The Rake Magazine

On April Fools Day, I convened two of the smartest diamond watchers I know, The Rake's own Brad Zellar (of Warning Track Power) and veteran Twin Cities journalist David Brauer for a Twins diablog. You can go back and find it in the archives or take my word that it was absolutely the most prescient slab of baseball wisdom delivered this calendar year (you should probably check). Anyway, hyperbole aside, the conversation did go well enough that I am making good on my threat to repeat it. What follows is a three-round hash, written between the afternoons of Monday May 28 and Tuesday May 29.

Britt Robson

What do Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz have in common? As any Twins fan can tell you, they all fall somewhere between "very suspect" and "washed-up" vets upon whom the Twins have unwisely gambled their past two springs. What's especially concerning about this is that even casual fans foresaw the collapse of this quartet--it was a too-obvious reach on the part of GM Terry Ryan. (Full disclosure: I was so infatuated with Ryan's acumen for judging talent that I was one of the precious few either defending his choices or suspending judgment on that hapless quartet the past two preseasons.)

I suppose the counter-argument is "no harm, no foul," in that Ryan's Twins won the division last year and appear to be rounding into shape in time to contend this season. But that's twice the club has pissed away two months before acknowledging what most everyone could have predicted.

Is this simply to save money? The longer the Sloweys and Garzas of the world stay on the farm, the longer they wait for arbitration and free agency. Would Ryan, Pohlad and company be so cynical as to stagger their tenures so that if, say, Santana, prices himself out of the market they will have other aces-in-waiting for two or three years rather than one or two? And, if the cheap vets don't pan out early and they stock from the farm system, it quells talk of going out and getting a bat or an arm for the pennant race in midseason. To choose two examples: Is Craig Wilson really so washed up that this ballclub shouldn't take a chance on him? Seems to me he's an ideal American League DH. I guess the fact that no one else has bitten on his services indicates his ability fell off the table--he had 29 homers in '04 and is only 30. Second, with the Reds starters getting regally hammered--the Pirates, of all teams, put away all three games in the first inning over the weekend--and with ex-Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky now running the Reds, couldn't we dangle Scott Baker or Carlos Silva for Edwin Encarnacion, who they actually sent to the minors last month, or Ryan Freel? EE is apparently a lousy fielder, but there's no reason he could fill some kind of 3B/DH platoon with Jeff Cirillo and let Nick Punto become the super utility man he was born to be. Freel is in an even better fit, a guy who can play anywhere but most often at 3B and CF, a pair of holes for this ballclub if they don't sign Torii Hunter at the end of this season. (Because if you're a minor league stat reader, you know Denard Spann is a loooong way from ready.)

A few other passing comments before I pass the baton to you two. Is Torii Hunter playing himself into a hometown discounted $40-45 million deal over the next three years? More 20/20 hindsight, but shouldn't the Twins have locked up the MVP before the season started and he started proving that he's only getting started on a string of quality seasons? Should the Twins think about moving Mauer to third and finding someone to platoon with Redmond, a pretty damn good catcher in his own right. Mauer's height (big catchers don't last), injury history and upside at the plate all make such a move at least worth considering. And is it time to call Jason Kubel a bust? (I think he is.)

Don't let these subjects limit you. If you've got something else on your mind, let it fly....

David Brauer

As the originator of the "wait to call up and delay arbitration year argument," I'm willing to cut the Twins a bit of slack...at least on Garza. Sounds like we have a bit of a "ten-cent head" problem (see: Kubel, Jason) with Matt--if he is not listening to Rochester about mixing pitches, he deserves the delay. (As Crash Davis once said, "Don't think, meat.")

Funny you should mention Krivsky: the Reds aren't exactly thriving, are they? (As of this writing, they're 19-33 and last in the Worst Division in Baseball. Also by the way, Zach Ward, the pitcher the Twins got for Lohse, is pitching at Ft. Myers and his record is identical to Lohse's--2-6--though Ward has a 2.72 ERA.) One of the few correct predictions I made earlier this year was that of Silva, Ortiz and Ponson, one would work out--not a dangerous prediction, mind you, but even with Silva's 4.22 ERA, I'll notch it in pencil. I think with such uncertain starters, we'd be foolish to give up on Silva or Baker at this point, and Krivsky is unlikely to take our sloppy seconds; last year, he was in a pennant race; this year, not so much. If you figure on Garza, Slowey and Baker, two will work out, you still need Silva to contend, I think--the division is just that tough, and the sluggers Britt mentions are too one-dimensional or non-slugger enough for me to wait. (By the way, Freel was knocked unconscious today--not hurt seriously, but we'll need concussion specialists to peer at those retinas.)

Sadly for me, Souhan stole my proposed line-up from here on out: Castillo, Mauer in the two hole, Cuddy, MVP, Hunter. L-R-L-R 2-through-5, and concentrate the pain (both for the other team at the top of the order and us at the bottom). It sucks that Kubel has been so useless at the plate--though his glove is coming on–-but I've always believed in getting the best hitters the most at-bats, and DH, Kubel (or perhaps Tyner), Punto, Bartlett should be at the bottom. (Punto and Bartlett can flip.)

Had you asked back in March, I would've said "Adios, Torii" with a heavy heart. With a glint of steel in my eye, I still feel that way now. He's clearly a top-tier player, and will command much more than a three-year deal. (Watching Damon, you don't think the Yanks will offer five?) I happen to feel the team's top priorities are Santana and Morneau, and it will take every bit of coin to re-up them. I believe 32-year-old Torii will be increasingly injury-prone, exactly the sort of player the BoSox or Yanks can take a chance on, but we can't. Santana could be the A-Rod of pitchers (financially, I mean), though we should discuss that ERA--I'm not sure what's up. Lots of FA outfielders next year, though it's silly to resist market price for the best guy and have to go bidding for his inferior. Would Santana re-sign if the ERA-reducing Hunter is gone?

I of course hope the Twins either contend to the end or fall out hard so as to trade Torii for something. I'm fine if this is a developmental year...if you look at the starting fielders, sans Hunter and Castillo, this is still a young club, and the starters will be equally green (even Johan is only 28).

While I was more or less right about Rincon's submergence (opponents' OPS is a hefty .737 this year, the third consecutive rise, up from .528 in '04 and .575 in '05, aka the Juice Years) I do have to doff my size-7 to Mr. Robson with his insistence that Cleveland was the team to beat. I never thought I'd see an AL Saves leader (Borowski) with an 6.75 ERA, but I'm obviously seeing the trees, not the forest. Oh, and even though Grady Sizemore looked like a turd for a few weeks back, his OPS stands at .858 (off last year's pace by a little) and he's hitting lefties and righties equally well. I wouldn't trade him for the MVP, though (.954 OPS and rising).

Brad Zellar

The Twins already have a fair amount of money invested in Ortiz and
Silva--something like $7.5 million dollars--so I don't quite
understand the whole economics angle as it applies to Garza et al. It
just seems like a ridiculous gamble at this point. If the guy turns
out to be good enough to justify a bank-breaking arbitration figure
down the line, well, shit, good for the Twins.

At this point--precisely *because* of guys like Batista, Ponson, and
Ortiz--I'm against the team going out and trying to snag some
reclamation project from another club. The Twins are good at finding
and developing talent, but, with the exception of the occasional blip
in the bullpen, they haven't had a particularly good track record with
nurturing comebacks or resurrecting careers. Somewhere down the line
--maybe even later this year, if they fall way out of contention--
it's possible they'll have to trade away some of those young arms for
some offensive prospects, but I don't think that time is now.

Right now, and as we go forward, I think they have to worry about
shoring up that bullpen and finding some serviceable warm bodies to
eat up innings, and the obvious solution (given Ortiz's salary and
early success) is exactly what they're apparently going to do: bring
up Slowey and toss Ortiz to the bullpen to see if he can get some work
in. If Silva slips again, I say push him to the pen as well and bring
up Garza. The scuttlebutt about Garza quibbling about pitch selection
in Rochester is much ado about nothing, I imagine. He was more than
solid in his last outing, and if he's struggling with pitch selection
it seem to make more sense to have him up here working with the
coaching staff and watching guys like Santana pitch.

Like David I was agnostic about the Twins picking up Hunter's option
this year. I'm not going to gripe if he plays so well the team can no
longer afford him. Somebody almost certainly is going to throw
ridiculous dollars in his direction, and I don't know if the Twins can
or should try to play at those prices, whether Denard Spann is ready
or not. Not that I have any other ideas, of course, but I'd love to
see Terry Ryan be more active in making creative trades, and I still
very much trust his judgment when it comes to young, unproven players.
The problem is that he falls in love with his own so much that he can
never seem to part with them.

I still think Cleveland's bullpen is going to bring the Indians a good
deal of grief, although I'm willing to chalk that up to wishful
thinking. And I still wouldn't trade Morneau for Sizemore, although
with the Hunter situation it would be mighty, mighty tempting.

Also, I have to stress this: with all the injuries I really do believe
the big concern right now is the bullpen, which has been getting worn
out. The bottom line on Rincon is that he's more or less been getting
the job done, but it's unlikely that he can just swap places with
Neshek or Guerrier and gobble up middle innings. He may well be the
next guy to go down with a bum arm; the early warning signs are all
there.

And I don't agree that it's time to give up on Kubel. The guy has come
a long ways from that horrific injury, and at this point he sort of
reminds me of where Cuddyer was at a few years ago. If the Twins are
really interested in finding out whether or not he's the real deal
they need to throw him out there every day.

Oh, and this: I've been obsessing about the batting order all season,
and went into it yesterday on my blog. It seems both a shame and a sort of unfortunate recognition of the guy's talents to suggest that Mauer should be batting second. He may be a three hitter somewhere down the line, but he's not at the moment. And I also say screw the conventional wisdom (lefty-righty) and stack Mauer and Morneau back-to-back, and follow them with Cuddyer and Hunter. I just think it's huge to get Morneau to the plate every day in the first inning, especially if Castillo and Mauer are going to be on the basepaths roughly 40% of the time.

Britt Robson

As always with you guys, a feast of food for thought and a chance for some arguments with smart people.

This actually is a continuation of our preseason roundtable, where, unlike you two, I was more concerned about the offense than the pitching. Well, the Twins are currently 4th in the AL in ERA and tied for 7th in runs scored. Help is on the way in both places--Mauer is coming back and there's Garza and Slowey in the minors--but even after the injurious trifecta of Crain, Reyes, and Perkins, and acknowledging the fact that the Twins' ERA is currently its highest since 2003, I still see this squad falling short because of bats, not arms. Ever since the perpetually lamentable Dick Such was finally given his walking papers, the Twins have done a great job stitching together middle relief. Yeah, I'll admit I hadn't heard of any of
the three guys they brought up to replace the injured wings, but after going to the extra-inning loss to the Blue Jays over the weekend, I'd have to say that both Cali and Miller looked fine (DePaulo isn't ready, walking the only two batters he faced after yielding six to Texas in one inning previously), and they've got another lefty, Ricky Barrett, putting up good numbers for
Rochester in Triple-A. Bottom line, Guerrier and Neshek had both shown enough for promotion before the injuries. These other guys, plus Ortiz in middle relief, can fill in until Reyes and Perkins return.

That's a hell of a lot easier to patch than figuring out how the Twins get better on offense. Rondell White? Kubel? Are you confident that Mauer stays healthy the rest of the year when he comes back on Friday? (And I repeat, should he remain behind the plate?) Ryan needs to be a little more proactive in bolstering his offense. What's
the harm in giving Craig Wilson a look? Is that really a bigger gamble than the ones he took on Ponson or Batista? And if not Wilson, one would think a right-handed hitter with a better potential OPS than Jeff Cirillo or Jason Tyner wouldn't be that hard to come by. I'm willing to say that Jason Kubel will never be the hitter Michael Cuddyer is; just watching them both at similar points in their careers, Kubel seems more Terry Tiffee than Cuddyer to me. Shit, Michael Restovich looked better than Kubel and he's a Triple-A
hitter. And Kubel bats left, something this team does not need.

As for the two of you and Souhan, let me stipulate that the Mauer batting second idea was to my knowledge first broached by one of my smart readers, Moroni, in the comments to our first Twins diablog. I quote: "To me the lineup should be shuffled. Mauer is the prototypical two hitter, and lacks power for the three spot. Why have one of your three worst hitters (Punto) take a top spot in the batting order and have a 30HR hitter batting 6th?" This was said on April 2 (and I immediately agreed with him and applauded
him for his wisdom).

The question is, how much more is Morneau worth now than he was two months ago when they were trying to land him with Mauer-like terms?
I'll end my round this time by agreeing with you both that Santana at
$20-$22 million per year is a better value than Hunter at $13-$15 million a year. But can Santana be had for even that price? I'm guessing the Twins don't sign either one, cross their fingers on Liriano, and hope that those incredible scouts keep producing the killer dope that has kept this team so likeable for the past five years.

David Brauer

Couple of clarifications:

1. Brad, I wasn't suggesting giving up on Kubel; he's just looked like shit at the plate. Britt; I think he shows more authority when he whacks the ball than Tiffee; not disagreeing with you here, since you seems to put him between Cuddy and Tiffee. But that said, Kubel's OPS is down from '06, which was down from '05. My major point is he's not the answer this year. I still wouldn't trade young pitching at AA or above, so I guess we go to war with the offense we have. Don't know much about Craig Wilson, but his OPS--a quite decent .817 last year--makes him worth exploring.

2. Arbitration. It's true Ortiz and Silva cost $7.3 million this year, but it's still economical, even at that price, to forestall a year of arbitration--and more importantly, free agency--for one or two players. (I agree with Brad it's a nice problem to have.) Think of how salaries have escalated, project that cost inflation to the future, and then you realize that extra season of non-arb (instead of arb) and then arb (instead of free agency) can easily save multiple millions. There's also the salutary effect of keeping a couple of guys in the minors to make sure the spring training lessons hold before climbing into the real foxhole.

Britt, I was at the same Saturday game as you and Cali looked wild and
outside; Miller was the only one that left me feeling good but it's a small sample size.

Mauer is a hell of a catcher, of course, and I'm not sure if catching is why he's hurt so much. Me and my pal had a good discussion about whether a 6-5 guy would be a good third baseman. He questioned Mauer's range--I said it's a gun position and Mauer's got that. It would be a shame to lose his smarts behind the plate, though Redmond deserves (but possibly cannot physically withstand) more time behind the plate, especially if we do this next year. Heinz does not appear to the answer. Is it easier to find an OPS-hitting third baseman or a sturdy replacement catcher? I kinda think the latter.

The great risk is losing Santana AND Hunter. The Twins wouldn't have won four of five divisions by signing a guy like Hunter to the four- or five-year deal he will command. Then again, they might've won the World Series (and then quickly fallen on hard times) if they had gone after a similar caliber player one of those contending seasons. But back to reality. Santana: eight years, $200 million. If he signs, he'd be as old at the end of the deal as Hunter would be if we signed him for four.

Brad Zellar

I agree that offense is a bigger concern than the pitching. That's
pretty much been the consistent thread throughout this string of
successful seasons. The Twins were winning the Central before the
emergence of Morneau and Cuddyer, before Luis Castillo came along, and
before Hunter's (apparent) late maturation as a hitter. They won with
Jacque Jones batting leadoff, Cristian Guzman second, and Doug fucking
Mientkiewicz hitting third.

Granted, that was an entirely different Central Division, but even as
currently configured this lineup looks like the 1927 Yankees in
comparison with some of those teams. Yes, they're tied for seventh in
the AL in runs scored, but this is also a team that scuffled to score
runs during its early slide. I don't think there's any harm in giving
*anybody* a look, but I just wouldn't expect guys like Encarnacion,
Freel, or Wilson to be answers to any serious questions about the
offense. We may be stuck with Rondell White.

And for better or worse I also think they're stuck with the piranhas,
and have to hope that those guys can step it up from time to time (as
they did on Monday against the White Sox) and take a little of the
pressure off the middle of the order.

You gotta figure that with the new stadium hoopla the team's front
office is going to take a few deep breaths and fork over the cash to
lock up Santana and Morneau. They've had plenty of opportunities to
sign Hunter to a longterm contract--will he stay or will he go has
been a persistent theme over the last several seasons--but they
haven't done so, and I suppose they, like everybody else, were waiting
for him to be a consistent run producer, and had concluded that it
wasn't in the cards. You know damn well he's going to hit a rough
patch--the guy has always been streaky--and he's also been
increasingly injury prone in the last couple years. If he stays
healthy and continues to put up big numbers I'm going to wager that
they'll think long and hard about making a play for him, if only to
leverage public opinion as they look ahead to the new ballpark. I'm
still not sure that would be such a good idea, but with so few
offensive replacement parts in their system they may feel the
pressure.

It's going to be interesting to see how Mauer responds when he comes
back. You certainly have to be concerned when such a young (and big)
catcher misses chunks of time with leg injuries so early in his
career. Eventually you have to figure they'll move him from behind the
plate, but that'll be a decision for somewhere down the line, although
it may come sooner than the team would like.

Britt Robson

Okay, prediction time. Here are my questions: Where will the Twins finish? Who is the biggest goat between now and October? The most reliable performer? And the most unlikely savior who nevertheless comes through?

I'll take them in reverse order. Against all odds, I say Jason Bartlett has a whale of a second half in both the field and the plate. Yes, I know he wore down last year. And yes, I know he doesn't profile as a quality SS that way. That's why he's an unlikely savior. More predictably, Pat Neshek will be the new Rincon/Crain, a reliable 8th inning guy who Gardy will increasingly rely on for two innings because he can handle the work and is just that good.

For most reliable performer, I'm going with Neshek and Cuddyer, in
that order. Morneau will have a great season but experience a slump at a very bad time--down the stretch and/or in a series versus AL Central rivals. (There are no losers in a Morneau for Sizemore trade, but I'd still rather have the fleet, five-tool centerfielder.)
Santana will be mostly marvelous, but a titch less reliable than the previous lights out summers.

Goats that don't count: Kubel and White. They're already there, and it isn't going to get that much better. I'm predicting the goat to be a tie between Mauer and Castillo, both for reasons of injuries, which will plague the Twins starting lineup for the rest of the season. Consequently, the Twins will be in a dogfight with the White Sox for third place behind Cleveland and Detroit, respectively. The Tribe's bullpen is fine, folks, with Betancourt reliable, Mastny gaining experience and Borowski better than his numbers indicate (two horrible outings account for that high ERA. Check out his save percentage--I think he's 17 for 19 or something like that--for his true performance value) and the rotation bolstered enough by Westbrook's return to keep the pen from burning out.

As always, thanks for your time and wisdom. Let's do it again on the 4th of July.

David Brauer

At this point, I like the Twins third. I stick with Detroit as the division winner.

Biggest goat: Ford. Not a vital cog, but this is the place I have to stick my "Why is Lew Ford even in the majors anymore?" gripe. No upside, everything else is slipping (OPS under .600 last year, under .500 this year, mediocre at best outfielder). Among the regulars, I'll take a flier on Nathan. More hits than innings pitched and several other troubling trends. Not a sure thing but a good longshot.

Most reliable: I'd love to pick Castillo; you get exactly the same good thing every time--uncanny for a position player. But health is an issue. I'll take Redmond.

Unlikely savior: Kubel, if he does a Cuddy on us second half.

Brad Zellar

Neshek already *is* the new Crain/Rincon. And he already has more
intensity and pitching intelligence than either of them. I worry a
little bit about him wearing down, but I love his zeal and attention
to detail, and he really is a first-rate character and a great story.

And I agree with Britt about Bartlett. I think they guy is just
getting healthy, and he seems to be regaining some of his swagger. At
the very least I don't think he's anybody the Twins need to worry
about. I also like Bonser's chances to surprise. He's a battler, and
clearly has a pretty fierce desire to get better, so it wouldn't stun
me much if his learning curve isn't as steep as, say, Baker's.

I'll also go with Cuddyer as the most reliable performer. He's still
not drawing a ton of walks, but his pitch selection, ability to work
the count, and plate coverage just gets better and better (did you see
the Contreras pitch he looped for an rbi single on Monday? Great at
bat). And Morneau, I believe, is going to have a monster year. I expect he'll only get better with Mauer back in the lineup.

If the season runs aground in the second half I expect it's going to
be due to the collective collapse of the piranhas, and is going to
make that whole marketing gambit look foolish. I also think teams are
eventually going to learn to pitch around Hunter, or at least to pitch
him more carefully. I continue to be astonished by how many hittable
pitches he's seeing, and can't understand *why*.

I'm a little bit reluctant to make any predictions at this point;
that's a cop-out, I know, but I'd like to see how the Twins respond
after Mauer comes back, and as the bullpen sorts itself out over the
next couple weeks. And I'm eager to have a look at Slowey. I'm still
going to cling to my belief (an annual delusion, actually) that this
team can hold its own the rest of the way. And I still believe that
both Detroit and Cleveland are going to fall off and let the Twins
back into the race. I'm guessing the wild card is going to again come
out of the Central, and I like the Twins' chances.

Okay folks, it really couldn't have turned out much worse for the Timberwolves in the lottery tonight. True, the Wolves got the #7 choice, which was their mathematical likelihood in terms of record and ping-pong balls. But more importantly, the two top studs in the draft, Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, will be playing for teams in the Wolves' Northwest Division, which will likely become the toughest in basketball over the next two or three years. Denver and Utah are both quality teams with a good mixture of youth and experience, and talent such as Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Carlos Boozer, Nene and Andrei Kirilenko. Portland, with the top pick and the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, and Seattle, with Ray Allen and the second pick, now leapfrog ahead of Minnesota in terms of overall potential.

Just to rub it in: Portland's 5.3% chance of landing the top pick was no better or worse than Minnesota's.

What's your take? Any chances of trading for one of Portland's big men? Who should the Wolves grab with #7? And what's your take on this latest bit of discouraging news?

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Detroit Pistons (1)

If I had any guts, I'd call the Cavs in 6 or 7. That is what my gut tells me--the same gut that said the Bulls would need no more than 5 or 6 games to knock off these same Pistons. Obviously, there is something about Detroit--the overwhelming consensual favorite to reach the NBA Finals--that I disrespect. Naturally I've thought about it a fair bit during the Bulls series--having your analysis turned into foolishness will do that--and I think it has to do with believing the Pistons have bought into Flip Saunders' multi-pass, high jumper, low turnover, low free throw offense. It is a marvelous thing to behold, and the Pistons play it superbly. But missed shots are nearly as injurious as turnovers, and sometimes those jumpers won't fall. If and when that happens, do the Pistons have enough resourcefulness via their defense and their one-on-one capabilities to gut it out? And if not, do the Cavs have sufficient offensive firepower to make them pay?

There are two ways to look at the Bulls series. One, the Pistons hauled off and belted Chicago in the mouth twice with a pair of absolutely sublime efforts at both ends of the court. Having gone up 2-0, they had no respect left, especially when they just flipped a switch in the second half of Game Three and won going away, on the road. The next two tilts were the product of overconfidence and the Bulls playing for pride under a feisty coach.

Another way to look at it is that the youthful Bulls came out both a little nervous and a tad overconfident after sweeping Miami. Detroit was more experienced and better prepared and just undressed Chicago, twice. The Bulls team that ran and shot so well all season and then steamrolled Miami thus never really found their footing in this series until it was too late. When Chicago did settle into what was previously a normal groove, they proved capable of hanging with Detroit and extending them to the limit if not winning outright.

I subscribe to the second theory--that the real Bulls never showed up, and that guys like Nocioni and Ben Gordon were exposed mentally as well as physically. But if the Pistons dismantle the Cavs the way they did Chicago, even a stubborn skeptic like me has to cop to their worthiness to battle San Antonio (and lose, but that's another story).

This will be a good test for Detroit because Cleveland presents a different challenge than did the Bulls. I thought Chicago would simply be too quick for Detroit up and down the court. That may have been accurate, had we seen the regular 2006-07 Bulls. But what isn't true is that Detroit lacked Chicago's bench. Jason Maxiell and Lindsay Hunter and of course Antonio McDyess, who is a bench player the way Ginobili is a bench player, all had very good games versus the Bulls. But what they don't do is shoot lights out. The starters, especially Hamilton-Billup-Prince, are the key to Saunders' ball movement, jump-shooting game, because when any of those three are open, you expect the ball to go through the net. The other key is that Saunders' offense divides up shots among different players, and having that trio all be reliable is a huge boon to the system. And no, I'm not forgetting 'Sheed, who is less midrange and more paint-or-trey and thus the flexible one of the quartet that scores.

So, why are the Cavs a challenging matchup? Because ever since Pavlovic was inserted into the starting lineup, Cleveland can defend the midrange jumper better than anyone this side of San Antonio. Their quickness is less about running up and down 94 feet, like the Bulls, and more lateral and quick-bursting while defending in the half-court. And that kind of quickness and length may be more troubling to Detroit.

Two other factors make the Cavs an intriguing opponent for the Pistons. The first, of course, is LeBron, who is second only to Kobe Bryant is being a guy to just explode seven different ways and destroy a team (occasionally his own). LeBron was if anything too share-oriented with his teammates against New Jersey, and will probably need to do less driving and kicking and more penetrating against the Pistons. But the greater point is, this is really the litmus test for Cleveland, who have played a couple of mediocre opponents thus far and really have no identity with even loyal NBA fans outside of northern Ohio. This is where LeBron can make his statement, in other words, after a fitful season that saw him mail it in for much of the early months, and only occasionally turn it on in the past six to eight weeks. I don't think he should be a ball hog, and if he wants to devote more energy to clamping down Detroit's shooters beside Larry Hughes and Pavlovic, that makes sense. But he has to make a superstar's impact on some level if the Cavs are to pull the upset.

The second intriguing factor is Z Ilgauskas. Detroit really has no good matchup for him, but then again neither did Washington and New Jersey, and Z was hardly the force he could and should have been in those rounds. He shot a very mediocre 48 percent and got just 11 points and 9 rebounds in 33 minutes against the Nets. More disturbing, he shot fewer field goals than anyone in the starting lineup, including Pavlovic; half as many FGA as Hughes, and ten fewer shots per game than LeBron. He also averaged only 4 free throws per game, and was outrebounded for the series by teammate Drew Gooden. For the Cavs to topple Detroit, unless LeBron pulls a Kobe, Z must give them about 18 and 12, and Mike Brown is crazy if he doesn't explore ways of making it happen. No more shrinking violet in the paint. The Pistons are vulnerable in precious few places, and getting it to the big man when the superstar is double and triple teamed in one way for that to happen.

Detroit has been very successful at running the 3-2 matchup zone that Saunders perfected in Minnesota. It was by far his best defensive allignment with the Wolves, but it also taxed the hell out of KG, the man at the top of the key in what occasionally was a 1-2-2 instead of a 3-2. The Pistons are deadly with it because Tayshaun Prince is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, an indefatigable defender with a seven-foot wingspan who just happens to also be one of their best clutch shooters (better than Billups and Rip, in my book). If Detroit's zone is clicking, expect Lebron to try and take over by himself more often, and for either many points or many turnovers to ensue. James vs. The Zone is one of the great subplots.

The question becomes, who guards Hamilton? Pavlovic had a marvelous series against Vince Carter and is a little too balky to guard Billups. LeBron and Prince will match up on each other. But Pavlovic is going to discover that stopping Rip Hamilton in the playoffs is tougher than stopping Vince Carter, for reasons of mental toughness and a better supporting cast, for starters. Hughes vs. Billups is a great matchup, as Hughes is a gambler and Billups likes to make gamblers pay. Again, if Cleveland can force nearly as many turnovers as they commit, this will be a tight series. And the turnovers, if they happen, will be on the perimeter.

For the Bulls series, I predicted that Rasheed Wallace wouldn't be able to handle the banging of PJ Brown and the gritty annoyance of Nocioni. But neither PJ nor Nocioni was able to do too much and part of the credit goes to 'Sheed (the rest to Saunders' system). Also, 'Sheed kept his head. That said, if I was entering a pool on most likely combatants for a playoffs setto, 'Sheed and Gooden would come in just a hair behind Harpring and Bowen as my pick to duke it out.

This will be a tough, physical series--duh, it's the conference finals, and the unphysical teams have gone home. But again, my gut tells me that Detroit is the least physical of the four remaining squads. Will that matter in this round?

Hamilton, Prince and Billups are, in the end, very tough to pick against when you are staying inside the Eastern Conference. Of the variables Cleveland needs, I think LeBron will explode once or twice, that Hughes will embarrass Billups once or twice, and that Z might even get off once or twice. Cleveland will even win twice or thrice as a result. The gut says the Cavs, the head overrules and chooses Detroit in 6 or 7.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

This will be a war, very physical, but don't for a moment believe it will be boring. Neither the Spurs nor the Jazz are a plodding team, both feature creatively intelligent big men and freakishly athletic 'tweeners. The war will be in two places: on penetration and pick-and-rolls in the half-court, where the Spurs' defense doesn't give an inch and the Spurs penetrators are especially fearless; and under the boards, where the Jazz battle for position and gang-bang on the glass better than any NBA team. But there was also be some gorgeous ballet, both in transition and in the synergistic execution displayed by teams doing the bidding of the league's two most demanding coaches, Gregg Popovich and Jerry Sloan. Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his Hall of Fame career.

Let's get to the keys, beginning with Andrei Kirilenko's ability to guard Manu Ginobili. Yes, Tim Duncan killed the Suns in the second round, but that was expected. How well the Spurs played when Duncan sat and the keys to the offense were flipped to Manu was the more stealthy dagger. Ginobili possesses one of the most cherished virtues in sports, the ability to elevate his game in pressure situations. Those who claim players don't get better under pressure so much as maintain their composure and not get worse have never watched Ginobili for an extended period of time. This is a player who lives for the biggest stage, and now has the confidence of knowing he has consistently delivered. His career, internationally and in the NBA, lacks the extreme drama of Big Shot Rob Horry's game-winning jumpers, but has actually been more influential to his team's winning--the window on his crunchtime prowess extends long before the last five seconds of play. The Spurs don't win a ring in 2005 without him, and I don't think they beat the Suns this postseason either.

But assuming Sloan is smart enough to devote his best perimeter defender to stopping Ginobili, Manu will have his hands full with Kirilenko, who snuffed Stephen Jackson pretty thoroughly in the Golden State series. What's easy to forget about Ginobili is that he's 6-6, larger than most guys who try to contain him on the perimeter. He is also physically very wiry, without fear, and a superb physical improviser, all of which make him one of the premiere penetrators in the game. Watch Ginobili compared to Parker, a pretty fair penetrator in his own right. But watch how vertical Parker is; it is all speed, and his finishes are almost always banks off the glass right at the baseline. Ginobili is a wender, continually feinting, crossover dribbling, cutting across the lane, and varying his approach from pullback to clear his shot to barge into his opponent to draw the foul. You don't know if the conclusion will be a banker, a finger-roll, a teardrop, or a melodramatic crashing into the photographers along the baseline as he gets "crushed" goading the foul. How do you defend that? How about with a lightning-quick, 6-9 gazelle with a seven-footer's wingspan who prides himself on defense, loves to block shots and has a pretty fair sense of timing and intuitive intelligence? That's Kirilenko. If he can stay out of foul trouble (and Ginobili is a master at drawing them) and make the Spurs pay for sitting Duncan--preventing the Big Fundamental from regenerating after taking the multi-faceted pounding he'll get in constant small doses that are far more taxing than anything he received versus Denver or Phoenix--than the Jazz have a shot.

Two other keys for Utah to make this competitive: Their two clutch outside shooters, Mehmet Okur and Derek Fisher, have to come through. I'm guessing that when it matters, Horry will be on Okur and Tony Parker will be guarding Fisher. Both are underrated defenders, but both can be beaten. Horry is a step slow and undersized in the paint, so if Okur can have some success down low and then move outside, he could create problems. Parker used to be a real liability on D, but his play on Allen Iverson was a bit of a revelation. I'm guessing Bruce Bowen guards Deron Williams though, putting Parker on Fisher, who will pick and choose his spots better than Iverson, lulling Parker, who is prone to mental lapses on D more than any other Spur starter, into freeing him up for crucial treys. If Fisher and/or Okur can get off from outside, once again the Jazz have a shot.

And why, otherwise, do they have no shot? Well, one reason is because
Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his career. I mean, 9 blocks in Game Six the other night, not to mention all the defensive rotations and quality rebounds. Duncan had David Robinson beside him in the paint for his first two rings, and the third one owed as much to his caped crusaders in the backcourt, Parker and Ginobili, as he hobbled around at about 80 percent. The Duncan we are seeing now may be a step slower, but he is tougher and wiser, and playing like the classic centers of yore, back in the days of Wilt and Russell and Nate Thurmond and Wes Unseld. He's got a little of all those guys in him now. In fact it is absurd that Amare Stoudamire was an All-NBA center this season when it was obvious to anyone watching that Duncan is really a center instead of a power forward, and the best center in the game at that.

Remember when most of Duncan's points came on those 15-footers off the glass? Now, TD is much more of a back-to-the-basket guy, still using the glass but mostly as a culmination of the spin moves. He can still face up and then deliver facials, as Kurt Thomas discovered in the third quarter of Game Five, the unfortunate suspension game. But more often than not now, Duncan is the low post way-station and Oberto or Elson is a bit part in the whole drama.

It is hard not to admire Carlos Boozer's emergence this season, and his ability to score over Yao was the determining factor in Utah's first round victory. But Duncan is a very tough matchup for Boozer, who will also see some of Oberto, and unless he gets some calls from the refs and gets Duncan in foul trouble, I don't foresee him being a positive factor for the Jazz.

That leaves us with Bowen and Deron Williams. I count myself as one of Bill Simmons' biggest fans, but the "Sports Guy"'s calling out Bowen as a manifestly dirtier player than other NBA enforcers was in my opinion itself a cheap shot. Simmons made a big deal out of Bowen being a nonentity in the league before deciding he had to do whatever it takes to stay in the league. Hmmm, sounds a lot like the Suns Raja Bell to me. In fact there are a lot of guys like that in the NBA, although most don't play with the ferocity of a Bowen or a Bell. Are both of them punishing, physical defenders? Yup. Dirty players? Yeah, I guess sometimes, if you want to talk about needing to get in guys' heads with niggling little cheap shots and bullshit ploys. And for Bowen it certainly worked with Steve Nash, the normally kind and unflappable competitor who in the last two games was hollering about being fouled by Bowen when most of the time he wasn't. Was Bowen's knee to Nash's groin a cheap shot? Yup. Was Simmons right to compare it to Amare and Diaw getting suspended to prove the rule about leaving the bench is bullshit? Yes, he was. But to single out Bowen as being somehow much dirtier and worse than others--anybody remember Sam Mitchell playing D for the Wolves? How about John Stockton, Mr. Clutch and Grab, who wasn't above raising his knee when someone was coming into his pick?--was off base.

One thing for sure, you won't hear Jerry Sloan bitching about Bowen (un less he's getting desperate or knows it might work in psychological warfare), because that is exactly the way Sloan played, and his has molded the Jazz in that image. You want t6 watch a physical, borderline dirty player, check out Matt Harpring, who, guaranteed, will receive at least one flagrant foul during this series.

So, what does it all add up to? I can pretty much repeat what I said at the end of my Suns-Spurs preview. (The Suns are a better team than the Jazz, but don't match up quite as well with the Spurs so it evens out.) If the Jazz play their absolute A game it will be a hell of a series that could go 7 games and swing either way, with a slight advantage to the Spurs. But I am guessing that the Spurs will force the Jazz into their A- game and thus the series will result in San Antonio taking it in 5 or 6 games.

If there is one team among the NBA's likely four semifinalists that is flying beneath the radar, it is the Cleveland Cavaliers. That the Cavs are unbeaten is six playoff games thus far is undercut by the reality that they have yet to face even a mediocre low-post presence among Washington and New Jersey.

Is Cleveland playing stellar defense or is the competition just that bad? Obviously both. Ever since Cavs coach Mike Brown inserted Aleksander Pavlovich into the starting lineup alongside Larry Hughes, the team is 28-7. Pavlovich, Hughes and LeBron James are all lanky and athletic, an ideal trio for perimeter rotations. Underneath, Cleveland has a bona fide 7-footer in Z Ilgauskas and a banger with a bit of a nasty streak in Drew Gooden. In other words, they sport the best blend of ingredients for disrupting opposing offenses. For the playoffs they are allowing just .421 FG% and less than 90 points per game.

But Washington without Arenas and Butler may have been the worst playoff team in a decade and for a playoff-tested, supposedly veteran team, New Jersey certainly is playing stupidly. Riddle me this: Why does the team with the most poised point guard in the East, Jason Kidd, decide twice in a row that the best way to beat the Cavs on the road in crunchtime is simply to dump the ball off to Vince Carter, one of the worst on-court "leaders" this side of Antoine Walker?

On the Nets website, the lead graphic is a picture of LeBron and Vinsanity in face to face profile like the classic boxing posters. Promoting this kind of idiotic comepetitive equivalence is why the Nets deserve to get swept this series. Everyone knew they'd be roasted on the boards, and they have been. But in the first two games, they've also been tied with less than 10 minutes to go in the game, only to decide that the way to counter Cleveland letting LeBron take over their offense is to let Carter hog the ball. Bad, bad idea. Pavlovic has done a nice job on Carter, who despite shooting 35 percent has more than twice as many shots, 49, in two games, than anyone on his team--and four more than LeBron! Meanwhile, a guy by the name of Richard Jefferson is canning 61 percent of his field goals and might be the beneficiary of some nifty Kidd dishes if someone, maybe clueless Nets coach Lawrence Frank, could pry the ball out of the hands of Carter, who just happens to be playing for a new contract.

As for the other NBA playoff series, my pick of the Bulls in 5 or 6, was, eh, just a little off thus far. Mucho credit to the Pistons, who have put together two displays of absolutely superlative team basketball. I forget exactly how good shooting guard Rip Hamilton is, specifically what a tough matchup he is, being 6-7, very quick, crafty at cutting around picks and with a deadly accurate, rapid-fire release. The key to the series in my estimation has been Scott Skiles barely bothering to watch Ben Gordon get embarrassed trying to guard Hamilton, throwing his best perimeter guy, Kirk Hinrich, on him instead. But this has backfired because Hamilton is too quick and crafty and, let's face it, mentally tough for even Hinrich to have had much effect on him thus far; meanwhile Chauncey Billups is treating Gordon as his little play-toy on their matchup. The blame falls on Gordon, who simply hasn't invested the time and energy commitment necessary to become a quality defender, a fact the Bulls have been able to camouflage until running into a team with three quality scorer-passers at the 1, 2 and 3. If I'm Skiles, I put Hinrich on Billups and try to nip Detroit's offense in the bud. If Gordon is getting abused early and not exerting payback at the other end with a barrage of buckets, I'd yank him and let Sefolosha get the burn.

I'd also start small with Nocioni at the 4 instead of PJ Brown, and when Flip Saunders subs in Jason Maxiell, match him up with PJ with the instructions to get very physical. That Maxiell has been able to physically intimidate the Bulls during his stints on the court has been the most disappointing aspect of this entire series. And yes, I know Nocioni has also been a pathetic bundle of nerves is games one and two, and am not entirely sure any of this will deter Detroit rolling in 4 or 5. It just would be less aggravating for Bulls gans if their team decided to show up for a change rather than continue patting themselves on the back for their Miami sweep.

I fully expected the Suns to win last night, and turned the set off a little after halftime. I'm not sure Kurt Thomas for Boris Diaw is the magic potion Phoenix needs to overcome their nemesis. If both teams play up to their capability, the Spurs win, simply because they match up so well with the Suns. Phoenix just has to hold up their end of the bargain--Nash and Barbosa are dervishes, Bell the irritant, Stoudamire the grease in the paint and Marion as superglue--and hope that Finley and Horry miss their baseline treys, Duncan gets in early foul trouble and keeps clanging his free throws, and, most of all, that Gregg Popovich keeps thinking Jacque Vaughn has any value whatsoever.

Speaking of backup point guards, Dee Brown's quality stint after Deron Williams picked up five fouls was the hands-down difference in Utah's clutch victory over Golden State the other night. I was very impressed with the various combination double and triple teams that Don Nelson came up with to defend Carlos Boozer in the paint--it helps explain Dirk Nowitzki's woes--but they still couldn't keep Boozer off the offensive glass. Mehmet is money on big shots, the Kirilenko-Harpring combo is a dream duo at the 3, and Deron Williams is ready to take his place among the top 3 point guards in the league. Judging from the way Golden State played, they will need all of that to overcome the Warriors, especially given the home court advantage in Oakland.

With all this going on, who has time for baseball? Still, there are two things related to America's erstwhile pasttime that deserve notice. One was Twins' GM Terry Ryan's statement in the paper today that landing or promoting another power hitter is not nearly as much of a priority for his homer-starved ballclub as ensuring outs with quality pitching and defense. The way you establish and maintain an identity for your franchise is by sticking to your philosophy under the most adversarial circumstances. Do the Twins have the absolute worst offense of any MLB club from the three positions played on the left of the diamond (3B, SS, LF)? Yup. Have they trotted out a batting order in May that lists 7 of the 9 players without a homer? Yup. Is Terry Ryan going to make major moves to address this situation? Nope. Not unless it will upgrade the defense and not hurt the pitching along the way.

Another Terry Ryan dictum is not to overpay, even for quality hurlers and fielders. Instead, he trusts his scouts to find gems in the rough, and his coaches to smooth them into value-added performers. The second-guessers and critics were all clearing their throats at the beginning of the season, eager to rip Ryan's decision to go with three question marks in the starting rotation--Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Silva, and Sydney Ponson. Well, let's see how that has turned out thus far. Ortiz is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Silva is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings. Ponson is 2-4 with a dreadful 6.42 ERA in 33 and 2/3 innings. So far, Ryan is two out of three on his gambles, while Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey stay down in the minors not accumulating precious MLB service that would hasten their arbitration and free agency.

Now let's look at what three of the Twins American League rivals have paid for pitching. The Red Sox shelled out $51 million for the right to pay Dice Matsuzaka $6.3 million this year. His record thus far: 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 38 innings. The Blue Jays are paying AJ Burnett $13.2 million this year and thus far he is 2-3 with a 5.09 ERA. And the Yankees are paying Roger Clemens $45 million in the hopes that he'll be ready to throw a pitch that counts by June. Total cost of Ryan's investment this year in Ortiz, Silva, and Ponson? $8.4 million.

All that said, the team with the best record in all of baseball is currently toiling less than 400 miles away, in Milwaukee. Ever since the Brewers finally rid themselves of the toxic, excreble Selig clan, they have been shrewdly investing in their future and it is finally beginning to pay off. In Prince Fielder (1B), Rickie Weeks (2b) and JJ Hardy (SS), the club has burgeoning stars at 3/4 of their infield positions and none of them are older than 24. When healthy, Ben Sheets is a legitimate ace, but right now he'd have to be rated the 4th best starter in the rotation, behind last year's World Series star Jeff Suppan (5-2, 2.63), underrated, speed-switching lefty Chris Capuano (5-0, 2.31) and surprising fifth starter Claudio Vargas (3-0, 2.89). Throw in innings-eating ground ball pitcher David Bush (3-3, 5.73) and that's a formidable rotation. Suppan, while long in the tooth, seems to be improving with age at 32. Vargas is 29, Sheets and Capuano 28, and Bush 27. Finally, the bullpen has fallen together beautifully, with Matt Wise and former closer Derrek Turnbow quality setup men, Carlos Villenuva a very good middle man, and closer Francisco Cordero unscored upon until his last appearance. The only flaw is that all are righties--veteran Brian Shouse is the lone southpaw in the pen.

Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino are a bad joke at third, the consequence of Corey Koskie's constant nausea and scary loss of equilibrium after a concussion. And the outfield isn't great, with the defensively challenged but power-hitting Bill Hall in center, and the very tall and promising Corey Hart and veteran Kevin Mench platooning with longtime Brewer and lefty-swinging Geoff Jenkins at the corner spots. (Although Tony Gwynn Jr. is destined to be more than just a good pinch-hitter by the end of the season.) Last but not least, the clutch-hitting Johnny Estrada was a masterful acquisition from Arizona as the everyday catcher. It's a young, exciting team currently boasting a 23-10 record in the eminently winnable NL Central. If you're interested in outdoor baseball, it's worth a day's drive to watch them.