The Rake Magazine

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Celtics (1st Playoff seed)

Why: Three yeoman stars all accoustomed to carrying the load. A pair of role starters, Perkins and Rondo, who are better than advertised. Glue guys for points (House) and defense (Posey) off the bench.

Worries: Mediocre coach, Ray Allen's ankles.

Overrated: The plus-30 ages of the troika of stars.

Underrated: The amount of fun Celtic fans are going to have watching three long-suffering stars and a pair burgeoning young talents come together.

Wild Card: Can Tony Allen back up Rondo at the point?

2. Toronto Raptors (6)

Why: Beneath the radar synergy of unsung United Nations crew. Great depth. Capable coach still learning and improving.

Worries: Flash in the pan overachievers leads to mediocrity for one star team, league figures out tendency of newfangled Euros.

Overrated: Nothing. How Canadian.

Underrated: Bosh's consistency, Calderon's grit as backup point guard.

Wild card: Bargnani--breakout season or just steady improvement?

3. New Jersey Nets (7)

Why: Aging stars, lopsided roster, not enough talent in the paint. Sense time has passed before it ever really arrived.

Worries: Is a healthy Krstic a zero-sum game versus last year's Mikki Moore surprise? Jefferson's post-injury hops, Carter's post-contract attitude.

Overrated: Vince Carter, tin plated golden boy.

Underrated: Kidd's 8.2 rebounds per game.

Wild Card: Jamaal Magloire, in the perfect situation to prove he's not washed up.

4. New York Knicks (13)

Why: The roster is still mashed potatoes, pickles and ice cream. From Dolan through Isiah down to Nate Robinson, too much bullshit, not enough glue.

Worries: Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph? Are you shitting me? Jamal Crawford and Stefon Marbury? Who's the level-headed guy, Quinton Richardson?

Underrated: David Lee, the patience of Knicks fans.

Overrated: Marbury's selfishness, Robinson's long term value.

Wild Card: How long can Curry and Randolph peacefully, if not productively, co-exist?

5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)

Why: Way too inexperienced, with not enough talent.

Worries: Is Iguodala merely a poor man's Iverson in more ways than one, dominating the ball while nobody else develops?

Overrated: The once stellar defense of Samuel Dalembert, the endurance of Reggie Evans playing starter's minutes.

Underrated: Kyle Korver, more than just a great gunner.

Wild Card: Louis Williams eventually taking over for Andre Miller at the point; the potential breakout of Willie Green.

Central Division

1. Chicago Bulls (2)

Why: Great young nucleus gels another year, both sides know what to expect in the Big Ben situation.

Worries: Ben Gordon doesn't cede to Luol Deng in pecking order; Noah flops behind Wallace; Skiles wears out welcome in year five, Nocioni's mental makeup, post playoff collapse.

Overrated: Wallace's defense as senior citizen, without 'Sheed.

Underrated: Hinrich's jumper, Sefolosha's defense.

Wild Card: Ty Thomas, breakout or yo yo round two?

2. Detroit Pistons (3)

Why: Flip Saunders is a regular season wizard; Jason Maxiell is ready for prime time, Billups on a mission.

Worries: Age; McDyess or foul-prone 'Sheed in the pivot; Tayshaun Prince's mental makeup, post playoff bricklaying; the tread of Rip Hamilton's tires.

Overrated: Billups, who is very good but not great.

Underrated: Hamilton's defense, Wallace's defense, new pickup Jarvis Hayes, who shouldn't be buried on the bench.

Wild Card: A healthy McDyess for an entire season

3. Cleveland Cavs (5)

Why: No more ambushes, a dreadful offense, contract snits with Varejao and Pavlovik, versus King James being another year better.

Worries: Z's motor, Hughes's fragility, LeBron's loyalty.

Overrated: Drew Gooden

Underrated: Coach Mike Brown

Wild Card: Daniel Gibson

4. Milwaukee Bucks (9)

Why: Weird team with no identity, wasted two years with hapless Terry Stotts. Bogut and Villanueva could boom or bust; ditto Yi who won't boom for at least a year or two.

Worries: Villanueva's injuries, Michael Redd's horrible horrible defense, having to play Yi before he's ready to keep him happy.

Overrated: Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons--mediocre, not good.

Underrated: Point guard Mo Williams; worth every penny of that fat deal.

Wild Card: Bogut and Williams seizing the reins, Redd letting them.

5. Indiana Pacers (14)

Why: Tinsley and O'Neal already over the hill; the grotesque Golden State trade; a miniaturized Marquis Daniels.

Worries: A slew of bad contracts makes rebuilding impossible; O'Neal demands trade; Tinsley packs it in; free fall accelerates.

Overrated: Mike Dunleavy's potential.

Underrated: Jeff Foster's grit and savvy.

Wild Card: Danny Granger as this year's Kevin Martin.

Southeast Division

1. Washington Wizards (4)

Why: Gilbert Arenas, a kinder, gentler, funnier Kobe. An underrated bench. Better defense led by DeShawn Steverson.

Worries: Soft in the paint without Etan Thomas. Arenas emulates the bad Kobe, Jamison starts his decline.

Overrated: Jamison's glue-guy capability.

Underrated: Antonio Daniels and Andray Blatche off the bench.

Wild Cards: The health of Darius Songalia; the emergence of rook Nick Young.

2. Miami Heat (8)

Why: Too much throttle from Pat Riley, not enough gas on the roster. Shaq old; Wade dinged.

Worries: Shaq old; Wade dinged, Ricky Davis and Jason Williams playing for new contracts.

Overrated: Pat Riley with a team of average talent.

Underrated: The pounding Shaq had endured.

Wild Card: Wade sucks it up, reprises Superman show down the stretch.

3. Orlando Magic (10)

Why: One reason: Dwight Howard. Rashard Lewis is overpaid and a slight push over departed Grant Hill. Everyone in the starting lineup besides Howard is an outside shooter. He'll be the biggest one man team this side of Cleveland.

Worries: Lewis presses to justify ridiculous contract; JJ Redick continues to be fool's gold.

Overrated: The impact of Lewis.

Underrated: New coach Stan Gundy; hustling glue guy Trevor Azia.

Wild Card: Redic and Hedo Turkoglu stretching defenses away from Howard and Lewis.

4. Charlotte Bobcats (11)

Why: Team on rise, especially backcourt of Felton and J-Rich. Injuries to May and Morrison are costly.

Worries: Crushed in paint as Okafor hits ceiling and Brezec too slow; Felton's D fades; Richardson's scoring disrupts chemistry.

Overrated: Okafor's post presence.

Underrated: Felton's distribution at the point.

Wild Card: New coach Sam Vincent.

5. Atlanta Hawks (12)

Why: Loads of potential could yield 20 or 40 wins. Pruning roster for quality vet or two would help.

Worries: Nobody sorts a pecking order; bickering, immaturity and indecision reign.

Overrated: Josh Smith, not as good as his numbers.

Underrated: Joe Johnson and Al Horford; a nice place to start.

Wild Card: Lightning strikes and winning becomes contagious. Marvin Williams finally lives up to the hype.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division

1. Dallas Mavericks (3)

Why: Nothing to prove in the regular season will affect their record some, but Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones give them depth with perimeter defense that an aging Jason Terry can't provide in the postseason. Diop over the injured Dampier right from the jump is another playoff prep bonus. Ditto the acquisition of banger Brandon Bass.

Worries: Nowitzki fails the do-or-die leadership test a third straight time; the aging of Stack and Terry; the recovery of Dampier from shoulder surgery.

Overrated: Nowitzki's "improvement" the last two years.

Underrated: Stackhouse's ability to get to the line.

Wild Card: Their blood pressure in the postseason. From Cuban to Avery to Dirk and on down, they are wound pretty tight for a team that got undressed by an 8 seed last season.

San Antonio Spurs (4)

Why: Another team that will bide its time. Oberto is now settled in the pivot; Ginobili is the NBA's premiere sidekick; Duncan the best big man; Parker should keep improving, especially on defense.

Worries: A lot of rugged minutes begin wearing down Bowen; Duncan gets hurt; the jinx of even-numbered playoff years.

Overrated: Their bench; thinner than the Celtics'

Underrated: Gregg Popovich, the best in the game today.

Wild Card: Age. This is an old team that plays smashmouth defense deep into every season.

3. New Orleans Hornets (6)

Why: The classic leap forward after the step back. Chandler and West are beasts in the paint, Paul excels at the drive and kick to Peja and MoPete. Bobby Jackson, Rasual Butler, Hilton Armstrong and the rook Julian Wright are nice bench pieces.

Worries: Peja's health, Jackson's wear and tear.

Overrated: Peja's importance.

Underrated: Tyson Chandler, coach Byron Scott.

Wild Card: How much will, or can, New Orleans embrace this emerging team?

4. Houston Rockets (7)

Why: For better or worse, Yao, T-Mac and now hot Argentinian rookie power forward Luis Scola.

Worries: A team seemingly built for defense (Yao, Battier) couldn't win for Van Gundy and is a mismatch for new coach Rick Adelman; Rafel Alston is not a championship point guard.

Overrated: Yao and T-Mac--dynamic duo with zip playoff series wins.

Underrated: Ever-ready battery Chuck Hayes at power forward; sharpshooter Luther Head off the bench.

Wild Cards: Scola obviously, who might be the galvanizing third star piece or a notorious bust. And Adelman: Will he really plant Yao and Mutumbo in the high post?

5. Memphis Grizzlies (11)

Why: They've got a clue, are stockpiling talent, would be a playoff team in the East. Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick are going to be better, Juan Carlos Navarro is a Spur-like foreign gem. Mike Miller will flourish in new coach Iavaroni's up-and-down game.

Worries: The collective basketball IQs of Stromile Swift and Darko Milicic beside Pau Gausol at center; the readiness of rook Mike Conley or pro-soph Kyle Lowry to supplant Stoudamire at the point.

Overrated: Darko's upside.

Underrated: Mike Miller

Wild Cards: Navarro, Conley/Lowry.

Pacific Division

1. Phoenix Suns (2)

Why: The way they play is too much fun for distractions about Marion's contract and trade demands. Acquiring Grant Hill will get Nash some rest. The franchise knows this year is their best, probably last, shot at a ring with this crew.

Worries: Amare, Nash, Hill--How many crucial injury risks can they dodge? Who replaces Kurt Thomas: Brian Skinner? Sean Marks?

Overrated: Amare's post-microfracture strength and quickness.

Underrated: Boris Diaw, who needs to be worked back into the mix.

Wild Card: Hill, who might be the final ingredient or remain an injury-prone tease.

2. Golden State (9)

Why: Because the frothy fun of the playoffs isn't there in mid-winter. Relying on Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson is an oxymoron.

Worries: Davis's body, Jackson's head; the sustainability of Monta Ellis and Matt Barnes after their breakout years; defending the paint.

Overrated: NellyBall

Underrated: Mickael Pietrus, the upside of Andris Biedrins.

Wild Card: The whole team is a wild card, but let's say Baron, who could be a top-10 MVP candidate or a gimpy, glorified gunner.

3. Los Angeles Lakers (10) w/Kobe

Why: Bickering principals accustomed to championships. Some strong talent but a psychological mess.

Worries: Ah, the distraction of whether or not to trade Kobe; Phil Jackson's stale Zen; Odom's health; Bynum's confidence.

Overrated: Kobe Bryant as "the best player in the game."

Underrated: Luke Walton, Bynum.

Wild Card: The volatile Kobe deciding to be a team player out of spite.

4. Los Angeles Clippers (14)

Why: Injuries to Brand and Livingstone are deadly, leaving Maggette, Cassell and Mobley to "sort it out."

Worries: A team ripe for implosion does just that; Mike Dunleavy becoming the second coach to be choked by a player in NBA history.

Overrated: Al Thornton as trendy ROY; Tim Thomas.

Underrated: Ruben Patterson, a bad actor off the court but fabulous glue and dirty work on it.

Wild Cards: Chris Kamen rediscovering his game; Brevin Knight allowed to be the balm in the backcourt.

5. Sacramento Kings (15)

Why: Bibby and Artest are two very different kinds of toxins. Shareef and Brad Miller are toast, Kevin Martin is all stats, and Reggie Theus is the coach? Potentially the most tragicomical squad in the league; when do they sign Flava Flav?

Worries: Being barred from moving to Vegas.

Overrated: Bibby, Martin, the size of Mikki Moore's contract.

Underrated: Quiet pro Kenny Thomas.

Wild Card: Insert Artest joke here.

Northwest Division

1. Denver Nuggets (1)

Why: Because unlike the other contenders, the regular season matters. Melo, AI and Camby rival the troika in Boston and San Antonio; Nene, Najera, Kleiza, Stephen Hunter and maybe K-Mart can bring the beef. Chucky Atkins as an upgrade over Steve Blake at the point.

Worries: Camby's health; the warranty on coach George Karl's effectiveness; regulating the glory of AI.

Overrated: JR Smith, who's not worth the trouble.

Underrated: Camby, a genuine game-changer when healthy; Linas Kleiza, who needs some burn.

Wild Card: Kenyon Martin, whose return to form would make the Nugs a legit co-favorite with San Antonio in the postseason.

2. Utah Jazz (5)

Why: Deron Williams another year closer to being league's best point guard; Boozer/Okur matchup quandary; Sloan a salty master with a couple years left; Millsap, Ronnie Brewer and rook Almond emerge as key pieces for depth.

Worries: Kirilenko/Sloan contretemps continues to bring out the worst in both of them; Okur stops complementing his treys with inside energy; sans Derek Fisher, the dropoff from D-Ron is precipitous at the point.

Overrated: Okur and Boozer, who need the other to be effective.

Underrated: Millsap, a real beast in the making.

Wild Card: Almond's ability to be a better Gordan Giricek.

3. Portland Trailblazers (8)

Why: The long, slow rebuilding comes to fruition even without Oden. Aldridge and Roy are studs in the making, Przy an ideal complementary shotblocker down low; Webster and Outlaw a pair of dynamic swingmen; Steve Blake and Channing Frye good glue. And Zach Randolph is gone.

Worries: Jarrett Jack isn't the answer at the point, and Blake and rook Taurean Green can't pick up the slack. Outlaw and Webster still aren't ready.

Overrated: The impact of Oden's injury, especially if Przybilla can stay healthy.

Underrated: Nate McMillan's influence, especially with Randolph and Darius Miles out of the picture.

Wild Card: Roy's ability to be the de facto point guard.

4. Seattle Supersonics (12)

Why: The best help in the draft from Durant and Jeff Green; and a nice piece with Delonte West at combo guard, but the front line is too weak in the brutal Western Conference.

Worries: Durant gets beaten up and loses confidence; Wilcox and Collison remain the best bets down low as the three bigs from previous drafts continue to flounder. Coach PJ Carlisimo can't find the right balance of tough and tender with the ghost of Spree in his closet.

Overrated: The effectivenes of Damien Wilkins' hustle; the promise of Robert Swift; the future of Luke Ridnour.

Underrated: Glue guy Kurt Thomas; the immediate impact of Green, who will outperform Durant in overall value this season.

Wild Card: Durant really being ready for immediate stardom.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (13)

Why: Problems at the point; culling the plethora of 'tweeners; the emergence of Jefferson, McCants, Gomes and eventually Brewer as building blocks.

Worries: Foye's knee; Gomes's departure next year, followed by Jefferson's down the road; Wittman overmatched by the rebuilding job; Brewer can't shoot well enough to compel a single-team.

Overrated: Gerald Green's future; Telfair's positive preseason; Craig Smith's upside.

Underrated: Theo Ratliff's (short term) impact; the potential team D of Theo/Jefferson/Gomes/McCants/Foye with Brewer off the bench.

Wild Card: Foye at the point; Antoine Walker.

Courtesy of Wolves stat guru Paul Swanson, here are the plus/minus total for the Wolves this exhibition season.

2007-08 Minnesota Timberwolves
Preseason Plus/Minus Report (Final)
Raw Minutes Team Opp Minutes Team Opp Net
Player Plus/Minus On Floor Pts/48 Pts/48 On Bench Pts/48 Pts/48 Plus/Minus
Telfair, Sebastian +25 74.3 101.4 85.2 319.7 88.4 97.9 +25.6
Ratliff, Theo +17 102.4 102.2 94.2 291.6 86.9 96.0 +17.0
McCants, Rashad +18 144.6 98.9 92.9 249.4 86.2 97.0 +16.8
Jefferson, Al -6 247.1 96.5 97.7 146.9 81.4 91.8 +9.3
Foye, Randy +3 51.7 87.3 84.5 342.3 91.4 97.2 +8.5
Buckner, Greg 0 130.6 87.1 87.1 263.4 92.8 99.7 +6.9
Davis, Ricky -10 208.2 95.0 97.3 185.8 86.3 93.5 +4.9
Smith, Craig -9 161.0 93.3 96.0 233.0 89.2 95.2 +3.3
Gomes, Ryan -13 119.0 88.7 94.0 275.0 91.8 96.2 -0.9
Richard, Chris -12 98.8 81.6 87.5 295.2 94.0 98.2 -1.6
Howard, Juwan -12 69.5 87.0 95.3 324.5 91.7 95.6 -4.4
Jaric, Marko -45 169.9 95.2 107.9 224.1 87.6 86.1 -14.2
Brewer, Corey -49 195.8 86.5 98.5 198.2 95.2 92.5 -14.7
Blount, Mark -32 73.1 74.3 95.3 321.0 94.7 95.6 -20.1
Green, Gerald -60 117.1 73.8 98.4 276.9 98.1 94.3 -28.4
Edwards, John -5 6.9 48.7 83.5 387.1 91.6 95.7 -30.7

I apologize for the density of the text--it came through in the email a lot more clearly, but I'm pretty incompetent when it comes to transferrals. Those who just want the most general sense should read it as a list of players with the best-to-worst net plus/minus totals per 48 minutes.

But if you can parse the bunched up categories, there are interesting things to consider. For example, the Wolves really did suffer from not having Telfair and (to a lesser extent) Foye running the point, especially on defense. In the 169.9 minutes Jaric was on the court, the Wolves ceded an average of 107.9 points per 48 minutes to their opponents, versus the 85.2 points per 48 allowed during the 74.3 minutes Telfair played. And during the 51.7 minutes Foye played, the D gave up just 84.5 points per 48. Offensively, the Wolves produced 101.4 points per 48 during Telfair's stints, 95.2 under Jaric, and 87.3 with Foye.

Now the disclaimers. This is preseason, it is a very very small sample, the lineups were in a constant state of flux, and it all don't mean a damn thing come the opening tip on Friday. Duly noted? Okay, back to the figures...

Aside from John Edwards, who played less than six minutes and won't make the traveling squad, the plus/minus goat is clearly Gerald Green, who logs a gross minus-60 in his 117.1 minutes of action (next worst is Corey Brewer's gross minus-49 in 195.8 minutes), and has a net minus-28.4 per 48 minutes (aside from Edwards, next worst is the departed Mark Blount with a net minus-20.4 per 48 over 73.1 minutes). And Rashad McCants had a very nice preseason, finishing with a net plus 16.8 per 48 minutes, which was not only third on the team behind Telfair's net plus 25.6 per 48 and Theo Ratliff's net plus 17.0 per 48, but is a more substantial stat because Shaddy logged 144.6 total minutes, sixth on the team and more than both Telfair (74.3) and Theo (102.4).

For those into tea leaves reading, Al Jefferson was far and away the leader in minutes played with 247.1, followed by the departed Ricky Davis with 208.2. Brewer was third 195.8--a sign of how much the Wolves want to develop him as well as his rare, on this team, good health--and Jaric, unfortunately for him, was 4th, making his bad defensive stats that much more damning.

Again, it is only preseason. But there you go.

The balmy weather and the impending denoument of my favorite season sent me up to Ely and then on to the Superior Hiking Trail for a little fresh air the past two days and I thus wasn't able to make it back for the Wolves-Bucks tilt. Here are my questions and observations simply from gleaning the recap and box score from nba.com. Anyone who can respond--or if you want to chime in with second-hand observations and questions of your own--are welcome to do so. After all, we now have less than a week of wankery before everything counts and we take hoops (but hopefully not ourselves) seriously.

* The four starters aside from Randy Foye shot 80 percent from the field (28-35)?! McCants was perfect in 8 attempts, Jefferson 9-12, Gomes 5-7 with 2-3 from trey, and Ratliff 6-8...is Milwaukee's D really that horrible? And does this look like the sensible starting lineup on opening day even before that little shooting explosion?

* Did anyone else read Sports Illustrated's NBA season preview issue, especially the Timberwolves page, especially the anonymous scout's take? Especially the part where the scout ripped Al Jefferson and gave huge ups to Gerald Green? What is a customarily fine mag like SI doing quoting obvious idiots as experts, and where was at least one editor with a smidgen of hoops knowledge to spot this bullshit and demand either a new scout, another interview, or one of those laughing heads to clue people in that the whole thing was a weird joke? Witt should throw the thing up on the bulletin board, as the mag also picked Minnesota to finish 15 out of 15 Western Conference teams. I'll bet you Mike Bibby's torn thumb ligament they finish ahead of Sacramento, and probably the Clips. BTW, Gerald Green had 5 turnovers in 8:53 tonight, which is probably why he was able to squeeze off only two missed shots.

* Green was only the most egregious turnover-er. For those who saw the game, how many of Craig Smith's seven miscues were charges or travels? And how many of those were questionable calls? And what is the world coming to when Theo Ratliff not only has as many assists as his rebounds and blocks combined, but only commits one turnovers versus his four dimes and chips in a couple of steals?

* Is Sebastian Telfair just healthier than Randy Foye right now or more adept as spreading the ball around? Six assists, two turnovers and only six shots (three of them makes, including his only trey) in 26:54 are blessed numbers for Telfair. Foye played ten fewer minutes, had as many missed FGA and personal fouls, doled out one assist and looks inert, box score-wise? True?

* I know he was a DNP, but is Antoine Walker out of shape? In street clothes or his uni? Smiling or sourpuss?

* Was the Wolves winning by 21 enough to overcome a preseason basketball game featuring 57 turnovers between the two teams? And was it a coincidence that every one of the four Wolves DNPs were at least 30 years old, or are we saying goodbye to a couple of them soon?

1. Theo In the Pivot
Let's begin with some positive news, eh? Theo Ratliff, valued first and foremost for the $11 million he will take off the books when his contract expires at the end of the season, is alive and swatting, providing the best interior presence this franchise has ever seen, at least as long as this 34-year old seven-footer fresh off a 44-minute 2006-07 season due to a bulging disc in his back can remain healthy. He had four blocks and 5 boards in 20:53, and the ballclub has a totally different feel when he's patrolling the paint. Coach Randy Wittman says if it was a regular season game rather than a warm-up during tonight's 95-106 loss to the Pacers, he would have gotten more burn. Against large opposing front lines, it's possible we'll see 28-35 minutes from Theo, for as long as it lasts, and probably half that when teams go small and quick.

Who expected this when the blockbuster KG trade was made?

Now, the cavaets. As much fun as it is to watch a legit panther-poacher looming around the hoop, Ratliff is almost destined to break down if he gets the kind of playing time his current upside merits. And even if he doesn't, will it help the Wolves' grand rebuilding to rely on a guy who will almost certainly be either retired or toiling for a contender as the 2009 version of Mutumbo or Mourning? Probably not. But this is the equivalent of Eddie Griffin on blocks, without EG's emotional seesaw, screwy shot selection, or clueless pick and roll D. So let's savor the tastes we get this season, some rare sweetness amidst the tart and tough rebuilding campaign.

2. Ricky At the Point?
The best stretch of play for the Wolves vs. Indiana was when Witt threw Ricky Davis on Pacers point guard Jamaal Tinsley in the third quarter. In the first quarter, Pretty Ricky languished while Mike Dunleavy sped to the corner to receive a pass and bury a trey en route to an 8-point first frame. And he committed five, count 'em five, turnovers, compared to just one assist in those opening twelve minutes. But matched against Tinsley to start the second half, Davis naturally rose to the challenge. Thus engaged on defense, he also doled out five dimes (versus just two turnovers), four of them to pivotmen in the paint (three for Al Jefferson, one for Ratliff) and one out to Marko Jaric for a trey.

After the game, I asked Wittman why--if Davis is going to lead the team in assists (he did tonight with seven) and guard the point guard in crucial stretches, and if Minnesota is already without a pair of points in Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair, resorting to Greg Buckner as the backup to Jaric--he doesn't officially make Davis the part-time point guard. The coach essentially answered that it takes a lot out of Davis and robs the Wolves of Davis the scorer at shooting guard.

Bah. If anything, I worry about the Wolves relying on Davis too much this season, as he and Ratliff provide a double boost of contract expiring glory on their way out the door. Hey, if you're playing Greg Buckner at the point and you've got last year's assist leader more poised and primed when he's guarding the point and controlling the rock, who cares if his minutes get cut? Isn't that a good thing; easing the sting on RD's ego and opening up time for the young'uns who are expected to carry this franchise when Davis takes his yo-yo show on the road to some other teased out sucker next season?

Meanwhile, point guard remains the biggest obstacle to this squad reaching 30 wins. Maybe Randy Foye will become The Most Improved Player in the NBA, as more than one national magazine has predicted (albeit some of them fantasy-oriented stat-freak pubs). But right now he and Telfair have lost two-thirds of the preseason games to injury and you have Al Jefferson filling the Garnett role of barking loudly at Jaric in the second half of last night's tilt. The Strib's Kent Youngblood asked Jeff about it after the game. "We're just playing ball," Big Al replied diplomatically. But stick another small shiv in Jaric's chances of getting a lot of point guard time when Foye and Telfair are healthy. And let the team's best passer and largest potential malcontent run the squad every now and then to keep his focus up and his mood chipper.

3. Gomes, the New Glue
Ryan Gomes didn't have a very pleasant first half, especially a horrid stretch in the second period when Danny Granger got in a rhythm and burned a guy most of us expect to play stolid defense for a bevy of quick baskets. But come the fourth quarter and the chance to log time at power forward beside Jefferson instead of chasing Granger around the perimeter, Gomes put on a nice little understated show, canning 5 of 7 shots, grabbing three rebounds and dishing two assists--all team highs for the period, and all done with an economical anti-flourish that is destined to make Gomes a purist-fan favorite.

Like Theo and Davis, Gomes has an expiring contract, and an appreciative mass of fans who saw his handiwork the previous two seasons back in Boston. That's the franchise with three stars and a great need for a large swingman with glue-like qualities. So let's hope this isn't merely an appetizing rental.

Let's assume the news is true, and the Wolves are indeed, as is being reported by ESPN and other outlets, trading Mark Blount and Ricky Davis to the Heat for Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, Wayne Simien and, perhaps most importantly, at least one future draft pick. This is a classic addition by subtraction deal. I have been arguing for Mark Blount to be renounced since the Garnett trade. He laid down like a dog after the all star break last season as blatantly as any human being in a Timberwolves uniform ever laid down. The emergence of Theo Ratliff as a viable force in the middle, the ability of Jefferson to slide over to center, and now the arrival of Doleac, a classic banger with a midrange J (who should ease the fear of unloading Juwan Howard if McHale isn't done trading), made Blount irrelevant as a niche talent as well as dislikeable for his anti-industry.

Ricky Davis likewise has issues, thoroughly discussed here and elsewhere on numerous occasions. He has a marvelous and multifaceted set of skills, and Miami is a good place for him to go, what with Shaq and Wade as the abiding 1-2 punch and a taskmaster like Pat Riley patrolling the sidelines. I suspect that trio plus Ricky's impending contract expiration will give the Heat an invaluable, utilitarian third wheel. But in Minnesota, Pretty Ricky was destined to either be unhappy with his playing time or totally retard the team's rebuilding efforts by hogging minutes and turning on the talent spigot whenever he felt like it, which has been about 60-70 percent of the time the past two seasons; just enough to engender a little faith and then dash it away.

Put simply, good riddance to a pair that had about a 99 percent chance of hurting rather than helping the long-term prospects for this franchise had they stayed.

The additions and the current situation are less exciting. To lose Blount, the Wolves essentially had to obtain Antoine Walker. I don't know who is accurate here, but Shamsports.com has Blount and Walker both with contracts with team options for 2009-10, with Walker getting about $2 million more per season than Blount's bloated deal. In his espn.com report on the rumored trade, Marc Stein claims that Walker has one year less if the option isn't picked up. Walker is obviously more talented. While the salary situation is comparable to Blount, the personality issues are akin to Davis, in that when he's Walker wants to play, he can be a generous and synergistic teammate--he was a key cog on Miami's championship team throughout the postseason two years ago, and was a worthy complement to Paul Pierce for a few years of overachievement in Boston. But when 'Toine doesn't feel like playing D, he can sabotage rotations with disarming rapidity. And when he decides he's going to launch anywhere from 6 to 10 treys in an evening, he can short-circuit an offense like nobody's business. He also isn't going to be doing jumping jacks over the notion of moving from glitzy Miami from a legit contender to the frozen tundra to nurture the nascent Wolves for the next two years. In other words, the Wolves may have traded two sure-fire problems for another, slightly more expensive, problem.

The other two guys in the trade, Michael Doleac and Wayne Simien, are bangers, pure and simple, fulfilling Kevin McHale's smashmouth recipe with copious amounts of elbow grease. How many 6-9, 260 pound guys does it take to box out the Western Hemisphere? McHale is trying to answer that question. On the plus side, the contracts of Doleac and Simien are both up at the end of this year (Simien has a team option).
Last, but certainly not least, the draft pick, or picks, is crucial here. Even if Miami finishes well enough to make it up toward the end of the first round, it will ease the sting of the inevitable year Minnesota must fork over their own pick to complete the Cassell-for-Jaric trade.

Final thoughts on this first take: Miami has entered the arms race for the Eastern Crown. Davis is both insurance for Wade, who is iffy physically, and a potentially potent part of the future in Florida, provided he can keep his head screwed on straight. If he contributes big, he can command a pretty nice deal at the end of the season, and Miami, who are already committed to $35 million for Shaq and Wade alone over the next two years, will pay it to keep the contention going.

Meanwhile, this deal isn't as much of a salary cap breather for Minnesota as you might expect--none actually, if you consider that Walker and Blount are a wash, and ditto RD versus Doleac and Simien.

Finally, all this talk about a 2-for-1 trade to shed contracts wound up being a 2-for-3 trade that adds more bodies. Are more trades on the horizon (like Howard)? It would be nice to see this squad flip some of their extra pieces to Atlanta for one of the Hawks' caddies for Acie Law, either Speedy Claxton or Tyrone Lue. If that doesn't happen, well, would this squad renounce Antoine Walker? Because he's the new contract albatross (nudging out Marko Jaric) on the roster now. I don't think the other shoe has dropped yet.