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Warning Track Power - Baseball by Brad Zellar

The Latest Installment Of The Good News-Bad News Bears

Submitted by Brad Zellar on Monday, July 30, 2007

If this shit keeps up I'm going to initiate a class action lawsuit against the Twins on behalf of all the whiplash victims in Twins Territory.

I go away for a week on the heels of a nice little rebound series against the Angels (the Twins had won the first two games when I hit the road for a cabin in Vermont), and the next time I had an opportunity to look they'd dropped five straight.

That was bad news.

On my way back they turned around and won the last two games of the Cleveland series.

That was good news, and when I finally got a chance to investigate further I discovered that while the Twins were going 8-8 in the first two-and-a-half weeks out of the break, Detroit was going 8-10 and losing four in a row, while Cleveland was 8-9 and losing three-of-four to Boston and two-of-three to the Twins. Which meant that as I was getting settled back in at my sweltering apartment in south Minneapolis, Minnesota was seven games back in the Central, having finally, almost miraculously, managed to pick up two games in the standings in two days.

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That was more good news, no?

And now the Royals --against whom the Twins have thirteen remaining games-- are coming to town for four games. That would have been good news a couple months ago, but at the moment it could go either way. The Royals are vastly improved, and have now won four straight and nine-of-sixteen since the break. They're also 3-2 against the Twins thus far.

The rest of the way the Twins will face division opponents 35 times (besides the aforementioned thirteen against KC, they have ten games vs. Cleveland, and six against both Detroit and Chicago). They're 16-21 against Central clubs to this point, so obviously they're going to have to perform a whole lot better.

More bad news: the Twins have averaged just 3.38 runs a game since the break. Despite being respectable (and in many instances more than respectable) the starting pitchers are 4-7 during that same stretch --Matt Garza, for instance, has a 1.96 ERA in three starts, but has an 0-2 record to show for it.

And as of this moment --with the trade deadline clock approaching the 24-hour mark-- there has been no solid indication that any sort of move is imminent.

And that also is bad news, because with the exception of Justin Morneau, Luis Castillo, and (egad!) Jason Tyner, the Twins offense has been brutal. Torii Hunter is hitting just .224 in the second half, and even Joe Mauer is struggling to the point where it might be time to start talking about a sophomore slump.

I've been out of commission for a week, so I haven't yet caught up on any of the local scuttlebutt, but I can't conceive of anything short of a blockbuster trade that would either raise my blood pressure or significantly improve the Twins' chances the rest of the way.

A Strange Team, No?

Submitted by Brad Zellar on Saturday, July 21, 2007

And pretty tough, all things considered. On the heels of losing three straight to the first-place Tigers, Michael Cuddyer, who was 11-for-21 coming out of the break, goes on the DL, and the Twins come right back and take two straight from the West-leading Angels.

Post break: four straight wins, three straight losses, two straight wins. The pitching staff has given up more than three runs just twice in nine games.

I'm done trying to figure it out, frankly.

The Detroit series was painful, and pretty much everybody --myself included-- was ready to write off the team and the season. It still doesn't look good, of course, but you have to admire the way the Twins have responded, and, regardless of whether Terry Ryan makes any moves, I don't think this is a team that's going to roll over.

I'm headed out of town for a week, and likely won't have much chance to check in from the road, but if the opportunity presents itself I'll throw up a post.

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Disgusted: Toast On A Rollercoaster

Submitted by Brad Zellar on Thursday, July 19, 2007

How many runners can one team strand? How many decent --and even great-- pitching performances can one team waste? How does a team that scored 32 runs in a doubleheader in Chicago turn around and manage just 24 runs in six games coming out of the All Star break?

I'll be good and damned if I know.

In case you're not paying close attention, that's five straight one-run games, and three straight one-run losses.

This is the fucking American League, dammit. Get a real DH.

It's all strictly for entertainment purposes the rest of the way. Let's see the Twins prove me wrong.

If you're interested in more on this sorry impasse, go over and check out my conversation with Britt Robson and David Brauer at On the Ball. We go into the morass in a bit more detail there.

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Game One: Detroit At The Dome

Submitted by Brad Zellar on Wednesday, July 18, 2007

I ran my finger down the schedule --I was pissed off, and in a hurry-- and if I'm not mistaken the Twins have now been shutout eight times this season. Three of those have been 1-0 games, two were 2-0, two 3-0. and one 8-0.

So, basically if the Twins could have managed any sort of borderline Major League production in those games they very well could have won at least six, and maybe seven, of them. In seven of the eight the starting pitching certainly did its job, at any rate, and gave the team every opportunity to get a win.

That's all hindsight, of course, which is worthless, but the ugly truth hurts all the more in the harsh light of day. This team has been so close all year to being a very good team, but time and again they've pulled disappearing acts that too closely resembled last night's performance.

I hate the sacrifice bunt, particularly when you're looking at a 1-0 deficit, but last night, with Lew Ford on first, nobody out, and Nick Punto and his .209 average at the plate in the eighth, it made a certain kind of sense. It also would have made a certain kind of sense to send Johan Santana up there as a pinch hitter, because Punto could not get the bunt down. He couldn't even come close, and managed foul squibs at the first two pitches he offered at.

Punto's a fine defensive player, and a guy who's very much in the mold of the kind of players the organization loves, but if he, with his increasingly limited ability to help the team offensively, can't lay down a freaking sacrifice bunt he doesn't belong in the lineup.

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He flew out to right and left Ford standing at first, which allowed Luis Castillo to ground into a double play in the next at bat.

When a team loses 1-0 there's obviously plenty of blame to go around, but that inning was a microcosm for Punto's season to date, and was a perfect symbol of the team's maddening inability to manufacture runs when they most need them.

A Damn Fine Product, Come What May: The Golden Years

Submitted by Brad Zellar on Monday, July 16, 2007

Remember the Dark Ages?

I sure do.

Man, do I ever, and, holy shit, were they ever painful.

Remember 1996, the season that began with the announcement of Kirby Puckett's forced retirement? That team went 78-84 (not that bad, really, all things considered), but the pitching staff had an ERA of 5.28, the third straight year the Twins had an earned run average above 5.00. No Twin hit 20 home runs --Marty Cordova was the club leader with 16. Cordova also somehow found a way to drive in 111, and Paul Molitor drove in 113. A lot of that had to do with the continued presence of Chuck Knoblauch in the lineup. Knoblauch scored 140 runs in '06, and three other guys scored more than 90 (Molitor, Cordova,and Rich Becker).

Yeah, Rich Becker. Remember him? The guy actually hit .291 that year, with 31 doubles, four triples, 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, 92 runs, and 71 RBI.

Frankie Rodriguez led the staff with 13 wins (13-14, 5.04 ERA). Brad Radke went 11-16 (4.46).

The Twins were even worse in 1997 (68-94), despite the fact that Radke won 20 games. They still had Molitor (.305 BA and 89 RBI) and Knoblauch (117 runs), though, so they were at least capable of impersonating a Major League team on some nights.

Molitor was still around in 1998, but he was playing out the string (.281, 75 R, 69 RBI). Knoblauch was gone. Matt Lawton had a little breakout year with 36 doubles and 21 home runs. Todd Walker hit .316 and had 41 doubles. The pitching was atrocious: Radke, at 12-14, was the only guy on the staff to reach double digits in victories. Latroy Hawkins went 7-14, Eric Milton 8-14, Bob Tewksbury 7-13.

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Yet somehow the Twins were even worse in 1999 (63-97). Ron Coomer was an All Star, and Justin Morneau had more home runs and RBI at the break this year than Coomer had all season (16 and 65). Cordova led the team with 70 RBI. Not one starter had a winning record, all five finished with double-digit losses, and Radke was again the leader in victories (at 12-14). Nobody came even remotely close to scoring or driving in 100 runs.

Nobody scored or drove in 100 runs in 2000, either. Nobody hit 20 home runs. Radke won 13 games to lead the staff, and the Twins finished at 69-93.

You get the point. If you were around, you remember all too well how bad this team was, and in how many ways, and for how long. It really was brutal. Every year the Twins somehow seemed to find a way to be even worse. Eight straight losing seasons.

We're spoiled now. Six straight winning seasons, four Central Division titles. There are just four players (Cuddyer, Hunter, Rincon, and Santana, and Cuddyer and Rincon were just getting their feet wet) remaining from the 2002 squad that won that first title.

As frustrating as this team can sometimes be --and I guess you have to keep in mind that every year during this recent run the Twins have been frustrating intermittently, or even for prolonged stretches-- it really is nice once in a while to step back, to flip through some old scorebooks from those dark ages, and to recognize how good we have it right now.

Once upon a time we had to make due with guys like this: Dan Masteller, Scott Stahoviak, Lenny Webster, Willie Banks, Alex Cole, Carlos Pulido, Matt Walbeck, Pat Mahomes, Rich Robertson, Scott Klingenbeck, Dan Serafini, Scott Aldred, Joe Mays, and Doug Mientkiewicz.

Now we have Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, Carlos Silva, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Luis Castillo.

Hell, Jason Tyner and Lew Ford would have played 150 games for some of those late '90s teams.

Actually, imagine this, if you can: Ford played 154 games and got 569 at bats with the 2004 club that won 92 games.

It boggles the mind.

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