamire's matador D and banged in 30 points, but can anyone imagine him playing more than 30 minutes without a single defensive rebound while here in Minnesota? Or that his team would win by 20 over one of the supposedly elite NBA teams?

The San Antonio tilt is not televised except for League Pass and I'll be out of town on another assignment during the Sunday home game against Utah. I'll throw up an open thread for Sunday evening for those who want to chime in.

^{AP Photo by A.J. Olmscheid}

Game #68, Road Game #33: Minnesota 113, Indiana 124

Game #69, Home Game #36: New York 93, Minnesota 114

Season Record: 18-51

1. Illusions of Mediocrity

Let's start with the good news. Over the last five or six weeks, Timberwolves coach Randy Wittman has challenged the team's three most prominent building blocks to upgrade their respective games in specific ways. For Al Jefferson, it has been better defense; for Randy Foye, more overt point-guard related behavior; for Rashad McCants, less holding of the ball and more dish or penetration. And all three have made tangible progress in these areas, with the sort of slow, steady improvement that creates optimism about the future. Much more than in the previous three seasons, the Timberwolves do indeed look like they are putting specific pieces in place and rebuilding the right way--from the ground up.

But here's the nasty chaser: Despite its 13-17 record over the past two months, and 8-10 mark since Foye claimed the point guard slot in the starting lineup, the Wolves continue to be routinely trounced when playing quality ballclubs. Over the past 30, their record is 9-5 against sub-.500 teams, 1-0 against the .500 Philadelphia 76ers, and 3-12 versus teams that have won more than they've lost. In the 18 since Foye took the point guard reins, those figures are 6-3 versus sub.500, 1-0 against Philly, and 1-7 against over-.500 ballclubs.

This week offered a pretty decent view of whether the Wolves could achieve mediocrity. They faced four sub-.500 opponents. Three of them are absolutely horrible ballclubs at the present time: A Clippers team with Chris Kamen out, Al Thornton dinged, and Sam Cassell released (not to mention Elton Brand, shelved for the season with an injury); a Memphis team that unloaded Pau Gasol for nickels on the dollar; and a wretched Knicks outfit that is destined to produce at least two or three best-selling accounts of the abject stupidity, mendacity and incompetence of their dysfunction. Almost by default, then, the gut check game for the Wolves this past week came on the road against an Indiana Pacers team still improbably in the hunt for an Eastern Conference playoff spot despite what at the time was a record of 27-41.

To Minnesota's credit, the club took care of business against the weakest trio of patsies. This is not to be discounted: I think it's fair to say that two months ago, the mark versus these same Clips/Grizz/Knicks would have been at best 2-1 and probably 1-2 (there is probably no point in their season when they couldn't have beaten these professional imposters known as the Knicks). But the loss to Indiana is just as meaningful a gauge of the apparently limited ceiling of this club. The Pacers play horrible defense, and with Jermaine O'Neal out, the don't have a reliable low-post threat. Yet they were able to blitz the Wolves for 66 points in the first half, largely because Minnesota's "small" lineup was still too slow for the rapid ball movement that usually resulted in made treys--the Pacers racked up 16 assists (6 by backup point guard Travis Diener, who was plus +18 in 15:20) and Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy nailed 7-8 from beyond the arc. All this in one half.

Meanwhile, the ever-underrated Jeff Foster and the relatively tall lineup that enabled Indiana to bring size to the double-teams frustrated Al Jefferson into just 5 points. The other Wolves didn't necessarily pick up the slack. although a stupid foul in the final seconds of the half enabled Foye to hit three FTs and finish with 12 at intermission. Jefferson, Foye and McCants were a combined 5-20 FG. The Wolves were down 17 at the break, and, despite some gunner heroics from McCants in the second half, were doomed by Jefferson's foul trouble and the ongoing inability to the Pacers perimeter game.

Aside from building a little confidence, the Knicks game was a waste of time. There hasn't been a worse performance by a ballclub thus far this season than what the Knicks showed at Target Center Saturday night--no mean feat when you consider the Wolves are half of every matchup there. All the hullaballoo about Jefferson's improved defense looked silly when David Lee and Malik Rose took turns abusing him down low. (After blocking four shots and taking a charge in the first half of the Pacer game, Jefferson played more like the guy leery of picking up cheap fouls a la the second half in Indiana.) But it didn't matter that Lee and Rose were a combined 14-19 FG (led by Lee's perfect 6 for 6), because "point guard" Jamal Crawford was busy chucking up 19 field goal attempts all by his lonesome and making only 6.

Jeffeson's weak D was not the only example of how the three and a half quarters of garbage time that comprised the Knicks game allowed the Wolves to engage in half-assed habits without penalty. Take Shaddy McCants's Jekyll-and-Hyde halves versus Indiana and New York. On Friday, McCants was 0-5 FG in the first half, and defended poorly as well. But his saving grace was ball movement, with 4 assists, including a gorgeous bounce pass to Chris Richard, in just 8:48 of action. Then, in the second half, McCants went off for 8-12 FG, including a couple of unbelievable shots over the Pacers' tall perimeter pressure. After he nailed a pair of treys to bring the Wolves from 17 down to 82-93 after three, Indiana ratcheted up the coverage, especially when Jefferson was sidelined with foul trouble. McCants squeezed off two Js he had no business releasing, let alone converting, as he went up in perimeter traffic: the first a step back two-pointer to make it 90-103 with 7 minutes-plus to play and the other a prayer-bomb for three to pretty-up the margin to 106-120 with about two minutes to play.

This is the rub with McCants, that he gets hot when it doesn't matter. While that may be so thus far, particularly compared to Jefferson and Foye, there is no denying his passing and overall teamwork have taken a quantum leap forward lately, which is why his second half of the Knicks game was so negatively funky. After some shooting practice against New York's nonexistent defense--he shot 9-13 FG, giving him 41 points in the four quarters comprised by the Indy second half and the New York first half--he clanked for 1-8 FG in the second half, making him 1-13 FG in the wrap-around halves to that 41-point middle. The difference yesterday was, zero assists in 16:46 of the second half. Asked to explain the difference between the two Knicks halves, Wittman replied that "he settled more. He attacked in the first half, and got to the free throw line for those 15-foot, 18-foot shots. In the second half it was more threes." And less vision. Oh well, at least he wasn't holding the ball--just chucking it.

To return to square one from our wayward path on this point, the Wolves now face six straight opponents with over-.500 records. By the lights of even their recent "surge" (and yes, the word match is intentional), they figure to win but one of these games, going into the final 7 with 19 victories. The draft pick isn't going to the Clips, in other words, but karmic intervention will be necessary (or very shrewd talent evaluation) to land a collegiate or foreign-born stud.

2. What's Needed

Different folks have different ideas about the abiding priority for this club, in part because there is clearly more than one glaring need. I maintain that it is a defensive-oriented center who can step out and hit a midrange jumper on occasion. And no, I don't mean Craig Smith, who has upped his quotient of 8-to-15 footers in response to advice from the team's braintrust on how to be a better complement to Jefferson on the front line. I mean a center, who can snuff David Lee when he gets past Jefferson on the baseline, and slide over to cover when Big Al is inevitably too slow returning from the show on the pick and roll. Is it a coincidence that as Jefferson's blocks and defensive focus has gone up that his scoring has dipped some? Don't know, and don't want him to get a pass at the defensive end, but when someone is as gifted at putting the ball in the hole from the paint as Jefferson is, you want to ride that horse as much as possible. A guy like Marcus Camby would be ideal--tremendous on-ball and help defender who mostly shoots midrange jumpers--but since Cambys don't grow on trees, any large, stanuch defender who can keep defenses even a little honest will do nicely.

Personally, my second priority would be an uber-athletic small forward. I resist a strong internal pull for lanky, defensive-oriented point guard--a Rondo type would really be good--because Randy Foye has shown enough at the point in recent weeks to see if he can continue to develop. Make no mistake: Foye at the point is a vital part of the Wolves' foundation in that if it doesn't work out, the rebuilding scheme could easily come tumbling down. If Foye is ensconced at the point, Brewer and Gomes can swing from 2-3 and 3-4 respectively without squeezing McCants out of the picture because you need to play Foye more as a combo 2. If Foye can't hack it serving a majority of his minutes at the point, McCants is more redundant, and Brewer, Gomes and Jefferson must contend with more smallball or fall by the wayside. A stud small forward, on the other hand, makes Gomes a valuable 7th man at both forward slots and lets Brewer defer shots and score more in transition running the floor with Foye and the new guy.

Teams don't do well in the playoffs going 6-10 and 6-7 in the frontcourt. And they don't do well without someone who can both pounce in transition and run the half-court with aplomb in the backcourt. That's why, even during their recent hot streak, the Wolves are losing at least 5 out of 6 to over-.500 opponents.

3. Quick Hits

Jefferson's family was here for the Knicks' game (and presumably for Easter). I assumed the guy with the very prominent, Al Jeffersonian brow had to be his biological father, but a recent City Pages feature said his father had died. In any case, this guy was impassive; whereas the three females in the group about a half-dozen rows up behind the Wolves' bench boisterously clapped and hollared for everything pro-Jefferson and -Timberwolves, the father-figure clapped only when Jefferson dished for an assist. And wouldn't you know it, Big Al set his career high with a half-dozen of those dimes versus the Knicks.

One thing about Gomes at the 4, he can step out on a big and hit that midrange, and then when the guy comes out to greet him, can put the ball on the floor and create. As Gomes' confidence in his offense increases, we are seeing more and more of that. Despite his 8 rebounds to go with his game-high 26 points yesterday, however, Gomes is less impressive defending the paint, especially on-ball defense.

Tough times for the Florida duo. I've been on the Chris Richard bandwagon all season, but it is hard to ignore his delayed reaction when a big flashes into the paint on him. He's a piece of oak in the low block--precious few backing him down are able to sneak through, and must resort to the baby hook or something--but slow to react to good perimeter passing. But Brewer is the real disappointment lately. After displaying pretty savvy shot selection all season, he seems determined not to let his accuracy woes affect him--only to have it affect him by his pulling the trigger too soon (and thus way too foolishly) on the shot clock. His clanking was a significant factor in the snuffed comeback against the Pacers and he hasn't made more than a third of his shots in four straight games. Worst of all, Kirk Snyder pushing ahead of him in the rotation seems to have affected his Flying Wallendas defensive persona.

By contrast, Snyder is playing with great confidence and carving out a spot for himself on somebody's roster next season. An unrestricted free agent in less than 4 weeks, it will be curious to see if he can bag anything more than the $1 M exemption from anyone looking for a relatively hard-nosed 24-year old with an intriguing upside. Snyder barged into the rotation by becoming a hairshirt on Kevin Durant in the February Seattle game. But lately he's impressed with his ability to get to the rim (and/or the free throw line) via dribble penetration, and his throttle-down mindset when he snags a rebound on the defensive end. He could be a sleeper-steal in the trade for the already cut Gerald Green, or a fleeting footnote in Wolves history.